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BlogCanadian Open Preview and Picks

RBC Canadian Open

July 23rd – 26th, 2015

Glen Abbey G.C.

Oakville, Ontario, Canada

Par: 72 / Yardage: 7,253

Purse: $5.8 million

with $1,044,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Tim Clark

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This week’s field includes:

Sorry if we are a bit late with this, but with the British going an extra day and travel on a ferry to Ireland and lack of proper internet, took a bit longer than usual.  So please pardon if this is late and a bit shorter than usual. Next week (pre-Quick Loans) could also be late, on Tuesday morning since I am flying back home from Paris on Monday.

The field includes 9 of the top 50 in the latest Official World Rankings, with three of the top-ten in the field: Bubba Watson, Jim Furyk and Jason Day.  There are three players ranked 11 to 25, top-25 players in the field: J.B. Holmes, Matt Kuchar and Brooks Koepka.  There are three players from 26 to 50 in the rankings, they are Ryan Palmer, Hunter Mahan and Charley Hoffman.

The field includes 6 of the Top 25 on this year’s FedEx Cup point list:  Those players include Bubba Watson, J.B. Holmes, Charley Hoffman, Jason Day, Scott Piercy and Jim Furyk.

The field includes 6 of the Top 25 on this year’s PGA Tour money list:  Those players include Bubba Watson, J.B. Holmes, Charley Hoffman, Jason Day, Brooks Koepka and Jim Furyk.

The field includes 8 past champions: Tim Clark (2014), Scott Piercy (2012), Sean O’Hair (2011),  Chez Reavie (2008), Jim Furyk (2006 & ’07), Vijay Singh (2004), John Rollins (2002) and Scott Verplank (2001).

A perfect way for fantasy golfers to check on the past performance of all the players in the RBC Canadian Open field is our performance chart listed by average finish.  Another way to check who is the best is through a special formula worked out in Golfstats that gives us the best average performances at RBC Canadian Open in the last five years or check out our sortable 8-year glance at the RBC Canadian Open.

A good cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmakers in England.

Another cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmaker in Las Vegas.

**NOTE**

One thing to look for is our new GOLFstats IQ.  For those that play in fantasy golf it’s a perfect way to help you pick those players in Draft Kings and Victiv games.  You can customize the list of those in the tournaments, to look back a couple or many years of tournament stats and you can go back a couple or ten weeks prior to the tournament.  On top of that, all the stats are fully sortable to help you pick your six players, we even give you their value for the week to help you chose.

That’s GOLFstats IQ, give it a try and tell us what you think of it

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Time to look at our who’s hot and who isn’t:

Who’s Hot in the field for the RBC Canadian Open

Player British Open Barbasol John Deere Scottish Open The Greenbrier French Open Travelers BMW Intern. U.S. Open FedEx St. Jude Memorial Nordea Masters Byron Nelson
Brooks Koepka
(222 pts)
T10
(80)
DNP DNP T22
(28)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T18
(42.67)
T3
(60)
T52
(0)
DNP T16
(11.33)
Jason Day
(216.67 pts)
T4
(160)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T9
(60)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP
Scott Piercy
(184 pts)
DNP Win
(132)
T14
(36)
DNP T29
(21)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP WD
(-1.67)
Luke Donald
(181.67 pts)
T12
(76)
DNP DNP T7
(55)
DNP DNP T7
(36.67)
DNP T58
(0)
T29
(14)
DNP DNP DNP
Greg Owen
(181.33 pts)
T20
(60)
DNP DNP DNP T6
(60)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP 2
(66.67)
DNP DNP T46
(1.33)
Will Wilcox
(168 pts)
DNP 2
(100)
T8
(50)
DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP T12
(25.33)
DNP DNP T22
(9.33)
Matt Kuchar
(162.33 pts)
T58
(0)
DNP DNP T2
(100)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T12
(50.67)
DNP T26
(8)
DNP T39
(3.67)
Andres Romero
(131.33 pts)
DNP T10
(40)
DNP DNP T6
(60)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T14
(48)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Chris Stroud
(127.33 pts)
DNP T32
(18)
T5
(70)
DNP T37
(13)
DNP T10
(26.67)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
T31
(6.33)
DNP DNP
Tony Finau
(121.67 pts)
DNP DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP T13
(37)
DNP T25
(16.67)
DNP T14
(48)
DNP T8
(16.67)
DNP T10
(13.33)
Johnson Wagner
(111.33 pts)
DNP T10
(40)
T5
(70)
DNP T32
(18)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Scott Langley
(99.33 pts)
DNP T16
(34)
T35
(15)
DNP T13
(37)
DNP T25
(16.67)
DNP DNP DNP T68
(0)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Matt Jones
(96.67 pts)
T30
(40)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP T3
(60)
T40
(3.33)
DNP T64
(0)
Bubba Watson
(91.67 pts)
CUT
(-20)
DNP DNP DNP T13
(37)
DNP Win
(88)
DNP CUT
(-13.33)
DNP DNP DNP DNP
Ryan Palmer
(91 pts)
T30
(40)
DNP DNP T31
(19)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T52
(0)
T22
(18.67)
DNP DNP T10
(13.33)
Seung-Yul Noh
(90.67 pts)
DNP DNP T50
(1)
DNP T37
(13)
DNP T20
(20)
DNP DNP T3
(60)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP
Retief Goosen
(88 pts)
T20
(60)
DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T4
(53.33)
CUT
(-13.33)
CUT
(-6.67)
T31
(6.33)
DNP WD
(-1.67)
Kevin Chappell
(87.33 pts)
DNP DNP T8
(50)
DNP T37
(13)
DNP DNP DNP T46
(5.33)
T22
(18.67)
T49
(0.33)
DNP DNP
Ollie Schniederjans
(86.67 pts)
T12
(76)
DNP DNP T77
(0)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T42
(10.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP
Graham Delaet
(83.67 pts)
T68
(0)
DNP DNP DNP T37
(13)
DNP 4
(53.33)
DNP DNP DNP T26
(8)
DNP T22
(9.33)
Chad Campbell
(83.67 pts)
DNP T48
(2)
T28
(22)
DNP T37
(13)
DNP T25
(16.67)
DNP DNP T8
(33.33)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Whee Kim
(76.67 pts)
DNP T3
(90)
CUT
(-10)
DNP T67
(0)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP T45
(3.33)
DNP DNP T82
(0)
Austin Cook
(75.33 pts)
DNP T6
(60)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T22
(18.67)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Jim Furyk
(74 pts)
T30
(40)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T42
(10.67)
DNP T5
(23.33)
DNP DNP
Ricky Barnes
(70 pts)
DNP T3
(90)
CUT
(-10)
DNP T67
(0)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)

How Player Rankings are Computed

Who’s Not Hot in the field for the RBC Canadian Open

Player British Open Barbasol John Deere Scottish Open The Greenbrier French Open Travelers BMW Intern. U.S. Open FedEx St. Jude Memorial Nordea Masters Byron Nelson
Richard Sterne
(-43 pts)
DNP CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T39
(3.67)
Matt Every
(-40 pts)
CUT
(-20)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP WD
(-6.67)
WD
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP
Oscar Fraustro
(-40 pts)
DNP CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP 73
(0)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Heath Slocum
(-40 pts)
DNP CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP T69
(0)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Lucas Glover
(-40 pts)
DNP DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-13.33)
T53
(0)
T68
(0)
DNP DNP
Andrew Svoboda
(-34.67 pts)
DNP T48
(2)
CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
T57
(0)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Carlos Sainz Jr.
(-34.67 pts)
DNP T48
(2)
CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Troy Merritt
(-33.33 pts)
DNP DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
T52
(0)
DNP DNP
Nick Taylor
(-30 pts)
DNP DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP
Carlos Ortiz
(-30 pts)
DNP T58
(0)
CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T73
(0)

How Player Rankings are Computed

The Buzz:

I don’t know with all of the delays and the inconsistent weather if we call last week’ British Open great.  It did have a lot of drama in the final round and they got a great champion in Zach Johnson.  What a gutsy final round, he played like a true champ making the right shots and putts at the right time.

Hats off to Jordan Spieth, boy he made a great run, only getting derailed with that four putt on 8 and his missed par putt at 17.  As we sit back and realize all of the accomplishments that Spieth has done, we wonder if he is that good, or some teenage superstar that really doesn’t know that much.  He turns 22 this week and has shown us a game we haven’t seen since Tiger Woods.  But it took Woods 12 years before he showed being human in the majors, when Y.E. Yang got the best of him at Hazeltine during the 1999 PGA.

We don’t know what the deal with Rory McIlroy really is, fellow countryman Darren Clarke let it slip out last week during the British Golf Writers dinner that Rory will not be back until the start of the year, so we really don’t know what to expect.  I for one don’t think we will see him for Bridgestone and the PGA Championship, guess we will have to wait on news from McIlroy.

As I travel down from Belfast to Dublin for a week of golf, I wonder is Jordan better than Rory?  Yes McIlroy is inconsistent, with big streaks of great play, but he can also play like a stinker at times.  But the question in the next year is if Jordan could be better?  His game looks great now, but when he gets older and wiser and realizes some of the things he is doing, maybe he won’t be that good.  This happened to Hal Sutton, who played great when he was young and naïve and the older he got with more experience the harder it was for him.  Who knows, could happen to Jordan.

We are entering the end of the season and I think that Spieth has wrapped up player of the year honors.  I also think he will be number one in the next month.  Schedule gets crazy, in the next nine weeks we will have a major in the PGA Championship, a WGC event in Bridgestone, then the four FedExcup playoff events.  Oh if that’s not enough, two weeks after the Tour Championship is the Presidents Cup, have to think not many players from America is looking forward to that trip and week of golf in South Korea.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the RBC Canadian Open:

Key stat for the winner:

Those that have played the course before will have a slight edge but the key to the course will be for those to manage the par 4s.  With the 16th playing as a par 4 in 2004 instead of a par 5, it was the 11th toughest hole on the PGA Tour in 2004.  In 2009 as a par 5 it was the 896th rank hole that year on the PGA Tour (out of 918) showing how much easier it is as a par 5.  The 14th hole was the 10th hardest hole on the PGA Tour in 2004 and the 48th hardest in 2009 as it played to a 4.276 average. Both holes will be important for the winner to master.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

  • Over the years Glen Abbey got a reputation as a long hitters kind of course, but if you look at all of the champions since 1990 all but Greg Norman, Tiger Woods and Vijay Singh were short hitters.  Another thing, most of the winners at Glen Abbey fade the ball, that makes sense since five of the six holes that bend go to the right, a Jack Nicklaus design trait.
  • Greens are contoured and well bunkered which means that those that scramble will do very well.</li>
  • Putting seems to be the key to success at Glen Abbey.  Those that have putted well tend to get the nod over players that hit lots of greens.  So a good putter and scrambler will prevail this week.
  • With the last hole being a par 5, it has produced some wild finishes over the years. Final hole birdies were made by Greg Norman in 1992 to get into a playoff, and by David Frost (’93) and Nick Price (’94) to win by one.  ’98 was the most bizarre finish with Andrade winning the playoff with a par, while in  ’99 Hal Sutton birdied the hole three times and made par it in the final round.  2000 will always be tops on the highlight reel for Tiger Woods hitting the prettiest shot from a fairway bunker over the lake to made birdie and nip Grath Waite by a shot while in 2004 Vijay Singh made a birdie, Mike Weir didn’t which forced a playoff which Singh won.  In 2008 Chez Reavie played the hole in three under, including a birdie in the final round, an accomplishment that most of the winners achieve in the final round.
  • The last time that the Canadian Open was held at Glen Abbey in 2013 Brandt Sneaker won.  Unfortunately he withdrew this week.  Before that, Nathan Green was a first time winner in 2009 when the Canadian Open was held at Glen Abbey.  Chez Reavie was also a first time PGA Tour winner in 2008, the last time a first-time winner prevailed at the Canadian Open was in 2002 and previous to that was in 1996 when Dudley Hart won and before that it was in 1981 when Peter Oosterhuis won.  So the RBC Canadian Open at Glen Abbey has favored non-winners, a trend that could continue this year.
  • Now we tend to forget that this is the national open of Canada but it’s been a while since a Canadian has one it, you have to go back to 1954 when Pat Fletcher won it.  Mike Weir came close to winning in 2004, only to give up a lead on the final holes and then lose a playoff to Vijay Singh.  Other than that it’s been a bit bare as Dave Barr finished T4th in 1988, while David Morland IV finished T5th in 2001.   Now Weir has always been the sentimental choice of this event, but for the first time since 1991 Weir won’t be in the field as he still has the injury with his elbow. There will be 16 Canadians in the field some of the other Canadians in the field are: Graham DeLaet, Adam Hadwin, Nick Taylor, Brad Fritsch and David Hearn. Again the big question will be if a Canadian can come to the fro-front this year, 2004 did bring a lot of excitment with Weir almost winning.
  • One last thing, after a couple of weeks of indifferent weather, the Canadian Open will have great weather with clear skies and good temperatures.  Only thing, the winds could be blowing in the afternoon all four days.

 

Who to watch for at the RBC Canadian Open

Best Bets:

Jason Day

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
52 T48

Has been knocking on the door of late, you know he will play great this week.

Matt Kuchar

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
T4 T2 T34 CUT T4 CUT T14

Was T-2nd last time it was played at Glen Abbey. Was T-58th at the British, but the week before was runner-up at the Scottish Open and T-12th at the U.S. Open.

Bubba Watson

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
T21 CUT CUT 76 T14

Now that he is home from Europe it’s time to think about winning again.

Best of the rest:

Jim Furyk

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
2 T9 CUT T34 T14 Win Win

Always seems to find a way to get into the mix in Canada. Has had a good season, will play well this week.

Luke Donald

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
CUT CUT T17 3 T24

On the cusp of putting 72 good holes together, once he does that be tough to beat.

David Hearn

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
T53 T44 T71 T34 CUT T58 T58 T20 CUT CUT CUT

Has to be the top favorite of all the Canadians, lost a playoff just three weeks ago.

J.B. Holmes

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
T15 T16

With all of the par 5s at Glen Abbey he could birdie his way to a top finish.

Solid contenders

Steve Stricker

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
10 CUT CUT T60

Gosh just the fact that he is playing is a novel thought, look for a good week out of him.

Graham DeLaet

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
T7 CUT T56 CUT T46 CUT

Have talked about him winning for the first time all year, be great to do it in his national championship.

Ryan Palmer

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
T31 T19 T24 T64 T22 T3 CUT CUT

Always a guy that a good week could be a win.

Retief Goosen

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
T12 T10 T59 2 T30

Played really well at St. Andrews, could carry over to this week.

Long shots that could come through:

William McGirt

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
T25 T2 T2 T59

Almost won it the last time played at Glen Abbey.

Tony Finau

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
First time playing in this event

Will be ready to go after a week off.

Will Wilcox (withdrew Tuesday, injured wrist)

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
T25 CUT

Almost won last week, could continue to stay hot.

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