BlogWells Fargo Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

A lot of people are chiming in on how last week’s Players Championship was one of the best tournaments of the year.  Funny how things change from year to year, in this column for the Wells Fargo last year I was writing the opposite on how the Tour was starting to look more like the Web.Com tour with unknown winners.  In a way I agree with most on how great the Players Championship was, lot’s of drama the whole day.  At the same time about half of the tournaments on the PGA Tour in 2015 have been a good watch.  Just remember the week before we had five great days of golf at the Match Play with Rory McIlroy winning.  The week before that in New Orleans, which hasn’t seen a stellar winner in a couple of years, they had Justin Rose winning.  Also little do we forget that Jim Furyk won the Heritage, Jordan Spieth won an exciting Masters and Dustin Johnson won the WGC-Cadillac.  So you see the tour is doing really well and each week seems to have a great story.

Things you need to know about the WellS Fargo:

This is the 13th year of the Wells Fargo Championship, which is played at Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, North Carolina.  The course was the site of the Kemper Open from 1969 through 1979 before it was moved to Washington D.C.  With the advent of Wachovia coming into the picture and Quail Hollow being used, the tournament gained instant recognition and has been one of the most popular events on tour, not only in player attendance but with spectators as well. For the ninth year in a row the event is sold out.

In 2008 Wachovia was bought out by Wells Fargo and with the problems associated with banks sponsoring tournaments Wells Fargo decided to take the Wachovia name off the tournament.  Wells Fargo continued to sponsor the tournament after its purchase of Wachovia, but dropped it’s name and decided to be pretty hands off and more of a background player. In 2011 they got more involved and put there name back into the event.  The owners of Quail Hollow seemed more interested in having a major, getting the 2017 PGA Championship.  But they are now just as excited about this event.

Course information:

Quail Hollow Golf Club

Charlotte, N.C.

• 7,562 yards     Par 36-36–72
• Quail Hollow features a course rating of 75.0 and a slope rating from the back tees of 140. The tees, fairway, and rough are 419 bermudaGrass with Perennial Ryegrass.  The greens were changed after last years event and are Mini Verde Ultrdwarf.
• The main reason that the players love this event is because of the course. Located in Charlotte, North Carolina it’s considered one of the most exclusive clubs in America and in the players’ eyes one of the best challenges. Many consider it a “U.S. Open-type” venue as it was the 13th hardest course on the PGA Tour in 2014 with a 72.546 average which is a half a shot over par.  In 2013 it was the 10th hardest course on the PGA Tour playing to a 73.043 average which is 1.043 strokes over par. Over the years, players loved the course so much that the word filtered down and help get more marquee players to come, but in the last couple of years that trend has changed as less marquee names are showing up.
• The property was originally a dairy farm owned by former North Carolina Governor Cameron Morrison. In the late 1950s, a group of affluent men decided to create a private club patterned after the Peachtree Golf Club in Atlanta. George Cobb was recruited to design the course and it opened in June, 1961. In order to attract members, one of the founding members enlisted the help of a close friend, Arnold Palmer. Palmer liked the course so much, he was instrumental in bringing the Kemper Open to Quail Hollow. The event was played there from 1969-79, then abruptly moved to Washington, D.C. in 1980.
• Palmer didn’t forget Quail Hollow. When he began playing the Champions Tour in 1980, he worked to bring the Paine Webber Invitational to Quail Hollow, where it was played between 1983-88.  Palmer tinkered with the course in the late ’80s, but a major renovation was done by Tom Fazio in 1997.
• The average green size is 6,500, which is about average and the course is dotted with 62 bunkers.  Water comes into play on six holes (7, 14, 15, 16, 17 and 18).  Along with the changing of the greens course architect Tom Fazio made some changes two years ago to the 8th hole making it play straight and now is potentially a drive-able par 4.  He also made a major change to 16, adding 18 yards to the hole and bringing the lake more into play, making it a lot tougher.  He also changed 17, moving the tee to the right and adding 20 yards to the hole.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Wells Fargo Championship:

Key stat for the winner:

Since the course will play at more than 7,500 yards, the “experts” will say bombers hold an advantage. But as you will see length is not the only strength you need to play well at Quail Hollow. But three of the 12 winners (Jim Furyk, David Toms and Joey Sindelar) do not have the reputation as long hitters even though the 2005 winner Vijay Singh, Tiger Woods, Anthony Kim, Sean O’Hair, Rory McIlroy, Derek Ernst and last year’s champion J.B. Holmes do hit it long.  So it’s a 50/50 proposition on if longer hitters have an advantage.

Other things to think about on the Wells Fargo Championship:

• This is one of those courses that will get you ready for a U.S. Open.  As a matter of fact it would be a perfect Open venue because of its length, tight fairways with three-inch plus rough, tree line and fast undulating greens.  It always ranks as one of the toughest courses on tour.
• Accuracy will probably again not be a factor if you look at the statistics of the 12 winners.  Last year J.B. Holmes finished T53rd while Derek Ernst finished T13th in accuracy which is fourth best of all the champions in accuracy just above 2003 winner David Toms will was T2nd, 2012 winner Rickie Fowler who was T2nd followed by 2006 winner Jim Furyk who was 3rd.  Looking at this myth of driving accuracy on a course like Quail Hollow, things have changed.  Even though in past years fairways were very narrow and earned the reputation as narrowest on tour, of the 20 players that finished in the top-five in the tournament’s first three years, 15 of them finished in the top-20 of the driving accuracy category.  Things changed drastically in 2006 when only five players out of the top 21 finished in the top-ten of the driving distance category.  In 2007 it was even worse as only two of the top-20 finished high in fairway accuracy.  Things did improve in 2008 as five of the top-fifteen were in the top-ten in driving accuracy but with all of the rain the fairways were soft and help cause that.  In 2009 and 2010 only one player in the top-ten was in the top-ten in driving accuracy so it looked like just because you see tight fairways doesn’t mean you have to hit it straight. But the trend changed.  In 2011 and 2012 four of the top-ten were in the top-ten in driving accuracy, while in 2013 five of the top-15 were in the top-ten so maybe accuracy is becoming more important off the tee. In 2014 only one top-ten finisher was in the top-ten in accuracy, so don’t look for a straight winner.
• Hitting greens will be at a premium, just like in a U.S. Open hitting lots of greens goes a long way in this event.  Look for the winner to hit globs of greens this week, in the first six years Anthony Kim was the only player out of the top-11 in this stat, he finished T17th in greens hit in 2008.  In 2009 Sean O’Hair was T3rd while in 2010 Rory McIlroy was T4th.  In 2011 Lucas Glover was T27th, Rickie Fowler was T5th in 2012 while Derek Ernst was T3rd in 2013 and J.B. Holmes was T29th in 2014.
• So is there any rhyme or reason to players?  Frankly being a shot maker doesn’t give you an edge, but there is one stat that you can gauge a winner.  Not only are the fairways at Quail Hollow hard to hit (4th hardest on tour last year, no higher than 8th last 11 years) but it’s been hard getting it close to the hole on shots into the green.  Last year the proximity to the hole was 41 feet, 7 inches making it the 2nd hardest course on tour in getting it close.  This stat is the norm for Quail Hollow, it was 2nd in 2013, 3rd in 2012 and 1st in 2011 & ’10. So looking for a good choice look for those that lead the strokes gained from tee to green category.
• Good putters should have a field day this week. Green speeds were lowered in 2008 and Anthony Kim was 2nd in total putts.  But it popped up in 2009 as Sean O’Hair was T47th, the worst of any champion.  In 2010 McIlroy was T38th in this category while in 2011 Glover was 3rd.  In 2012 Fowler was T40th while in 2013 Derek Ernst was T34th. Last year J.B. Holmes was T4th in total putts.
•  The course is demanding but as it goes into year 13 the pros are starting to learn it better and shoot lower scores.  In the first three years the winning score has come down a stroke a year except for in 2006 when it stayed the same at 276. In 2007 Tiger Woods broke the tournament record shooting 275, while Anthony Kim brought things even lower with his 272 total.  The next year McIlroy shot 273 the same score as Lucas Glover did in 2011.  But with the advent of the 2017 PGA being played on the course it’s had some changes as Rickie Fowler shot 274 in 2012 with Derek Ernst jumping up to 280 in 2013.  Last year Holmes was back at 274.
• One of the keys to mastering Quail Hollow is playing well on the final four holes. Showing the difficultly of this stretch dubbed the “The Green Mile”, holes 16, 17 and 18 have been in the top-70 of the PGA Tour’s hardest holes.  Throw in the par 5, 15th it’s a challenging stretch in which the last five champions have excelled on.  How good, last year J.B. Holmes played the stretch in 3 under, in 2013 Derek Ernst was four under, in 2012 Rickie Fowler was 3 under, in 2011 Lucas Glover was 1 under and in 2010 Rory McIlroy was 3 under..
• Now I don’t want to jinx the tournament, but weather in North Carolina should be picture-perfect for the first three days of the championship, despite all of the bad weather in the mid-west and eastern seaboard.  Sunday has a 60% chance of afternoon thunderstorms.