BlogBMW Championship Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

So it’s the third leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs, this is probably the one with the biggest cut off.  Up until now you can see that a lot of players that won in 2015, guys like Fabian Gomez, James Hahn, Chris Kirk and Ryan Moore are still in the FedEx Cup playoffs but will get cut on Sunday, unless they have a good week.  This is the overall problem I have with the way the FedEx Cup is done.  It gives way too much credence for that one win and for those that do well in the Barclays and Deutsche Bank.  So for a lot of the winners in 2015, they are just hanging on because of those wins and will be gone by next week.  Another person that probably will get cut this week is last year’s FedEx Cup winner Billy Horschel.  The only way he gets to defend his Tour Championship title is if he either wins or comes in second this week.

Talking about Horschel, last year he entered the playoffs 69th and even after missing the cut at the Barclays and falling down to 82nd in the cup standings, he was able to win it with a runner-up at the Deutsche Bank, then wins at the BMW Championship and Tour Championship.  Don’t have to worry about that this year, unless something unusual happens we will probably see the winner coming from the top of the standings.  The only player that has made a big advance is Henrik Stenson who started the playoffs 41st and with his pair of runner-up finishes has climbed to 4th.

Last but not least we have the story of Hunter Mahan.  He is the only player to participate in all the Tour Championships in the FedEx Cup era.  But that may end as Mahan is 52nd in the standings and unless he wins or finishes second or third at the BMW won’t be a part of next week’s Tour Championship.

Is the summer getting too long with too many marquee events?

The answer is yes, yes and yes again.  Since the middle of June, we have seen three majors and a WGC event played.  Put that together with the FedEx Cup playoffs and then jetting straight off to Korea for the Presidents Cup that’s a lot of golf for all the marquee players.  The schedule is a bit better this year giving players a week off inbetween the Deutsche Bank and BMW Championship but if you ask most of the top players they would like to see one important event a month instead of having 8 of them in a span of three months.  Guess we shouldn’t complain, with the addition of the Olympics next year the schedule will be really overcrowded.

Talking about the Presidents Cup

So Captain Haas picked his son Bill and Phil Mickelson for his wild card picks.  Both could be controversial picks, but if you look at what happened leading to the picks, they made sense.  Brooks Keopka was the odds on choice but missing the cut at both the Barclays and Deutsche Bank didn’t help his chances.  As for anyone else, they just didn’t prove themselves.  Billy Horschel missed the cut at the Wyndham and Barclays and barley made it at the Deutsche Bank before finishing with rounds of 77-72.  Now son Bill wasn’t that great finishing T-53rd at the Barclays and T-60th at Deutsche Bank but he isn’t a bad choice.  As for Phil Mickelson, who has been very inconsistent since winning the British Open in 2013, you have to like having him on the team.  This will be Mickelson’s 21st consecutive Ryder/Presidents Cup played, his influence in the team room will bring lot’s of experience and a good player for younger ones to look up to.  Many will point to the rift brought on last year at the Ryder Cup when Mickelson said some negative things about Captain Tom Watson not using the Paul Azinger “pod system” but honestly the whole thing was blown up, Phil never said anything bad about Watson, he just said that he felt a different system from 2008 was better.  The point is that Phil will be good to have on the team and in the team room because this could be a very tough week for the United States team.

For those looking for Presidents Cup history and results, try our our Presidents Cup database here:

Tournament information:

The Western Open was originally founded and run by the Western Golf Association. First played in 1899, the event is the third oldest professional golf tournament (U.S. Open and British Open are older). Like the other golf tournaments of the time, the Western Open was dominated by visiting professionals from England and Scotland. In its early decades, it was widely regarded as a major championship

From 1899 until 1961, the Western Open was played at a variety of locations including Phoenix, Salt Lake City, and San Francisco to name a few. Beginning in 1962, however, the Western Open settled into the Chicago area. It was hosted at different local courses in and around the city.

In 1974, the Butler National Golf Club in Oak Brook, became the annual venue for the Western Open. The Butler National Golf Club remained the host site until shortly after the 1990 tournament, when the PGA Tour adopted a policy of holding events only at clubs that allowed minorities to be members.

This resulted in Butler National being replaced by the Cog Hill Golf & Country Club in Lemont, Illinois. The Dubsdread Course at Cog Hill played host to the Western Open from 1991 to 2007. With the advent of the new FedEx Cup Series, the PGA Tour decided a change of name was in order. The event name change to the BMW Championship.  Along with the change it was decided to move the tournament around. In 2008 for the first time since 1962 the event was not played in the Chicago area as it moved to St. Louis for the year. In 2012 it went to Indianapolis, Indiana, in 2013 it went for the first time to Conway Farms, site of this year’s BMW Championship.  Last year it was played at Cherry Hills in Denver.  In the future it’s going to be played at Crooked Stick next year and at Aronimink outside of Philadelphia in 2018.  No venue for 2017 but the quiet rumors say that Harding Park in San Francisco could one day host this event.

Back to Conway Farms

The par 71, 7,149 yard course was designed around the traditions of Scottish links style.  It’s on a lot of acreage, 210 acres with memorable holes that will challenge players.  There are three par 5s, with the last being a 570 yard par 5 with a creek running down the left side and in front of the green.  If tour officials move the tees up it could create a great finish.  That along with the 7th and 15th holes, very short drivable par 4s will bring the gambler out of players.

Not only does the course appeal to ball strikers and those that hit lots of greens, scrambling will be an important element in the way the greens slop off giving players a tough time getting it up and down.  Will the players eat this place up like they did the Deutsche Bank last week, probably not.  But at the same time there are a lot of birdie holes out there for players.

Course information:

Conway Farms was designed by Tom Fazio and opened in 1991.  Along with the BMW Championship played in 2013, it has held elite college events including the NCAA Division I Championship and the Big Ten Championship.  It was the site of the 2009 Western Amateur, the 2012 USGA Mid-Amateur and the 1998 U.S. Junior amateur along with U.S. Open sectional qualifying.  Conway Farms membership includes Luke Donald, who played a key role in bringing the club and the PGA Tour together.  The only change to the course between now and when the BMW Championship was played in 2013 is all of the greens were regrassed and the driving range was remodeled.

Water comes in play on six holes, but drastically on only four holes.  The hardest holes (tied) from 2013 was the par 4, 5th.  It played to a 4.243 average while the par 4, 13th also played to a 4.243 average.  The par 5 finishing hole was tough as a par 5, playing to a 4.914 average.  On the PGA Tour in 2013, Conway Farms was 27th of all the courses with a 70.811 average.  The course has 86 bunkers and for the members plays to a 75.8 average with a 149 slope.

Key stat for the winner:

• Just like in majors, the player that comes in and can adapt his game to the course will have the advantage.  Now this doesn’t mean that a Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth or a Jason Day has the edge, we could see someone we least expect winning.  The same with Luke Donald, he has a big edge as he is a member of the club and plays there, but you have to also be playing well and Donald hasn’t shown much of a game in years now.
• There was a week off before hand, everyone will be fresh.  But for those that didn’t practice and play much last week, they could be a bit rusty early.
• With 24 rounds of 66 and under including a 59 by Jim Furyk in 2013, players can go very low at Conway Farms. Not only does the course appeal to ball strikers and those that hit lots of greens, scrambling will be an important element in the way the greens slop off giving players a tough time getting it up and down.  Will the players eat this place up like they did the Deutsche Bank last week, probably not.  But at the same time there are a lot of birdie holes out there.
• On the same note, two par 4s could be reachable.  But the par 5s could play tough and unless the Tour moves the tees up all three of them could be three-shot holes.
• Even if Jason Day, Jordan Spieth or Rickie Fowler wins it doesn’t mean they will be the FedEx Cup champions, but they will have a big advantage and they will control their destiny next week at the Tour Championship.  As for Player of the year, have to think it’s going to be Jordan Spieth, unless Jason Day wins this week and next, that would make for a really hard choice.
• Lastly, the weather in the Chicago area this week will have a touch of fall as tempertures will drop close to ten degrees over the week.  On Monday it will be 81 but by Sunday drop down to 71.  Each day will be good, Thursday will be very windy and Friday will bring rain which could wash out the day.  The weekend looks great.