BlogWho will win Humana on Sunday

Who will win this week?

In watching the third round of the Humana, you sensed that it could possibly be Matt Kuchar’s week.  He was safely in the lead in a tournament in which took many birdies to win.  With just four holes left in the third round, Kuchar had played 50 holes, making an eagle and 19 birdies.  So that’s the pace that in past has won this tournament, making four birdies for every four holes you play.  So wisdom had it that with one par 5 left in the final four holes he would make that one birdie every four holes and be at 20 under and on top of the leaderboard.  But all of a sudden things drastically went wrong, instead of playing those last four holes in one under, Kuchar made bogeys on three of the four to finish up at 16 under.  In a way it was like last Sunday at the Sony when he had a good chance of winning, only to play his final 18 holes with a bogey and 17 pars.

So like that the tournament drastically changed as Erik Compton, Bill Haas, Justin Thomas and Michael Putnam finished at 17 under to lead.  Sunday could prove to be one giant battle as 30 players behind the leaders are within five of the lead that means someone needs a 64 or 65 to capture this title.

So with four tied for the lead and four others within one who has the advantage?  Frankly nobody, it’s going to come down to who will play the best on Sunday.  This is a tournament that you have to go low in, it took an 8 under par total just to make the cut.  This week we have seen one 61 and five rounds of 63 so we know that a low round is out there.   One thing is that the final round will be played at the Palmer Private course at PGA West that has had the highest scoring average of 70.368.  But with another great day of weather look for a lot of low scores.

Any surprises out there?  Yes a couple, first 2010 champion Bill Haas who fractured his left wrist falling down some stairs in April and who has played and practiced very little the last three months.  Despite the lack of reps, you wouldn’t know it with his first three rounds in which he only made a single bogey and 18 birdies.  He has played near flawless in this event, since 2010 in 24 rounds he hasn’t shot higher than a 71 and is 112 rounds under par.  But the question, could he shot 64 or 65 on Sunday.  Another surprise could be Justin Thomas who finds himself in contention for the second straight week.  He led the Sony with opening rounds of 67-61, but shot 70-70 over the weekend to finish T6th.  Thomas who is making only his 18th career PGA Tour start also was in contention at the Sanderson Farms Championship last November, finishing T4th.  A solid final round 68 could secure his tour card for 2016 so it will be interesting to see how he plays on Sunday.  Lastly is the good play of Erik Compton, the double transplant phenomenon that is looking to improve upon his runner-up finish at the U.S. Open last June.  We all know the Compton story, but he found some inspiration on Sunday playing with Chad Pfeifer who lost his left leg in Iraq.  Be interesting to see whether it carries over to Sunday.

What about first round leader Michael Putnam?  With rounds of 63-67-69 he could stick around the top of the leaderboard, but he seems to be going backwards with his round on Saturday.  Putnam has struggled since being the leading money winner on the Web.Com Tour in 2013.  In 2014 he only had one top-ten finish and in this year his best finish was T26th at the CIMB Classic.  So the writing could be on the wall, look for him to struggle a bit on Sunday.

So who shouldn’t struggle on Sunday?  I have a funny feeling that Ryan Palmer could be the man.  His week has a rollar-coaster feel to it with rounds of 71-61-68.  His 68 on Saturday was even better when you consider that he played the five par 5s at the Palmer course in even par, including bogeys on 11 and 14.  Palmer has an incredible run at the Humana since 2011.  He did miss the cut in 2012, but in his other three starts finished 2nd (2014), 4th (2011) and T6th (2013).  In those three and this year’s starts in those 16 rounds he is 91 under par so you know he could go low.  In his last two Sunday’s at the Humana he shot 65 in 2013 and 63 last year.  If he could do that in Sunday’s final round he will win.  One other player to watch on Sunday is defending champion Patrick Reed.  He goes into the final round at 14 under, three back and we all know his fire power; he could shoot 63 on Sunday to jump up the leaderboard.

So realistically who has a chance?  There are 15 players at 17, 16, and 14 under.  I really think they are the only ones with a chance because you have to think that out of those 15 one will shot at least 65.  So that takes those at 13 under and worst out of the picture.  I also think that within those 15 someone will shot 63 that will do the deed.

Below is a list of the top-33 players on the leader board going to 12 under which is 5 shots back of the four leaders