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BlogDP World, Dubai Preview and Picks

DP World Championship, Dubai

November 19th – 22nd, 2015

Earth Course, Jumeirah Golf Estates

Dubai, United Arab Emirates

Par: 72 / Yardage: 7,675

Purse: $8 Million

with $1,514,137 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Henrik Stenson

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This week’s field includes:

The field includes 19 of the top 50 in the latest Official World Rankings, with three top-ten players in the field, #3 Rory McIlroy, #5 Justin Rose, #6 Henrik Stenson, #13 Louis Oosthuizen, #14 Patrick Reed, #18 Shane Lowry, #19 Branden Grace, #21 Danny Willett, #26 Martin Kaymer, #28 Thongchai Jaidee, #30 Bernd Wiesberger, #35 Victor Dubuisson, #36 Emiliano Grillo, #39 Byeong Hun An, #41 Kiradech Aphibarnrat, #42 Anirban Lahiri, #46 Soren Kjeldsen, #49 Matthew Fitzpatrick and #50 Ian Poulter.

Last year there were 19 top-50 players in the field

The field includes all of the players in the top-60 on this year’s Race to Dubai money list.

The field includes 3 of the 6 past champions: Henrik Stenson (2014, & ’13),Rory McIlroy (2012) and Lee Westwood (2000).

The field includes 23 players that have won 30 of the 47 European Tour events this year: Danny Willett (Nedbank, European Masters), Branden Grace (Alfred Dunhill, Qatar Masters), Andy Sullivan (South African Open, Joburg Open & Portugal Masters), Gary Stal (Abu Dhabi), Rory McIlroy (Dubai Desert Classic & WGC-Cadillac Match Play), Anirban Lahiri (Maybank Malaysian Open & Hero Indian Open), Richie Ramsay (Trophee Hassan), Kiradech Aphibarnrat (Shenzhen International & Paul Lawrie Match Play), James Morrison (Open de Espana), Byeong-Hun An (BMW PGA Championship), Soren Kjeldsen (Irish Open), Alex Noren (Nordea Masters), Chris Wood (Lyoness Open), Pablo Larrazabal (BMW International), Bernd Wiesberger (French Open), Shane Lowry (WGC-Bridgestone), Thomas Pieters (KLM Open), Rikard Karlberg (Open D’Italia) Thongchai Jaidee (Porsche European Open). Thorbjorn Olesen (Dunhill Links), Matthew Fitzpatrick (British Masters), Justin Rose (Hong Kong Open) and Victor Dubuisson (Turkish Airlines Open)

A perfect way for fantasy golfers to check on the past performance of all the players in the DP World Championship field is our performance chart listed by average finish. One last way to check who is the best is through a special formula worked out in Golfstats that gives us the best average performances at DP World Championship in the last five years or check out our brand new and sortable 8-year glance at the DP World Championship.

A good cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmakers in England.

Another cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmaker in Las Vegas.

**NOTE**

One thing to look for is our new GOLFstats IQ.  For those that play in fantasy golf it’s a perfect way to help you pick those players in Draft Kings and Victiv games.  You can customize the list of those in the tournaments, to look back a couple or many years of tournament stats and you can go back a couple or ten weeks prior to the tournament.  On top of that, all the stats are fully sortable to help you pick your six players, we even give you their value for the week to help you chose.

That’s GOLFstats IQ, give it a try and tell us what you think of it

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We have the perfect solution for you.  If you own a Iphone or a Ipad we have developed a perfect app called 24/7 GOLF.

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Time to look at our who’s hot and who isn’t:

Who’s Hot in the field for the DP World Championship, Dubai

Player BMW Masters WGC-HSBC Turkish Open CIMB Classic Hong Kong Open Portugal Masters British Masters Dunhill Links European Open Italian Open Tour Championship KLM Open BMW Championship
Matthew Fitzpatrick
(297.33 pts)
T13
(37)
T7
(55)
T26
(24)
DNP T3
(60)
DNP Win
(88)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T3
(30)
DNP T30
(6.67)
DNP
Patrick Reed
(277.5 pts)
2
(100)
T7
(55)
DNP T10
(40)
T3
(60)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP 27
(11.5)
DNP T28
(11)
Lucas Bjerregaard
(254 pts)
T3
(90)
DNP T26
(24)
DNP 2
(66.67)
T9
(30)
CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
T5
(23.33)
T3
(30)
DNP T66
(0)
DNP
Thongchai Jaidee
(221.67 pts)
T3
(90)
T11
(39)
T26
(24)
DNP T13
(24.67)
DNP DNP DNP Win
(44)
DNP DNP DNP DNP
Chris Wood
(214.67 pts)
T22
(28)
T51
(0)
5
(70)
DNP DNP 2
(66.67)
T9
(30)
T4
(26.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Justin Rose
(211.5 pts)
T7
(55)
DNP DNP DNP Win
(88)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T2
(50)
DNP T13
(18.5)
Soren Kjeldsen
(202.67 pts)
T9
(45)
T46
(4)
T11
(39)
DNP DNP T37
(8.67)
T2
(66.67)
T9
(15)
T9
(15)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T12
(12.67)
DNP
Henrik Stenson
(202 pts)
T3
(90)
T11
(39)
DNP T47
(3)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T2
(50)
DNP T10
(20)
Byeong-Hun An
(201.33 pts)
T3
(90)
T19
(31)
4
(80)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
T19
(10.33)
DNP DNP DNP DNP
Kiradech Aphibarnrat
(199 pts)
T31
(19)
T30
(20)
3
(90)
DNP DNP DNP T5
(46.67)
T4
(26.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP DNP DNP
Danny Willett
(183.67 pts)
T28
(22)
T3
(90)
T11
(39)
DNP DNP DNP T46
(2.67)
T52
(0)
DNP T3
(30)
DNP DNP DNP
Victor Dubuisson
(179.33 pts)
T17
(33)
DNP Win
(132)
DNP T32
(12)
DNP DNP T43
(2.33)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Thomas Pieters
(168.67 pts)
T13
(37)
T23
(27)
T26
(24)
DNP DNP T6
(40)
T64
(0)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP DNP Win
(44)
DNP
Kristoffer Broberg
(160.67 pts)
Win
(132)
DNP T50
(1)
DNP DNP T64
(0)
T17
(22)
T38
(4)
CUT
(-3.33)
T25
(8.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Rory McIlroy
(156 pts)
DNP T11
(39)
T6
(60)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T16
(17)
DNP T4
(40)
Jaco Van Zyl
(143.67 pts)
T46
(4)
DNP 2
(100)
DNP DNP T31
(12.67)
T25
(16.67)
DNP WD
(-1.67)
T14
(12)
DNP DNP DNP
Branden Grace
(137.67 pts)
T22
(28)
T5
(70)
DNP T17
(33)
DNP DNP DNP T30
(6.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Andy Sullivan
(131 pts)
T17
(33)
T64
(0)
T60
(0)
DNP DNP Win
(88)
T46
(2.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP DNP T18
(10.67)
DNP
Ross Fisher
(130.33 pts)
T13
(37)
T3
(90)
T68
(0)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
T5
(23.33)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Anthony Wall
(129.33 pts)
T41
(9)
DNP 25
(25)
DNP DNP T3
(60)
T9
(30)
T19
(10.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP WD
(-1.67)
DNP
Shane Lowry
(127 pts)
T56
(0)
T68
(0)
8
(50)
DNP DNP DNP T2
(66.67)
T19
(10.33)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Fabrizio Zanotti
(125 pts)
T63
(0)
DNP T50
(1)
DNP DNP DNP T2
(66.67)
T52
(0)
T48
(0.67)
T3
(30)
DNP 4
(26.67)
DNP
Ian Poulter
(118.33 pts)
T11
(39)
T30
(20)
T16
(34)
DNP T29
(14)
DNP T33
(11.33)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T53
(0)
Bernd Wiesberger
(118 pts)
T24
(26)
T17
(33)
T50
(1)
DNP DNP T16
(22.67)
DNP T4
(26.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
T14
(12)
DNP DNP DNP
Peter Uihlein
(116 pts)
T28
(22)
DNP T6
(60)
DNP T13
(24.67)
DNP WD
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
T12
(12.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T30
(6.67)
DNP

How Player Rankings are Computed

Who’s Not Hot in the field for the DP World Championship, Dubai

Player BMW Masters WGC-HSBC Turkish Open CIMB Classic Hong Kong Open Portugal Masters British Masters Dunhill Links European Open Italian Open Tour Championship KLM Open BMW Championship
Pablo Larrazabal
(-13.33 pts)
T60
(0)
DNP T60
(0)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
T69
(0)
CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP DNP DNP
Raphael Jacquelin
(-8.33 pts)
T70
(0)
DNP T47
(3)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
T24
(8.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T63
(0)
DNP
Richie Ramsay
(-6.67 pts)
T53
(0)
DNP T56
(0)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Alex Noren
(4 pts)
T46
(4)
T54
(0)
T66
(0)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Miguel A. Jimenez
(11.67 pts)
74
(0)
T46
(4)
T68
(0)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T54
(0)
DNP T36
(4.67)
T11
(13)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Gary Stal
(14.67 pts)
T31
(19)
DNP T41
(9)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
T64
(0)
T59
(0)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Charl Schwartzel
(23 pts)
DNP T35
(15)
T50
(1)
DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
T19
(10.33)
DNP DNP DNP DNP
Joost Luiten
(27.67 pts)
T46
(4)
DNP T60
(0)
DNP DNP DNP T33
(11.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
T30
(6.67)
DNP DNP T23
(9)
DNP
Eddie Pepperell
(28 pts)
T53
(0)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T33
(11.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T5
(23.33)
DNP
Louis Oosthuizen
(32 pts)
T37
(13)
T44
(6)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP WD
(-2.5)
DNP T19
(15.5)

How Player Rankings are Computed

The Buzz:

A new man is running the European Tour these days as Keith Pelley toke over the helm from George O’Grady over the summer.  With him aboard he has new ideas and is running the place a bit differently.  Look for him to be aggressive and willing to try new ideas as he tries to grow the European Tour.

This week’s ending at the DP World Championship shows a bit of excitement as Rory McIlroy has a very slim lead over Danny Willett.  So it’s in Rory hands and he may want to win the tournament, but the point race is so close that if Rory finishes worst than Willett, Danny would win.

In a way the final series of four events were a joke this year, participation was not perfect as Rory McIlroy took a pass on the BMW Masters, while Justin Rose took a pass on the WGC-HSBC Champions.  The ultimate pass probably comes from Sergio Garcia who took a pass from this week saying he was tired.  The European Tour also realized a big problem with the WGC-HSBC as many of the players up in the top of the point list, weren’t in the top-50 of the rankings and couldn’t play in the WGC-HSBC.  This problem will be taken next year when the event won’t be part of the final series.  Another change, the reduction from four events to three but frankly it’s still a point system and players will skip out playing in the first two.

The European Tour also has a problem with some of it’s marquee players not wanting to play in the 13 events to keep the card.  So the European Tour reduced the level to five by not counting majors and WGC events so basically it’s the same.

Under Pelley I see the European Tour getting better as he gets more marquee events.  Look for changes coming in 2017 to start a February run in Australia with their marquee events like the Australian Open and Australian Masters.  Already the Australian PGA will join the European Tour in December and in February the Perth International rejoins the tour.

The biggest challenge for Pelley will be to make sure players like Rory McIlroy don’t give up, the biggest plume that Pelley has is the Ryder Cup and if a player doesn’t fulfil his 13 event slate, he is not allowed to play in the Ryder Cup.  But frankly even with the five event rule, for some players that now have ties in the United States like Paul Casey it’s a struggle.  On the same front, Pelley has to be fair with those that play regularly on that Tour so he walks a thin wire across a deep canyon.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the DP World Championship:

Key stat for the winner:

Of the six previous winners, three of them have been the winner of the Race to Dubai so look at the leader of the Race to Dubai as a possible winner.  Rory McIlroy has that advantage this year, he won the event and the Race to Dubai in 2012.  The other duel winner was 2014 champion Henrik Stenson and in 2009 Lee Westwood won both the tournament and the Race to Dubai.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

  • Just look at the performance chart and you can see that this event has been owned by five different players, Rory McIlroy, Luke Donald, Ian Poulter, Lee Westwood and Henrik Stenson.  Throw in guys like Justin Rose, Charl Schwartzel and Jamie Donaldson I can narrow down the 60 players in the field down to around ten.
  • Two important elements come across in the previous six winners.  First is driving distance, five of the six winners were in the top-ten while one (Alvaro Quiros in 2011) led while Rory McIlroy in 2012 was 2nd.  Hitting greens is also very important, last year’s winner Stenson was T-4th and led that category in 2013 just like Lee Westwood in 2009.  In 2011 Alvaro Quiros was T2nd, so you have to hit the ball good and straight from tee to green
  • All of the par-5s are easy, last year Stenson played them in 10 under. The best was 12 under by Alvaro Quiros in 2011 while the worst was Robert Karlsson in 2010 when he played them in 7 under
  • Surprisingly all of the winners have played the par 4s well, Stenson was 4 under last year but the previews year was 14 under. Lee Westwood played them in 13 under in 2009 while the worst was Robert Karlsson at 7 under in 2010.
  • You will have no probably with the weather as each day is sunny and in the mid-80s.  There are zero chance of any rain in the next week, and there won’t be any wind, so players can attack the course.

Who to watch for at the DP World Championship, Dubai

Best Bets:

Justin Rose

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
T2 T10 2 T50

Think it’s his time to shine and I can see him pulling it all together and winning this week.

Victor Dubuisson

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
T2 3 T36

Won in Turkey and I can see him doing it again this week, was runner-up last year in Dubai and 3rd in 2013.

Patrick Reed

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
First time playing in this event

Watch out for him, seems to be getting better each week and the Earth Course should be right up his alley.

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
First time playing in this event

Best of the rest:

Rory McIlroy

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
T2 T5 Win T11 5 3

Yes he has a tight race to Dubai on his hands but again the reason it’s so close is being hurt, not playing to his potential the last four months and not playing in BMW Masters. I just have a feeling that Rory may not do what he is suppose to and has not only the tournament slip away from him, but also the Race to Dubai.

Danny Willett

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
T21 T26 T55 58

I think it’s a tall order to say he can win this week. Yes I can see a top-five and yes I can see him beating Rory for the Race to Dubai honors, but the odds are very much against that happening. Think a top-five finish would be the best for him.

Pablo Larrazabal

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
T16 T26 T36 10

Has never been overpar in his 16 rounds on the Earth Course, he is 33 under in the four years he has played this event. Yes tenth is his best finish but we know he can do better than that.

Henrik Stenson

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
Win Win T7 T24 T23

He has had command of this event for the last two years but can see him loosen the reins, with his injury and such.

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
First time playing in this event

Solid contenders

Matthew Fitzpatrick

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
First time playing in this event

A first timer to this event, I can see him put his stamp on this event down the road by playing well this week.

Rafael Cabrera-Bello

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
T9 T14 T40 T26 T30

Has played well here the last two years.

Shane Lowry

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
5 T39 T8

Had one big party after his Bridgestone win, his game has come around with his finishing T-2nd in the British Masters and 6 in Turkey.

Ian Poulter

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
T21 2 T26 T22 2 T9

Has played a lot of golf the last four weeks, he has had his moments in this event and I think this could be another one.

Long shots that could come through:

Emilliano Grillo

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
First time playing in this event

I can see him play well this week, still has to be on a high from winning the Frys.

Branden Grace

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
T9 T52 6

Played well at the start of the year and has cooled off. He plays well in this event and I can see him having a good week.

Lucas Bjerregaard

2015 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04 ’03
First time playing in this event

Bit of a surprise for him to be in this event considering that just ten weeks ago is was 118th in the Race to Dubai and worried about losing his tour card. But since finishing T-3rd at the Italian Opne he has had five top-ten finishes including runner-up in Hong Kong and T-3rd at the BMW Masters. So this will be a fun week for him.

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