Welcome to GOLFstats.com! You are currently viewing one of our Preview and Picks post that we publish each week. We also publish special Performance Charts for the tournaments, analyzing results over the past 8 years, a special DraftKings Picks Post, analyzing what picks are the best this week for the DraftKings games, and we do a weekly Key Fantasy Stats Post detailing what stats are most important for this weeks tournament and course, and which players excel in those stats. Very useful!
Our data is updated daily. To access all this info, and so much more, just CLICK HERE to SIGN UP for GOLFstats!

BlogFrys.com Open Preview and Picks

Frys.com Open

October 15th – 18th, 2015

Silverado C.C. (North Course)

Napa, Ca.

Par: 71 / Yardage: 7,203

Purse: $6 million

with $1,080,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Sangmoon Bae (not defending)

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This week’s field includes:

The field includes 12 of the top 50 in the latest Official World Rankings, with two top-ten player #3 Rory McIlroy & #7 Justin Rose.   The other top 50 players are #12 Brooks Koepka, #15 Hideki Matsuyama, #28 Chris Kirk, #30 Brandt Snedeker, #31 Robert Streb, #33 Kevin Na, #38 Ryan Palmer, #44 Daniel Berger, #47 Hunter Mahan #48 Charl Schwartzel.

Last year there were only 6 top-50 players in the field, so double the amount from last year.

The field includes 9 of the Top 25 on last year’s final FedEx point standings for 2015.  Those players include #8 Justin Rose, #15 Rory McIlroy, #16 Hideki Matsuyama, #18 Robert Streb, #20 Steven Bowditch, #23 Brandt Snedeker, #24 Brooks Koepka and #25 Kevin Na.

The field includes 8 players in the top 25 on last year’s PGA Tour money list, Those players include #6 Justin Rose, #7 Rory McIlroy, #14 Robert Streb, #15 Hideki Matsuyama, #17 Brandt Snedeker, #19 Brooks Koepka, #23 Steven Bowditch,and #25 Daniel Berger.

The field includes all 2 past champions: Jonas Blixt (2012) and Bryce Molder (2011).

A perfect way for fantasy golfers to check on the past performance of all the players in the Frys.com Open field is our performance chart listed by average finish. One last way to check who is the best is through a special formula worked out in Golfstats that gives us the best average performances at Frys.com Open in the last five years or check out our sortable 8-year glance at the Frys.com Open.

A good cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmakers in England.

Another cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmaker in Las Vegas.

**NOTE**

One thing to look for is our new GOLFstats IQ.  For those that play in fantasy golf it’s a perfect way to help you pick those players in Draft Kings and Victiv games.  You can customize the list of those in the tournaments, to look back a couple or many years of tournament stats and you can go back a couple or ten weeks prior to the tournament.  On top of that, all the stats are fully sortable to help you pick your six players, we even give you their value for the week to help you chose.

That’s GOLFstats IQ, give it a try and tell us what you think of it

24/7 GOLF

How would you like to have Total Golf Knowledge At Your Fingertips??

We have the perfect solution for you.  If you own a Iphone or a Ipad we have developed a perfect app called 24/7 GOLF.

It gives you everything that you need to know about golf, you have all the players results and every tournament result, again at your fingertips.  It’s very easy to use and you can take a good amout of GOLFstats with you everyplace.  No need to get home and check things out on your computer at home, you can answer any question with your Ipad.

So check it out, just hit this link to get 24/7 GOLF:

Screen Shot 2015-04-23 at 12.01.34 AM

 

Time to look at our who’s hot and who isn’t:

Who’s Hot in the field for the Frys.com Open

Player British Masters Dunhill Links Tour Championship European Open BMW Champ. Italian Open Deutsche Bank Barclays KLM Open Wyndham PGA Championship WGC-Bridgestone Barracuda
Justin Rose
(292.33 pts)
DNP DNP T2
(150)
DNP T13
(37)
DNP CUT
(-10)
T16
(17)
DNP DNP 4
(53.33)
3
(45)
DNP
Brooks Koepka
(230.67 pts)
DNP T2
(100)
T18
(48)
DNP T49
(1)
DNP CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-5)
DNP T6
(20)
5
(46.67)
6
(30)
DNP
Daniel Berger
(180 pts)
DNP DNP T12
(57)
DNP 2
(100)
DNP T12
(38)
CUT
(-5)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP
Rory McIlroy
(174 pts)
DNP DNP T16
(51)
DNP T4
(80)
DNP T29
(21)
DNP DNP DNP 17
(22)
DNP DNP
Hideki Matsuyama
(167.33 pts)
DNP DNP T12
(57)
DNP T7
(55)
DNP T25
(25)
T13
(18.5)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
37
(8.67)
37
(6.5)
DNP
Robert Streb
(153.17 pts)
DNP DNP T18
(48)
DNP T23
(27)
DNP T39
(11)
T39
(5.5)
DNP DNP 10
(26.67)
5
(35)
DNP
Matt Jones
(117.33 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T32
(18)
DNP T4
(80)
T53
(0)
DNP DNP 21
(19.33)
DNP DNP
Kevin Na
(116.83 pts)
DNP DNP T16
(51)
DNP T10
(40)
DNP T60
(0)
T20
(15)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
15
(17.5)
DNP
Chris Stroud
(91.67 pts)
DNP T2
(100)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-5)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP DNP
Hunter Mahan
(87.67 pts)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-10)
T32
(18)
DNP T4
(80)
CUT
(-5)
DNP DNP 43
(4.67)
72
(0)
DNP
Steven Bowditch
(86.83 pts)
DNP DNP T12
(57)
DNP T41
(9)
DNP CUT
(-10)
T13
(18.5)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
12
(19)
DNP
Daniel Summerhays
(86.33 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T41
(9)
DNP T9
(45)
T6
(30)
DNP T43
(2.33)
DNP DNP DNP
Kevin Chappell
(82.67 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T23
(27)
DNP T12
(38)
T24
(13)
DNP DNP 43
(4.67)
DNP DNP
Brendan Steele
(81.67 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T13
(37)
DNP T44
(6)
CUT
(-5)
DNP DNP 12
(25.33)
DNP T7
(18.33)
Brandt Snedeker
(79.17 pts)
DNP DNP T22
(42)
DNP 66
(0)
DNP T44
(6)
CUT
(-5)
DNP T43
(2.33)
12
(25.33)
33
(8.5)
DNP
Justin Thomas
(75.33 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T13
(37)
DNP T56
(0)
T16
(17)
DNP T56
(0)
18
(21.33)
DNP DNP
Cameron Tringale
(64.33 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T7
(55)
DNP T44
(6)
T30
(10)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP
Charl Schwartzel
(64.17 pts)
DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP T19
(31)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-5)
DNP T3
(30)
37
(8.67)
31
(9.5)
DNP
Kyle Reifers
(54.33 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T25
(25)
CUT
(-5)
DNP T47
(1)
DNP DNP 2
(33.33)
Nick Watney
(51.67 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T19
(31)
DNP T44
(6)
CUT
(-5)
DNP T31
(6.33)
30
(13.33)
DNP DNP
Jerry Kelly
(50.67 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T62
(0)
DNP T9
(45)
CUT
(-5)
DNP T18
(10.67)
DNP DNP DNP
Ryan Palmer
(50.33 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T23
(27)
DNP T65
(0)
T6
(30)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
70
(0)
DNP
Webb Simpson
(48.5 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T64
(0)
DNP T44
(6)
T30
(10)
DNP T6
(20)
54
(0)
25
(12.5)
DNP
Russell Knox
(48 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T45
(5)
DNP T12
(38)
T20
(15)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP
William McGirt
(46 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T49
(1)
DNP T12
(38)
CUT
(-5)
DNP T14
(12)
DNP DNP DNP

How Player Rankings are Computed

Who’s Not Hot in the field for the Frys.com Open

Player British Masters Dunhill Links Tour Championship European Open BMW Champ. Italian Open Deutsche Bank Barclays KLM Open Wyndham PGA Championship WGC-Bridgestone Barracuda
Matt Every
(-23.33 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-5)
DNP WD
(-1.67)
CUT
(-6.67)
74
(0)
DNP
Martin Laird
(-21.67 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-5)
DNP T59
(0)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP
Jason Kokrak
(-16.67 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-5)
DNP WD
(-1.67)
DNP DNP DNP
Erik Compton
(-14.17 pts)
DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP WD
(-2.5)
DNP WD
(-1.67)
DNP DNP DNP
Tim Clark
(-12.67 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-5)
DNP T43
(2.33)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Geoff Ogilvy
(-10 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Chad Campbell
(-8.67 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-5)
DNP T31
(6.33)
DNP DNP DNP
Chesson Hadley
(-8.33 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP 74
(0)
CUT
(-5)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
61
(0)
DNP DNP
Chad Collins
(-8.33 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-5)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP DNP
Adam Hadwin
(-8.33 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-5)
DNP T51
(0)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)

How Player Rankings are Computed

The Buzz:

Hard to believe that just like that 2015 is over, and the 2016 season is starting up.  Yes, because the new wrap around schedule makes playing in October in the 2015 season, it’s a great way of getting a jump on folks.  In the old days of the PGA Tour, when you showed up the first week of January at Kapalua, everyone started out at zero dollars and when FedEx Cup points started in 2007 you had zero points and everyone’s year was off and running.  For some, especially those from Europe, they wouldn’t make their first start until 8 weeks into the season at the WGC-Match Play, which use to be the last event on the West Coast swing. Even with the late start it was no problem because they knew that there were 32 events before the season ended at the Tour Championship.

Things are seriously different these days on the PGA Tour.  When the PGA Tour decided in 2013 to change the last seven events on tour and go to a wrap-around schedule in which those events started out the season instead of ending the year, it brought lot’s of change and created for some a magical way of getting better results on the PGA Tour.  When those events ended the season it was all about saving your tour card for the following season and making a few more dollars.  Now these fall events have become important to keep your season balance because it’s become a big advantage for players to tee it up early.

Two years ago Jimmy Walker won the Frys and then followed it up with wins at the Sony Open in Hawaii and the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-am.  After that Walker had top-tens in the Masters, Players Championship, Colonial, U.S. Open, PGA Championship and the Deutsche Bank.  He finished 2014 7th in the FedEx Cup race and 4th on the money list

In the 2015 season, Robert Streb got off to a great start finishing T31st at the Frys.com Open, then the next week finished T-10th at the Shriners Hospitals.  When he won in his third start of the season at the McGladrey, it made his whole year and he stayed #1 in the rankings through Hyundai.  He dropped to 11th after the Masters and dropped to a season low of 15 after the Players but worked his way back to 5th going into the PGA Championship with a runner-up finish at Greenbrier and a 5th at WGC-Bridgestone. He went on to finish 18th in the FedEx Cup race.

The point is you have to play in these fall events or you find yourself too far down.  For Adam Scott he wanted to spend time in Australia with his wife and their new child.  He didn’t start until the Florida swing, which meant the tour was a third of the way over.  Scott went on to have a terrible year.

Going up against the NFL is suicide but the problem for the PGA Tour is if they don’t do the events, someone else will.  Players will play in Europe or Australia or Japan or Asia.  So they have these tournaments, in which folks are sponsoring.  The Tour also got a big break, over the last couple of years the Golf Channel became the place to watch golf.  They don’t mind competing with the NFL even though I have been told that Golf Channel loses a fortune with these fall events.  With this and the advent of events in Asian coming online, this created a way for the PGA Tour to complete against the NFL.  Frankly it’s like background noise, nice to have PGA Tour golf in the fall but it’s still not the same as golf between the Hawaii stops and the Tour Championship.

Still at the end of the day the events in the fall are getting more marquee names and increasing viewership.  Still many “purists” would love to see the tour shut down after the Tour Championship and not start again until January, but that is never going to happen.

About the Frys.com Open:

This event started in Scottsdale, Arizona and after three years at Grayhawk transferred to CordeValle Golf Club, close to it’s sponsors headquarters in San Jose.  The hope was that CordeValle would be a temporary home as it’s been a dream to hold the event at the Institute Golf Course in Morgan Hill, CA.   But construction problems and such have forced the event not to be played on the ultra private course that very few have ever seen.  So CordeValle was to be a short term fix, and for last year and this year the event is being played in Napa Valley at the Silverado resort.  Then the event is supposed to move to the Institute Golf Course (which is suppose to be a great course) next year, but after the success at Silverado I would be a days pay the switch doesn’t happen.

Course information:

Many will not remember, but Silverado was a proud site of the PGA Tour between 1968 to 1980 and then held a senior event, the Transamerica between 1990 and 2002.  So Silverado had a deep relationship with professional golf.  The resort changed direction because it didn’t need to spend the money to host a professional event.  Napa Valley has become a great destination for couples over 40, between the great weather and the vineyards, Silverado didn’t need it.  The resort lost some of its touch and needed some sprucing up. One of the areas that have been improved was the golf courses.  There are two of them, the South and the North, a couple of years ago Johnny Miller put together an investment group that purchased the courses, and Miller reworked the North Course. What Miller did was revamped all of the greens, put in new bunkering and realigned the fairways and trimmed the trees that were too cumbersome.  Of course because of the downturn of the golf marketplace, Miller didn’t go crazy by changing a lot of the holes, adding lakes and streams.  Still Miller is happy at the work, and he is hopeful to be able to do the same to the South Course.

So what will the pros find this week?  The greens are one of the things that Miller points out that makes it a better course.  “These greens are as tough as Augusta at high speeds,” Miller said to Golf.com. “I would probably have five three putts a round.”  The course was also increased from 6,900 to 7,203.  Now on the surface this may be too short for the best pros in the world.  So I can see both the long distance players having a field day while the shorter hitters also enjoying shorter approaches to the greens.  One thing that was brought out in the 13 years it was played in the 70s,  the caliber of champions which included players like Billy Casper, Johnny Miller, Tom Watson and Ben Crenshaw among it’s champions.

Another important aspect of the Miller redo, in an effort to improve playability and aesthetics, turf renovation got rid of Kikuyu grass and return the course to its original mix of rye and Kentucky bluegrass condition.

The course was a big hit with the players, sponsors and fans and provided some great theater.

 

New things for 2016:

We are always looking for new things to put in and we have an idea that we are working on for the new year.  Each course has historical stats for different stats catagories and ranks them with the other courses on the PGA Tour for that year.  So we are going to take the four stat catagories that are tough for the week and then take the players in the field, look for their ranking for those sta compared to all the other players.  We will add up their rankings for the four different catagories and figure out which players are top for the week.  We are still working on the format but here is a taste of what we are working on, giving out the top-20 in this year’s field off of our list:

We haven’t come up with a name for it yet, but for now we are calling it  COURSE KEYS

(P.S. sorry it’s ugly right now)

This is based on the most important stats for Silverdo, based on data from last years Frys.co, and using data from all the players for stats from 2015.

Strokes gained Tee-to-Green   Can’t rank this stat for course data

Putting from 10 feet and in: Silverado ranked 2nd of the 39 courses in the 2015 ranking

Par 3 scoring average: Silverado ranked T-9th of the 52 courses in the 2015 ranking

Driving accuracy: Silverado ranked 14th of the 51 courses in the 2015 ranking

 

                           Rank Strokes Gained            Rank Putting                  Rank for             Rank for                          Total rank

NAME                      Tee-to-green                from 10 feet & in          Par 3 average    Driving accuracy              four catgories

Jason Bohn                    40                                      31                                   18                              5                                     94

Brendon Todd               70                                        1                                    28                            10                                   109

Will Wilcox                    20                                      76                                    2                              18                                    116

Jim Herman                  52                                       27                                   18                             33                                   130

Graham DeLaet            67                                       18                                    8                              47                                   140

Jerry Kelly                     69                                       65                                    2                               9                                    145

Russell Knox                 23                                       63                                   35                             28                                  149

Ryan Moore                  43                                       62                                    49                             11                                  165

Robert Streb                  27                                      25                                     2                             123                                 177

Brendon de Jonge        57                                      60                                    18                             44                                  179

Kevin Na                         28                                     52                                    18                              84                                 182

Chad Campbell              44                                    94                                     13                              41                                  192

Webb Simpson               7                                     164                                     8                               26                                 205

Jon Curran                    111                                     17                                     49                              32                                 209

Justin Rose                     6                                     111                                     28                             64                                   209

Daniel Berger                 33                                    27                                     49                            104                                  213

Johnson Wagner           121                                    6                                       2                               86                                  215

Colt Knost                       129                                  46                                     35                                7                                   217

George McNeill              50                                     73                                    35                               60                                 218

Zac Blair                         142                                   20                                    35                              23                                 220

 

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Frys.com Open:

Key stat for the winner:

Last year hitting fairways and putting became the keys to playing well.  Silverado had the 14th hardest fairways to hit last year so hitting it straight is important.  Also putting was important, on putts from 4 to 8 feet it ranked the 4th hardest to making those putts and from inside 10 feet the 2nd hardest on tour.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

  • Since course is still new for a good share of the players, experience will play a very limited role.  Traditionally tournaments on the PGA Tour that hold events for the first and second year, are won by journeymen and players with very little experience winning.  Last year’s winnner Sangmoon Bae fit that bill so expect the unexpected for this week.
  • Johnny Miller says the greens are perfect and fast, so good putter should have a field day.
  • Scrambling is also very important because it’s not that demanding around the greens at Silverado.  Last year it ranked 25th hardest, still to win you have to get up and down on those greens you miss.
  • Lastly a lot of journeyman are in the field.  Yes there are 15 winners from last year’s PGA Tour season.  Yes Rory McIlroy and Justin Rose are in the field.  Yes 8 players from the 2015 Tour Championship are in the field along with four players (Steven Boditch, Chris Kirk, Hideki Matsuyama and Charl Schwartzel are in the field.  But also in the field will be a lot of pro’s that just got their tour cards off the Web.Com Tour playoffs.  Off the list of 50 qualifiers there was room for the top-35 this week and only three (Patton Kizzire, Kyle Stanley and Anirban Lahiri aren’t in the field)  So look for the winner being a Jamie Lovemark or a Chez Reavie, fresh from getting their Tour cards over a Rory McIlroy or Justin Rose.
  • Weather should be like it always is in the Napa area, picture perfect.

 

Who to watch for at the Frys.com Open

Best Bets:

Rory McIlroy

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
First time playing in this event

Of course we are going to make Rory the favorite, he is the best in the field and on paper should win. He has the game but can he perform to his full potential is the big question.

Justin Rose

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
First time playing in this event

Now this is a course that he should do very well on. He hits it straight off the tee and does do well putting from ten feet in.

Hideki Matsuyama

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
T3 T3

He has finished 3rd in this event the last two years. But giving him more of a nod he was 8th in strokes gained tee-to-green and can also putt well enough to do well.

Best of the rest:

Brooks Koepka

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
T8 T3

Another with two top-tens the last two years including a T-8th last year, his putting makes him my favorite. He was 1st in putting from 4 to 8 feet and 14th inside 10 feet.

Jason Bohn

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
CUT T40 CUT

He is on top on our Silverado keys to victory, yes he missed the cut last year but still think things will change for him, in looking at his record for 2015 he played well on tough courses like Quail Hollow, Colonial and Robert Trent Jones.

Ryan Palmer

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
T48 T48 T44

Playing for the first time at Silverado, has some of the key stats like 4th in putting from inside ten feet to make him one of our favorites

Solid contenders

Hunter Mahan

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
T3

Was T-3rd last year at Silverado, he did finish T-4th in the Deutsche Bank last month.

Brendon Todd

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
T26 CUT CUT

Playing for the first time at Silverado, he led the putting inside 10 feet stat and it’s the ball very straight.

Ryan Moore

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
T8 CUT T6

Hasn’t played in this event since it was in Arizona in 2009, have to like him because he has won the last two years in fall events. Also very high in our Silverado keys, think he will surprise a few.

Graham DeLaet

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
T39 T6

Still surprised he hasn’t won yet, 2016 should be the year.

Long shots that could come through:

Jon Curran

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
T8

He finished T-8th last year but comes in high on our Silverado keys, 17th in making putts inside 10 feet.

Justin Thomas

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
CUT T72

Another of those players that could win in 2016, he was 17th in strokes gained tee-to-green and shouldn’t worry about him missing the cut last year.

Tony Finau

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
T12

Was T-12th last year, another of those young guns that could win in 2016.

Comments

  1. Great idea bringing the course keys to the table! I tried something similar last year with some success. With your resources I am excited to see what it can produce. Keep up the great work.

  2. Glad you like it. We are in the final process of automating the process so that you can get everyone in the field with stats. The top-10 will be in the preview each week. The new chart, which we are going to call “Key to playing this week’s course” will be a part of our Golfstats IQ. If you haven’t checked it out you should.

Speak Your Mind

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.