BlogValero Texas Open Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

We are having one hell of a year in golf.  Lots of great play and you want a bit of parody, you’ve got it having 19 events and 19 different winners.  How about Matt Every defending his championship at the Palmer, this is becoming his annuity winning 30% of his career earnings of $7.5 million at the Palmer.  A guy gets into a groove at a spot and seems that Every has that groove.

Here are the players, who since 1970 made their first two wins on the PGA Tour at the same event:

• Matt Every                2014, ’15 Arnold Palmer
• Boo Weekley             2007, ’08 Heritage
• J.B. Holmes              2006, ’08 Phoenix
• Vaughan Taylor       2004, ’05 Barracuda Championship (Reno)
• Calvin Peete              1997, 1982 Milwaukee
• Loren Roberts          1995, ’95 Arnold Palmer
• Brian Henninger      1994, ’96 Sanderson Farms Championship
• Dave Eichelberger    1971, ’77 Milwaukee
• Hale Irwin                  1971, ’73 Heritage

This week is also important for several players looking to get into the Masters.  The field is set and there are very few ways of getting a last minute invite, of course the winners of the Texas Open and Shell Houston get in.  One that ends on Sunday is for those players in the top-50 of the world rankings.  Now those that are in the top-50 and don’t have an invite are Anirban Lahiri (35), Bernd Wiesberger (41), Branden Grace (43) and Paul Casey (49).  Now for Lahiri, Wiesberger and Grace they are safe and should stay in the top-50.  But for Casey, he is very, very vulnerable.  Making things worst he’s not playing in San Antonio so the odds are good that he gets past over this week.  I am sorry but I just can’t understand him not playing this week.  Yes you can’t play every week, but he has very little chance of staying in the top-50 by taking the week off.

Now let’s look at some of the players that are knocking on the door and see what it will take to jump into the top-50.

• First is Marc Warren, who is 52nd.  He will need a 18th place or better at Valero.
• At 53rd is Harris English.  He will need a 7th or better at Valero to make it.
• So you can see why I say that Casey could get past over this week
• Then it gets really hard.
• Alexander Levy is 54th and playing in Morocco.  He will need a T2nd with just one player or win at Trophee Hassan.
• Then it gets really hard.  Andy Sullivan is 61st and needs a win or 2nd alone in Morocco.
• Matt Jones is 62nd and needs a 4th place or better at Valero.
• Francesco Molinari is 63rd and needs a 3rd place or better in Texas.
• The same for #64 John Senden, #67 Graham Delaet and #70 Daniel Berger.
• One other guy with an outside chance is Charley Hoffman, who is 72nd and needs to finish 2nd or better at Valero.
• For 66th Tommy Fleetwood and #69 George Coetzee they will have to win Trophee Hassan.

Injury report

Brooks Koepka was one of my choices last week at the Palmer and was disappointed that he withdrew on Sunday.  Seems that he dislocated his rib on Thursday, tried to play through the pain and it got so bad on Sunday he had to withdraw after 11 holes.  This doesn’t come at a good time for him, since we are just two weeks away from the Masters.  Koepka is scheduled to play in Houston next week, but I have a funny feeling that may not happen

Things you need to know about the Valero Texas Open

The Valero Texas Open is an historic tournament, it’s the 6th oldest professional tournament in golf world-wide, the 3rd oldest on the PGA Tour and the longest held in the same city. In 2012, the tournament celebrated its 90th anniversary. Dating back to 1922, the tournament has been through 16 names to date, but it can always trace its lineage back to San Antonio, Texas. As for host courses of the Valero Texas Open, the event has predominantly been hosted by the Brackenridge Park Golf Course, the Willow Springs Golf Course, Fort Sam Houston Golf Course, Oak Hills Country Club, and  between 1995 and 2009, The Resort at La Cantera.  Five years ago they moved to the new TPC San Antonio, which is part of a two course project.

Always known as a place where pros can go to score low until the move to TPC San Antonio, the Valero Texas Open has been the site of numerous scoring feats. Al Brosch, in the 1951 Texas Open held at Brackenridge Park, became the first PGA Tour player to post a score of 60. In 1955, just four years later, Mike Souchak, again playing at Brackenridge Park, posted a 72-hole score of 257, which would stand as the PGA Tour record until 2001. In the 2003 Valero Texas Open, Tommy Armour fired a 254 at LaCantera to set the record for lowest 72-hole score in PGA Tour history. His score to par of 26-under also was a Tour record for Par 70 courses. His score eclipsed Donnie Hammond’s 22-under par, which he shot at the 1989 Valero Texas Open

Course information:

TPC San Antonio (AT&T Oaks Course

• San Antonio, Tx.
• 7,435 yards     Par 36-36–72
• AT&T Oaks features a course rating of 76.5 and a slope rating from the back tees of 148. The tees, fairway, and rough are Bermuda Grass but different strains, Emerald Ultradwarf on the tees, TifSport on the fairways, Champion Ultradwarf on the greens and Bandera in the rough. The course is part of a resort and is open to those that stay at the course and it’s members.
• The average green size at AT&T Oaks is 6,400 square feet, which is a little over the average on the PGA Tour.  has 58 bunkers and water that comes into play on 3 holes.
• In 2014 the TPC San Antonio was the 8th hardest course on the PGA Tour playing to a 73.286 average, playing a shot and a quarter over par.
• In 2013 the TPC San Antonio was the 15th hardest course on the PGA Tour playing to a 72.740 average playing .740 stroke over par.
• There wasn’t anything wrong with LaCantera, the reason for the move is financial because the event now doesn’t have to pay a site fee which has been reported in the $300,000 neighborhood.  The course being used is the AT&T Oaks, which will play at 7,522 yards and a par 72.  It was design by Greg Norman with Sergio Garcia as the player consulted.  The course opened in 2009 and will be the  12th TPC course that will be used on the PGA Tour this year.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Valero Texas Open:

Key stat for the winner:

• For the regulars of past Valero Texas Open’s, five years ago was the start of the new era here.  For players like Zach Johnson, who won twice and Justin Leonard, who won three times at LaCantera, it was an unpleasant experience as Leonard has not finished better than T30th in five tries while Johnson missed the cut in 2010 but did finish T6th last year.   In looking at the performance stats from 2010 through 2014 hitting greens seemed to be the key for many in the top-ten. Last year the course had the hardest greens to hit on the PGA Tour as only 55.24% of them were hit.  That has been the buzz about the course, in it’s five years on the PGA Tour it’s never been above 7th ranked in Greens Hit.
• On the other realm of the spectrum, TPC San Antonio does have the easiest greens on tour to putt.  In 2014 it ranked 44 out of 48 courses on average putts and putts per round with an average of 28.24.  The course had the most one putts of any course on tour with a 43.50 average.
• Combination of that tells us that of those that hit a player need to hit lot’s of greens and putt well.  In looking at the five winners at TPC San Antonio all of them ranked in the top-20 in both greens hit and # of putts (all except for Brendan Steele in 2011 ranked T40th in greens hit).

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

• Unimportant stat: With the course being new in 2010, it makes sense with wins from inexperience winners like Brendan Steele, Martin Laird and last year’s winner Steven Bowditch.  But Adam Scott won in 2010 and Ben Curtis in 2012 so the players should know the course by now.
• Since TPC San Antonio joined the PGA Tour in 2010, it has never been out of the top-20 of toughest courses on tour and been in the top-eight three of the last four years.
• One trend that is pretty unique at the Texas Open is the fact that 3rd round leaders tend to rule the roast.  Since 1988 the 3rd round leader has won 19 of the 27 tournaments so if you are looking for a neat bet with someone, bet the 3rd round leader to win the tournament.  In the last five years at TPC San Antonio, three of the five champions led after the third round.
• Look for the course to play tough, with thick rough and tight fairways that will play havoc on the players.  Hitting it long doesn’t cut it at TPC San Antonio, of those that have finished in the top-3 only four have been in the top-ten in driving distance.  So this is a course that power won’t dictate a win.
• Fifteen previous Texas Opens have been decided in playoffs, the last coming in 2009 when Zach Johnson defeated James Driscoll.  So there hasn’t been any playoffs yet at TPC San Antonio.
• In looking at the long range weather forecast it’s going to be warm with temperatures in the middle 70s.  There is a 60% chance for thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon, but after that the weather will be perfect.