BlogDeutsche Bank Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

So it’s the second leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs, and only one exempt players are not participating, Sergio Garcia.  A couple of things about the playoffs that are a bit of a turnoff, last week Jason Day won at the Barclays.  With the win it guarantees Jason Day a top-five points ranking heading into the Tour Championship, meaning that he controls his own destiny and will win the FedEx Cup with a victory at East Lake.  So if Day had chosen not to play this week and at the BMW, he would of still been able to win the FedEx Cup at the Tour Championship.  These playoffs are getting more to do with the Tour Championship than anything else, to win the playoffs you just about have to win at East Lake which I don’t understand.

What is Jordan Spieth thinking of?

Anybody else shocked that last week Jordan Spieth decided to change irons before the Barclays?  Last week Spieth teed off with a new set of Titleist irons, a yet-to-be-released set.  So what happens, he missed the cut?  It was his first new set of irons since the 2013 Quicken Loans and just had me thinking, he had the four playoff events and the Presidents Cup and then a month or two off, why not wait until after the Barclays?  Guess we will never know the process that Spieth went in changing clubs but if he misses the cut this week some will wonder if he made a bad choice.

One last item:

On Monday the teams will be chosen based on their point totals. Tuesday captains Jay Haas and Nick Price will make their two captains picks, so let’s just say that there will be no movement in the top-ten and guess who the two captain picks will be.  As for Haas the big question will be if he wants experience in Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson, because it’s hard to judge who is hot.  I would say that both Woods and Mickelson will be sitting home, for Mickelson he has been in every Ryder Cup/Presidents Cup since his first appearance in the Presidents Cup in it’s first year in 1994.  He has played in all ten Presidents Cup and ten Ryder Cups, his 20 times on these teams is the most of any one player.  So despite the happiness of not having to spend a week in Korea, Mickelson will probably be sadden on not making the team.  As for Woods, his game is just not ready for something like this so I can’t see Captain Haas taking him.  If it was me picking, I would probably go with Brooks Keopka and Robert Streb, both have had a great summer and of those not on the team are playing the best and most consistent.

As for the International team captain Price will be watching to see if Danny Lee or Steven Bowditch get the tenth spot.  The good news is that either way, they both should be on the team so it’s down to the final pick.  I would give the nod to George Coetzee who has been playing the most consistent and probably give the team it’s best hope.

Tournament information:

This is the 13th annual Deutsche Bank Championship. Initially created with the help of IMG, the Tiger Woods Foundation, and the PGA Tour, the Deutsche Bank Championship’s main goal was to raise money for the Tiger Woods Foundation.

As the tournament is held over Labor Day weekend, it has the distinction along with the Hyundai Tournament of Champions to be the only events on the PGA Tour to conclude on a Monday.

Though the event lacks history, its short stint on the PGA Tour has produced some monumental happenings. Most notably: the rivalry between Vijay Singh and Tiger Woods. In 2004, Tiger and Vijay battled down to the final hole. Ultimately, Singh’s 69 was enough to give him the tournament title and the World’s Number One ranking, dethroning Woods after five years of dominance.

In 2006, the rivalry was renewed, and this time, Woods was not to be denied. Singh shot a course record 61 in the third round going into the final round with a three-shot lead over Woods.  Despite shooting a 68, he was still a loser as Woods shot 63 to overcome a three-shot deficit and win the title.

The 2007 event is also memorable with Phil Mickelson holding off the challenge of Tiger Woods, Arron Oberholser and Brett Wetterich.

In 2008 Vijay Singh shot a final round 63 and cruised to a five-shot victory which paved the way for him to win the FedEx Cup.

Since the start of the FedEx Cup, it’s been the second playoff event.  Of the four, this and the Tour Championship are the only events played each year on the same course.  Over the years, it’s grown a nice following as players love the course, the location and the week.

Course information:

The TPC of Boston was opened in June of 2002, it was formerly used for charcoal production for the jewelry, brick and iron industries as well as lumber for ship construction.  Arnold Palmer designed the course, it is your typical TPC layout, very long and pretty generous off the tee.  There are several doglegs that can be carried by long hitters so again advantage to those that hit it long.  The greens are large, and several have multiple tiers making putting more challenging.  But over the years the course has changed dramatically.

As players matriculate back to Boston each year for the Deutsche Bank Championship, they were met with changes made by Gil Hanse and Brad Faxon.  In 2009 changes to the green area and mounding around the 2nd hole.  In 2008 players saw changes to the 4th, 7th and 16th holes.  The changes weren’t as big, mostly cosmetic like mounds being added to the right side of nine.  Also, changes were made to the chipping areas around No. 1 and No. 10 greens. Bunkers also were altered in shape at the fourth and 11th holes. At the latter, a 230-yard par-3, and island of turf was installed in the middle of the large front-right bunker.

The changes made for the 2007 event was well received by the players, most of them liked making the 4th hole a possible drivable par 4. It’s a step in the right direction because in previous years they have been very luke warm on the Arnold Palmer design course.

There are no real major changes to the course for this year.  The course has pretty much been the same for a couple of years now.

Still the course is for the taking, last year the course played to a 70.473 average and was the 34th toughest of the 48 courses used.  So you can see, you have to go low to survive this week.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Deutsche Bank Championship:

Key stats for the winner:

• Now in past years it was obvious that this course was a long hitters haven.  Last year we had Chris Kirk and Henrik Stenson win, both who are in the middle of all driving distance stats but in 2012, we had Rory McIlroy, in 2010 we had Charley Hoffman.  In 2008, it was Vijay Singh while in 2007, it was Phil Mickelson and Tiger Woods in 2006, all very long hitters  Still don’t rule out the short hitters, just look at 2009 winner Steve Stricker, the same with Webb Simpson in 2011.  But he isn’t the only one, the 2005 champion Olin Browne is one of the shorter hitters on tour and 2003 runner-up Rocco Mediate is also short.  In the same breath, it’s safe to say that accuracy doesn’t pay on this course.  In it’s 12 years of being played, of the 153 players that have finished in the top-ten in driving accuracy, only 34 have been in the top-ten.  One more key driving accuracy stat, of the 48 courses used on the PGA Tour it ranked 36th in driving accuracy that means that you can be wild on this course.
• Looking at the stats from its 12-year history, look for those with sharp iron games to produce the best score.  Look for a smart player that doesn’t attack the holes but plays placement golf to win.  Of the 12 winners, three led the greens hit category (winner Henrik Stenson led in 2013) while the first eight of nine winners were in the top-ten.
• Since the event doesn’t start until Friday, players will have an extra day to get use to the course.  Look for those that are starting to practice on Tuesday to rule the roost.
• The greens are 6,000 square feet, which is about average on the PGA Tour. They have a lot of undulation in them, and that could be one of the reasons why winners haven’t dominated the putting stats.
• Looking for that one stat that jumps up and grabs you?  Par 4 average is the key here, TPC Boston is one of the easiest in par 4s.  Last year it was T-39th with a 3.99 average on it’s par 4s so look for players that play well on par 4s.  Last year Chris Kirk was 6 under on the Par 4s, in 2013 Henrik Stenson was the best playing them in 14 under par
• Interesting to note that Vijay Singh, Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy won the Deutsche Bank the month after taking the PGA Championship.  It’s also interesting to note that Deutsche Bank winners Woods, Singh and Adam Scott have also been runner-up here.  As for this year’s PGA Champion Jason Day, you have to think he is chomping at the bit for Friday’s opening round.
• Scrambling is a very important stat and won to look at.  Here is the rank of Deutsche Bank Championship winners between 2007-2014.
•  Year Winner               Scrambling (rank)
•  2014 Chris Kirk              80.77% (4)
•  2013 Henrik Stenson      81.82% (T-6)
•  2012 Rory McIlroy      70.83% (10)
•  2011 Webb Simpson          76.00% (5)
•  2010 Charley Hoffman       82.35% (2)
•  2009 Steve Stricker       73.91% (10)
•  2008 Vijay Singh               76.92% (4)
•  2007 Phil Mickelson       86.36% (1)

Every winner in the playoff era finished in the top 10 in scrambling at TPC Boston. The difference between Kirk and everyone else is that none of those winners shot a score as high as 73, or hit as few as seven greens in one round.

In fact, Stricker in 2009 was the only winner in that span with a round higher than 70. Every winner from 2007-2013 hit at least 10 greens in every round.

What would the expected score be for a player who only hits seven greens on a par-71 course? There’s no easy way to determine this, of course, but let’s try.  Let’s assume a player reaches the putting surface on the shot after he missed the green in regulation. That means Kirk, who entered the week with a one-putt percentage of about 41 percent, should have been expected to make a one-putt par on 41 percent of those 11 holes. He should have made 4.5 pars. Instead he made eight pars when he missed the green, improving his expectations by 3.5 strokes. He would go on to win by two.

Kirk scored better than expected on Friday, and he played out of his mind over the last 54 holes, shooting 17-under (66-64-66) to hold off Russell Henley, Geoff Ogilvy and Billy Horschel by two strokes. That 196 total is the third-best final-54 hole total in Deutsche Bank Championship history.

In conclusion, look for those that have been playing well the last couple of weeks to do well this week.  Of course, we know the track record of Jason Day and Jordan Spieth. Usually the defending champion doesn’t play good, so don’t expect a good week out of Chris Kirk, who because of a broken hand has not played much.

Lastly, the outlook for the tournament couldn’t be any better, as the long range forecast calls for great weather the whole week of the event.