BlogJohn Deere Classic Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

Anybody else as shocked by Rory McIlroy’s injury as me?  One of the things that was great about Tiger, you knew he wouldn’t be out with some stupid injury.  I remember in 1992 when a young Phil Mickelson went skiing and broke his leg, guess what you never seen him on any major slopes, it’s the bunny slopes with the kids for him.  The same with Jack Nicklaus, he did do a fair amount of skiing when he got older, but you you know he didn’t take any chances.

Yes McIlroy is 26 years old and will hopefully all the damage will heal, but come on how can you take a chance like this.  I can see playing soccer but you think he was too extreme and that is one of the reasons for the injury.  Guess it doesn’t matter, golf will go on without him but we were really looking forward to some one on one between McIlroy and Jordan.  For years we tried to get a Tiger/Phil match-up or a Tiger/Ernie or Tiger/Sergio and it never seemed to happen  Maybe it’s not in the cards for a Rory/Jordan match-up.

I have to get my knee replaced and I placed a call to the surgeon that is doing it, he is a big golf fan.  He was also disappointed that Rory didn’t show the common sense to cool it a bit in his game and said that it depends on the severity of the sprain.  As he said, if it’s a “total rupture”, he won’ be able to play golf for at least 2 months.  He also told me not to be surprised if he has to have surgery to repair the damage.  He also said that if the ankle is “ruptured” he won’t be back in ten days, unless the R&A let’s him play from a cart and with a big brace on the leg.

A shame isn’t it?

The good news, anyone see how good Tiger played?  His seven under total was his best 72 hole total since his nine under total when he finished T-11th in the 2013 BMW Championship.  Now I know it’s only one 72 hole tournament, but can we say that Tiger could be one of the favorites for the British?  I would say yes, St. Andrews is the widest course in the world so driving isn’t a problem.  If Tiger gets hot with the putter and doesn’t have any chipping problems, he can contend.  He has won twice on the course and we can say that the course plays perfectly for Tiger.  So who knows, Tiger could be a force next week.

Now on to the John Deere.

Of course each week is important, but for 14 of the 156 playing in the John Deere, this will be there final prep before the British Open.  One of the reasons this is possible is because the folks that run the John Deere will have a waiting jet on Sunday evening that will whisk the players directly to Edinburgh, Scotland which is an hour drive from St. Andrews.  This has been an on going “perk” for John Deere players since 2007 and is considered one of the biggest perks that events give players.  Matter of fact it’s so popular that the Canadian Open, played the week after the British has a plane that will whisk players from England to Canada on Sunday night after the completion of play at St. Andrews.

One thing that is growing is the debate on if Jordan Speith should play at the John Deere and then take the charter.  Many feel this isn’t the right way of getting ready for ready for the British Open, which could be his third straight major win.  The only player to win the Masters, U.S. Open and British in one year is Ben Hogan in 1953.  Back then Hogan spent close to two weeks in Carnoustie to get ready for that Open, including having to qualify a couple of days before.  But times are different, Speith has played at St. Andrews and feels that he can prepare better playing the John Deere and then taking the overnight flight over.  One thing, he is only 21 and going on this John Deere charter is easier that going over commercially.  Now here are some of the reasons that maybe he should think otherwise on this.  Since the first charter in 2007, nobody has gone over and won.  The first year that John Deere was played the week before the British was in 2004 and that year Todd Hamilton played the Deere, got himself to Troon and just happened to win, beating Ernie Els in a playoff.  But since then nobody has won the British after playing the week before at the Deere.  Now another reason that maybe it’s not a good idea for Spieth is his performance at his two Open Championships.  In 2013 he won the John Deere and got the last spot in the British.  He finished T-44th at Muirfield.  The next year Spieth finished T-7th at the Deere, took the charter to Hoylake and finished T36th.  So who really knows what is right or wrong on this topic, but many will blame a bad performance for Spieth at St. Andrews on having to play the week before.

Here is a chart on what the last eleven Open champions did the week bfore winning the British

• 2014 – Rory McIlroy: Finished T-14th the week before at the Scottish Open.
• 2013 – Phil Mickelson: Won the week before at the Scottish Open.
• 2012 – Ernie Els: Finished T-52nd the week before at the Scottish Open.
• 2011 – Darren Clarke: Finished T-66th the week before at the Scottish Open.
• 2010 – Louis Oosthuizen: Missed the cut the week before at the Scottish Open.
• 2009 – Stewart Cink: Hadn’t played in three weeks befor winning the Open.
• 2008 – Padraig Harrington: Won the week before in the Irish PGA.
• 2007 – Padraig Harrington: Won the week before in the Irish PGA.
• 2006 – Tiger Woods: Hadn’t played in a week before winning the Open
• 2005 – Tiger Woods: Hadn’t played in a week before winning the Open
• 2004 – Todd Hamilton: Finished T-59th at the John Deere.

History of the John Deere

• The John Deere Classic was created in 1971. Founded by a businessman in Davenport, Iowa, it began as a satellite PGA event known as the Quad City Open. It stayed in Davenport through 1974, where it subsequently moved to the Oakwood Country Club in Coal Valley, Iowa. The John Deere Classic remained in Coal Valley until 2000, where the move to Silvis coincided with the opening of TPC Deere Run.
• The John Deere Classic took center stage in 2005 when Michelle Wie attempted to become the first woman to make a PGA cut since Babe Didrikson Zaharias. After a first round 1-under, Wie found herself in prime position to make the cut. Through 14 holes in round 2, Wie was 3-under for the day, 4-under for the tournament. Her momentum dissipated on Number 15 as she proceeded to severely pull her drive, then from their chip into a bunker and eventually, made double bogey. Wie ended up missing the cut by one shot.
• Since 1997, the event has been the week before the British Open were it was always a struggled to get a good field of players.  In 2008 tournament organizers came up with a plan that help attract players.  They made a charter flight available in which players would be able to leave the Sunday after play.  It was a comfortable journey as players enjoy big business class seats with very little hassle in getting to the British Islands, since the plane landed at an airport near the venue of the championship.  The charter has been a big hit and help the tournament land a lot of marquee names.
• The tournament began as the Quad Cities Open in 1971 and was a “satellite event” on the PGA Tour. It became an official tour event in 1972. Title sponsors have included Ed McMahon (1974–79), Miller Brewing Company (1982–85), Hardee’s (1986–94) and John Deere (since 1999).

Course information

TPC Deere Run

• Silvis, Il.
• 7,268 yards     Par 35-36–71
• Course rating is 75.6 rating with a slope rating of 145 fron the championship tees. The course is part of a TPC network and is open to outside play.  It also sells local memberships.
• Long before golfers began traveling to TPC Deere Run, native Americans migrated there. They came to this western Illinois location for the bounty of wildlife, the proximity to the Rock River and for the natural beauty of rolling hills and wooded ravines.
• In more recent times, the property became Friendship Farm, one of the top Arabian horse breeding operations in the U.S. As a result, the property was maintained in its most natural beauty and provided a near perfect setting for the property’s destination today, a golf course that appears to have been here for over a 100 years.
• TPC Deere Run boasts a bit of old-time philosophy and feel to the golf course, which stretches to 7,213 yards, an intimidating length for a par-71 track. Some 74 bunkers are strategically placed throughout the course and vary in depth and shape. There are a few blind shots and chipping areas to confound the best players. There are gentle doglegs, requiring precision more than power.
• The natural features of the former horse farm high above the Rock River Valley have not been compromised and the Rock River is visible on nine holes. D.A. Weibring, the course designer, extracted a few trees (less than 20 percent), but he essentially left the property, with its dramatic pitches and rolls, intact. The course inhabits roughly 170 acres, but Weibring and design associate Chris Gray disturbed less than 60 acres during construction.
• In 2014 the TPC Deere Run was the 42nd hardest course (out of 48) on the PGA Tour playing to a 69.764 average.
• In 2013 the TPC Deere Run was the 36th hardest course on the PGA Tour playing to a 69,397.
• So the course is easy, in 2014 1,844 birdies (along with 56 eagles) were made during the week, the most birdies made on any course on the PGA Tour last year.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the John Deere Classic:

Key stat for the winner:

Hitting lots of greens.  Since the course was first used in 2000, the winners have finished T-5th (Michael Clark II), 4th (David Goosett), 1st (J.P. Hayes), T-5th (Vijay Singh), T-23rd (Mark Hensby), T-2nd (Sean O’Hair) and T-2nd (John Senden) in greens hit showing that if you hit a lot of greens, you will do well.  Yes Jonathan Byrd finished T-25th in 2007 and Kenny Perry finished T-22nd in 2008, Steve Stricker was T-14th in 2009, T-11th in 2010, T-33rd in 2011, Zach Johnson was T26th in 2012 while Jordan Spieth was T34th in 2013 but Brian Harman was T-1st last year.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

• Even though the fairways aren’t that demanding, for J.P. Hayes (2002),Mark Hensby (2004) and Sean O’Hair (2005) this has proven to help in there victories.  For the rest of the champions since 1997 they all are between 15th and 49th.  In 2010 Stricker was T-18th, hitting 41 of the 56 fairways, while in 2011 he was T-58th hitting just 36 of 56 fairways. Zach Johnson was T-31st with 41 of 56 while in 2013 Spieth was T-19th in greens hit with 43 of 56.  Last year Brian Harman was T-8th hitting 45 of 56 fairways.
• Being in the lead after the third round doesn’t guarantee a victory, especially at the John Deere.  Since 1995 only eight players won, David Toms in 1997, David Gossett in 2001, J.P. Hayes in 2002,  John Senden in 2006 , Kenny Perry in 2009, Steve Stricker in 2010/2011 and Brian Harman in 2014.  In 2012 Zach Johnson was T-3rd going into the final round, while Jordan Spieth was T9th, six back of third round leader Daniel Summerhays in 2013.   So don’t count on the third round leader to win.
• The myth of the John Deere was always think an underdog or new player that has never won before will win the Deere.  In looking at the winners since the event moved to the TPC course in 2000 between then and 2007 only one true favorite Vijay Singh in 2003 was victorious.  But since the British Open charter went into effect you have marquee names like Kenny Perry in 2008, Steve Stricker in 2009, ’10 & ’11 along with Zach Johnson and Jordan Spieth winning.  So you can see how perks like a special charter can really change the outlook of a tournament.
• The tournament has the overall reputation of first time winners.  Since 1973, 20 rookie winners including eight of the last 16 (J.L. Lewis in 1999, Michael Clark in 2000, David Gossett in 2001, Mark Hensby in 2004, Sean O’Hair, John Senden in 2006, Jordan Spieth in 2013 and Brian Harman in 2014) have won the John Deere so even though the event has had proven champions win the last six years you never know.
• One last important element, the winner this week will be making lot’s of birdies.  The TPC Deere Run gave up 1,676 birdies in 2007, 1,714 in 2008 and in 2009 along with 1,810 in 2010, 1,915 in 2011 (most of any course that year), 1,894 in 2012 (again the most on the PGA Tour in 2012), 1,930 in 2013 and 1,844 in 2014, the most of any course on the PGA Tour in ’14.  So look for those that have a high birdie average for the year.
• The weather has been wet over the course of the last month in the Silvis area so the course will be soft and play longer.  It won’t be terrible this week, Thursday and Friday could have afternoon showers and thunder, but the weekend looks clead and sunny.
• Also like it is this time of year there could be pop-up thunderstorms in the afternoon.