BlogThe Players Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

The WGC-Cadillac Match Play turned into a great championship and the World Federation finally has done the event right with the new format.  We had five great days of golf with lot’s of meaning full golf.  The course was set up perfectly for match play and I can only wish that the PGA Tour goes back to Harding Park on a regular bases.  The one thing that I would like to see is the tournament move around, but that won’t happen for at least four years as Austin Country Club will be the new home of this event at least through 2019.

Things you need to know about the Players Championship:

This week we have the crowing jewel of the PGA Tour, The Players. This is the 42nd edition of the Players Championship, which has been played at the TPC Stadium Course every year since 1982. Other than the four majors, it’s the fifth most important tournament in men’s professional golf.  The big news is what will be different for the players.  How will the course play this year?  Will it be firm and fast as officials hope.  Even with the bad weather over the last couple of weeks, officials feel they can get the course dry and fast for Thursday’s opening round. One thing that will help scoring low is the lack of wind, it’s suppose to be minimal all week.

Many may feel that it takes a lot of experience to win the Players, since the event moved to the Stadium course, 13 different players in their 20s have won, including last year’s champion Martin Kaymer.  The list is impressive: Jerry Pate in 1982, Hal Sutton in 1983, Fred Couples in 1984, Sandy Lyle in 1987, Jodie Mudd in 1990, Steve Elkington in 1991, Davis Love III in 1992, Justin Leonard in 1998, David Duval in 1999, Tiger Woods in 2001, Adam Scott in 2004, Sergio Garcia in 2008 and Martin Kaymer in 2014.  Need I also bring up that guys like Craig Perks, Fred Funk, Henrik Stenson and Tim Clark have also won so anything can happen this week.

Course information:

The Players Stadium Course

• Ponte Vedra Beach, Fl.
• 7,215 yards     Par 36-36–72
• TPC Sawgrass features a course rating of 76.8 and a slope rating from the back tees of 155. The tees and fairways are Celebration bermudagrass while the rough is 419 bermudaGrass.  The greens is Mini Verde Ultrdwarf which has become very popular in the Southeast. The course was the 25th hardest course on the PGA Tour in 2014, playing to an average of 72.155, just over a tenth of a shot over par.  In 2013 Sawgrass was the 19th hardest course on the PGA Tour in 2013 playing to an average of 72.323, so just over a quarter of a shot over par.

Rank compared to

Year    Scoring avg    other courses

2014       72.155               25th

2013       72.323               19th

2012       72.466               19th

2011       72.000              23rd

2010       71.804              28th

2009       72.690              12th

2008       74.286               6th

2007       73.248              12th

2006       73.529                7th

2005       72.841               17th

2004       73.004             12th

2003       72.541               21st

2002       73.500              3rd

2001       73.536               3rd

2000       74.451              2nd

1999       74.642               3rd

1998       73.375               7th

• Between 1998 and 2006 TPC Sawgrass played to a 73.491 average.  After 2007 to the present the course played to a 72.622 average.  Why the three quarters of a shot difference?  Because the course changed from being played in March, the windy part of the year in Ponte Vedra to May which see’s calmer days.  So the course is playing a lot easier than when the event was played in March.
• The course opened in 1981 and hosted The Players Championship in 1982.  That year the course was very “raw” with a lot of complaints from the players that the greens and landing areas had too much slope.  Winds in the early days didn’t help ease the pain of the mounds, but over the years improvements have made the course more “player-friendly”.
• Over the years, the TPC Sawgrass has gone from a course the players didn’t care much about to one of the most loved, but toughest courses on Tour.  With the advent of the Players moving to May, the course went through an extensive renovation in 2007 in which all of the grass on the tees, fairways and greens were stripped off with a new drainage and irrigation system placed underneath. The greens were built with a sub-air system just like the one at Augusta National, which can control firmness in any weather conditions.
• At the same time, 122 yards was added to the course and the rough is now Bermuda instead of rye.
• With all of this, plus the new clubhouse, it gave the Players a new dimension in making it one of the best tournaments in the world, with the possibility of it one day being considered a major.
• A couple of things to be know, the average green size is 4,500 which is small and makes the targets harder.  With small greens that places more emphasis on shotmaking, but you have to be good in getting it up and down.  Water is on all 18 holes, but for the pro’s only comes into play on 11 holes. There are a total of 93 bunkers around the course along with a lot of waste areas in the fairways.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Players Championship:

Key stat for the winner:

• Craig Perks blew the greatest stat the tournament had going for it with his win in 2002.  Before his victory, nobody had ever won the Players without a win on the PGA Tour.  On top of that since 1982 when the players switch to the Stadium course their have been 28 different winners with 17 of them winning 40 major championships. Still the fact is if the course is dry and firm without rain hampering it the cream always rises to the top.   Just look at the list of champions at TPC Sawgrass, Sutton, Couples, Kite, Love, Norman, Leonard, Garcia, Duval, Mickelson and Woods. Not a bad list.  But the one thing they have in common is firm and fast conditions so if that happens this year look for a marquee winner.  Oh Craig Perks has some company as Tim Clark became the second player to win for the first time at the Players Championship.

Totally useless stat:

• One of the biggest oddities of The Players Championship is the fact that nobody has ever repeated as champion. If you go back and look at all the tournaments that started before 1998, the only other one like this is was the U.S. Bank Championship in Milwaukee which is no longer played.  Six players have won this event multiple times, but none in consecutive years. Nicklaus is the only three-time winner (1974, 1976, 978). Two-time winners include Tiger Woods (2001, 2013), Steve Elkington (1991, 1997), Hal Sutton (1983, 2000), Fred Couples (1984, 1996) and Davis Love III (1992, 2003).
• The most unusual winner of the Players has to be Sandy Lyle who won it in a playoff in 1987.  We say unusual because of his 13 starts he only made three cuts, his win in 1987, a T74th in 1994 and a T70th in 1997.  Now Craig Perks only made two cuts in six tries but after winning the 2002 Players he finished T17th the next year.

So what does it take to win at the Players?

• Going back to 2000, every winner but four has been in the top-10 of greens hit category and five of them have led (Sergio Garcia-2008, Stephen Ames-2006, Fred Funk-2005, Adam Scott-2004, Hal Sutton-2000). In 2012 Matt Kuchar was T3rd in hitting 53 of the 72 greens, in 2013 Tiger Woods was also T3rd hitting 55 of 72 greens.  Last year Martin Kaymer also finished 3rd, hitting 54 of 72 greens.
• Great putting is a must for the week. The greens are always tough and fast and historically players have had a tough time making putts inside of ten feet.  In looking at the rankings, last year TPC Sawgrass was the 33rd hardest course in making putts inside of ten feet with an average of 88.31%. In the past, number of putts hasn’t been the key as between 2004 and 2010 nobody was in the top-ten in number of putts made. K.J. Choi broke that streak finishing T6th in 2011 with only 108 putts, while Kuchar was T5th in 2012 with 110 putts.  In 2013 Tiger Woods was T35th taking 114 putts while last year Martin Kaymer also took 114 putts which ranked T38th
• Scrambling is important, no matter how well a player does he will still miss greens and have to be able to get it up and down to win.  Last year TPC Sawgrass was the 13th hardest course to get it up and down as the field averaged getting it up and down 55.41%  There are a lot of tough chips on this course and it will take a lot of chip and runs instead of pitching it in the air.
• As of right now there are are 19 first-time participants at this year’s Players Championship. The players teeing it up for the first time at TPC Sawgrass are Daniel Berger First time in this event Victor Dubuisson, Derek Fathauer, Brice Garnett, Adam Hadwin, Billy Hurley III, Ryo Ishikawa, Kevin Kisner, Brooks Koepka, Anirban Lahiri, Danny Lee, Shane Lowry, Ben Martin, Robert Streb, Andrew Svoboda, Nick Taylor, Brendon Todd, Bernd Wiesberger and Danny Willett are playing for the first time in this event  Of the 19 playing this year I can’t see any of them having a clear choice shot of winning this year.
• Lastly the 17th hole has been downright boring the last couple of years, will it get better?  The reputation of the 17th hole was pure fright.  Hitting to the island green was always hard and in some years it’s been downright scary. In the last 33 players there have been six holes-in-one on the hole, but oddly their hasn’t been one since 2002 with Miguel Angel Jimenez.  Now it’s been a house of horrors as there have been 895 double bogeys and 229 scores of triple-bogey or higher.  Since keeping records in 2003, 553 balls have found a watery grave on the short par 3. The worst was in 2007 when 93 found a watery grave.  Last year saw the least with only 28, that being achieved because of the lack of wind. 2009 was a low year as only 30 balls got wet while in 2010 only 29 went in the water. In 2011 40 balls found the water around the green while in 2012 39 went in. 2013 saw 44 finding the water and if your wondering why, it’s off course due to wind. If you get no wind like last year, less balls in the water.  But when the wind gets brisk you see lot’s of balls in the water like 93 in 2007.   So the answer is easy, if there is a lack of wind this week the 17th will play easier.  Still come Sunday no matter what the conditions are there is that special mystic of playing the 17th on the final day while in contention. So 17 has seen the most balls in the water since 2003.  What is second?  That is 18 with 532 followed by the 16th hole with 374.  So in doing the math, since 2003 the 16th, 17th and 18th holes have been played 5,231 times so with 1,459 in the water for a 27.9% of the time.  So the chances of getting your ball wet on those holes on any given round is a shade over 1 in 4.
• Now I don’t want to jinx the tournament, but weather in Ponte Vedra should be picture-perfect for three of the four days of the championship,  with a 50% chance of afternoon thunderstorms on Friday. Also good is the fact that wind will be below 12 MPH each of the days of play.