BlogHonda Classic Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

What a great west coast swing.  To bad that Dustin Johnson couldn’t of won, if he did it would of been the most marquee west coast swing since 2005  For James Hahn it’s a big bonanza.  He moves up from 297th in the world rankings to 86 and with it will be looking for another great finish to get him into the top-50.  That gets him into the WGC-Match Play, U.S. Open, British Open and WGC-Bridgestone.  The good news for Hahn he gets into these events: 2015 Arnold Palmer Invitational, 2015 Masters Tournament, 2015 RBC Heritage, 2015 Players Championship, 2015 Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial, 2015 Memorial Tournament, 2015 PGA Championship and 2016 Hyundai Tournament of Champions.

While Hahn is happy for Paul Casey losing the playoff did move him from 85 to 65 in the rankings.  But that leaves him short for getting into the WGC-Cadillac in a couple of weeks and he is still knocking on the door for a return trip to Augusta.  So he also will be looking for a good finish on the Florida swing.

For me it feels a bit weird not having the Match Play end the west coast swing, but it makes sense on it’s placement.  Having the week before the Players will give more European players an excuse to play in the Players, making a two week swing through the Match Play, which is in San Francisco and then the Players in Florida.

Tour moves from west to east

So the 7 week west coast swing is finished and the tour moves east playing the next four weeks in Florida and Puerto Rico.  It’s like night and day, with the difference in weather and grasses we will see more folks with Florida roots winning and those that grew up and learned to play on Bermuda grasses will shine.  Also those that play well in wind will have their day as it tends to be very windy on the Florida swing.  This is also the final stretch run toward the Masters which is six weeks away.  With that the only players that can qualify for the Masters are the winners of the next six events and those that fight there way into the top-50 by the end of the Valero Texas Open.  It may seem hard to believe but for the FedEx Cup series the year is a third finish, time flies fast.

Things you need to know about the Honda Classic

This will be the 43rd Honda Classic.  The tournament got started in 1972 as the Jackie Gleason Inverrary Classic and was played at Inverrary Golf & C.C. in Lauderhill, Florida.  In 1981 Jackie Gleason was dropped from the tournament and the following year Honda came aboard as the tournament sponsor, today they are the longest running sponsor on the PGA Tour. After playing at several courses for 15 years, the tournament switched courses again in 2007. This time to the Champion Course at PGA National, site of the 1987 PGA Championship.  It became an instant success and has upgraded the tournament with more marquee and higher ranked players attending. In 1976 the Players Championship, which back then moved around to different courses, chose Inverrary Golf & C.C., and the Inverrary Classic wasn’t played that year.  The event is the first event in the Florida swing.

Course information:

• PGA National (Champion Course)
• Palm Beach Gardens, Fl.
• 7,140 yards     Par 35-35–70
• Course has a 75.3 rating and slope rating of 147 fron the championship tees. The course is part of a resort and is open to those that stay at the course.  It also sells local memberships.
• In 2014 the Champion was the 17th hardest course on the PGA Tour playing to a 70.408 average.  Because of the lack of wind and perfect weather all four days, it played the easiest it ever has since joining the tour in 2007.
• In 2013 the Champion was the 5th hardest course on the PGA Tour playing to a 71.318 average making it the hardest non-major course on the PGA Tour last year.
• Course has 78 bunkers and 26 water hazards in which 13 holes have water in play for the professionals.
• Originally designed by George and Tom Fazio and opened in 1981, Jack Nicklaus redesigned the Champion in 1990, adding the feared “Bear Trap” grouping of holes 15, 16 and 17. In the summer of 2013, The Champion underwent an entire bunker renovation with Nicklaus Design.
• The average size of the greens is 6,400 square feet.  The most famous part of the course is the “Bear Trap”, holes 15, 16 and 17, two par 3s and a par 4 that will bring a lot of drama and excitement to the finish of the tournament.  The 18th hole also creates a lot of drama, it’s a long par 5 that is close to impossible to hit in two, it’s a true par 5.
• PGA National has a lot of experience holding golf tournaments.  Along with the last eight Honda Classic’s, it’s held the 1983 Ryder Cup, the 1987 PGA Championship and was home to 18 Senior PGA Championships.  It also been the site of the 1982 PGA Grand Slam of Golf, the PGA Junior Championships from 1980-1987, 1989-1992, and 1994-2000 and the PGA Club Professional Championships in 1980, 1982, 1983 and 1993

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Honda Classic:

Key stat for the winner:

The tour moves from the west coast to Florida for the next four weeks. Look for a lot of different things as the difference between playing in California/Arizona/Hawaii is like night and day compared to playing in Florida. There is a special breed of player that does better on Bermuda than bent.

At the Honda and PGA National, historically all of the winners have some connection to playing well on Bermuda by either being born in Florida, South Africa or Australia or have moved to the Southeast like Michael Thompson who lives in Birmingham, Alabama or Y.E. Yang who lives in Dallas.  There is also a connection with those like past champions Ernie Els, Camilo Villegas and Rory McIlroy who have homes Jupiter, Florida.  Even guys like 2007 winner Mark Wilson, who was born in Wisconsin and lives in Illinois has a connection.  His is going to school in North Carolina, so you can see why his five PGA Tour has been on Bermuda courses in Florida, Mexico, Hawaii, Phoenix and Palm Springs.  Last year’s winner Russell Henley grew up in Macon, Georgia and lives on Kiawah Island which could understand why his two PGA Tour and three Web.Com tour wins are on courses with Bermuda grass.  So look for players with that Bermuda connections.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

Unbelievable and really weird stat:

PGA National is a typical Florida course with lots of water and sand, look for scores to be a bit high especially if the win blows.  This will be the first time players see Bermuda fairways, rough and greens on the year, so it will take some getting use to.

Accuracy is going to play the key over distance.  The Champions course is lined with tight undulating fairways that is surrounded with water and sand not only along the fairways but in the middle of several of the fairways. Hitting greens is very important, since moving to PGA National in 2007 six of the eight winners and eight of the thirteen runner-ups at Champions were ranked in the top-ten in greens hit.

Very tough par 4s at PGA National, Mark Wilson was 4 under in ’07, Ernie Els was 2 under in ’08, Y.E. Yang was 6 under in ’09 while Camilo Villegas was 9 under par in ’10. Keeping trend going was Rory Sabbatini in 2011 playing them in 7 under, but showing that they are tough was Rory McIlroy who was only 3 under in 2012, Michael Thompson who was only 2 under on them in 2013 and Russell Henley who was 6 under last year.

Good putting and scrambling.  The greens are very big and have lots of contours so the winner will be a very good lag putter.

Interesting to note that 12 of the last 21 winners of the Honda are those that are either born Floridians or now live in Florida (including 2012 winner Rory McIlroy, who bought a house down the road in Jupiter).  A perfect example is 2006 champion, Luke Donald.  Even though he was born in Great Britian and spent a good part of his time in Chicago, he has a house just a couple of miles away.  Look for that kind of a connection in the winner.  We don’t count 2013 winner Michael Thompson on our list but he lives in Birmingham, Alabama so he has to deal all the time with Bermuda when he is home.  The same with last year’s winner Russell Henley who lives in Kiawah Island, South Carolina and again with have a bermuda connection.

Good bunker player since there are a lot of strategically placed bunkers on the course.

Look for those that play good in wind, just look at 2005 champion Padraig Harrington, don’t think there is anybody better qualified after learning to play golf in Ireland.  It could be quite windy this time of year and the course is susceptible to winds so look for a good wind player.  The good news wind shouldn’t be a problem the first part of the tournament, but there is a 50% chance of rain on Thursday, 30% chance on Friday, 20% on Saturday and it’s suppose to perfect on Sunday. But the bad news is that winds will blow 17 mph on Saturday and 14 mph on Sunday, that will play havoc.  So look at those that have a good reputation as wind players for the weekend.