BlogWho will win at Innisbrook on Sunday

Who could win on Sunday?:

After making 12 consecutive pars, Ryan Moore birdied four of his last six holes to shoot a 4-under-par 67 and forge a one-stroke lead over Jordan Spieth with a 54-hole total of 9-under 204. He’s the only player in the field with three straight scores in the 60s, a first since 2012 at Innisbrook. He could become the first Valspar Championship winner since Gary Woodland in 2011 to record four straight sub-70 scores.

Before today, the last time a player reached 9-under or greater at the Valspar Championship was in 2012 when Jim Furyk and Retief Goosen were tied for the lead at 11-under 202. Last year, Robert Garrigus held a 3-stroke lead at 7-under-par after 36 holes. John Senden was eight strokes back at 1-over-par, before winning by one stroke over Kevin Na.

Now Moore only has a one shot lead and he has six pretty good players within four shots of him so it should be a good battle on Sunday.

So what is Moore’s record when he is on top of the leaderboard going into the final round?  Moore has been in sole possession of a 54-hole lead on the PGA Tour twice. He eventually finished T3rd at the 2010 BMW Championship and was T5th at the 2014 Travelers Championship. Moore also was tied for a third-round lead four times in his PGA Tour career and won twice from that position, most recently at the 2014 CIMB Classic.  Two ways of looking at this, first here is Moore’s record when he has gone into the final round with the lead, co-lead or within five of the lead.  Also here is the history of the Valspar and were the winners were after each round.

It’s been really hard to of late for third round leaders to shut the door down? A 54-hole leader/co-leader has not won on the PGA Tour over the last seven events, the last to win was Bill Haas, who was tied for the lead after three rounds at the Humana Challenge.  Another stat that is hard to believe, The last nine 54-hole leaders/co-leaders failed to break par in final round.

So could this spell problems for Ryan Moore?  Again it’s up to the person but we are seeing that it’s hard to be in the lead going into the final round.  Not only does Moore have to look over his shoulder at his playing partner Jordan Spieth, but the six players within four of him have all won so anything could happen on Sunday.

If not Moore, who has the best shot at winning?  Of course Jordan Spieth will be high on everyone’s list but just four shots back are some good players between Patrick Reed, Matt Kuchar and Henrik Stenson, these are the players to watch on Sunday.

Below is a list of the top-22 players on the leader board going to 2 under which is seven shots back of Ryan Moore.