BlogWGC-Cadillac Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

Hard to believe that this event is taking place without Tiger Woods.  He had played in all of them except for in 2010, winning seven times and winning $9.5 million.  It’s amazing to think that you can work 14 weeks and earn that much, but Woods was a mainstay of this event.

It’s a shame after he finally won that Padraig Harrington didn’t make it, he went from 297 in the world rankings to 82nd and that wasn’t enough.  Same with runner-up Daniel Berger, who is a rookie this year and only has played in 12 events on the PGA Tour.  Berger is up to 73rd in the rankings.  Not bad for a player that at the beginning of the year was 301st.  I have a funny feeling that he will be in the top-50 soon enough.

One player that didn’t make the trip and was qualified was Northern Trust winner James Hahn.  His wife is due to have their baby girl next week and with them being in the San Francisco area James just didn’t want to be that far away.  He too will have many chances at this event.

We are back to Trump National Doral in the second year of the renovation and it will be interesting to see if the course plays as hard as it did last year.  Of course wind is the key, on days that it blows this course is the hardest in the world. But on dry, perfect days the pros can go low.  So it will be interesting if there is a point in-between in which the changes to the course does toughen it up a bit.

Things you need to know about the WCG-Cadillac championship:

• The second World Golf Championship of the 2014, the WCG-Cadillac championship will be a 72-hole, stroke-play event with a limited field of 74 players.  It will include the top-50 players in the World Golf Ranking plus the top-30 from the FedEx Cup point list from 2013, the top-10 of the 2013-14 FedEx Cup standings, the top-20 from the final 2013 Race To Dubai and the top-10 from the 2014 Race to Dubai standings.  Also the top-2 from the 2013 Japan Golf Tour, Australasian Tour and Asian Tour order of merit not otherwise exempt.
• There will be no cut in the 72-hole event, which has an $9.25 million purse with the winner receiving $1.57 million.
• This is only the second time that this event has been played at the same course back-to-back since the first two years at Valderamma.   Doral was the site of the Ford Championship of Doral between 1962 – 2006 and is now the home of the WGC-CA Championship.  In 2011 Cadillac took over sponsorship of this tournament.

Course information:

• The Blue Monster at Trump National Doral
• Doral, Fla.
• 7,481 yards     Par 36-36–72

Doral is a public golf course, part of the Trump Doral resort.  In 2014 the Blue Monster was the 3rd hardest course on the PGA Tour playing to a 73.852 average. In 2013 the Blue Monster was the 31 hardest course on the PGA Tour playing to a 71.354 average.

Doral was designed by Dick Wilson, with some help from Robert Von Hagge, and opened in 1962.  It has held a PGA Tour event on it every year since 1962.  In it’s first decade on the PGA Tour it was called one of the toughest courses in the world, thus it’s nickname “The Blue Monster”. Figures showed that it was one of the toughest courses on the PGA Tour in it’s first three decades, but a combination of better equipment, agronomy, players getting physically in shape and years with a lack of wind brought the scoring average down at Doral.

After the 1996 event, Doral officials closed the course and Raymond Floyd went about toughing and bringing the bite back to Doral.  He added 186 yards, put in an additional 18 bunkers, changed the grass from Rye to Bernuda and changed the design of the greens, basically in the interest of bring the teeth back to the event.  The renovation did just that.  In the years after the redesign, winds were tougher and scores went up to the levels that players didn’t like the combination of tough course with high winds complaining that the course was tricked up.  With marquee players not coming back, officials went through another renovation after the 2000 tournament, this time eliminating ten bunkers and softening up the greens.  In 2003 another 166 yards was added and in 2008 the greens were renovated with TifEagle.

With the passing of time, Doral again had another facelift after the 2013 event was played, this one probably the biggest of the bunch.  Gil Hanse was brought in and $18 million spent as 17 of the 18 holes were completely redone.  To honor the legendary 18th hole, it was the only hole not touched in the renovation.  Water comes into play more, with new hazards being placed at 1, 11, 14,15 and 16 and existing hazards coming more into play at 5 and 7.  Another 147 yards has been added and the course will play at 7,481, 542 yards more than in 1996 the year before it’s first renovation.

Here are some of the major changes to the course:

• The lengthening of the 1st hole – 2013 scorecard yardage – 529 vs. 2014 yardage – 572. There is also water in play to the right of the first green.
• The par 3, 9th hole has a number of new tee boxes including a back tee that can have it play as long as 200 yards. The green itself has moved closer to the 18th green which has created a new amphitheater of grandstands surrounding both the 18th and 9th greens.
• The 10th tee has moved significantly to players’ left as part of the expansion of the new driving range. This makes for a much different tee shot to carry over water on the 10th tee. Additionally, the 10th green was moved back to lengthen the hole to 614 yards.
• Some of the most exciting changes have happened on the finishing stretch. The par 3, 15th green for instance was a mostly non-descript 175-yard par 3. It is now a shorter hole at 153 yards, but much more water is in play with a peninsula green as part of the design.
• The 16th hole was also shortened from 372 yards to 341. Players have a better view of the green with a number of trees removed, but water now comes closer to the green making this a true risk-reward hole.

The big question will be, how much harder will the course play this year?  Last year we saw a really hard course but the wind was up.  A big lesson was learned in the Floyd renovation in 1997.  That the true toughness of the course lies in Mother Nature, when the wind blows the course is very difficult, playing a shot to two harder.  So when there is no wind, the course is very easy.  What Floyd did was make a tougher course by adding bunkers and making the greens very hard.  In no wind, the course was tough and fair but in high winds the course was very unfair and impossible.  So that is the secret in any redesign, you have to make creative changes to not toughen the holes but make them play differently that takes a lot of thought to play.  On the whole the players liked the Hanse changes, they didn’t feel the course was tricked up to bring the scores up.  So maybe the folks at Doral have gotten it right.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the WGC-Cadillac Championship

Key stat for the winner:

Last year players saw a new course as 17 of the 18 holes has been altered and the fairways widen a bit.  All of the greens were redone and the course played totally different from previous years.  The changed played a key part in making the course harder as it was 2 and a half shots harder between 2013 and 2014.  In past years the Blue Monster is only a monster in windy conditions  and last year was like that as there were winds up to 36 mph on Thursday and Friday which calmer winds over the weekend.  So the winds played a key role in the courses scoring average.

Here is a chart that shows the history of wind at Doral and how it’s changed the scoring average of the course:

Year  Round           Wind Conditions                               Day Scoring Average       Rank on Tour

2014      1                 15 to 20 MPH, gusts to 30                            73.809                       4th hardest

2014      2                 15 to 20 MPH, gusts to 36                            76.000                       1st hardest

2014      3                           5 to 10 MPH                                        72.574                           12th

2014      4                           5 to 10 MPH                                        73.015                             8th

2014  total                                                                                       73.852                     3rd hardest

2013       1                           8 to 15 MPH                                         70.754                     37th hardest

2013       2                          6 to 12 MPH                                          70.708                           35th

2013       3                         10 to 20 MPH                                         71.400                           27th

2013      4                           15 to 25 MPH                                        72.554                           17th

2013  total                                                                                         71.354                            31st

2012       1                  15 to 25 MPH, gusts to 31                            72.662                            18th

2012       2                           10 to 15 MPH                                       69.919                            42nd

2012       3                           10 to 15 MPH                                        70.110                           45th

2012       4                           15 to 25 MPH                                        71.861                            24th

2012  total                                                                                         71.137                            38th

2011       1                            10 to 20 MPH                                       70.727                           42nd

2011       2                           10 to 20 MPH                                        72.379                            17th

2011       3                            10 to 15 MPH                                       70.682                            33rd

2011       4                             10 to 15 MPH                                      72.121                            19th

2011  total                                                                                          71.477                            34th

2010       1                            25 to 30 MPH                                      72.574                             19th

2010       2                            15 to 25 MPH                                      70.897                             36th

2010       3                            10 to 15 MPH                                      71.603                             21st

2010       4                             12 to 22 MPH                                      69.868                            39th

2010  total                                                                                          71.235                           34th

2009      1                                5 to 18 MPH                                     70.600                           44th

2009      2                              10 to 18 MPH                                     70.519                           42nd

2009      3                              10 to 20 MPH                                     70.810                           33rd

2009      4                              12 to 20 MPH                                     71.734                           21st

2009  total                                                                                         70.915                          39th

2008      1                              10 to 20 MPH                                   70.899                          43rd

2008      2                               6 to 16 MPH                                    72.329                          25th

2008      3                             10 to 20 MPH                                     70.179                         45th

2008      4                              8 to 24 MPH                                      70.727                         38th

2008  total                                                                                       71.038                         40th

2007     1                     20 to 25 MPH , gusts to 30                         73.397                          13th

2007     2                            15 to 25 MPH                                       72.110                           28th

2007     3                            15 to 25 MPH                                       72.562                           15th

2007     4                            15 to 25 MPH                                       73.944                           8th

2007  total                                                                                        73.000                         16th

In looking at the long range weather for the week,  there will be winds of between 10 to 15 mph on everyday.  On Thursday temperatures will be 83 with a potential for severe thunderstorms.  The good news, weather will be ok on Thursday and Friday and started getting dicey with showers over the weekend.  temperature’s will be in the low 80s each day.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

• Solid shotmakers, since Doral demands ball control, especially if there is any wind.  In the last 16 years, eleven of the winners at Doral (including the Ford Championship in Doral) have been in the top four in greens hit.  2009 was the first major change as Phil Mickelson ranked T33rd in this stat which is the highest any winner at Doral has done in greens hit.  In 2010 Ernie Els continue the trend as he was T2nd in greens hit, but in 2011 Nick Watney was T12th while in 2012 Justin Rose was T17th and Tiger Woods was T6th in 2013.  Last year Patrick Reed ranked T28th
• Unimportant stat: Those that play well not only in Florida, but on Bermuda grasses will do well this week.  Interesting to note that since 1990 all the winners except for 1997 & 1999 champion Steve Elkington, 2008 champion Geoff Ogilvy, 2009 winner Phil Mickelson, 2011 winner Nick Watney, 2013 winner Justin Rose and 2014 winner Patrick Reed either grew up in Florida or live there.  Elkington and Ogilvy both grew up in Australia with Bermuda grass while Mickelson grew up in the San Diego area while Watney grew up in Northern California and Rose grew up in England and South Africa while Reed grew up in Texas.
• Interesting to point out that since 1983 every winner except for Patrick Reed, Rocco Mediate and Bill Glasson were over 29 years old with four winners in their 40s.  The average age of the 17 winners at Doral is 35 years old as last year’s winner Patrick Reed was just 24 the youngest.
• One more item on this, the PGA Tour has held a tournament at Doral since 1962.  In the 52 years there have been 38 different champion with only seven of them born in the Northeast or Northcentral United States.  Since 1990 there have only been three, all of them live in Florida today, the last was Jim Furyk in 2000.  So it only makes sense that the champion will be from a region of the Southeast, the South and Southwest of the United States, along with Australia, Great Britain and South Africa.  Since 1990, 17 of the 24 champions have had ties to the state of Florida. (Northeastearn or Northcentral winners)
• Par 5s aren’t a push over, but have been conquered by the champions at Doral.  Since 1997 they have averaged playing them in 9-under par.  Woods played the par 5s in 2007 at 10-under while in 2008 Ogilvy played them in 6 under and Mickelson played them in 7 under in 2009.  In 2010 Ernie Els played them in 12 under par while Watney was 11 under on then in 2011, Justin Rose was 11 under on then in 2012, Tiger was 9 under in 2013 the same number that Patrick Reed was last year.
• Don’t be surprised to see a non-American winner this week.  Between 1962 and 1989 no international player won at Doral, but since then 11 of the 25 have been international winners.