Valspar Championship
March 12 – 15, 2015
Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course)
Palm Harbor, Fla.
Par: 71 / Yardage: 7,340
Purse: $5.9 million
with $1,062,000 to the winner
Defending Champion:
John Senden

Who could win on Sunday?:
After making 12 consecutive pars, Ryan Moore birdied four of his last six holes to shoot a 4-under-par 67 and forge a one-stroke lead over Jordan Spieth with a 54-hole total of 9-under 204. He’s the only player in the field with three straight scores in the 60s, a first since 2012 at Innisbrook. He could become the first Valspar Championship winner since Gary Woodland in 2011 to record four straight sub-70 scores.
Before today, the last time a player reached 9-under or greater at the Valspar Championship was in 2012 when Jim Furyk and Retief Goosen were tied for the lead at 11-under 202. Last year, Robert Garrigus held a 3-stroke lead at 7-under-par after 36 holes. John Senden was eight strokes back at 1-over-par, before winning by one stroke over Kevin Na.
Now Moore only has a one shot lead and he has six pretty good players within four shots of him so it should be a good battle on Sunday.
So what is Moore’s record when he is on top of the leaderboard going into the final round? Moore has been in sole possession of a 54-hole lead on the PGA Tour twice. He eventually finished T3rd at the 2010 BMW Championship and was T5th at the 2014 Travelers Championship. Moore also was tied for a third-round lead four times in his PGA Tour career and won twice from that position, most recently at the 2014 CIMB Classic. Two ways of looking at this, first here is Moore’s record when he has gone into the final round with the lead, co-lead or within five of the lead. Also here is the history of the Valspar and were the winners were after each round.
It’s been really hard to of late for third round leaders to shut the door down? A 54-hole leader/co-leader has not won on the PGA Tour over the last seven events, the last to win was Bill Haas, who was tied for the lead after three rounds at the Humana Challenge. Another stat that is hard to believe, The last nine 54-hole leaders/co-leaders failed to break par in final round.
So could this spell problems for Ryan Moore? Again it’s up to the person but we are seeing that it’s hard to be in the lead going into the final round. Not only does Moore have to look over his shoulder at his playing partner Jordan Spieth, but the six players within four of him have all won so anything could happen on Sunday.
If not Moore, who has the best shot at winning? Of course Jordan Spieth will be high on everyone’s list but just four shots back are some good players between Patrick Reed, Matt Kuchar and Henrik Stenson, these are the players to watch on Sunday.
Below is a list of the top-22 players on the leader board going to 2 under which is seven shots back of Ryan Moore.
Who’s played the best of late:
Of the top-22 on the leaderboard, who is playing the best: for the Valspar Championship
Player | WGC Cadillac | Honda Classic | Northern Trust | AT&T Pebble | Malaysian Open | Farmers | Dubai Desert | Phoenix Open | Qatar Masters | Humana | Abu Dhabi | Sony Open | Hyundai |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Patrick Reed (165.5 pts) |
T23 (40.5) |
T7 (55) |
DNP | T29 (14) |
DNP | DNP | DNP | T40 (3.33) |
DNP | T24 (8.67) |
DNP | DNP | Win (44) |
Jordan Spieth (151.17 pts) |
T17 (49.5) |
DNP | T4 (53.33) |
T7 (36.67) |
DNP | CUT (-6.67) |
DNP | T7 (18.33) |
DNP | DNP | DNP | DNP | DNP |
Henrik Stenson (141.33 pts) |
T4 (120) |
DNP | DNP | DNP | DNP | DNP | T13 (12.33) |
DNP | T13 (12.33) |
DNP | CUT (-3.33) |
DNP | DNP |
Matt Kuchar (121.5 pts) |
T23 (40.5) |
DNP | DNP | DNP | DNP | DNP | DNP | T30 (6.67) |
DNP | T2 (33.33) |
DNP | T3 (30) |
T17 (11) |
Ryan Moore (105.5 pts) |
T9 (67.5) |
DNP | T22 (18.67) |
DNP | DNP | DNP | DNP | T17 (11) |
DNP | WD (-1.67) |
DNP | DNP | T20 (10) |
Russell Knox (104 pts) |
DNP | T3 (90) |
DNP | DNP | DNP | CUT (-6.67) |
DNP | T15 (11.67) |
DNP | CUT (-3.33) |
DNP | T13 (12.33) |
DNP |
Daniel Summerhays (54 pts) |
DNP | T17 (33) |
T30 (13.33) |
T45 (3.33) |
DNP | DNP | DNP | CUT (-3.33) |
DNP | CUT (-3.33) |
DNP | T17 (11) |
DNP |
Brendon De Jonge (41.33 pts) |
DNP | T25 (25) |
CUT (-6.67) |
DNP | DNP | T27 (15.33) |
DNP | T26 (8) |
DNP | T41 (3) |
DNP | CUT (-3.33) |
DNP |
Sean O’Hair (38.67 pts) |
DNP | T25 (25) |
DNP | T29 (14) |
DNP | T69 (0) |
DNP | DNP | DNP | T41 (3) |
DNP | CUT (-3.33) |
DNP |
Shawn Stefani (28.33 pts) |
DNP | CUT (-10) |
T56 (0) |
DNP | DNP | DNP | DNP | T30 (6.67) |
DNP | T15 (11.67) |
DNP | T6 (20) |
DNP |
Vijay Singh (22.67 pts) |
DNP | CUT (-10) |
T12 (25.33) |
T34 (10.67) |
DNP | DNP | DNP | DNP | DNP | DNP | DNP | CUT (-3.33) |
DNP |
Chad Campbell (18 pts) |
DNP | T59 (0) |
T49 (0.67) |
DNP | DNP | T19 (20.67) |
DNP | T40 (3.33) |
DNP | CUT (-3.33) |
DNP | CUT (-3.33) |
DNP |
Lucas Glover (12.33 pts) |
DNP | CUT (-10) |
CUT (-6.67) |
DNP | DNP | T24 (17.33) |
DNP | T53 (0) |
DNP | T15 (11.67) |
DNP | T76 (0) |
DNP |
Brian Davis (12 pts) |
DNP | T59 (0) |
WD (-3.33) |
CUT (-6.67) |
DNP | CUT (-6.67) |
DNP | 75 (0) |
DNP | T24 (8.67) |
DNP | T6 (20) |
DNP |
Kevin Streelman (5.67 pts) |
DNP | DNP | CUT (-6.67) |
CUT (-6.67) |
DNP | DNP | DNP | T30 (6.67) |
DNP | T41 (3) |
DNP | T51 (0) |
T22 (9.33) |
How Player Rankings are Computed
Of the top-22 on the leaderboard, who isn’t playing well: for the Valspar Championship
Player | WGC Cadillac | Honda Classic | Northern Trust | AT&T Pebble | Malaysian Open | Farmers | Dubai Desert | Phoenix Open | Qatar Masters | Humana | Abu Dhabi | Sony Open | Hyundai |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Derek Ernst (-26.67 pts) |
DNP | 67 (0) |
CUT (-6.67) |
CUT (-6.67) |
DNP | CUT (-6.67) |
DNP | CUT (-3.33) |
DNP | DNP | DNP | CUT (-3.33) |
DNP |
Sam Saunders (-20 pts) |
DNP | DNP | DNP | CUT (-6.67) |
DNP | CUT (-6.67) |
DNP | DNP | DNP | CUT (-3.33) |
DNP | CUT (-3.33) |
DNP |
Luke Guthrie (-20 pts) |
DNP | CUT (-10) |
CUT (-6.67) |
DNP | DNP | T61 (0) |
DNP | T59 (0) |
DNP | CUT (-3.33) |
DNP | 85 (0) |
DNP |
Billy Hurley III (-19.33 pts) |
DNP | CUT (-10) |
CUT (-6.67) |
T45 (3.33) |
DNP | DNP | DNP | CUT (-3.33) |
DNP | T48 (0.67) |
DNP | CUT (-3.33) |
DNP |
Nick Taylor (-9.67 pts) |
DNP | DNP | CUT (-6.67) |
CUT (-6.67) |
DNP | DNP | DNP | T59 (0) |
DNP | CUT (-3.33) |
DNP | T68 (0) |
T29 (7) |
Jason Bohn (-3.33 pts) |
DNP | CUT (-10) |
DNP | T65 (0) |
DNP | DNP | DNP | T66 (0) |
DNP | T30 (6.67) |
DNP | DNP | DNP |
Jason Kokrak (4.33 pts) |
DNP | CUT (-10) |
T41 (6) |
CUT (-6.67) |
DNP | DNP | DNP | T40 (3.33) |
DNP | T48 (0.67) |
DNP | T17 (11) |
DNP |
How Player Rankings are Computed
Who to watch for at Innisbrook on Sunday
Best Bets:
Ryan Moore: It’s in his hands, if he comes out and makes par after par he will control this event. But if he has problems early he doesn’t have the extra power to come back and he will not win. You know he would love to make 12 pars to open like today followed by four birdies on his last six holes.
2015 | ’14 | ’13 | ’12 | ’11 | ’10 | ’09 | ’08 | ’07 | ’06 | ’05 | ’04 | ’03 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 (leads by 1) Cut Cut T44 T80 T19 Cut T8 Cut |
More info:
Jordan Spieth
2015 | ’14 | ’13 | ’12 | ’11 | ’10 | ’09 | ’08 | ’07 | ’06 | ’05 | ’04 | ’03 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2 (1 SB) | T20 | T7 |
Has to stay within himself, be calm and not make mistakes. He has the power to make lot’s of birdies. He is six under on the par 5s, so look for him to pick up shots there.
The three at five under to watch:
Patrick Reed
2015 | ’14 | ’13 | ’12 | ’11 | ’10 | ’09 | ’08 | ’07 | ’06 | ’05 | ’04 | ’03 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
T5 (3SB) | CUT |
Lots of firepower along with playing his last 36 holes in six under. If I was a betting man he would be the guy most likely to make the final round comeback.
Matt Kuchar
2015 | ’14 | ’13 | ’12 | ’11 | ’10 | ’09 | ’08 | ’07 | ’06 | ’05 | ’04 | ’03 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
T5 (3 SB) | T38 | T14 | T10 | T12 | CUT | T20 |
Very surprised that he hasn’t won before on this course, it’s perfect for him. He has been in this position a number of times this year and not come through in the final round, this could be a problem.
Henrik Stenson
2015 | ’14 | ’13 | ’12 | ’11 | ’10 | ’09 | ’08 | ’07 | ’06 | ’05 | ’04 | ’03 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
T5 (3 SB) |
Always finds a way to go into the final round with a chance, only thing has a terrible record of doing the deal on the final round. But you never know, he will be there if the leaders falter.
Should we give these guys more credit?
Sean O’Hair
2015 | ’14 | ’13 | ’12 | ’11 | ’10 | ’09 | ’08 | ’07 | ’06 | ’05 | ’04 | ’03 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
4 (3 SB) | 74 | 69 | CUT | CUT | CUT | CUT | Win | CUT | CUT | T10 |
Knows how to win on this course, but hasn’t been in this position in a while. But don’t discard him.
Derek Ernst
2015 | ’14 | ’13 | ’12 | ’11 | ’10 | ’09 | ’08 | ’07 | ’06 | ’05 | ’04 | ’03 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
3 (2 SB) | CUT |
Not on many people’s short list, has won in the past but I just don’t see it happening. Unless he backs into the victory which could happen if others falter down the stretch.
Long shots that could come through:
Vijay Singh
2015 | ’14 | ’13 | ’12 | ’11 | ’10 | ’09 | ’08 | ’07 | ’06 | ’05 | ’04 | ’03 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
T8 (5 SB) | CUT | T38 | T63 | T51 | T19 | T19 | CUT | Win | 2 |
Has been very consistent this week, but making up five shots could be a tall order for him.
Russell Knox
2015 | ’14 | ’13 | ’12 | ’11 | ’10 | ’09 | ’08 | ’07 | ’06 | ’05 | ’04 | ’03 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
T10 (6 SB) | T25 | CUT |
Was in this position last year and almost won at Honda, so don’t forget about him.
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