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BlogWho will win at Innisbrook on Sunday

Valspar Championship

March 12 – 15, 2015

Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course)

Palm Harbor, Fla.

Par: 71 / Yardage: 7,340

Purse: $5.9 million

with $1,062,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
John Senden

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

Who could win on Sunday?:

 

After making 12 consecutive pars, Ryan Moore birdied four of his last six holes to shoot a 4-under-par 67 and forge a one-stroke lead over Jordan Spieth with a 54-hole total of 9-under 204. He’s the only player in the field with three straight scores in the 60s, a first since 2012 at Innisbrook. He could become the first Valspar Championship winner since Gary Woodland in 2011 to record four straight sub-70 scores.

Before today, the last time a player reached 9-under or greater at the Valspar Championship was in 2012 when Jim Furyk and Retief Goosen were tied for the lead at 11-under 202. Last year, Robert Garrigus held a 3-stroke lead at 7-under-par after 36 holes. John Senden was eight strokes back at 1-over-par, before winning by one stroke over Kevin Na.

Now Moore only has a one shot lead and he has six pretty good players within four shots of him so it should be a good battle on Sunday.

So what is Moore’s record when he is on top of the leaderboard going into the final round?  Moore has been in sole possession of a 54-hole lead on the PGA Tour twice. He eventually finished T3rd at the 2010 BMW Championship and was T5th at the 2014 Travelers Championship. Moore also was tied for a third-round lead four times in his PGA Tour career and won twice from that position, most recently at the 2014 CIMB Classic.  Two ways of looking at this, first here is Moore’s record when he has gone into the final round with the lead, co-lead or within five of the lead.  Also here is the history of the Valspar and were the winners were after each round.

It’s been really hard to of late for third round leaders to shut the door down? A 54-hole leader/co-leader has not won on the PGA Tour over the last seven events, the last to win was Bill Haas, who was tied for the lead after three rounds at the Humana Challenge.  Another stat that is hard to believe, The last nine 54-hole leaders/co-leaders failed to break par in final round.

So could this spell problems for Ryan Moore?  Again it’s up to the person but we are seeing that it’s hard to be in the lead going into the final round.  Not only does Moore have to look over his shoulder at his playing partner Jordan Spieth, but the six players within four of him have all won so anything could happen on Sunday.

If not Moore, who has the best shot at winning?  Of course Jordan Spieth will be high on everyone’s list but just four shots back are some good players between Patrick Reed, Matt Kuchar and Henrik Stenson, these are the players to watch on Sunday.

Below is a list of the top-22 players on the leader board going to 2 under which is seven shots back of Ryan Moore.

 

Who’s played the best of late:

Of the top-22 on the leaderboard, who is playing the best: for the Valspar Championship

Player WGC Cadillac Honda Classic Northern Trust AT&T Pebble Malaysian Open Farmers Dubai Desert Phoenix Open Qatar Masters Humana Abu Dhabi Sony Open Hyundai
Patrick Reed
(165.5 pts)
T23
(40.5)
T7
(55)
DNP T29
(14)
DNP DNP DNP T40
(3.33)
DNP T24
(8.67)
DNP DNP Win
(44)
Jordan Spieth
(151.17 pts)
T17
(49.5)
DNP T4
(53.33)
T7
(36.67)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T7
(18.33)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Henrik Stenson
(141.33 pts)
T4
(120)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T13
(12.33)
DNP T13
(12.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP
Matt Kuchar
(121.5 pts)
T23
(40.5)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T30
(6.67)
DNP T2
(33.33)
DNP T3
(30)
T17
(11)
Ryan Moore
(105.5 pts)
T9
(67.5)
DNP T22
(18.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T17
(11)
DNP WD
(-1.67)
DNP DNP T20
(10)
Russell Knox
(104 pts)
DNP T3
(90)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T15
(11.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T13
(12.33)
DNP
Daniel Summerhays
(54 pts)
DNP T17
(33)
T30
(13.33)
T45
(3.33)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T17
(11)
DNP
Brendon De Jonge
(41.33 pts)
DNP T25
(25)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP T27
(15.33)
DNP T26
(8)
DNP T41
(3)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Sean O’Hair
(38.67 pts)
DNP T25
(25)
DNP T29
(14)
DNP T69
(0)
DNP DNP DNP T41
(3)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Shawn Stefani
(28.33 pts)
DNP CUT
(-10)
T56
(0)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T30
(6.67)
DNP T15
(11.67)
DNP T6
(20)
DNP
Vijay Singh
(22.67 pts)
DNP CUT
(-10)
T12
(25.33)
T34
(10.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Chad Campbell
(18 pts)
DNP T59
(0)
T49
(0.67)
DNP DNP T19
(20.67)
DNP T40
(3.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Lucas Glover
(12.33 pts)
DNP CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP T24
(17.33)
DNP T53
(0)
DNP T15
(11.67)
DNP T76
(0)
DNP
Brian Davis
(12 pts)
DNP T59
(0)
WD
(-3.33)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP 75
(0)
DNP T24
(8.67)
DNP T6
(20)
DNP
Kevin Streelman
(5.67 pts)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP T30
(6.67)
DNP T41
(3)
DNP T51
(0)
T22
(9.33)

How Player Rankings are Computed

Of the top-22 on the leaderboard, who isn’t playing well: for the Valspar Championship

Player WGC Cadillac Honda Classic Northern Trust AT&T Pebble Malaysian Open Farmers Dubai Desert Phoenix Open Qatar Masters Humana Abu Dhabi Sony Open Hyundai
Derek Ernst
(-26.67 pts)
DNP 67
(0)
CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Sam Saunders
(-20 pts)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Luke Guthrie
(-20 pts)
DNP CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP T61
(0)
DNP T59
(0)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP 85
(0)
DNP
Billy Hurley III
(-19.33 pts)
DNP CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-6.67)
T45
(3.33)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T48
(0.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Nick Taylor
(-9.67 pts)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP T59
(0)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T68
(0)
T29
(7)
Jason Bohn
(-3.33 pts)
DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP T65
(0)
DNP DNP DNP T66
(0)
DNP T30
(6.67)
DNP DNP DNP
Jason Kokrak
(4.33 pts)
DNP CUT
(-10)
T41
(6)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP T40
(3.33)
DNP T48
(0.67)
DNP T17
(11)
DNP

How Player Rankings are Computed

In conclusion:

I give Moore a 50/50 chance at winning.  He is a veteran player that has been in this position before and has won in this postion but I think it’s just too hard to win on tour these days.  Some things in his favor, he is second best in strokes gained from Tee to Green (Jordan Spieth is first) along with ranking 14th in strokes gained putting.  Moore also has this going for him, he only has made two bogeys over 54 holes, both on par 3s so making a lot of pars is good on this course.  Again the key for Moore is to do what he has done over the first three rounds, play consistently on the front nine.  Moore has to break 70 on Sunday to win, so 16 pars and two birdies will take care of things.  As for Spieth, he has been the best from tee to green but hasn’t been as consistent making five bogeys and one double.

 

Who to watch for at Innisbrook on Sunday

Best Bets:

Ryan Moore: It’s in his hands, if he comes out and makes par after par he will control this event. But if he has problems early he doesn’t have the extra power to come back and he will not win. You know he would love to make 12 pars to open like today followed by four birdies on his last six holes.

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
1 (leads by 1)    Cut     Cut     T44    T80   T19   Cut      T8                Cut

Jordan Spieth

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
2 (1 SB) T20 T7

Has to stay within himself, be calm and not make mistakes. He has the power to make lot’s of birdies. He is six under on the par 5s, so look for him to pick up shots there.

The three at five under to watch:

Patrick Reed

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
T5 (3SB) CUT

Lots of firepower along with playing his last 36 holes in six under. If I was a betting man he would be the guy most likely to make the final round comeback.

Matt Kuchar

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
T5 (3 SB) T38 T14 T10 T12 CUT T20

Very surprised that he hasn’t won before on this course, it’s perfect for him. He has been in this position a number of times this year and not come through in the final round, this could be a problem.

Henrik Stenson

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
T5 (3 SB)

Always finds a way to go into the final round with a chance, only thing has a terrible record of doing the deal on the final round. But you never know, he will be there if the leaders falter.

Should we give these guys more credit?

Sean O’Hair

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
4 (3 SB) 74 69 CUT CUT CUT CUT Win CUT CUT T10

Knows how to win on this course, but hasn’t been in this position in a while. But don’t discard him.

Derek Ernst

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
3 (2 SB) CUT

Not on many people’s short list, has won in the past but I just don’t see it happening. Unless he backs into the victory which could happen if others falter down the stretch.

Long shots that could come through:

Vijay Singh

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
T8 (5 SB) CUT T38 T63 T51 T19 T19 CUT Win 2

Has been very consistent this week, but making up five shots could be a tall order for him.

Russell Knox

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
T10 (6 SB) T25 CUT

Was in this position last year and almost won at Honda, so don’t forget about him.

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