Welcome to GOLFstats.com! You are currently viewing one of our Preview and Picks post that we publish each week. We also publish special Performance Charts for the tournaments, analyzing results over the past 8 years, a special DraftKings Picks Post, analyzing what picks are the best this week for the DraftKings games, and we do a weekly Key Fantasy Stats Post detailing what stats are most important for this weeks tournament and course, and which players excel in those stats. Very useful!
Our data is updated daily. To access all this info, and so much more, just CLICK HERE to SIGN UP for GOLFstats!

BlogDeutsche Bank Preview and Picks

Deutsche Bank Championship

September 4th – 7th, 2015

TPC of Boston

Norton, Mass.

Par: 71 / Yardage: 7,214

Purse: $8.25 million

with $1,485,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Chris Kirk

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This week’s field includes:

Of the 99 players in the field, 62 of the players are in the top-100 of the World Ranking list. The field includes 37 of the top 50 in the latest Official World Rankings, with eight top-ten players in the field (No #10 Sergio Garcia): Those in the field include #1 Rory Mcilroy, #2 Jordan Spieth, #3 Jason Day, #4 Bubba Watson, #5 Justin Rose, #6 Jim Furyk, #7 Dustin Johnson,  #8 Henrik Stenson and #9 Rickie Fowler. From 11 to 25 there are 11 of the 15 with #11 Zach Johnson, #12 Louis Oosthuizen, #14 Jimmy Walker, #15 Matt Kuchar, #16 Brooks Koepka, #17 Hideki Matsuyama, #18 Patrick Reed, #19 J.B. Holmes, #23 Phil Mickelson, #24 Billy Horschel and #25 Chris Kirk.  Between 26 and 50 there are 17 of the 25, they are #27 Paul Casey, #28 Bill Haas, #29 Brandt Snedeker, #31  Ryan Palmer, #32 Marc Leishman, #33 Kevin Na, #34 Robert Streb, #35 Kevin Kisner, #38 Gary Woodland,  #40 David Lingmerth, #43 Ryan Moore, #44 Webb Simpson, #46 Russell Henley, #47 Charley Hoffman, #49 Keegan Bradley and #50 Brendon Todd.

Last year there was 32 players from the top-50 so five more this year.

The field includes 99 of the top-100 from the FedEx Cup rankings (Sergio Garcia not in the field).

The field includes all 25 players in the top 25 on this year’s PGA Tour money list. 

The field includes 6 of the 11 different past champions: Chris Kirk (2014), Henrik Stenson (2013), Rory McIlroy (2012), Webb Simpson (2011), Charley Hoffman (2010), Phil Mickelson (2007).

A perfect way for fantasy golfers to check on the past performance of all the players in the Deutsche Bank field is our performance chart listed by average finish.  Another way to check who is the best is through a special formula worked out in Golfstats that gives us the best average performances at the Deutsche Bank  field in the last five years or check out our sortable 8-year glance at the Deutsche Bank  field.

A good cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmakers in England.

Another cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmaker in Las Vegas.

**NOTE**

One thing to look for is our new GOLFstats IQ.  For those that play in fantasy golf it’s a perfect way to help you pick those players in Draft Kings and Victiv games.  You can customize the list of those in the tournaments, to look back a couple or many years of tournament stats and you can go back a couple or ten weeks prior to the tournament.  On top of that, all the stats are fully sortable to help you pick your six players, we even give you their value for the week to help you chose.

That’s GOLFstats IQ, give it a try and tell us what you think of it

24/7 GOLF

How would you like to have Total Golf Knowledge At Your Fingertips??

We have the perfect solution for you.  If you own a Iphone or a Ipad we have developed a perfect app called 24/7 GOLF.

It gives you everything that you need to know about golf, you have all the players results and every tournament result, again at your fingertips.  It’s very easy to use and you can take a good amout of GOLFstats with you everyplace.  No need to get home and check things out on your computer at home, you can answer any question with your Ipad.

So check it out, just hit this link to get 24/7 GOLF:

Screen Shot 2015-04-23 at 12.01.34 AM

Time to look at our who’s hot and who isn’t:

Who’s Hot in the field for the Deutsche Bank Championship

Player Barclays Wyndham PGA Championship WGC-Bridgestone Barracuda Quicken Loans Paul Lawrie Matchplay Canadian Open European Masters British Open Barbasol John Deere Scottish Open
Jason Day
(641.33 pts)
Win
(198)
DNP Win
(264)
12
(38)
DNP DNP DNP Win
(88)
DNP T4
(53.33)
DNP DNP DNP
Justin Rose
(394.33 pts)
T16
(51)
DNP 4
(160)
3
(90)
DNP T4
(53.33)
DNP DNP DNP T6
(40)
DNP DNP 74
(0)
Bubba Watson
(353 pts)
3
(135)
DNP 21
(58)
2
(100)
DNP DNP DNP 2
(66.67)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP
Jordan Spieth
(322.33 pts)
CUT
(-15)
DNP 2
(200)
10
(40)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T4
(53.33)
DNP Win
(44)
DNP
Brooks Koepka
(302.33 pts)
CUT
(-15)
T6
(60)
5
(140)
6
(60)
DNP DNP DNP T18
(21.33)
DNP T10
(26.67)
DNP DNP T22
(9.33)
Henrik Stenson
(266.67 pts)
2
(150)
DNP 25
(50)
6
(60)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T40
(6.67)
DNP DNP DNP
Jim Furyk
(255.17 pts)
T11
(58.5)
DNP 30
(40)
3
(90)
DNP DNP DNP 4
(53.33)
DNP T30
(13.33)
DNP DNP DNP
Zach Johnson
(235 pts)
T4
(120)
DNP CUT
(-20)
33
(17)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP Win
(88)
DNP T3
(30)
DNP
Matt Kuchar
(221.5 pts)
T39
(16.5)
DNP 7
(110)
25
(25)
DNP DNP DNP T7
(36.67)
DNP T58
(0)
DNP DNP T2
(33.33)
Robert Streb
(199.83 pts)
T39
(16.5)
DNP 10
(80)
5
(70)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T18
(21.33)
DNP T14
(12)
DNP
Justin Thomas
(191.67 pts)
T16
(51)
T56
(0)
18
(64)
DNP DNP T4
(53.33)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T5
(23.33)
DNP
Rickie Fowler
(189 pts)
CUT
(-15)
DNP 30
(40)
10
(40)
DNP 2
(66.67)
DNP DNP DNP T30
(13.33)
DNP DNP Win
(44)
David Lingmerth
(181 pts)
CUT
(-15)
DNP 12
(76)
6
(60)
DNP 3
(60)
DNP DNP DNP T74
(0)
DNP DNP DNP
Danny Lee
(180.67 pts)
T30
(30)
DNP 43
(14)
6
(60)
DNP T4
(53.33)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T3
(30)
DNP
Paul Casey
(179.5 pts)
T39
(16.5)
T3
(90)
30
(40)
17
(33)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T74
(0)
DNP DNP DNP
Dustin Johnson
(178.17 pts)
T9
(67.5)
DNP 7
(110)
53
(0)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T49
(0.67)
DNP DNP DNP
Jason Bohn
(159.5 pts)
T9
(67.5)
DNP 37
(26)
DNP DNP T4
(53.33)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T12
(12.67)
DNP
Tony Finau
(153.67 pts)
T16
(51)
DNP 10
(80)
DNP DNP T39
(7.33)
DNP T22
(18.67)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Jason Gore
(148 pts)
T30
(30)
2
(100)
DNP DNP T15
(23.33)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP T16
(11.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Daniel Summerhays
(133 pts)
T6
(90)
T43
(7)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T11
(26)
DNP DNP DNP T8
(16.67)
DNP
Bill Haas
(131.67 pts)
T53
(0)
T6
(60)
65
(0)
25
(25)
DNP T4
(53.33)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP
Russell Henley
(129 pts)
72
(0)
DNP 12
(76)
17
(33)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T20
(20)
DNP DNP DNP
Webb Simpson
(121.67 pts)
T30
(30)
T6
(60)
54
(0)
25
(25)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T40
(6.67)
DNP DNP DNP
Luke Donald
(120.67 pts)
T24
(39)
T26
(24)
43
(14)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T74
(0)
DNP T12
(25.33)
DNP DNP T7
(18.33)
Patrick Reed
(117.67 pts)
T62
(0)
DNP 30
(40)
15
(35)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T16
(22.67)
T20
(20)
DNP DNP DNP

How Player Rankings are Computed

Who’s Not Hot in the field for the Deutsche Bank Championship

Player Barclays Wyndham PGA Championship WGC-Bridgestone Barracuda Quicken Loans Paul Lawrie Matchplay Canadian Open European Masters British Open Barbasol John Deere Scottish Open
Daniel Berger
(-55.33 pts)
CUT
(-15)
CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-20)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP T41
(3)
Matt Every
(-53.33 pts)
CUT
(-15)
WD
(-5)
CUT
(-20)
74
(0)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP
Martin Laird
(-51.67 pts)
CUT
(-15)
T59
(0)
CUT
(-20)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Fabian Gomez
(-36.67 pts)
71
(0)
DNP CUT
(-20)
67
(0)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Brendon De Jonge
(-28.33 pts)
CUT
(-15)
CUT
(-10)
65
(0)
DNP DNP T59
(0)
DNP T76
(0)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Alex Cejka
(-26.67 pts)
CUT
(-15)
CUT
(-10)
WD
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP T41
(6)
DNP DNP T23
(9)
T55
(0)
DNP
Chesson Hadley
(-24.67 pts)
CUT
(-15)
CUT
(-10)
61
(0)
DNP DNP 70
(0)
DNP T72
(0)
DNP DNP T39
(3.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Gary Woodland
(-21.67 pts)
CUT
(-15)
DNP DNP 57
(0)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP T58
(0)
DNP DNP DNP
Chris Kirk
(-15 pts)
CUT
(-15)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Ian Poulter
(-12 pts)
CUT
(-15)
DNP CUT
(-20)
17
(33)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)

How Player Rankings are Computed

The Buzz:

So it’s the second leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs, and only one exempt players are not participating, Sergio Garcia.  A couple of things about the playoffs that are a bit of a turnoff, last week Jason Day won at the Barclays.  With the win it guarantees Jason Day a top-five points ranking heading into the Tour Championship, meaning that he controls his own destiny and will win the FedEx Cup with a victory at East Lake.  So if Day had chosen not to play this week and at the BMW, he would of still been able to win the FedEx Cup at the Tour Championship.  These playoffs are getting more to do with the Tour Championship than anything else, to win the playoffs you just about have to win at East Lake which I don’t understand.

What is Jordan Spieth thinking of?

Anybody else shocked that last week Jordan Spieth decided to change irons before the Barclays?  Last week Spieth teed off with a new set of Titleist irons, a yet-to-be-released set.  So what happens, he missed the cut?  It was his first new set of irons since the 2013 Quicken Loans and just had me thinking, he had the four playoff events and the Presidents Cup and then a month or two off, why not wait until after the Barclays?  Guess we will never know the process that Spieth went in changing clubs but if he misses the cut this week some will wonder if he made a bad choice.

One last item:

On Monday the teams will be chosen based on their point totals. Tuesday captains Jay Haas and Nick Price will make their two captains picks, so let’s just say that there will be no movement in the top-ten and guess who the two captain picks will be.  As for Haas the big question will be if he wants experience in Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson, because it’s hard to judge who is hot.  I would say that both Woods and Mickelson will be sitting home, for Mickelson he has been in every Ryder Cup/Presidents Cup since his first appearance in the Presidents Cup in it’s first year in 1994.  He has played in all ten Presidents Cup and ten Ryder Cups, his 20 times on these teams is the most of any one player.  So despite the happiness of not having to spend a week in Korea, Mickelson will probably be sadden on not making the team.  As for Woods, his game is just not ready for something like this so I can’t see Captain Haas taking him.  If it was me picking, I would probably go with Brooks Keopka and Robert Streb, both have had a great summer and of those not on the team are playing the best and most consistent.

As for the International team captain Price will be watching to see if Danny Lee or Steven Bowditch get the tenth spot.  The good news is that either way, they both should be on the team so it’s down to the final pick.  I would give the nod to George Coetzee who has been playing the most consistent and probably give the team it’s best hope.

Tournament information:

This is the 13th annual Deutsche Bank Championship. Initially created with the help of IMG, the Tiger Woods Foundation, and the PGA Tour, the Deutsche Bank Championship’s main goal was to raise money for the Tiger Woods Foundation.

As the tournament is held over Labor Day weekend, it has the distinction along with the Hyundai Tournament of Champions to be the only events on the PGA Tour to conclude on a Monday.

Though the event lacks history, its short stint on the PGA Tour has produced some monumental happenings. Most notably: the rivalry between Vijay Singh and Tiger Woods. In 2004, Tiger and Vijay battled down to the final hole. Ultimately, Singh’s 69 was enough to give him the tournament title and the World’s Number One ranking, dethroning Woods after five years of dominance.

In 2006, the rivalry was renewed, and this time, Woods was not to be denied. Singh shot a course record 61 in the third round going into the final round with a three-shot lead over Woods.  Despite shooting a 68, he was still a loser as Woods shot 63 to overcome a three-shot deficit and win the title.

The 2007 event is also memorable with Phil Mickelson holding off the challenge of Tiger Woods, Arron Oberholser and Brett Wetterich.

In 2008 Vijay Singh shot a final round 63 and cruised to a five-shot victory which paved the way for him to win the FedEx Cup.

Since the start of the FedEx Cup, it’s been the second playoff event.  Of the four, this and the Tour Championship are the only events played each year on the same course.  Over the years, it’s grown a nice following as players love the course, the location and the week.

Course information:

The TPC of Boston was opened in June of 2002, it was formerly used for charcoal production for the jewelry, brick and iron industries as well as lumber for ship construction.  Arnold Palmer designed the course, it is your typical TPC layout, very long and pretty generous off the tee.  There are several doglegs that can be carried by long hitters so again advantage to those that hit it long.  The greens are large, and several have multiple tiers making putting more challenging.  But over the years the course has changed dramatically.

As players matriculate back to Boston each year for the Deutsche Bank Championship, they were met with changes made by Gil Hanse and Brad Faxon.  In 2009 changes to the green area and mounding around the 2nd hole.  In 2008 players saw changes to the 4th, 7th and 16th holes.  The changes weren’t as big, mostly cosmetic like mounds being added to the right side of nine.  Also, changes were made to the chipping areas around No. 1 and No. 10 greens. Bunkers also were altered in shape at the fourth and 11th holes. At the latter, a 230-yard par-3, and island of turf was installed in the middle of the large front-right bunker.

The changes made for the 2007 event was well received by the players, most of them liked making the 4th hole a possible drivable par 4. It’s a step in the right direction because in previous years they have been very luke warm on the Arnold Palmer design course.

There are no real major changes to the course for this year.  The course has pretty much been the same for a couple of years now.

Still the course is for the taking, last year the course played to a 70.473 average and was the 34th toughest of the 48 courses used.  So you can see, you have to go low to survive this week.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Deutsche Bank Championship:

Key stats for the winner:

  • Now in past years it was obvious that this course was a long hitters haven.  Last year we had Chris Kirk and Henrik Stenson win, both who are in the middle of all driving distance stats but in 2012, we had Rory McIlroy, in 2010 we had Charley Hoffman.  In 2008, it was Vijay Singh while in 2007, it was Phil Mickelson and Tiger Woods in 2006, all very long hitters  Still don’t rule out the short hitters, just look at 2009 winner Steve Stricker, the same with Webb Simpson in 2011.  But he isn’t the only one, the 2005 champion Olin Browne is one of the shorter hitters on tour and 2003 runner-up Rocco Mediate is also short.  In the same breath, it’s safe to say that accuracy doesn’t pay on this course.  In it’s 12 years of being played, of the 153 players that have finished in the top-ten in driving accuracy, only 34 have been in the top-ten.  One more key driving accuracy stat, of the 48 courses used on the PGA Tour it ranked 36th in driving accuracy that means that you can be wild on this course.
  • Looking at the stats from its 12-year history, look for those with sharp iron games to produce the best score.  Look for a smart player that doesn’t attack the holes but plays placement golf to win.  Of the 12 winners, three led the greens hit category (winner Henrik Stenson led in 2013) while the first eight of nine winners were in the top-ten.
  • Since the event doesn’t start until Friday, players will have an extra day to get use to the course.  Look for those that are starting to practice on Tuesday to rule the roost.
  • The greens are 6,000 square feet, which is about average on the PGA Tour. They have a lot of undulation in them, and that could be one of the reasons why winners haven’t dominated the putting stats.
  • Looking for that one stat that jumps up and grabs you?  Par 4 average is the key here, TPC Boston is one of the easiest in par 4s.  Last year it was T-39th with a 3.99 average on it’s par 4s so look for players that play well on par 4s.  Last year Chris Kirk was 6 under on the Par 4s, in 2013 Henrik Stenson was the best playing them in 14 under par
  • Interesting to note that Vijay Singh, Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy won the Deutsche Bank the month after taking the PGA Championship.  It’s also interesting to note that Deutsche Bank winners Woods, Singh and Adam Scott have also been runner-up here.  As for this year’s PGA Champion Jason Day, you have to think he is chomping at the bit for Friday’s opening round.
  • Scrambling is a very important stat and won to look at.  Here is the rank of Deutsche Bank Championship winners between 2007-2014.
  •  Year Winner               Scrambling (rank)
  •  2014 Chris Kirk              80.77% (4)
  •  2013 Henrik Stenson      81.82% (T-6)
  •  2012 Rory McIlroy      70.83% (10)
  •  2011 Webb Simpson          76.00% (5)
  •  2010 Charley Hoffman       82.35% (2)
  •  2009 Steve Stricker       73.91% (10)
  •  2008 Vijay Singh               76.92% (4)
  •  2007 Phil Mickelson       86.36% (1)

Every winner in the playoff era finished in the top 10 in scrambling at TPC Boston. The difference between Kirk and everyone else is that none of those winners shot a score as high as 73, or hit as few as seven greens in one round.

In fact, Stricker in 2009 was the only winner in that span with a round higher than 70. Every winner from 2007-2013 hit at least 10 greens in every round.

What would the expected score be for a player who only hits seven greens on a par-71 course? There’s no easy way to determine this, of course, but let’s try.  Let’s assume a player reaches the putting surface on the shot after he missed the green in regulation. That means Kirk, who entered the week with a one-putt percentage of about 41 percent, should have been expected to make a one-putt par on 41 percent of those 11 holes. He should have made 4.5 pars. Instead he made eight pars when he missed the green, improving his expectations by 3.5 strokes. He would go on to win by two.

Kirk scored better than expected on Friday, and he played out of his mind over the last 54 holes, shooting 17-under (66-64-66) to hold off Russell Henley, Geoff Ogilvy and Billy Horschel by two strokes. That 196 total is the third-best final-54 hole total in Deutsche Bank Championship history.

In conclusion, look for those that have been playing well the last couple of weeks to do well this week.  Of course, we know the track record of Jason Day and Jordan Spieth. Usually the defending champion doesn’t play good, so don’t expect a good week out of Chris Kirk, who because of a broken hand has not played much.

Lastly, the outlook for the tournament couldn’t be any better, as the long range forecast calls for great weather the whole week of the event.

 

 

 

Who to watch for at the Deutsche Bank Championship

Best Bets:

Jason Day

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
T7 T13 T51 T3 T2 T19 T50

I think he will win not only this week but at the Tour Championship. Guy is awesome right now, the only question will be if he has enough fuel in the tank to go over the next four weeks. Stat-wise he is 3rd in driving distance, T-9th in greens in regulation, 4th in scrambling and 2nd in par-4 average—a potentially lethal combination on a track that features some of the easier par-4s on Tour.

Dustin Johnson

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
T27 T4 T42 T57 T4

Talk about guys that can overpower courses, Johnson could be the best. He ranks 1st in driving distance, and even though he is week in greens in regulation ranking 121st, he is 12th in strokes gained Tee-to-Green. Also like that he is T-20th in Part 4 scoring average, he will be tough to beat. One last thing, he is 20 under par in his last eight rounds so his game is getting better.

Henrik Stenson

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
T26 Win T55

Won here just two years ago, he played great at Barclays from tee to green and if he putts half decently he will win this week

Best of the rest:

Jordan Spieth

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
T29 T4

Have to question his wisdom on changing irons at this point of time, sorry he could of waited a week to do it. Says that the Plainfield, site of last week’s event didn’t fit his eye so have to think that he will bounce back from the missed cut. Spieth doesn’t have the distance to overpower the course like Johnson, Watson or Day, he is 3rd in strokes gained tee-to-green, 5th in scrambling and 1st in par-4 scoring average. He knows that he is under pressure from Day who is taking some of his summer-time thunder and needs to produce this week.

Louis Oosthuizen

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
2

We can’t forget about him, he is 35th in driving distance, 44th in greens in regulation, 45th in scrambling andT-20th in par 4 scoring average, all the stats needed to play well this week. On top of that, in his only start in 2012 he was runner-up.

Rory McIlroy

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
T5 T47 Win T37

Talk about another guy that has had all of his thunder taken away, Rory should be a big favorite this week. The knee should be find with more rest and he comes to a course he can overpower. Ranks 11th in driving distance, 7th in greens in regulation and 3rd in par 4 scoring average so he has the numbers to do well. He is also a past champion at TPC Boston along with finishing T-5th last year.

Robert Streb

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
T9

Played well last year finishing T-9th in his rookie start, has the stats to play well with a 38th in driving distance, 16th in greens in regulation and T-8 in par-4 scoring average, so if your looking for a long shot, Streb could be a perfect longshot choice.

Solid contenders

Justin Rose

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
T16 CUT T68 CUT T54 CUT T4 T27 T29 3

This is a guy that should do well this week. Rose is 14th in driving distance and 8th in greens in regulation, but struggles in scrambling (100th) and par-4 scoring (T-49). But the sad fact is he hasn’t played well at the Deutsche Bank in years, did finish 3rd in 2003 and T-4 in 2006. So it’s a toss-up on if this will be a good week for him.

Brooks Koepka

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
First time playing in this event

Has to forget about missing the cut last week at the Barclays. He will make his first start at the Deutsche Bank and he has the numbers to do well, ranking 7th in driving distance, 11th in greens in regulation and 11th strokes gained putting. The big challenge will be contending in his first start, but just two years ago, first-timer Henrik Stenson took the title, so it can be done.

Jim Furyk

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
T23 T27 T13 6 T37 T8 T7 T55 T35 T13

Great player but just doesn’t have the distance to play this course. Still has three top-tens in ten starts including a 6th in 2011 so he could make a run, but don’t think he will win.

Bill Haas

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
T9 CUT T35 T61 T22 T15 T69 T15 T9

Has Presidents Cup to think about as he tries to make his father’s team. Could do well, was T-9th last year and could improve on that.

Webb Simpson

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
T9 T53 T18 Win CUT CUT

Another course that he does well on, won in 2011 and was T-9th last year.

Long shots that could come through:

John Senden

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
T5 12 T21 8 T11 T33 T23 T61 T74 T48 T13

He doesn’t hit it far ranking 98th and doesn’t hit many greens ranking 70th this year. Matter of fact all the stats point to him not playing well but here is a guy that has finished in the top-12 four times in his last five starts. May not win it but he will probably notch up another top-ten.

Justin Thomas

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
First time playing in this event

Never played her before, could be a good course for him. Is 15th in driving distance so will overpower the course and 31st in greens in regulation. 35th in scrambling along with being T-49th in par 4 scoring average so don’t be surprise to see him have a good week.

Tony Finau

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
First time playing in this event

Another rookie at this event, he hits it long and could surprise all this week.

Worst Bets:

Bubba Watson

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
T29 T67 CUT T16 T37 T32 T44 CUT T12

Yes he should excel at TPC Boston, a course he can easily overpower off the tee (2nd driving distance) and on approach (23rd in greens in regulation.) But he has struggled on this course, with his best finish coming in his first start in 2006 with a T-12th. In his last three starts, he missed the cut in 2012, was T-67th in 2013 and T-29th last year, further proof that Watson is the type of player who struggles on certain courses and thrives on others, TPC Boston is not a course he does well on.

Comments

  1. what about ricky? Top 10 pretty much every tournament after being cut.

  2. The decision not to pick Fowler is easy. His missed cut at Barclays was the first red flag but look at his record at Deutsche Bank, in five starts his T-23rd last year is his best finish. In a way he is like Bubba Watson, maybe this course just doesn’t fit his game and eye. So that is why I didn’t mention him, just think it’s a lost cause for him.

  3. Sal- How do think Kirk will play defending? He shot 68 Sat last week and seems to obv like the course. His price in DFS is higher than say Pat Perez and Jim Herman who I expect to own high percentages of…your thoughts?

  4. That is a very tough choice because Kirk shot 68 but the round before shot 76. He has to be raw from not playing since breaking his hand after the U.S. Open. He is a good talent but your asking a lot of him, he probably needs a couple more events under his belt. The reason he is priced higher in Draft Kings is because Pat Perez and Jim Herman would be my last choices this week. Both are more interested in just making a check and going on to the next event. Perez has been playing for years now and may have 46 top-tens in 365 starts but only has been in contention a dozen times winning just once. Another knock on Perez, he does well in west coast events and that’s about it. Herman is even worst, he has only made the cut in 55% of his starts so I would very rarely trust him.
    So to answer your question that is the reason Kirk is more than the other two. If in Draft Kings you are looking for that sixth and final pick, I realize that at 7,100 points he is steap. If you are looking for a cheap sixth pick you’d be better off with Troy Merritt at 6,300 or a Boo Weekley at 6,300 or even Davis Love III at 6,100.

  5. Great stuff as always Sal….when will the24/7 app be ready for Android?

  6. still getting it ready for that platform, it’s hard and expensive to get done.

Speak Your Mind

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.