BlogShell Houston Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

Playing the week before a major

In looking at the field there are eight players #3 Jordan Spieth, #8 Sergio Garcia and #10 Jimmy Walker, #11 Justin Rose, #12 Rickie Fowler, #13 Martin Kaymer, #14 Matt Kuchar and #15 Patrick Reed, that are ranked in the top-15 and playing in Houston.  On top of that 10 of the 19 tour winners are in the field along with ten players in the top-20 of the FedExCup points list. This is a testimonial for what the folks that run the Shell Houston have done in getting the course set up the way it is.

Now the disadvantage of playing the week before a major is peaking too soon.  Hunter Mahan has won twice the week before a major, at Houston in 2012 and Bridgestone in 2011 and he was flat at the next major. Same with Lee Westwood, both of his PGA Tour wins came the week before a major and he wasn’t in the running the next week.  You always want to win no matter if it’s a major or the week before a major, but winning takes a lot out of you and we can tell you of a lot players that are mentally fried and not able to keep it going the week after winning especially at a major.

Now on the other end just look at what happen to Phil Mickelson lin 2013.  He won the Scottish Open and it help get his game in shape for the British Open.  This isn’t the first time that Phil has done that, in 2006 Mickelson won in Atlanta and then won the next week at the Masters.  There is no right or wrong answer on this, it’s all what you feel.  But I leave you with one big thought on this, if the purse for the Shell Houston was say $3 million instead of $6.6 million and if first place was just $500,000 compared to over a million dollars, I bet you a lot of players would take the week off.  Greed at time can be wonderful and frankly a lot of players wouldn’t care less about a major if they could win a million the week before.

Last shot getting to the Masters

This is the last shot for players to get into the Masters.  It’s win this week or take next week off.  A couple in the field this week have some reasons for playing and winning.  For these the week of the Masters has been a regular routine for years and since they don’t have an invite are dying to get in:

• Stewart Cink – Has played 17 of the last 18 years, did miss 2003
• K.J. Choi – Has played the last 12 years starting in 2003
• Francesco Molinari – Has played last 4 years.
• One other that I know also want to get in is Charles Howell III.  For Howell he is a Augusta native and has come close to quailifying.  He has played in eight Masters, the last in 2012.  These four aren’t the only ones, everyone in the field this week not in the Masters would love that last minute invite.

Tiger talk

Last, but not least have to talk about Tiger Woods. No it’s not about the Masters, no news but he needs to make a decision soon.

For the first time since October of 1996 Woods has dropped out of the top-100 of the world rankings.  In reality the rankings are pretty much meaning less for most players, but Woods slide is growing faster and if he isn’t careful won’t have any chances of playing in the WGC-Cadillac Match Play and possibly the WGC-Bridgestone in August.  Amazing to think that the last time Tiger wasn’t in the top-100 of the rankings, these things were happening:

• LPGA star Lydia Ko wasn’t even born and Jordan Spieth had just turn three years-old
• The week that Woods got into the top-100 with his Las Vegas win, Greg Norman was celebrating his 68th straight week as #1 golfer.
• If you bought $1,000 of Apple stock on October 6th, 1996 and stuck it under the mattress, that stock today would be worth just over $265,000.
• A share of Berkshire Hathaway sold for $28,500 a share in 1996 and today it’s $219,700

Just goes to show Tiger has dominated the World Rankings for over 18 years and it’s a bit weird to think he is dropping so fast.  If Tiger decides not to play again this year, he could fall out of the top-1000 by the end of summer.

Things you need to know about the Shell Houston Open

This will be the 68th edition of the Shell Houston Open, which was formerly called the Houston Open.  This is its tenth year at the Golf Club of Houston which use to be called Tournament Course at Redstone.  This course was created especially with the Shell Houston Open in mind. In prior years the tournament was held across the street at the Members Course at Redstone between 2003 and 2005.  Before that, the TPC at the Woodlands had been the site between 1985 and 2002.  Courses used before 1985 include the West course at the Woodlands, River Oaks C.C., Memorial Park G.C., Pine Forest C.C., Brae Burn C.C., Sharpstown C.C., Champions G.C., Westwood G.C. and Quail Valley G.C.  The first Shell Houston Open was played in 1946 and was called the Tournament of Champions. Byron Nelson beat Ben Hogan that year by two strokes at River Oaks.

Course information:

Redstone G.C. (Tournament Course)

• Humble, Tx.
• 7,441 yards     Par 36-36–72
• The tournament course at Redstone features a course rating of 76.0 and a slope rating from the back tees of 144. The tees, fairway, and rough are TifSport bermudaGrass as the greens are Miniverde bermudagrass. The course is a semi private course and can be played by the public.
• The average green size at Redstone is 6,500 square feet, which is a little larger than average on the PGA Tour. The course has 50 bunkers and water comes into play on 10 holes.
• In 2014 Golf Club of Houston was the 23rd hardest course on the PGA Tour playing to a 72.245 average, playing .245 storkes over par.
• In 2013 the Redstone was the 25th hardest course on the PGA Tour playing to a 71.868 average, playing .132 strokes under par.
• Golf Club in Houston is an anomaly. It’s a relatively new course with a history, located on the site of the former El Dorado Country Club. Designed by Jay Riviere, El Dorado Country Club opened in the 1960s but was closed in the early 1990s as a victim of a suffering Houston economy following the oil bust.
• Golf Club in Houston is one of only a couple dozen courses in the country that are open to the public and host a PGA Tour event. It was designed by Rees Jones with PGA Tour Professional David Toms serving as course design consultant.
• The course has a variation of different holes, but what sticks out are the short par 4s.  Four of them are under 400 yards (holes 1, 3, 10 & 12) but they’re offset by four par 4s that are longer than 460 yards (holes 5, 6, 17 & 18).  It also has a killer finish with the par 3, 16th hole playing at 204 yards and the final two holes playing at 489 and 488 yards.  The last hole was the hardest hole on the course last year playing to a 4.412 average

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Shell Houston Open:

Key stat for the winner:

Now an important stat is hitting lots of greens, last year Matt Jones was 2nd while in 2013 D.A. Points was T10th. In 2012 Hunter Mahan was tied for the lead in hitting greens, one of two champions since 2004 that led this stat. Between 2009 and 2011 that stat was in play with 2009 winner Paul Casey ranking 22nd, 2010 winner Anthony Kim ranking T53rd and 2011 winner Phil Mickelson ranking T12th. But of the previous nine winners on two other courses they ranked tenth or lower in greens hit.

The 2006 winner, Stuart Appleby, hit 56 of the 72 greens and that was 2nd best in the field.  In 2007, Adam Scott won while hitting 57 of 72 greens which ranked T8.  Runner-up Stuart Appleby was 4th in that stat and Bubba Watson was 12th.  Fourth-place finisher Tommy Armour III led the stat.   2008 winner Johnson Wagner hit 56 of 72 greens and ranked T4th while the leader in greens hit Billy Mayfair finished T4th.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

• Unimportant stat: Hitting lots of fairways is not that important at Golf Club at Houston.  Last year’s winner Matt Jones was T25th while 2013 champion D.A. Points was T33rd. The year before Hunter Mahan was T33rd while Mickelson was T71st, 2010 champion Anthony Kim was 80th, 2009 winner Paul Casey ranked T36th while 2008 champion Johnson Wagner was T41st in hitting fairways.  The trend is not hitting it straight anymore on the PGA Tour it’s hitting it long, going a chasing it and hitting the next one on the green and making the birdie putt.
• Interesting to note that since the Golf Club of Houston was first used in 2006, results show that the course is in the top 25% in length of drives while in driving accuracy it’s in the middle of all the other courses used on the PGA Tour.  What this means is that longer hitters that don’t hit fairways have a slight advantage over straight, short hitters.  That is why the list of champions at Golf Club of Houston included long hitters as Adam Scott, Paul Casey, Anthony Kim and Phil Mickelson.
• Playing well on the par 4s. Matt Jones was 4 under on them in 2014 while D.A. Points in 2013 was 10 under. In 2012 Hunter Mahan was 11 under, Phil Mickelson was 3 under in 2011, Anthony Kim was 4 under in 2010, Paul Casey was 5 under in 2009, Johnson Wagner was 4 under in 2008, Adam Scott was 7 under on the par 4s in 2007 while Appleby was 13 under on them in 2006.  It’s a rare feat when players score lower on the par 4s than the par 5s.
• In most events you make up shots on par 5s.  But at Golf Club of Houston the par 5s are very demanding, players can’t overpower the par 5s because the shortest is 557 yards.  On the back nine, the two 5s are 590 and 608 yards, so getting it home in two is near impossible on two of the four par 5s. Last year the course ranked to have the 10th hardest par 5s on tour.  On the other end of the spectrum the par 4s are less demanding than other course on the PGA Tour since four of the par 4s are under 400 yards, ranking 19th hardest on tour in 2014.
• Since the Houston tournament started in 1946, 16 players have scored their first PGA Tour victories here including 2008 champion Johnson Wagner, 2009 winner Paul Casey and last year’s winner Matt Jones.  In the 1990s, this was the hot spot for those achieving their first wins; between 1990 and 1994 all the winners were first timers.
• Golf Club of Houston is deemed a great spot for getting ready for the Masters as Shell Houston officials have gone out of their way to set up the course in the same manner as Augusta Nationals, with light fairway rough, fast, treacherous greens and low cut fridges which will help people get ready for the Masters. In looking at this years field, 36 that are playing in Houston will also play at the Masters.
• Since 2006 five of the nine champions led going into the final round.
• Overtime is still the norm for Houston with a playoff last year.  Since the event was first played there have been 22 playoffs, including 12 in the last 28 years.
• In looking at the long range weather forecast weather is going to change drastically over the four days.  Thursday and Friday will be warm with temperatures in the high 80s, we a 40% chance of thunderstorms.  But a front will go through the Houston area on Friday night dropping temperatures 20 degrees for Saturday with no chance of rain.  It will warm up a bit on Sunday but the forecast is calling for 80% of rain.  One thing players won’t like, just like at the Valero Texas Open it will be breezy each day with Thursday having the most wind.