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BlogMayakoba Preview and Picks

Mayakoba Golf Classic

November 12th – 15th, 2015

El Camaleon

Playa Del Carmen,, Mexico

Par: 71 / Yardage:

Purse: $6.2 Million

with $1,116,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Charley Hoffman

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This week’s field includes:

The field includes three players from the top 50 in the latest Official World Rankings, with the highest rank player being #16 Matt Kuchar.  There is a total of 13 top-100 players in the field (total 14), after Kuchar its #31 Russell Knox, #42 Charley Hoffman, #63 Brendon Todd, #65 Keegan Bradley, #67 Jason Bohn, #72 Brendan Steele, #74 Patton Kizzire, #79 Smylie Kaufman, #85 Graeme McDowell, #87 Brian Harman, #91 Harris English, #98 Patrick Rodgers and #100 Hiroshi Iwata.

Last year there was no top-50 players and a total of 14 players in the top-100.

The field includes 10 of the Top 25 on the FedEx point standings for 2016.  Those players are Those players are #3 Russell Knox, #4 Smylie Kaufman, #7 Jason Bohn, #8 Peter Malnati, #11 Patton Kizzire, #13 Brendan Steele, #14 Alex Cejka, #15 Brett Stegmaier, #16 Patrick Rodgers and #19 Tyrone Van Aswegen.

The field includes 8 players in the top 25 on this year’s PGA Tour money list.  Those players are #2 Russell Knox, #4 Smylie Kaufman, #8 Peter Malnati, #9 Jason Bohn, #11 Patton Kizzire, #13 Brendan Steele, #14 Alex Cejka, #15 Brett Stegmaier, #18 Patrick Rodgers, #21 Tyrone Van Aswegen and #25 Jhonattan Vegas.

The field includes all 7 of the 8 past champions: Charley Hoffman (2015), Harris English (2014), John Huh (2012), Johnson Wagner (2011), Cameron Beckman (2010), Mark Wilson (2009) and Fred Funk (2007).

A perfect way for fantasy golfers to check on the past performance of all the players in the OHL Classic at Mayakoba field is our performance chart listed by average finish. Another way to check who is the best is through a special formula worked out in Golfstats that gives us the best average performances at the  OHL Classic at Mayakoba in the last five years or check out our sortable 8-year glance at the  OHL Classic at Mayakoba.

A good cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmakers in England.

Another cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmaker in Las Vegas.

**NOTE**

One thing to look for is our new GOLFstats IQ.  For those that play in fantasy golf it’s a perfect way to help you pick those players in Draft Kings and Victiv games.  You can customize the list of those in the tournaments, to look back a couple or many years of tournament stats and you can go back a couple or ten weeks prior to the tournament.  On top of that, all the stats are fully sortable to help you pick your six players, we even give you their value for the week to help you chose.

That’s GOLFstats IQ, give it a try and tell us what you think of it

24/7 GOLF

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We have the perfect solution for you.  If you own a Iphone or a Ipad we have developed a perfect app called 24/7 GOLF.

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So check it out, just hit this link to get 24/7 GOLF:

Screen Shot 2015-04-23 at 12.01.34 AM

Time to look at our who’s hot and who isn’t:

Who’s Hot in the field for the Mayakoba Golf Classic

Player WGC-HSBC Sanderson Farms CIMB Classic Turkish Open Shriners Hospitals Hong Kong Frys.com Open Portugal Masters British Masters Dunhill Links Tour Championship European Open BMW Championship
Patton Kizzire
(180 pts)
DNP T4
(80)
DNP DNP T2
(100)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Jason Bohn
(171 pts)
DNP T39
(11)
DNP DNP T2
(100)
DNP T3
(60)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T64
(0)
Russell Knox
(168.83 pts)
Win
(132)
DNP T21
(29)
DNP T38
(12)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T45
(2.5)
Smylie Kaufman
(158.67 pts)
DNP T54
(0)
DNP DNP Win
(132)
DNP T10
(26.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Brett Stegmaier
(135 pts)
DNP T15
(35)
DNP DNP T2
(100)
DNP T74
(0)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Alex Cejka
(133 pts)
DNP DNP T17
(33)
DNP T2
(100)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Peter Malnati
(125.33 pts)
DNP Win
(132)
DNP DNP T56
(0)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Brendan Steele
(120.5 pts)
DNP DNP T3
(90)
DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP T17
(22)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T13
(18.5)
Jhonattan Vegas
(113.67 pts)
DNP T4
(80)
DNP DNP T43
(7)
DNP T10
(26.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Patrick Rodgers
(107 pts)
DNP T20
(30)
DNP DNP T13
(37)
DNP T6
(40)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Chris Stroud
(105.33 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T38
(12)
DNP T10
(26.67)
DNP DNP T2
(66.67)
DNP DNP DNP
Roberto Castro
(87 pts)
DNP T4
(80)
DNP DNP T43
(7)
DNP T69
(0)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Aaron Baddeley
(80 pts)
DNP T4
(80)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T55
(0)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Graeme McDowell
(77.67 pts)
DNP DNP DNP T37
(13)
DNP T24
(26)
DNP DNP T30
(13.33)
T19
(20.67)
DNP T36
(4.67)
DNP
Chad Campbell
(64.33 pts)
DNP DNP T29
(21)
DNP T8
(50)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Harris English
(63.5 pts)
T23
(27)
DNP T43
(7)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T22
(14)
DNP T19
(15.5)
Bryce Molder
(63.33 pts)
DNP T4
(80)
DNP DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T68
(0)
Stewart Cink
(63 pts)
DNP DNP T17
(33)
DNP T56
(0)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T9
(30)
DNP DNP DNP
Brendon De Jonge
(62.33 pts)
DNP DNP T27
(23)
DNP T13
(37)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T32
(9)
Charles Howell III
(62 pts)
DNP DNP T10
(40)
DNP 70
(0)
DNP T17
(22)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Tyrone Van Aswegen
(60 pts)
DNP T54
(0)
DNP DNP T56
(0)
DNP T3
(60)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Spencer Levin
(59.33 pts)
DNP DNP T17
(33)
DNP T25
(25)
DNP T48
(1.33)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Andrew Loupe
(56.67 pts)
DNP T10
(40)
DNP DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP T10
(26.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
David Hearn
(50.33 pts)
DNP DNP T29
(21)
DNP T25
(25)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T28
(11)
Scott Stallings
(49.33 pts)
DNP T28
(22)
DNP DNP T16
(34)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP

How Player Rankings are Computed

Who’s Not Hot in the field for the Mayakoba Golf Classic

Player WGC-HSBC Sanderson Farms CIMB Classic Turkish Open Shriners Hospitals Hong Kong Frys.com Open Portugal Masters British Masters Dunhill Links Tour Championship European Open BMW Championship
Tim Clark
(-26.67 pts)
DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Rhein Gibson
(-26.67 pts)
DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Dicky Pride
(-26.67 pts)
DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Robert Allenby
(-26.67 pts)
DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Abraham Ancer
(-26.67 pts)
DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Pat Perez
(-20.83 pts)
DNP DNP 63
(0)
DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP T45
(2.5)
Mark Wilson
(-20 pts)
DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Jonas Blixt
(-18.67 pts)
DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP T48
(1.33)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Whee Kim
(-16.67 pts)
DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP T76
(0)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Sam Saunders
(-16.67 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP

How Player Rankings are Computed

The Buzz:

Can you believe it, we have had five events in 2016 and five first time PGA Tour winners.  I went back 40 years in the achieves of the PGA Tour to 1976 and found that the tour never had five first time winners in a row.  We have seen four in a row, done six times the last being in 2002 with Charles Howell III winning Michelob, Phil Taturangi winning at Las Vegas, Bob Burns winning at Disney and Jonathan Byrd winning the Buick Challenge.  Funny, many think that there was five in a row, the week after the Buick Challenge was the Sanderson Farms and Tour Championship.  But the final round got postponed to a Monday finish and Vijay Singh broke the streak.  The next day rain wiped out the final round of the Southern Farm Bureau Classic (Sanderson) and Luke Donald won his first event at just 54 holes.  Some count this, but the Tour Championship broke the streak the day before.

We have to wonder how many first-timers will win this year?  Last year there was 11 in 47 events, we have had five in five events so maybe this year will be a breakout year for first-timers.

Course information:

El Camaleon was built by Greg Norman and opened in 2004. The course wines through three distinct landscapes tropical jungle, dense mangroves and sand-lined oceanfront. The design even incorporates a cenote – an underground cavern common to the area – into the heart of the first fairway. The PGA Tour made its first stop in 2007, spending six years opposite the World Golf Championships-Accenture Match Play Championship until getting its own fall date this year. In 2016, El Camaleón will serve as one of two hosts for the World Amateur Team Championships.

Located 45 minutes south of Cancun, in the heart of the Riviera Maya, Camaleon is aptly named for its diverse layout and ever changing landscape, always in total harmony with the region’s natural beauty.

For those that think that this is a resort course and is a pushover, that’s not the case.  The last time the Tour played there last year the course played under par at 70.019 and ranked 39th toughest.  Now that is quite a drop and shows what happens when the wind blows in off the Gulf of Mexico and doesn’t.  In 2014 conditions were mild, thus a easy scoring average.  But in February of 2012 the course played over par at 71.65 and ranked 17th toughest, so it’s not a pushover. In looking at it’s characteristics it’s in the middle of the pack compared to other courses that held events in 2012.  Driving accuracy it was the 20th hardest, in greens hit the 21st hardest.  Same with putting, the overall putting average placed it T19th so it has it’s challenges.

Looking at how the course did in 2014, driving accuracy it was the 29th hardest, in greens hit the 36th hardest.  Same with putting, the overall putting average placed it T25th so it has it’s challenges.  Last year with perfect conditions and no wind it was the 31st hardest in driving accuracy, 25th hardest in Greens hjit and overall putting it was the 41st.  Anything to do with around the greens and putting it was easy, scrambling saw it ranked 42nd so only ten other courses were easier to get up and down.  As for toughness, the course played to a average of 69.954, just over a shot under par as it was the 38th toughest of 52 courses played.  Also showing how easy the course was, 1603 birdies were made in the four days, only nine courses saw more but in seven of those courses more rounds were played.

So what will the field be challenge by?  Conditions of wind on holes that get close to the sea, the par 3 7th and 15th are on the beach.  Course water hazards comes into play on six of the holes and there are 36 bunkers to avoid.  The greens average 7,000 square feet with the grass being a special blend called Sea Isle 1 Paspalum which is unique because you can use a seawater blend in irrigating the fairways, tees and greens.  The course has a rating of 73.8 from the back tees with a slope of 137.

Now the bad news.  In looking at long range forecasts the weather is suppose to be just as bad as it was in Mississippi, with 50% chance of thunderstorms on Thursday and that’s the good day.  Friday it goes up to 80%, Saturday 90% and Sunday 80%.  So again look for a lot of delays and hassles for the players, just like this week.  The area has been bombarded with poor weather ever since Patricia went through Mexico at the end of October.  Lots of rain and it looks like that will be the case in the Playa Del Carmen area this week.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the OHL Mayakoba Classic:

Key stat for the winner:

In a tournament that has a history of younger players participating, older more experience players have done well.  In it’s first year in 2007, 50 year-old Fred Funk took the title and since Champion Tour standouts John Cook and Michael Allen have contended and finished in the top-ten.  Of it’s other five champions only John Huh and Brian Gay were first time winners so experience players tend to do well. In 2014 Harris English won for the second time, six months before he was a first time winner in the FedEx St. Jude Classic.  Last year Charley Hoffman won for the third time, so maybe that is a trend to look for, those that have won before.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

Tournament has only had limited stats, in 2012 John Huh led the greens hit category missing only 13 of the 72 greens. while 2014 winner Harris English was T-10th hitting 55 of 72 greens.  Last year Charley Hoffman hit 56 of 72 greens and ranked 4th so I would say players and winners tend to hit lot’s of greens at El Camaleon.  One other oddity that I noticed of the winners, they did very well on the par 3s, don’t know if that means anything.

 

Who to watch for at the Mayakoba Golf Classic

Best Bets:

Jason Bohn

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
T7 T3 T19

Played well in this event last year, he had some problems in the final round in Mississippi, but has played well this year.

Jhonattan Vegas

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
T56 T45 CUT T19

Has played very steady in his three starts of 2016, been under par in 11 of his 12 rounds. Was able to handle the poor weather in Mississippi, should be able to handle the poor weather this week.

Patton Kizzire

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
First time playing in this event

On the cusp of winning, could of been either last week in Mississippi or in Las Vegas.

Best of the rest:

Chris Stroud

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
T23 T3 T5 4 T40 T60 T12 CUT

Watch him, very good sleeper pick that has done great at El Camaleon.

Patrick Rodgers

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
T37

Guy has played well until the final round in Mississippi, still looking for him to content this week.

Alex Cejka

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
T16 WD T19 CUT

Has a great combination of making lots of birdies on tour in 2016 and at El Camaleon.

Matt Kuchar

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
T3 T18

Played great in this event in 2008, well rested and ready to go, he won on his last start four weeks ago in Fiji.

Charles Howell III

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
CUT T6 T16 T13 T20 T38

Watch him, has shown signs of playing well in his first three starts.

Solid contenders

Bryce Molder

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
T72 CUT

Knows how to handle wet conditions, could be good this week.

Peter Mainati

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
First time playing in this event

The question is if lightning can strike twice in two weeks. Played well in the wet conditions in Mississippi, played well on this course in 2014, will be looking to do it again.

Aaron Baddeley

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
T37 CUT

Another player that has good results in wet conditions, putter seems to solve lot’s of problems.

Boo Weekley

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
T71 T35 T55 6

Another bona fide “mudder”, knows how to play in wet conditions and is playing well.

Long shots that could come through:

Brendan Steele

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
T37 T16

Very good in last start in Malaysia, should play well in wet conditions.

Brett Stegmaier

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
First time playing in this event

Has played very steady this year, don’t worry if this is his first start in this event.

Roberto Castro

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
CUT

Hung around playing well in Mississippi in those poor conditions.

Don’t see it happened twice in two weeks:

Russell Knox

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
T37 T31 T30

Sorry but don’t see it happening two weeks in a row, specially after the long journey back from China.

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