BlogHumana Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

This week and next we have a couple of the tour’s warhorses making their 2015 starts.  Next week we will see Tiger Woods for the first time during this week it’s Phil Mickelson.  The good news on Phil, he has spent his time off since the Ryder Cup with a trainer in a four-day-a-week program.  This is helping him get lighter and develop more core strength that will increase ball speed.  He realized how poor his 2014 season was, since turning pro he only had his second winless season (2003 & 1999).  He has been working with Callaway and has some new weapons and recently has worked on his game with Butch Harman.

With the good news is a bit of bad news, for the first time since 1997 he will miss the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-am.  He is taking that week off along with the next at the Northern Trust Open to spend time with his kids who have their spring breaks during that time.  One thing that does need mentioning, the last year that Mickelson didn’t win was in 2003.  After that year, he worked hard on his game and got his body in shape.  His first event of 2004 was the Humana in which he won, followed by a win at the Masters in April.  So as we have said many a time about Phil, you just don’t know what to expect from him.

Normally, we would be seriously concern when a sponsor leaves a tournament, but the health of the Humana Challenge is still good despite Humana taking an early out of their contract.  Just like any other organization, new management came in and didn’t make this event a priority.  As we said normally this would be hard, but the event is in partnership with the Clinton Foundation, which will continue its involvement in the future.  With the help of former president Bill Clinton along with the PGA Tour a sponsor will be found who knows maybe one has already been found.

This is a far cry from the years when this event was on life support. After 2011, the odds on it being played another year was 50/50.  The folks who ran the event were running it into the ground insisting keeping the event at 90 holes, and trying to make it a memorial for Bob Hope who died in 2003.  They also tried to save some money by moving to a course they owned, a course that had high winds and one not popular by the players.  Need we say that players weren’t happy, and it became hard getting marquee names as in 2010 the best-ranked player in the field was #37 Mike Weir.  After Chrysler left in 2009 the event wasn’t sponsored in 2010 or 2011.  Demographically the event didn’t offer companies the ingredients to buy in because the event and the community cater to older folks.  Since most companies are looking for folks under 40 who spend a lot, this was a problem.  For most the task looked bad as Hope officials couldn’t find a sponsor on their own but Finchem realized that the location and the weather could offer different opportunities for the right company.  That company was Humana who gives the message of better living habits, since its partnership was a success it should be easier this time around to find another partner.  Along with new sponsors, two new courses need to be found.  The two courses at PGA West, the Palmer private, which has been on the Rota since 1988 along with the Nicklaus private will not return.  Rumor has it that the TPC Stadium Course at PGA West could be the home course next year; it did host the tournament in 1991.

Course information:

A unique event as three courses are used.

• Arnold Palmer Private Course at PGA West is the home course, will hold one round during the first three days and host Sunday action:
• 6,950 yards     Par 36-36–72
• Course has a 74.6 rating and slope rating of 140 from the championship tees
• Course is private and not open to the public.
• The course was designed by Arnold Palmer and was opened in 1987

Course has been a part of the Humana since 1988 (wasn’t used in 1995, ’96 & ’97).  It has been the host club 14 of the last 24 years that it’s been on the Rota.  This will be the seventh straight year it’s the host course. The Palmer Course at PGA West will go down in history as the site of the lowest final round in golf.  David Duval shot 59 to win the Hope in 1999 and although many may think that the course is easy, it isn’t.  Duval’s round was probably one of the greatest rounds because he accomplished it on a course that shouldn’t have a sub-60 round.  If there is a weakness in this course, it’s the par 5s.  The heart of the course is it’s par 4s, which is long and plays tough with five of them having water hazards on them.

The average green size at the Palmer course is 5,500 square feet, and the course has 97 bunkers.  Water comes into play on ten of the 18 holes.

Scoring average of the Palmer private compared to other courses that hold events on the PGA Tour:

• 2014 – 68.962 average, 2nd easiest of 48 courses used for year
• 2013 – 68.924 average, 2nd easiest of 43 courses used for year
• 2012 – 69.876 average, 4th easiest of 49 courses used for year
• 2011 – 69.090 average, 2nd easiest of 51 courses used for year
• 2010 – 69.299 average, 3rd easiest of 52 courses used for year
• 2009 – 68.496 average, 3rd easiest of 51 courses used for year

Other courses used in the Rota:

• La Quinta C.C.
• La Quinta, Calif.
• 7,060 yards     Par 36-36–72
• Course has a 74.2 rating and slope rating of 136 from the championship tees
• Course is private and not open to the public

Course was designed by Billy Bell and Lawrence Hughes and was opened in 1959.  In 1999, Robert Muir Graves and Damian Pascuzzo came in, rebuilt all the greens, bunkers, and tees.  He has also taken all the water hazards on the course and made them all come into play. The flagpole at the first tee is the official flagpole from the 1960 Winter Olympics at Squaw Valley. It was given to La Quinta Country Club by the Novotny family in memory of Frank Capra.

The average green size at La Quinta is 5,500 square feet, and the course has 101 bunkers.  There are five water hazards on the course with eight holes being effected.  The course was first used as a Humana course in 1964 and has been a part of 40 of the 52 Humana’s and historically been the hardest of the courses used.  It was the host course in 1970, 1977,1980, and 1983.

Scoring average of the La Quinta course compared to other courses that hold events on the PGA Tour:

• 2014 – 69.768 average, 4th easiest of 48 courses used for year
• 2013 – 69.487 average, 3rd easiest of 43 courses used for year
• 2012 – 70.678 average, 41st hardest of 49 courses used for year
• 2011 – 70.024 average, 43rd hardest of 51 courses used for year
• 2010 – 69.969 average, 47th hardest of 52 courses used for year

• PGA West Jack Nicklaus Private
• La Quinta, Calif.
• 6,924 yards     Par 36-36–72
• Course has a 74.3 rating and slope rating of 146 from the championship tees
• Course is private and not open to the public.

The course first went on the Rota in 2009. PGA West Jack Nicklaus Private, designed to host the 1991 Ryder Cup, the event was ultimately moved to The Ocean Course at Kiawah Island.  From back tees the course is only 6,951 but still tough with water coming into play on 7 holes.

Scoring average of the Nicklaus private compared to other courses that hold events on the PGA Tour:

• 2014 – 68.819 average, easiest of 48 courses used for year
• 2013 – 68.000 average, easiest of 43 courses used for year
• 2012 – 69.193 average, easiest of 49 courses used for year
• 2011 – 69.214 average, 3rd easiest of 51 courses used for year
• 2010 – 68.992 average, 2nd easiest of 52 courses used for year
• 2009 – 66.984 average, easiest of 51 courses used for year

Golf’s DL injury report

• Looks like Kevin Stadler’s wrist could be more serious with him pulling out the Humana.  He was on the original entry list and took himself off late last week.  He has played the Humana seven times since 2005 so it was an event he likes to play.  Now, he is still on the entry list of next week’s Waste Management Phoenix Open, which he is the defending champion.  Rumors have him not playing as he looks to try to rest the stress fracture.
• Charlie Beljan is a hero in a lot of people’s minds.  He is the man who plays on tour with sever panic attacks.  He overcame his problem at the 2012 Children’s Miracle Network Classic at Disney by winning.  In the fall events, he was struggling toward the end of the year, deciding at the last minute not to play at the McGladrey and then withdrawing after one round at Mayakoba.  At the time, he didn’t give any reason for the time off, but with the time off he is returning to play at the Humana.  Last year he finished T9th in this event, his best finish in 2014.
• Blake Adams returns for the first time since the Valspar Championship with a bit of Déjà vu.  In 2013, he started at the Humana, missed the cut and then withdrew from the Farmers Insurance Open with a painful hip which he had surgery on the left-hip.  He didn’t play the rest of 2013.  He came back at the Frys.Com, but things just weren’t right, after five months of pain again he took more time off.  He again underwent surgery to replace his left hip in July and after rehabbing is ready to go again this week.  He will have 16 starts on a medical extension to collect $497,044 or 277.737 FedExCup points to retain his status on the tour.  Even with the limited play the last two years, one he’s been able to do is playing in the Humana, he has played in it every year since going on tour in 2010.
• Robert Allenby has just withdrawn from the Humana. Not really injuried we think, Allenby says that his doctor (could that be Dr. Finchem?) told him to take the week off.  Says he got mugged and kidnapped over the weekend in Hawaii, his face looked like he was beaten up.  The problem is that his story of being kidnapped seems weak and there is more to this story than meets the sniff test.  Don’t be surprise to see him with some time off to think about what really happened in Hawaii.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Humana Challenge:

Key stat for the winner:

Most important stat is how many birdies are allowed on the three courses.  Last year players teed it up on two of the four rounds at PGA West/Palmer and 1,202 birdies, and 54 eagles were made.  That is quite a bit and if you add up the other two courses that were used for a total of 2,658 birdies and 126 eagles, most of any event on tour.  Going a step further, of the winners of the last five years, they have played 38.9% of their holes under par (149 birdies, 5 eagles over 396 holes) which means that the winners birdied almost 4 holes for every 10 played at the Humana.  So a key stat, to look at for this week, is Par Breakers on tour. Of the top-ten on that list, nobody in the top-ten is in the Humana field.  The highest rank players at the Humana is #11 Bryce Molder, #12 Tony Finau and #18 Ryan Moore.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

• 2014 champion Patrick Reed was 28 under par.  In the history of the tour, Ernie Els 31 under par at the 2003 Hyundai is the lowest under par total, but that was played on a par 73 course. The second best total for 72 hole events is Reed’s 28 under par score, tied with four others.  Taking this a step further, of the 84 players who finished 72 holes, all of them were under par for a 1,322 under par total.  If you average that by the 84 players, the average to par score was 15.74 under which would have won 27 of the 43 stroke play events played on the PGA Tour in 2014.
• This week the pros will play over three courses in four days, quite a learning scale with very little time to prepare.  Making it even harder for those coming from Hawaii unless they took red-eyes on Sunday Night or missed the cut; they won’t get to start practicing until Tuesday.  Still it’s better than the days when this event was played over five days.
• Another problem for the pros, the first three days they play with amateurs.  So patient is needed to tolerate those five plus hour rounds.  So look for experience players to do well, those with a long track record at the Humana should be your favorites. Since 1984, the champion has averaged winning in his 7th start. Last year was a bit strange because Patrick Reed won in only his second start.  In 2013, Brian Gay won on his 12th Humana start while 2012 winner Mark Wilson was making his fourth start when he won.  Experience is a must in this event.  Yes Jhonathan Vegas won the first time around in 2011 and Charley Hoffman in 2007 was the first player to make his Hope debut a victory since Donnie Hammond did it in 1986.  Still consider Hoffman, Vegas, and Reed are exceptions to the rule.
• As we said before the winner will have to make lots of birdies and eagles to win. When it was played over 90 holes, Phil Mickelson made 37 birdies in 2004 while Justin Leonard made 33 in 2005.   D.J. Trahan made 35 in 2008 along with Pat Perez in 2009,  Bill Haas made 34 in 2010 and Jhonathan Vegas made 34 in 2011.  When the event changed to 72 holes in 2012, Mark Wilson made 24 birdies while Brian Gay made 27 in 2013  Last year Patrick Reed went crazy with 30 birdies, along with two eagles. So to win they will have to birdie at least 3 out of every ten holes played.
• Look at someone who destroys the par 5s.  The last 14 winners have averaged 15 under on them with Phil Mickelson playing them in 14 under in 2002.  Mike Weir played them in 15 under in 2003 and Phil Mickelson played them in 12 under in 2004.  Justin Leonard played them in 10 under in 2005, Chad Campbell played them in 18 under in 2006, Charley Hoffman played them in 15 under in 2007 while D.J. Trahan was 13 under on them with Pat Perez setting the record for playing them in 19 under in 2009.  Bill Haas played them in 16 under in 2010 while Jhonathan Vegas was 11 under the last year it was held at 90 holes.  In 2012, Mark Wilson was 15 under while Brian Gay was 10 under in 2013.  Last year Patrick Reed was 14 under on them.
• Look for scores to go even lower this year.  That’s because the weather will be picture perfect, in the mid-70s each day and hardy any wind.  Pros love that and with pins in more assessable positions because of the amateurs playing, scores will go low. Again, not to sound like a broken record but someone could go below 60 this week.