BlogCareerBuilder Preview and Picks

CareerBuilder Challenge

January 21st – 24th, 2016

PGA West/Palmer

La Quinta, Ca.

Par: 72 / Yardage:

Purse: $5.8 million

with $1,044,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Bill Haas

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This week’s field includes:

There are 29 players in the top-100 in the lastest Official World Rankings.

The field includes 10 of the top-50 in the latest Official World Rankings, with nobody from the top-ten. Those in the field consistent of #10 Patrick Reed, #11 Zach Johnson, #20 Matt Kuchar, #23 Kevin Na, #27 Marc Leishman, #36 Phil Mickelson, #41 Anirban Lahiri, #44 Robert Streb, #45 Bill Haas and #48 Billy Horschel.

Last year there was 14 top-50 players in the field.

The field includes 15 of the top 25 on the FedEx point standings for 2016.  Those players are #6 Smylie Kaufman, #7 Kevin Na, #10 Jason Bohn, #12 Peter Malnati, #13 Patrick Reed, #14 Alex Cejka, #15 Kevin Chappell, #17 Zac Blair, #18 William McGirt, #19 Charles Howell III, #20 Si Woo Kim, #23 Jamie Lovemark, #24 Patton Kizzire and #25 Daniel Summerhays

The field includes 14 players in the top 25 on this year’s PGA Tour money list.  Those players are #5 Kevin Na, #6 Smylie Kaufman, #10 Jason Bohn, #11 Peter Malnati, #13 Patrick Reed, #15 Alex Cejka, #16 Kevin Chappell, #17 William McGirt, #18 Zac Blair, #19 Charles Howell III, #20 Patton Kizzire, #24 Brendan Steele and #25.

The field includes 12 past champions: Bill Haas – 2015 & ’10, Patrick Reed – 2014, Brian Gay – 2013, Mark Wilson – 2012, Jhonattan Vegas – 2011, Pat Perez – 2009, D.J. Trahan – 2008, Charley Hoffman – 2007, Chad Campbell – 2006, Justin Leonard – 2005, Phil Mickelson – 2004 & ’02, and Mark Brooks – 1996.

A perfect way for fantasy golfers to check on the past performance of all the players in the CareerBuilder Challenge field is our performance chart listed by average finish.  Another way to check who is the best is through a special formula worked out in Golfstats that gives us the best average performances at the CareerBuilder Challenge  in the last five years or check out our sortable 8-year glance at the CareerBuilder Challenge .

A good cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmakers in England.

Another cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmaker in Las Vegas.

**NOTE**

One thing to look for is our new GOLFstats IQ.  For those that play in fantasy golf it’s a perfect way to help you pick those players in Draft Kings and Victiv games.  You can customize the list of those in the tournaments, to look back a couple or many years of tournament stats and you can go back a couple or ten weeks prior to the tournament.  On top of that, all the stats are fully sortable to help you pick your six players, we even give you their value for the week to help you chose.

That’s GOLFstats IQ, give it a try and tell us what you think of it

24/7 GOLF

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We have the perfect solution for you.  If you own a Iphone or a Ipad we have developed a perfect app called 24/7 GOLF.

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So check it out, just hit this link to get 24/7 GOLF:

Screen Shot 2015-04-23 at 12.01.34 AM

Time to look at our who’s hot and who isn’t:

Who’s Hot in the field for the Humana Challenge

Player Sony Open Hyundai Nedbank Golf DP World BMW Masters Mayakoba RSM Turkish Open WGC-HSBC Sanderson Farms CIMB Classic Hong Kong Shriners Hospitals
Patrick Reed
(215 pts)
DNP 2
(100)
DNP T10
(20)
2
(33.33)
DNP DNP DNP T7
(18.33)
DNP T10
(13.33)
T3
(30)
DNP
Peter Malnati
(117.33 pts)
T79
(0)
T6
(60)
DNP DNP DNP T10
(13.33)
T75
(0)
DNP DNP Win
(44)
DNP DNP T56
(0)
Zac Blair
(108 pts)
3
(90)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T10
(13.33)
T33
(5.67)
DNP DNP DNP T43
(2.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Si Woo Kim
(106.67 pts)
4
(80)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T17
(11)
T18
(10.67)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP T25
(8.33)
Smylie Kaufman
(90 pts)
DNP T15
(35)
DNP DNP DNP T34
(5.33)
T33
(5.67)
DNP DNP T54
(0)
DNP DNP Win
(44)
William McGirt
(87 pts)
T13
(37)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T2
(33.33)
DNP DNP T8
(16.67)
Marc Leishman
(86 pts)
T28
(22)
DNP Win
(44)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T11
(13)
DNP T29
(7)
DNP DNP
Kevin Na
(85.33 pts)
T28
(22)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP 57
(0)
DNP T3
(30)
DNP T2
(33.33)
David Lingmerth
(84 pts)
T13
(37)
T15
(35)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T63
(0)
DNP T72
(0)
DNP T14
(12)
DNP DNP
Alex Cejka
(80 pts)
CUT
(-10)
T21
(29)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
T6
(20)
DNP DNP DNP T17
(11)
DNP T2
(33.33)
Charles Howell III
(76.33 pts)
T13
(37)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T17
(11)
T9
(15)
DNP DNP DNP T10
(13.33)
DNP 70
(0)
Jamie Lovemark
(75.67 pts)
T7
(55)
DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
T9
(15)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP T13
(12.33)
Zach Johnson
(74 pts)
T9
(45)
T21
(29)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T75
(0)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Jason Bohn
(70.33 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T2
(33.33)
DNP DNP DNP T39
(3.67)
DNP DNP T2
(33.33)
Francesco Molinari
(68 pts)
T33
(17)
DNP DNP T4
(40)
T17
(11)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Greg Owen
(65.67 pts)
T5
(70)
DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP DNP T56
(0)
DNP T43
(2.33)
Jason Dufner
(65 pts)
T9
(45)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T40
(3.33)
T9
(15)
DNP DNP DNP T35
(5)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Daniel Summerhays
(62.33 pts)
T13
(37)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T44
(2)
DNP T14
(12)
DNP T16
(11.33)
Harold Varner III
(60.67 pts)
T13
(37)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T5
(23.33)
T68
(0)
DNP DNP T39
(3.67)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Graham Delaet
(57.33 pts)
T7
(55)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T33
(5.67)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Brian Harman
(55.33 pts)
T13
(37)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T40
(3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP DNP T7
(18.33)
DNP T56
(0)
Jerry Kelly
(50.33 pts)
T9
(45)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T34
(5.33)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T68
(0)
DNP DNP
Ryan Palmer
(48.33 pts)
T13
(37)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T16
(11.33)
Hudson Swafford
(48.33 pts)
T9
(45)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T46
(1.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP DNP T24
(8.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Patton Kizzire
(46.67 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T58
(0)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP T4
(26.67)
DNP DNP T2
(33.33)

How Player Rankings are Computed

Who’s Not Hot in the field for the Humana Challenge

Player Sony Open Hyundai Nedbank Golf DP World BMW Masters Mayakoba RSM Turkish Open WGC-HSBC Sanderson Farms CIMB Classic Hong Kong Shriners Hospitals
Jonas Blixt
(-23.33 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Robert Allenby
(-20 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T68
(0)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Brendon Todd
(-20 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
T83
(0)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Miguel Angel Carballo
(-18.33 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP WD
(-1.67)
DNP DNP DNP
Charlie Beljan
(-18.33 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP DNP WD
(-1.67)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Will MacKenzie
(-16.67 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T58
(0)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP T54
(0)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Stuart Appleby
(-16.67 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
T52
(0)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
Carlos Ortiz
(-15.67 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP DNP T47
(1)
DNP DNP
Erik Compton
(-15.33 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T46
(1.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
George McNeill
(-13.33 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)

How Player Rankings are Computed

The Buzz:

Amazing how much this event has climbed in popularity on the PGA Tour.  When this tournament ended after 2011 with no sponsor and many players not interested in playing the event, many thought that this tournament was finished.  But that wasn’t the case, Tim Finchem and the Tour hunkered down and help the tournament work an arrangement with Bill Clinton to get his foundation involved and then got Humana to take over sponsorship.  The format changed from a 90 hole tournament to 72 holes which help coax more players to attend.  Even with Humana leaving as the sponsor, the tour was able to get CareerBuilder step in and take over.

Another thing that happened last year, the tournament announced that long time home the Palmer private along with Nicklaus private didn’t want to be a part of the tournament.  So the tournament is returning to the Pete Dye PGA West TPC Stadium Course, which held the event 29 years ago.  The course was stunning on television but the players hated it.  In the age of persimmon drivers and balata balls the players thought the course was too hard and “gimmicky” with it’s island green, 20-foot-deep bunkers, a green completely surrounded by a nine foot moat style bunker.  Hitting drives was demanding because if the fairways were missed, the chances were good of the ball being in a bush or behind a tree.  The course was the most penal course in the Palm Springs area and the country, another thing the players hated was how long it took to play.  Playing alongside of amateurs it took over six hours to get around/

The course was demonized by the players as being too hard and it was.  Over the course of the last 20 years, all the courses that have held the CareerBuilders are always ranked on the bottom of the list and the courses are know as places to make lot’s of eagles and birdies.  But that wasn’t the case with PGA West in 1987, the field played it once in the first 72 holes and then the final round was played on it.  So for the week it played to a 74.157 average, over two shots over par for the field.  It ranked as the 7th hardest course that year, the players were so loud in their displeasure that just a couple of days after Corey Pavin won the TPC Stadium Course was dropped by the PGA Tour.

Of the 18 holes, 16 of them played over par.  The only ones under was the par 5, 8th and the par 4, 12th. Hard to believe that three of the four par 5s were over par and even today the 11th hole played to a 5.308 average.  In the 29 years since only ten par 5s have played harder with the 14th at Pebble Beach playing harder 5 times.

So the question will be if players today find the course still over the top.  Probably not because the course has softened over the three decades.  The bushes and small trees that use to line the fairways have been removed as the fairways are more generious, the moat bunker at 12 is gone and with golf equipment better and the course gaining only 190 yards, it will still look speculator on TV but be more of a challenge for players.

I told you that two of the three courses have been changed, the Nicklaus tournament course, which is next store to the Stadium course will be used.  The course will be easy, not as easy as the Nicklaus private which it replaces, last year it was the 51st hardest course (out of 52) playing 2.7 strokes under par.

Course information:

A unique event as three courses are used.

  • PGA West TPC Stadium Course is the home and hold one round during the first three days and host Sundays action:
  • 7,300 yards     Par 36-36–72
  • Course has a 76.1 rating and slope rating of 150 from the championship tees making it one of the hardest courses in the country.
  • The course was designed by Pete Dye and opened in 1986.  Dye was hired by the Landmark developing company, which were big in the 80s with over a dozen courses around the country.  Landmark owners Ernie Vossler and Joe Walser gave Dye the task to build them the toughest damn course in the World.
  • Along with the 1987 CareerBuilder Challenge, the Skins Game was held on the course between 1986 and 1991.  PGA Tour qualifying school was held six times, the last being 2008 but the hint that the course was becoming more playable was when the Champions Tour held the Liberty Mutual Legends of Golf on the course in 1995 and ’96.  The seniors took a liking to the course, which had been softened for that event.
  • The average green size is 6,500 square feet and the course has close to hundred bunkers around it.  Water comes into play on nine of the holes and the CareerBuilder course record is 67 which Corey Pavin shot in the final round in 1987.

Other courses used in the rota:

  • La Quinta C.C.
  • La Quinta, Calif.
  • 7,060 yards     Par 36-36–72
  • Course has a 74.2 rating and slope rating of 136 from the championship tees
  • Course is private and not open to the public
  • Course was designed by Billy Bell and Lawrence Hughes and was opened in 1959.  In 1999, Robert Muir Graves and Damian Pascuzzo came in, rebuilt all the greens, bunkers, and tees.  He has also taken all the water hazards on the course and made them all come into play. The flagpole at the first tee is the official flagpole from the 1960 Winter Olympics at Squaw Valley. It was given to La Quinta Country Club by the Novotny family in memory of Frank Capra.
  • The average green size at La Quinta is 5,500 square feet, and the course has 101 bunkers.  There are five water hazards on the course with eight holes being effected.  The course was first used as a Humana course in 1964 and has been a part of 40 of the 52 Humana’s and historically been the hardest of the courses used.  It was the host course in 1970, 1977,1980, and 1983.

Scoring average of the La Quinta course compared to other courses that hold events on the PGA Tour:

  • 2015 – 70.083 average, 6th easiest of 52 courses used for year
  • 2014 – 69.768 average, 4th easiest of 48 courses used for year
  • 2013 – 69.487 average, 3rd easiest of 43 courses used for year
  • 2012 – 70.678 average, 41st hardest of 49 courses used for year
  • 2011 – 70.024 average, 43rd hardest of 51 courses used for year
  • 2010 – 69.969 average, 47th hardest of 52 courses used for year

PGA West Nicklaus Tournament Course

  • La Quinta, Calif.
  • 7,204 yards     Par 36-36–72
  • Course has a 75.3 rating and slope rating of 143 from the championship tees
  • Course is open to the public
  • The course is a tamer version of it’s neighbor the Stadium course.  Look for lot’s of birdies to be made as the fairways are generous and the greens should be easy to hit.  Course held final PGA Tour qualifying tournament on the course in 1988, ’90. ’93, 2000, ’02, ’04, ’06, ’08, ’12 and ’13 so many of the players in the field will have played it.

COURSE KEYS

We won’t have course keys this week since this course doesn’t have any stats.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Humana Challenge

Key stat for the winner:

Have to say that with the addition of PGA West TPC Stadium Course it now gives the tournament a bit more of a challenge.  You won’t find any 59s shot on this course, be surprised if anyone shots 65.  But two of the four rounds are played on courses that need a player to make a lot of birdies so those that do when in stats related to shooting under par will do well this week.

Most important stat is how many birdies are allowed on the three courses.  Last year players teed it up on two of the four rounds at PGA West/Palmer and 1,202 birdies, and 54 eagles were made.  That is quite a bit and if you add up the other two courses that were used for a total of 2,658 birdies and 126 eagles, most of any event on tour.  Going a step further, of the winners of the last five years, they have played 38.9% of their holes under par (149 birdies, 5 eagles over 396 holes) which means that the winners birdied almost 4 holes for every 10 played at the Humana.  So a key stat, to look at for this week, is Par Breakers on tour.

Of the top-ten on that list, nobody in the top-ten is in the CareerBuilder Challenge field.  The highest rank players at the CareerBuilder is #T11 D.J. Trahan, #15 Jason Bohn and #16 Patrick Reed.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

  • This week the pros will play over three courses in four days, quite a learning scale with very little time to prepare and learn two new courses.  Making it even harder for those coming from Hawaii unless they took red-eyes on Sunday Night or missed the cut; they won’t get to start practicing until Tuesday.  Still it’s better than the days when this event was played over five days.
  • Another problem for the pros, the first three days they play with amateurs.  So patient is needed to tolerate those five plus hour rounds.  So look for experience players to do well, those with a long track record at the CareerBuilder should be your favorites. Since 1984, the champion has averaged winning in his 7th start. Last year Bill Haas won on his 11 try while the year before Patrick Reed won in only his second start.  In 2013, Brian Gay won on his 12th CareerBuilder start while 2012 winner Mark Wilson was making his fourth start when he won.  Experience is a must in this event.  Yes Jhonathan Vegas won the first time around in 2011 and Charley Hoffman in 2007 was the first player to make his Hope debut a victory since Donnie Hammond did it in 1986.  Still consider Hoffman, Vegas, and Reed are exceptions to the rule.
  • As we said before, the winner will have to make lots of birdies and eagles to win. When it was played over 90 holes, Phil Mickelson made 37 birdies in 2004 while Justin Leonard made 33 in 2005.   D.J. Trahan made 35 in 2008 along with Pat Perez in 2009,  Bill Haas made 34 in 2010 and Jhonathan Vegas made 34 in 2011.  When the event changed to 72 holes in 2012, Mark Wilson made 24 birdies while Brian Gay made 27 in 2013  In 2014Patrick Reed went crazy with 30 birdies, along with two eagles while last year Bill Haas made one eagle and 22 birdies. So to win they will have to birdie at least 3 out of every ten holes played.
  • Look at someone who destroys the par 5s.  The last 15 winners have averaged 15 under on them with Phil Mickelson playing them in 14 under in 2002.  Mike Weir played them in 15 under in 2003 and Phil Mickelson played them in 12 under in 2004.  Justin Leonard played them in 10 under in 2005, Chad Campbell played them in 18 under in 2006, Charley Hoffman played them in 15 under in 2007 while D.J. Trahan was 13 under on them with Pat Perez setting the record for playing them in 19 under in 2009.  Bill Haas played them in 16 under in 2010 while Jhonathan Vegas was 11 under the last year it was held at 90 holes.  In 2012, Mark Wilson was 15 under while Brian Gay was 10 under in 2013.  Last year Patrick Reed was 14 under on them.
  • Now over the course of the last two months the Southern California area has been hit with a lot of storms and rain.  There was a lot talked about that happening this year but that won’t be the case as the weather will be perfect for the whole week. Will this create low scores, probably not because they are playing a very hard course. But with the lack of wind there couldn’t be better scoring conditions.
  • One last thing, look for players that have won on tough courses.  So with Phil Mickelson making his first start could he be a favorite?  He hasn’t won since the British Open.  Even though he has won the CareerBuilder twice, his last top-ten in this event was a T-5th in 2006.  He is no longer with swing coach Butch Harmon and since the Presidents Cup under the eye of his new coach Andrew Getson has made a major swing overhaul which will be shown for the first time in public this week with the hope of finding his lost game.  He may surprise a lot of us, yes you never know what Phil will do next.

Who to watch for at the Humana Challenge

Best Bets:

Patrick Reed

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
T24 Win CUT

Guy has played great the last two months, I also think that the Stadium Course will be perfect for him and give him an added advantage. This could be a very easy pick, remember he makes lots of birdies.

Matt Kuchar

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
T2 T16 T22 T7 T2 T25 CUT T27

One of those players that adding the Stadium Course is good for him, he should do well on it.

Webb Simpson

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
T7 T23 CUT T13 T33 T5

Coming off a good start in Hawaii, I think the addition of the Stadium Course will help him, he is 38 under in his last 8 rounds at this event.

Best of the rest:

Zach Johnson

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
CUT T3 T23 T8 T20

Another player that probably loves the addition of the Stadium Course, Johnson has a good record in this event

Bill Haas

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
Win T6 CUT T64 T2 Win T25 T16 T27 T19 T34

Can’t discard him, he plays well on tough courses so this could continue a fine run in the Palm Springs area.

Charley Hoffman

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
T2 T9 T10 CUT CUT CUT T19 T8 Win

He likes playing in the desert, is 63 under in just his last 12 rounds, only question will be if he can play well on the new courses.

Jason Dufner

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
CUT T12 T33 T18 T34 T53

Played well at the Sony, a guy that we are looking to play well in 2016.

Solid contenders

Phil Mickelson

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
T24 T37 T49 T45 T5 T12 Win

Have to think that he has worked hard the last couple of weeks. Has a new teacher, new approach and new swing.

Ryan Palmer

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
T10 2 T6 CUT 4 T42 T48 CUT T10 CUT CUT

Another with a good record in this event, he can do well at the Stadium Course.

Kevin Na

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
T48 T48 CUT T30 T5 T8 CUT T66 73 WD T47

Guy plays well and finds a way into contention.

Marc Leishman

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
First time playing in this event

Playing for the first time, think he can do well in the desert.

Long shots that could come through:

Zac Blair

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
CUT

Played well last week, think he will do well this week in the desert.

Brendon Todd

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
CUT T6 T26

Guy won the 2011 Q-School on the Nicklaus course, he could be a big surprise this week.

Si Woo Kim

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
First time playing in this event

Guy played great in Hawaii, he could continue the good play to this week.

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