BlogPhoenix Open Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

Again we are going to see if Tiger Woods has anything left in him.  Between his personal problems and injuries, Woods has struggled, with the except of 2013 when he won four times.  Since then it’s been nothing but injuries.  The good news is that Tiger is healthy again, he is probably as close to 100% as he has ever been over the course of the last 8 years.  So it’s time to see what he has.

Yes, he won four times in 2013 but they all were weird wins, the kind that he found himself struggling in the final round.  The bottom line, Tiger is healthy, seems happy and with a new coach it’s time to perform.  He is playing this week and next and frankly if he stumbles it’s only going to make it harder.  The important thing is that it’s time to see if Tiger has the eye of a Tiger, does he still have that killer instinct that he had between 1996 and 2009.  We’ve said this before only to find Tiger with some leg or back problem, so there isn’t much in the way of excuses.  Wish I could call this, I like many others want to see a dominate Tiger.  But we all know the realities, time may of passed him by.  In 1980 many said the same about Jack Nicklaus as he had the worst years of his career in 1979.  He bounced back and  won two majors that year and then won the Masters six years later.  So with that we have to think that Tiger will have some left in the tank.

The Tour returns to Phoenix and one of the biggest parties of the year at the Waste Management Phoenix Open.  It may be SuperBowl week with the big game being played less than 25 miles down the road, but they still will pack them in.  Last year 563,008 went through the turnstiles with 189,722 on Saturday alone for what is the biggest party of the year for the PGA Tour.  It seems that they all go over to either the big pavilion that has been a mainstay of the tournament since it started or the 16th hole, golf’s version of the Roman Coliseum.  The 16th hole could be the wackiest place on the PGA Tour.  A combination of true golf fans wanting to see some great golf along with a lot of others that wear out their arms hoisting their favorite adult beverage.  The hole is completely surrounded by bleachers and hospitality tents, giving it that gladiator feel to it.  It’s become such a mainstay that organizers are thinking of just making the façade a permanent fixture and having it stay up year round.

WM Phoenix Open history: It began in 1932 as the Arizona Open and has been played at the TPC of Scottsdale, since 1987.  After the first two years, the event took the name, Phoenix Open in 1935. The only older tournaments on the PGA Tour are; the British Open (1860), U.S. Open (1895), Western Open (1899), Canadian Open (1904), PGA Championship (1916), Texas Open (1922) and the Nissan Open (1926).

Due to lack of local support, the tournament was discontinued after 1935. The tournament was revived thanks to the energy and vision of one man, Bob Goldwater, Sr. who was an avid golfer.  So in 1939, Goldwater’s new fledgling golf tournament was the official rebirth of the Phoenix Open. Goldwater was left with most of the work, he printed the tickets, sold sponsorships and obtained the use of Phoenix Country Club. He even invited a few of his friends to tee it up at the tournament. Those friends just happened to be Bing Crosby, Bob Hope and a golfer by the name of Ben Hogan. “I loved those early years,” said Goldwater. “I look back on those days with a sense of pride mixed with wonderment.” And, yes, after a few more persuasive talks and the success of the 1939 Phoenix Open, The Thunderbirds came around and lent their full support. During that 1939 tournament, a 27-year-old up-and-comer named Byron Nelson won the $700 first prize. Hogan finished second, 12 strokes back, and collected $450. Since then, The Thunderbirds had been a part of the event every year except 1943, when wartime travel restrictions forced a one-year hiatus. The list of professional golfers who have won in Phoenix reads like the golf Hall of Fame: Byron Nelson, Ben Hogan, Jimmy Demaret, Billy Casper, Gene Littler, Arnold Palmer, Jack Nicklaus, Miller Barber, Johnny Miller, Ben Crenshaw, and more recently Lee Janzen, Vijay Singh, Phil Mickelson, Tom Lehman, Mark Calcavecchia and Kenny Perry just to name a few. Over the tournament’s 77 year history, the Open has been known by many names, including the Western Open, the Arizona Open, the Ben Hogan Invitational, the Phoenix Open, the FBR Open and now the Waste Management Phoenix Open. The tournament has been played at Phoenix Country Club, Arizona Country Club and the TPC Scottsdale, which has been the home course of the tournament since 1987. 2015 will mark the 29th consecutive year the tournament has been played at the Stadium Course at the TPC Scottsdale, and it has had a renovation to spruce it up and make it more challenging for the players. Thanks to the most fan-friendly tournament venue on Tour, it attracts the largest galleries of any golf tournament in the world. In fact, compared to the days when the tournament was held at Phoenix Country Club, and the top attendance mark was 186,000 (1986), the event has grown by leaps and bounds. At the 2008 FBR Open, a PGA Tour record 538,356 fans attended the tournament, including 170,802 during Saturday’s third round alone. 2008′s Saturday attendance used to be a single-day PGA Tour record until 2013 when 179,022 fans came out for the third round. The 2014 event set a new attendance record when 563,008 fans came out.  2015 was suppose to be the last year of Waste Management’s six-year sponsorship deal, but they have renewed their commitment and tacked on another ten years and will sponsor the event to at least 2025.

Course information:

• Played at TPC Scottsdale, Scottsdale, Az.
• Par:  71 / Yardage: 7,216
• In 2014, the South course was the 33rd hardest course on the PGA Tour  playing to a 70.644 average.

• The TPC of Scottsdale was designed by Tom Weiskopf and Jay Morrish, with Howard Twitty and Jim Colbert serving as player consultants.  The course opened in 1986 and had some interesting features like desert between the holes and fairways with many plants from the surrounding area. The layout also features mounding for spectators. The course can easily accommodate over 100,000 spectators, last year just over 189,000 showed up for Saturday’s third round.  The average green size is 6,770 square feet, which is a little over the average on the PGA Tour. The course has 72 bunkers and six water hazards.
• Surrounded by spectacular mountain views, the course was designed specifically to host the Phoenix Open, and the aforementioned mounding promises an excellent view to all of the  the 500,000+ in the galleries. Hole No. 16 will always be remembered as the site of Tiger Woods’ hole in one in 1998. Hole No. 17 will be remembered for the first and only hole in one on a par four during a PGA Tour event, which was recorded by Andrew Magee in 2001.
• Major renovations were done since last years event with four greens completely rebuilt while the other 14 resurfaced and reshaped.  45 yards was added, but three holes will play slightly shorter.  Every bunker was redone, in most cases bringing them more into play.  Also, 250 trees were added so the combination of trees and bunkers coming into play off the tee will make the course slightly tighter.  Despite the change average scores may be a bit higher but look for the winning score, which has averaged 22 and a half under par for the last 18 years to stay the same.

Golf’s DL injury report

• Kevin Stadler will not be able to defend his title.  Seems that the stress fracture is more serious than first thought.  He had to withdraw from Hyundai and hasn’t played since.  No real time frame on when he will return has come out.
• Ryan Moore seemed to reinjure his neck last week at the Humana.  It hurt him so much that he didn’t play the third round after shooting 72-77.  He is right now in the field so hopefully he is ok.  Two years ago around this time he had some neck problems, but that only lasted a couple of weeks and hasn’t been a problem since.
• Tim Clark had a tender left elbow at the Sony Open and withdrew from Humana.  He’s not in the field this week in Phoenix, and we will check to see if the elbow is a problem.
• Robert Allenby had some personal problems, and his face is bruised after he fell and hit it on a lava rock at the Sony Open.  We all know of all the stories of what happened, it will be interesting to see if the PGA Tour takes any disciplinary action for his lying to the media and local police about his problems that night.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Waste Management Phoenix Open:

Key stat for the winner:

Those with a hot putter seem to dominate. Other than Vijay Singh’s victory in 2003, Kenny Perry in 2009, Hunter Mahan in 2010, Mark Wilson in 2011, Kyle Stanley in 2012 and Kevin Stadler last year, every winner since 1997 has been in the Top-10 in putting, with eight of the winners being in the top five.  In 2013, Phil Mickelson was T10th in putts with 110, in 2007, Aaron Baddeley led with just 104 putts and was second in putts per greens hit.  Of late there has been a change in the trend, in 2009, Kenny Perry was T3rd in greens hit and T53rd in putting while 2010 Hunter Mahan was 1st in greens hit and T71st in putting.  In 2011, Mark Wilson was 1st in greens hit and T39th in putting, while Kyle Stanley was 3rd in greens hit, but T63rd in putting.  In 2013, Phil Mickelson had the best of both worlds, 1st in greens hit and T10th in putting while last year Stadler was T10th in greens hit and T20th in putts.  No rhyme or reason for the change, still look for a good putter this week.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

One unimportant stat:  The course is in the desert and of the 46 courses on the PGA Tour in 2014 it had the third longest driving average at 301.4 yards.  So common sense would be that the winners are big hitters, that isn’t the case.  Since 1997, only two of the last 18 champions have been in the top-ten of the weekly driving distance stat with seven of them out of the top-25.  In 2005, Phil Mickelson averaged 307.8 per drive and was 12th in the field while in 2006  J.B. Holmes drove it 308.0 yards and was 13th. In 2007, Baddeley followed the trend as he was 15th in driving distance at 296.6. In 2008 Holmes was 13th averaging 302.5 yards, and Kenny Perry was 9th in 2009 with a 311.1 average.  In 2010, Hunter Mahan was T33rd with a 294.3 average while in 2011, Mark Wilson was T68th with a 290.3 average.  In 2012 Kyle Stanley ranked 70th with a 287.6 average, in 2013 Mickelson was T12th with a 298.9 average while last year Kevin Stadler was 23rd with a 309.0 average, so hitting it long doesn’t really help in winning.

Hitting greens has become an important element in winning.  The course in 2014 racked 34th in greens in regulation, but look at how well the winners and runner-ups have done in the last 18 years as 11 of them either led or co-led the stat for the week.

Nine of the last 18 champions have had a Top-10 finish within three weeks before they won the championship, so look for someone that is playing well to win.  In 2009 Kenny Perry finished T6th at Kapalua just three weeks before the Phoenix Open, but Hunter Mahan was not playing well leading up to the 2010 event.  In 2011 Mark Wilson won just two weeks before the event at the Sony Open in Hawaii amd in 2012 Kyle Stanley lost a playoff the week before winning at Phoenix.

Players can’t be afraid of a lot of people watching, considering as many as 100,000 will be in attendance over the weekend.

Players must hit lots of greens and make lots of birdies. In the last 18 years the winners have averaged hitting 69% of the greens and averaged 22.6 birdies for the week.

One last important fact is that birdies have to be made on par 4s.  This is one of those events in which

scoring is lower on the par 4s than the par 5s.  Since 1997, 11  of the 18 champions have done better, last year Kevin Stadler spilt the difference as he played both  the par 5s and the par 4s in 7 under.

In the first three events of 2015 the weather couldn’t be better.  So for the first time we will see rain as the long range forecast shows 90% chance of rain on Friday and 40% on Saturday.  After a nice day on Thursday with temperatures in the high 70s, look for a drop as the high will only be 60 on Friday, 65 on Saturday and 69 on Sunday.