BlogMayakoba Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

Can you believe it, we have had five events in 2016 and five first time PGA Tour winners.  I went back 40 years in the achieves of the PGA Tour to 1976 and found that the tour never had five first time winners in a row.  We have seen four in a row, done six times the last being in 2002 with Charles Howell III winning Michelob, Phil Taturangi winning at Las Vegas, Bob Burns winning at Disney and Jonathan Byrd winning the Buick Challenge.  Funny, many think that there was five in a row, the week after the Buick Challenge was the Sanderson Farms and Tour Championship.  But the final round got postponed to a Monday finish and Vijay Singh broke the streak.  The next day rain wiped out the final round of the Southern Farm Bureau Classic (Sanderson) and Luke Donald won his first event at just 54 holes.  Some count this, but the Tour Championship broke the streak the day before.

We have to wonder how many first-timers will win this year?  Last year there was 11 in 47 events, we have had five in five events so maybe this year will be a breakout year for first-timers.

Course information:

El Camaleon was built by Greg Norman and opened in 2004. The course wines through three distinct landscapes tropical jungle, dense mangroves and sand-lined oceanfront. The design even incorporates a cenote – an underground cavern common to the area – into the heart of the first fairway. The PGA Tour made its first stop in 2007, spending six years opposite the World Golf Championships-Accenture Match Play Championship until getting its own fall date this year. In 2016, El Camaleón will serve as one of two hosts for the World Amateur Team Championships.

Located 45 minutes south of Cancun, in the heart of the Riviera Maya, Camaleon is aptly named for its diverse layout and ever changing landscape, always in total harmony with the region’s natural beauty.

For those that think that this is a resort course and is a pushover, that’s not the case.  The last time the Tour played there last year the course played under par at 70.019 and ranked 39th toughest.  Now that is quite a drop and shows what happens when the wind blows in off the Gulf of Mexico and doesn’t.  In 2014 conditions were mild, thus a easy scoring average.  But in February of 2012 the course played over par at 71.65 and ranked 17th toughest, so it’s not a pushover. In looking at it’s characteristics it’s in the middle of the pack compared to other courses that held events in 2012.  Driving accuracy it was the 20th hardest, in greens hit the 21st hardest.  Same with putting, the overall putting average placed it T19th so it has it’s challenges.

Looking at how the course did in 2014, driving accuracy it was the 29th hardest, in greens hit the 36th hardest.  Same with putting, the overall putting average placed it T25th so it has it’s challenges.  Last year with perfect conditions and no wind it was the 31st hardest in driving accuracy, 25th hardest in Greens hjit and overall putting it was the 41st.  Anything to do with around the greens and putting it was easy, scrambling saw it ranked 42nd so only ten other courses were easier to get up and down.  As for toughness, the course played to a average of 69.954, just over a shot under par as it was the 38th toughest of 52 courses played.  Also showing how easy the course was, 1603 birdies were made in the four days, only nine courses saw more but in seven of those courses more rounds were played.

So what will the field be challenge by?  Conditions of wind on holes that get close to the sea, the par 3 7th and 15th are on the beach.  Course water hazards comes into play on six of the holes and there are 36 bunkers to avoid.  The greens average 7,000 square feet with the grass being a special blend called Sea Isle 1 Paspalum which is unique because you can use a seawater blend in irrigating the fairways, tees and greens.  The course has a rating of 73.8 from the back tees with a slope of 137.

Now the bad news.  In looking at long range forecasts the weather is suppose to be just as bad as it was in Mississippi, with 50% chance of thunderstorms on Thursday and that’s the good day.  Friday it goes up to 80%, Saturday 90% and Sunday 80%.  So again look for a lot of delays and hassles for the players, just like this week.  The area has been bombarded with poor weather ever since Patricia went through Mexico at the end of October.  Lots of rain and it looks like that will be the case in the Playa Del Carmen area this week.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the OHL Mayakoba Classic:

Key stat for the winner:

In a tournament that has a history of younger players participating, older more experience players have done well.  In it’s first year in 2007, 50 year-old Fred Funk took the title and since Champion Tour standouts John Cook and Michael Allen have contended and finished in the top-ten.  Of it’s other five champions only John Huh and Brian Gay were first time winners so experience players tend to do well. In 2014 Harris English won for the second time, six months before he was a first time winner in the FedEx St. Jude Classic.  Last year Charley Hoffman won for the third time, so maybe that is a trend to look for, those that have won before.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

Tournament has only had limited stats, in 2012 John Huh led the greens hit category missing only 13 of the 72 greens. while 2014 winner Harris English was T-10th hitting 55 of 72 greens.  Last year Charley Hoffman hit 56 of 72 greens and ranked 4th so I would say players and winners tend to hit lot’s of greens at El Camaleon.  One other oddity that I noticed of the winners, they did very well on the par 3s, don’t know if that means anything.