BlogKeys to win the Sony on Sunday

Who will win at Waialae

For the second week in a row Jimmy Walker will have a chance of winning his fourth PGA Tour title.   Walker, which had a share of the lead going into the final round last week at Kapalua, is back on top thanks to a third round 62.  Walker took advantage of a perfect day of scoring with very little wind as his putter was blazing hot as he only took 22 putts for the day.  Hard to believe that Walkers round included two bogeys on the 2nd and 17th holes.  He shot 30 on the back with only two pars as he birdied four of his last five holes.  Walker one-putted his last 11 holes as he made a total of 143 feet for the day.

Walker is two ahead of Matt Kuchar who shot 68 and three ahead of Brian Harman and Troy Merritt.  Going into Sunday’s round there is only six players within five shots of Walker.

Walker was in great position last week but let nerves get the best of him, could that happen again?  Walker who turned 36 on Friday, has found most of his good fortune in golf at a late age.  It took Walker eight years and 187 tournaments before he claimed his first title at the 2013 Frys.com Open so after years of struggling it makes sense that he would be nervous on the back nine in his final rounds.  Last week after making five birdies in his first ten holes the birdie ended and was replaced with shaky putting in which he missed several putts inside of ten feet.  Now this wasn’t the first time that he had problems in the final round, at Pebble Beach and the AT&T in February of 2014 Walker had a tough back nine, but he had such a big lead that it didn’t matter as he held on to win.

You didn’t answer the question, could nerves get the best of Walker again?  Absolutely, just look at why.  This is only the third time Walker goes into the final round with the lead or share of.  In the previous events he led, Walker shot a back nine 37 at Kapalua and a final nine 39 at Pebble Beach last year.  The good news is that on Walker’s final nine in winning at Sony last year he shot 30.  But that was totally different circumstances because he was behind and fighting hard to play catchup.

So what does that mean for Walker on Sunday?  Really feel that if Walker is leading or close, those demons may return.  Now with the experience of last week fresh in his mind he could find the fortitude to win, but my gut tells me that it would probably be best for Walker to be behind instead of leading.  Another thing that could hamper Walker is the fact that he shot 62 on Saturday, and it’s always hard to post two great rounds in a row.

So if not Walker who will win?  I really like Matt Kuchar. Making his 12th start at the Sony Open; Kuchar’s name near the top of the leaderboard is not a big surprise. In his last three starts of 2011, 2013, and 2014, Kuchar finished T5, T5 and T8, respectively.  In his last 14 rounds, Kuchar has been under par 12 times and is 52 under par.  In his last 14 rounds at Waialae, he has shot 63 twice, 65 three times and 66 three times.  Kuchar shot 68 on Saturday that sets him up for a good round on Sunday.  In looking at Kuchar’s stats it’s easy to see why he has played well, good putting.  He had 24 putts on Thursday, 28 on Friday and 29 Saturday.  For the week he has made a total of just over 306 feet of putts, second best behind Walker.

So what happens if Walker and Kuchar stumble?  I know the last couple of years have seen many first timers that you would have never though winning, getting that victory.  Just in 2015 we saw Ben Martin win in Las Vegas, Robert Streb at McGladrey and Nick Taylor at Sanderson Farms.  So we shouldn’t be surprised to see either Brian Harman, Troy Merritt, or Justin Thomas do it.  Guess that Harman has been they’re winning at John Deere last summer.  Troy Merritt has won on the Web.Com tour and came close at FedEx St. Jude so I guess he can do it.  The same with Justin Thomas, he won the 2014 Nationwide Children’s Championship on the Web.Com Tour and finished T4th at the Sanderson Farms Championship in November, so anything is possible.

What about Tim Clark?  He is in the right position to pounce, after rounds of 65-65 he shot 68 on Saturday.  He wasn’t very consistent making three bogeys, but I have to think that he will be a favorite, despite being four back.  At the Tour Championship he was three back of Lee Westwood going into the final round, shot 67 to win for the first time.  I strongly feel that Clark is looking for a great season this year because with his disability of not being able to turn his hands, having to not stick the putter against his stomach will make the game too hard for him.  So he knows that he has to make his money now, and I can see him play very well.

Anybody else?  Sunday will be another great day with the lack of win so you never know whether someone has a 62, 61, 60, and even a 59 in him.  We saw Justin Thomas shot 61 on Friday.  We have also seen six, 62s shot.  Anyone who is eight shots back has a chance, to think it’s not out of the question if someone at 10 under or better shooting 61 to win.

Below is a list of the top-39 players on the leader board going to 7 under which is 9 shots back of Jimmy Walker