BlogWho will win in Phoenix on Sunday

Who will win on Sunday?

So 24 hours after the world of golf is getting over the fact that Tiger Woods may be regressing as he now finds himself scrambling to make cuts instead of winning, we see a big part of the growth of many on the PGA Tour in the Tiger era.  There are probably 75 regular players on the PGA Tour that can win any week of the year.  There is this elite class of a couple dozen players who seem to get a victory once every couple of years, but do it in a fashion that makes them look like a superstar.  Martin Laird is one of them, and it’s no surprise that he is three ahead going into the final round of the Waste Management Phoenix Open.  Unfortunately for those who try to pick winners on the PGA Tour, Laird isn’t our friend.  That’s because he seems to never leave a calling card on when he is ready to win.  Since joining the PGA Tour in 2008 it seems that he wins every other year, first in 2009 in Las Vegas our of the blue, then in 2011 at the Arnold Palmer and then in 2013 at the Texas Open.  So it only makes sense that he would win again in 2015, oh for those really looking at this streak it started with his win in the Web.Com Tour’s Athens Classic, in 2007.

Laird does very well on the PGA Tour with earnings just under $12 million.  In his 8th year, there was no indication of him knocking on the door for another victory other than finishing T15th last week at the Humana Challenge.  Laird is a transplanted Scotsman who learned the game in Glasgow playing left-handed, then played junior golf at Kirkintilloch Golf Club switching over to the right hand side.  In 2000 at the age of 17 he got a lucky break with the help of the College Prospects of America in getting Laird a scholarship to play for Colorado State.  He moved, lock, stock and with his Scottish kilts to the United States.  Since then it’s been golf in America, after four years he graduated with a degree in marketing.  He turned pro after graduation in 2004, and in his second professional tournament won the 2004 Denver Open.  With that he got to play off and on the Web.Com Tour and with a great 2007 placed 13th on the money list that got him onto the PGA Tour.  Laird is one of the longest hitters on the PGA Tour finishing in the top-20 each year.  But his true value is his consistency in always making the cut and finding a way into the top-25.  Since joining the tour in 2008 he has played in 171 events and has finished in the top-25, 45 times so one in four.

Now we told you he is a Scot who now makes his home in America, but making things even more interesting he makes his home in Phoenix, playing most of his golf just down the road at Estancia and frequently practices at TPC Scottsdale.  So he knows the grounds,  Laird has played in every Phoenix Open since 2008 and except for 2011 when he finished T3rd, has always struggled.

This week Laird has played very consistent golf with rounds of 66-66-68.  The key to his game is in putting, took 24 putts in the first round, 26 on Friday and only 22 on Saturday.  He made putts from all over the place on Saturday, 47 feet on 11 for birdie, 25 footer on 5 to save bogey, 15 feet for birdie at 9 and 13 feet to save par on 12.  On top of those gems, he made five putts from 5 to 9 feet including a 9 footer on 16 for par and another 9 footer at 18 for par.  In looking at Sunday one may wonder if a man like Laird who has regularly finished in the bottom third in putting can keep it up for one final round.  Guys like Laird putting well for three rounds make me think at Lee Trevino’s famous line, “There are two things that won’t last long in this world, dogs chasing cars and pros putting for pars.”  So it’s anyone’s choice on Sunday.

But the big question, can Laird keep it together on Sunday?  As I said before, Laird is a pretty steady player but he may be out of his element.  Three shot lead and doing everything with the putter, if those putts don’t drop on Sunday and he has to rely on the good putting; a three shot lead may not be enough.  In looking historically at the Phoenix Open to see where winners come from it’s interesting to note that only about half of the third round leaders go on to win and that every champion at TPC Scottsdale going back to 1987 has shot in the 60s the final round except for Lee Sanzen in 1993.  So it seems that Laird will probably need a 69 on Sunday to wrap it up.

All that has been written in this story is about Martin Laird, is there anybody near him?  Laird has a three shot lead over Hideki Matsuyama, Brooks Koepka and Zach Johnson.  For back at nine under is Ryan Palmer, Justin Thomas and amateur Jon Rahm.  Five back at 8 under is nine guys led by Bubba Watson and Angel Cabrera. Now if Laird does shot 69 that should eliminate those at 9 and 8 under.  But if Laird has a bad front nine, it’s a wide open ball game.

So what about those at 10 under?  All of them played great on Saturday to get into this position.  Hideki Matsuyama shot the week’s low round of 63, including making birdie on five of his last six holes.  With Matsuyama’s PGA Tour win at the 2014 Memorial Tournament, he entered the final round two strokes behind 54-hole leader Bubba Watson before shooting a final round 69 and prevailing in a playoff over Kevin Na.  But I am always leery of guys that shot low in the third round.  Brooks Koepka also went low in round three with a 64 that included a back nine 30.  Koepka has had to work hard to get onto the PGA Tour and he did so last summer getting a special temporary membership.  He parlayed that into a top-125 finish which got him his tour card for this year.  Koepka worked very hard in 2014, so hard that he found himself burnt out and after playing the Nedbank Challenge on the European Tour in the first week of December, put the clubs away for a full month before starting to play again last week.  So in a way, he is fresh and ready to go.  Lastly, we can’t forget about Zach Johnson who shot 67 in the third round.  Since winning at Kapalua at the start of 2014, he has been inconsistent.  Yes he was the runner-up at the John Deere and T3rd last year at the Humana, but he just hasn’t been the same since the John Deere.  But he is a person who should be watched on Sunday because he is overdue.

Anybody else?  Again it’s all up to Laird, if he plays bad it’s a new ball game and anyone can win.  I think that Bubba Watson at five back is in it, gosh Ryan Palmer played badly on Sunday last week, maybe he will play great and win.  Also don’t forget about guys like Russell Knox and Russell Henley.  The bottom line, anyone can find themselves backing into a victory.

Below is a list of the top-22 players on the leader board going to 6 under which is 6 shots back of Martin Laird: