BlogWho will win at Doral on Sunday

Who could win on Sunday?

It’s been a dream week for J.B. Holmes at Doral.  On Thursday he went out and shot a 62, only the seventh time that score has been shot at Doral (Stephen Ames did shot 61 in 2000 for the competitive low Doral round).  Making the round more spectacular was the first round scoring average being 73.40 which meant that Holmes was eleven and a half shots better than the field.  Since Holmes is one of the longest hitters on the PGA Tour he has a big advantage, but making things work in his favor his his putting, he’s making a ton of them over three mounds, 284 feet of them.  Holmes is also hitting a lot of greens, over 54 holes he has hit 38 of 54 greens which ranks 5th.

What Holmes has done is coast since he shot 62, his first round had no bogeys, eight birdies and one eagle, in his second and third rounds he made nine birdies and a eagle.  That eagle was pretty spectacular as he made a hole in one on the fourth hole with a seven iron.  With all of this good play he goes into the final round with a five shot lead, a nice lead but he will have Dustin Johnson and Bubba Watson at five back chasing him.

Historically four of the last seven champions led after the first round, even more impressively looking at all the WGC-Cadillac’s played at Doral, since the event moved to Doral in 2007, six third round leaders/co-leaders have won and the other four were runner-ups.  So if history repeats, Holmes will win.  Still like everyone else, Holmes will have to go out and earn that win, I think it could be harder than some think.

Why will it be hard for Holmes to win?  After his perfect 62 Holmes has really scrambled, Friday he could only muster a 73 and his round of 70 on Saturday was saved with a hole in one and four straight birdies between 14 and 17.  Still he has a five shot lead, but the two five back are Dustin Johnson and Bubba Watson.  The bottom line, everything is in Holmes hands, if he shots 71-72, he should win.  If he has early problems and plays the front in a couple over par it will bring in some players to catch and pass him.  It’s interesting to see how Holmes has done when with the lead or close to the lead, here is a look at how Holmes has done with either the lead or within five of the lead.  The results are mixed as you can see, yes he won three times with the third round lead but for those with short memories look at what happened to J.B. last month at the Farmers Insurance Open, he didn’t get the job done on the final day.

How realistic are the chances of Dustin Johnson or Bubba Watson?  They aren’t terrible, both have some good points and bad points, but they are still five back.  Both have done well this year and both could win on Sunday.  Still for Johnson and Watson to win, they will have to shot five or six under which is a tall task or hope that Holmes stumbles.

Anybody else with a shot on Sunday?  Again it all depends what J.B. does, but Bill Haas did shot 65 to get within seven of Holmes.  Louis Oosthuizen is also seven back after shooting a 67 on Saturday.

What about those at 3 under, impressive list of players with Adam Scott, Sergio Garcia, Webb Simpson and Lee Westwood?  In order for these four to makeup the eight shots they will have to get a lot of help from Holmes.  But look at last week, Daniel Berger made up nine shots on the third round leader to get into the playoff, so anything is possible.

So will the weather play a difference?  Absolutely, in looking at the forecast it’s suppose to rain all night and during day on Sunday.  The good news is there won’t be any thunder, probably one of the reasons that PGA Tour officials haven’t moved up the tee times but the rain will make it harder and probably be more of an advantage for Holmes with his length.  Also forecast is winds from between 10 and 20 mph, that could make an impact on things.

Below is a list of the top-17 players on the leader board going to 1 under which is ten shots back of J.B. Holmes