BlogDP World, Dubai Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

A new man is running the European Tour these days as Keith Pelley toke over the helm from George O’Grady over the summer.  With him aboard he has new ideas and is running the place a bit differently.  Look for him to be aggressive and willing to try new ideas as he tries to grow the European Tour.

This week’s ending at the DP World Championship shows a bit of excitement as Rory McIlroy has a very slim lead over Danny Willett.  So it’s in Rory hands and he may want to win the tournament, but the point race is so close that if Rory finishes worst than Willett, Danny would win.

In a way the final series of four events were a joke this year, participation was not perfect as Rory McIlroy took a pass on the BMW Masters, while Justin Rose took a pass on the WGC-HSBC Champions.  The ultimate pass probably comes from Sergio Garcia who took a pass from this week saying he was tired.  The European Tour also realized a big problem with the WGC-HSBC as many of the players up in the top of the point list, weren’t in the top-50 of the rankings and couldn’t play in the WGC-HSBC.  This problem will be taken next year when the event won’t be part of the final series.  Another change, the reduction from four events to three but frankly it’s still a point system and players will skip out playing in the first two.

The European Tour also has a problem with some of it’s marquee players not wanting to play in the 13 events to keep the card.  So the European Tour reduced the level to five by not counting majors and WGC events so basically it’s the same.

Under Pelley I see the European Tour getting better as he gets more marquee events.  Look for changes coming in 2017 to start a February run in Australia with their marquee events like the Australian Open and Australian Masters.  Already the Australian PGA will join the European Tour in December and in February the Perth International rejoins the tour.

The biggest challenge for Pelley will be to make sure players like Rory McIlroy don’t give up, the biggest plume that Pelley has is the Ryder Cup and if a player doesn’t fulfil his 13 event slate, he is not allowed to play in the Ryder Cup.  But frankly even with the five event rule, for some players that now have ties in the United States like Paul Casey it’s a struggle.  On the same front, Pelley has to be fair with those that play regularly on that Tour so he walks a thin wire across a deep canyon.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the DP World Championship:

Key stat for the winner:

Of the six previous winners, three of them have been the winner of the Race to Dubai so look at the leader of the Race to Dubai as a possible winner.  Rory McIlroy has that advantage this year, he won the event and the Race to Dubai in 2012.  The other duel winner was 2014 champion Henrik Stenson and in 2009 Lee Westwood won both the tournament and the Race to Dubai.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

• Just look at the performance chart and you can see that this event has been owned by five different players, Rory McIlroy, Luke Donald, Ian Poulter, Lee Westwood and Henrik Stenson.  Throw in guys like Justin Rose, Charl Schwartzel and Jamie Donaldson I can narrow down the 60 players in the field down to around ten.
• Two important elements come across in the previous six winners.  First is driving distance, five of the six winners were in the top-ten while one (Alvaro Quiros in 2011) led while Rory McIlroy in 2012 was 2nd.  Hitting greens is also very important, last year’s winner Stenson was T-4th and led that category in 2013 just like Lee Westwood in 2009.  In 2011 Alvaro Quiros was T2nd, so you have to hit the ball good and straight from tee to green
• All of the par-5s are easy, last year Stenson played them in 10 under. The best was 12 under by Alvaro Quiros in 2011 while the worst was Robert Karlsson in 2010 when he played them in 7 under
• Surprisingly all of the winners have played the par 4s well, Stenson was 4 under last year but the previews year was 14 under. Lee Westwood played them in 13 under in 2009 while the worst was Robert Karlsson at 7 under in 2010.
• You will have no probably with the weather as each day is sunny and in the mid-80s.  There are zero chance of any rain in the next week, and there won’t be any wind, so players can attack the course.