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BlogPebble Beach Preview and Picks

AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am

February 11th – 14th, 2016

Pebble Beach G.L.

Pebble Beach, Ca.

Par: 72 / Yardage:

Purse: $7 million

with $1,260,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Brandt Snedeker

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This week’s field includes:

The field includes 30 of the top 100 and 17 of the top 50 in the latest Official World Rankings, with six players #1 Jordan Spieth, #3 Jason Day, #6 Bubba Watson, #7 Justin Rose, #8 Dustin Johnson and #9 Patrick Reed from the top-ten. The other top 50 players are  #14 Brandt Snedeker, #19 Brooks Koepka, #21 Shane Lowry, #22 J.B. Holmes, #23 Kevin Na, #25 Jimmy Walker, #29 Phil Mickelson, #31 Russell Knox, #36 Danny Lee, #38 David Lingmerth and #45 Bill Haas

Last year there were 14 top-50 players in the field.

The field includes 14 of the top 25 on the FedEx point standings for 2016.  Those players are #2 Brandt Snedeker, #3 Russell Knox, #4 Kevin Na, #9 Jason Dufner, #12 Jason Bohn, #13 Jordan Spieth, #15 David Lingmerth, #16 Peter Malnati, #17 Patrick Reed, #19 Si Woo Kim, #20 K.J. Choi, #21 Alex Cejka, #22 Kevin Streelman and #24 William McGirt.

The field includes 14 players in the top 25 on this year’s PGA Tour money list.  Those players are #2 Brandt Snedeker, #3 Russell Knox, #4 Kevin Na, #10 Jason Dufner, #11 Jordan Spieth, #13 Jason Bohn, #14 Peter Malnati, #16 Patrick Reed, #17 David Lingmerth, #19 K.J. Choi, #21 Alex Cejka, #23 Si Woo Kim, #24 William McGirt and #22 Kevin Streelman.

The field includes 7 past champions: Brandt Snedeker (2015 & ’13), Jimmy Walker (2014), Phil Mickelson (2012, ’07, ’05 & 1998), D.A. Points (2011), Dustin Johnson (2010 & ’09), Vijay Singh (2004) and Davis Love III (2003 & ’01).

A perfect way for fantasy golfers to check on the past performance of all the players in the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-am field is our performance chart listed by average finish.  Another way to check who is the best is through a special formula worked out in Golfstats that gives us the best average performances at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-am in the last five years or check out our sortable 8-year glance at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-am.

A good cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmakers in England.

Another cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmaker in Las Vegas.

**NOTE**

One thing to look for is our new GOLFstats IQ.  For those that play in fantasy golf it’s a perfect way to help you pick those players in Draft Kings and Victiv games.  You can customize the list of those in the tournaments, to look back a couple or many years of tournament stats and you can go back a couple or ten weeks prior to the tournament.  On top of that, all the stats are fully sortable to help you pick your six players, we even give you their value for the week to help you chose.

That’s GOLFstats IQ, give it a try and tell us what you think of it

24/7 GOLF

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We have the perfect solution for you.  If you own a Iphone or a Ipad we have developed a perfect app called 24/7 GOLF.

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Time to look at our who’s hot and who isn’t:

Who’s Hot in the field for the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am

Player Phoenix Open Dubai Desert CareerBuilder Farmers Insurance Qatar Masters Abu Dhabi Sony Open Joburg Open Hyundai T.of Champions South African
Brandt Snedeker
(275.67 pts)
T33
(17)
DNP DNP Win
(132)
DNP DNP 2
(66.67)
DNP T3
(60)
DNP
Jordan Spieth
(158 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T5
(70)
DNP DNP Win
(88)
DNP
Jason Dufner
(152 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP Win
(132)
DNP DNP DNP T9
(30)
DNP DNP DNP
David Lingmerth
(138 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP 2
(100)
DNP DNP DNP T13
(24.67)
DNP T15
(23.33)
DNP
J.B. Holmes
(137.33 pts)
T6
(60)
DNP DNP T6
(60)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T24
(17.33)
DNP
K.J. Choi
(133.67 pts)
T17
(33)
DNP DNP 2
(100)
DNP DNP T50
(0.67)
DNP DNP DNP
Jimmy Walker
(131.33 pts)
DNP DNP DNP T4
(80)
DNP DNP T13
(24.67)
DNP T10
(26.67)
DNP
Kevin Na
(130.67 pts)
T24
(26)
DNP T3
(90)
DNP DNP DNP T28
(14.67)
DNP DNP DNP
Si Woo Kim
(130.33 pts)
T67
(0)
DNP T9
(45)
T18
(32)
DNP DNP 4
(53.33)
DNP DNP DNP
Kevin Streelman
(119 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP T11
(39)
3
(90)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Phil Mickelson
(119 pts)
T11
(39)
DNP T3
(90)
CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Danny Lee
(114.67 pts)
4
(80)
DNP DNP T58
(0)
DNP DNP T33
(11.33)
DNP T15
(23.33)
DNP
Shane Lowry
(97 pts)
T6
(60)
DNP DNP T13
(37)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Andrew Loupe
(91 pts)
DNP DNP T3
(90)
T49
(1)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Colt Knost
(86 pts)
T24
(26)
DNP T24
(26)
T16
(34)
DNP DNP T75
(0)
DNP DNP DNP
Ryan Palmer
(83.67 pts)
T24
(26)
DNP T17
(33)
DNP DNP DNP T13
(24.67)
DNP DNP DNP
Freddie Jacobson
(80 pts)
DNP DNP 69
(0)
T4
(80)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Bryce Molder
(72 pts)
T6
(60)
DNP T28
(22)
CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Brooks Koepka
(69 pts)
T41
(9)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T3
(60)
DNP
Jonas Blixt
(65.33 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP T28
(22)
T6
(60)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP
Bubba Watson
(62.67 pts)
T14
(36)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T10
(26.67)
DNP
Patrick Reed
(61.67 pts)
DNP DNP T56
(0)
WD
(-5)
DNP DNP DNP DNP 2
(66.67)
DNP
Bud Cauley
(61 pts)
DNP DNP T14
(36)
T25
(25)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
James Hahn
(60.33 pts)
T17
(33)
DNP DNP T58
(0)
DNP DNP T28
(14.67)
DNP T31
(12.67)
DNP
Dustin Johnson
(58.67 pts)
DNP DNP DNP T18
(32)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T10
(26.67)
DNP

How Player Rankings are Computed

Who’s Not Hot in the field for the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am

Player Phoenix Open Dubai Desert CareerBuilder Farmers Insurance Qatar Masters Abu Dhabi Sony Open Joburg Open Hyundai T.of Champions South African
Charlie Beljan
(-36.67 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP
Tyler Aldridge
(-36.67 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP
Spencer Levin
(-30 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP T56
(0)
DNP DNP DNP
Andres Gonzales
(-30 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Pat Perez
(-30 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP T81
(0)
DNP DNP DNP
Chad Collins
(-26.67 pts)
CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP
Sam Saunders
(-26.67 pts)
DNP DNP CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP
Miguel Angel Carballo
(-26.67 pts)
DNP DNP CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP
D.H. Lee
(-26.67 pts)
DNP DNP CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP
Sung Kang
(-26.67 pts)
DNP DNP CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP

How Player Rankings are Computed

The Buzz:

The PGA Tour season is officially a quarter of the way over, and with 12 players winning 12 events, we are seeing a lot of parody.  Funny the same thing happened last year, it took 20 events before Jimmy Walker became a multiple winner at the Valero Texas Open.  Now the good folks at Ponte Vedra smile with that word parody, but for this year things are different.  Last year there was a lot of non-marquee winners from January on, while this year we have seen some great winners between Jordan Spieth, Jason Dufner, Brandt Snedeker and Hideki Matsuyama.  This week we are going to have a great taste of marquee names as the field at the AT&T Pebble Beach will have six of the top-ten world rank players.  We know it will get better next month at Honda and Doral, but for a west coast event a good field.

Things you need to know about the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am

This and the CareerBuilder Challenge are the only events played on three different courses. Each player and team will play one round at Pebble Beach (which is the host course), Spyglass Hill and Monterey Peninsula C.C. After Saturday the cut are made and the final round is played at Pebble Beach.  The AT&T is really two tournaments in one.  The field is paired with an amateur partner and played the first three rounds together.  After 54 holes a cut is made, approximately 25 low teams of the best amateurs/pros will make it to the final day at Pebble Beach.

This is the last of the big time pro-celebrity events on the PGA Tour.  The CareerBuilder, which was the Bob Hope use to have a good field of celebrities, but now the only one left is this event.  The good news is that crowd favorite Bill Murray is back, he has been the highlight of the tournament for over two decades, the best was when he won the pro-am in 2011.   Some of the celebrities playing are Mark Wahlberg, Chris O’Donnell, Aaron Rodgers, Andy Garcia, Craig T. Nelson, Wayne Gretzky, Huey Lewis, Carson Daly, Ray Romano, and Kenny G.

For some, the AT&T Pebble Beach pro-am is the greatest.  Played at one of the most speculator places in all the world, on three of the greatest courses in the world.  On top of that the Monterey area offers a lot to do with great places to go like the Monterey aquarium, some great restaurants and bars plus you can’t beat a walk around the village of Carmel after the tournament is over.

For others, playing with amateurs in foursomes with rounds sometimes going six hours this isn’t their cup of tea.  Still it’s a staple on the PGA Tour.

Course information:

  • Pebble Beach Golf Links
  • Pebble Beach, Calif.
  • 6,816 yards     Par 36-36–72

Course has a 74.4 rating and slope rating of 142 from the championship tees Pebble Beach Golf Links is resort and open to the public.

In 2014 the Pebble Beach was the 7th hardest course on the PGA Tour playing to a 73.385 average.   But last year with perfect weather and no wind, Pebble was the 45th hardest course with a 70.241 average so three shots easier than the year before.

Course designed by Jack Neville and Douglas Grant in 1919,  Revised in 1928 by Henry Chandler Egan.  Between then and 1997 there were little minor changes done to the course.  But in 1998 the biggest changed happened when the par-three 5th hole was rebuilt.  The redesign was done by Jack Nicklaus and the hole was relocated about 100 yards away, along a 50-foot cliff over the Pacific.  At the cost of $3 million, the new hole could be one of the most expensive holes that hold a PGA Tour event.  It’s funny to compare the cost.  $3 million for one hole in 1999, the total cost to build the course in 1919 and that included the money spent on at the time was the first automatic sprinkling system in golf was a mere $66,000.

The course is situated on the Monterey Peninsula, its 120 miles south of San Francisco, Pebble Beach is considered the most spectacular golf course in all the world.

Despite it official name, the course is not a true links course because it is set on craggy cliffs above Carmel Bay.  Eight of the holes skirt the coastline and it’s these holes that distinguish Pebble Beach.

The land was owned by Samuel Morse who was the nephew of the inventor of the telegraph and Morse code.  Morse had an eye for the natural beauty of the Monterey Peninsula and bought 7,000 acres of the Peninsula, including seven miles of Pacific oceanfront for $1.3 million in 1915.  Morse then formed the Del Monte Properties company and had a vision of a resort with a golf course on prime acreage that ran along the bluffs above Carmel Bay.  Instead of selling the ocean front property for homesites, Morse built his golf course.  One of his real estate agents was Jack Neville who won the California Amateur Championship and although Neville had never built a course before, Morse decided to give him a chance to handle the design.  Neville asked another California Amateur Champion, Douglas Grant, to help him on the project and they spent a month routing the 18 holes.

In 1918 the course was opened for play, but in the inaugural competition the course was deemed to be unplayable for the average golfer and was closed for revision.  Neville and Grant softened it up and in 1919 it was again open for play.

Over the course of the next ten years the course was modified by Neville and Grant, and in 1928 H. Chandler Egan, Robert Hunter and Roger Lapham strengthened the course for the 1929 U.S. Amateur.  Since then the course has remained the same, except for the redesign of the fifth hole, which is surely an endorsement of the sound design of Neville and Grant.

Nine holes at Pebble are set along the rocky shores of Carmel Bay.  They are the 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th, 17th, and 18th.  The 18th hole is considered by many as the best finishing hole in golf.  It was originally a par 4 of 379 yards until Egan changed it into a par 5 of 550 yards.

Pebble Beach has held many tournaments, the U.S. Open (1972, ’82, ’92, 2000 and in 2010), the PGA Championship (1977),  four U.S. Amateurs (1929, ’47, ’61 & ’99), the 1989 Nabisco Championship and is the host course for the annual AT&T Pebble Beach pro-am which at one time was the Bing Crosby.

The average green size at Pebble is 3,580 square feet that make the greens the smallest that are used on the PGA Tour.  The course has 92 bunkers, and water comes in play on nine holes along the Pacific.

Other courses used in the rota:

  • Spyglass Hill Golf Course
  • Pebble Beach, Calif.
  • 6,953 yards     Par 36-36–72

Course has a 75.3 rating and slope rating of 148 from the championship tees.  The course is resort and open to the public.

In 2014 the Spyglass Hill was the 11th hardest course on the PGA Tour playing to a 72.755 average.  For the first time since 2010, Spyglass played under par in 2015 to a scoring average of 71.199, the 33rd hardest course on tour. Again easier because of the great weather.

The course was designed by Robert Trent Jones and opened in 1966.  The course was the built thanks to Samuel Morse who had originally thought of building it as part of the Lodge at Pebble Beach.  The course was to be called Pebble Beach Pines Golf Club but Morse changed it to Spyglass Hill.  That was partly because of his friend Robert Louis Stevenson who got his inspiration for his book Treasure Island while visiting the area in which Spyglass was built.

Spyglass is a mix of several different courses.  The first five holes go down through sand dunes and offer magnificent views of the Pacific.  The next couple of holes play back into the pines, still offering ocean views.  The last nine you wouldn’t even know that the ocean is a mile away, the holes play through Monterey pines.  Spyglass is a totally different course than Pebble.  While the greens at Pebble are small, those at Spyglass are large and undulating.  Weather is a big part of Pebble, while it can be blowing up a storm there, Spyglass that is just a couple miles away could be calm.  When Spyglass first opened up it annually would drive the pros that played in the Crosby crazy and would be among the hardest courses on Tour.  It’s still one of the toughest courses on tour, but the course has softened with time, and now there is nothing but praise about the course.

  • Monterey Peninsula C.C. Shore Course
  • Pebble Beach, Calif.
  • 6,867 yards     Par 34-37–71

Course has a 73.3 rating and slope rating of 133 from the championship tees.  The course is private.

In 2014 the Shore Course was the 22nd hardest course on the PGA Tour playing to a 71.252 average.  But in 2015, again in perfect weather the course played to a 68.936 scoring average as only two other courses in 2015 played easier.

Monterey Peninsula Country Club was founded on January 19, 1925. Samuel Finley Brown Morse, president and general manager of the Del Monte Properties Company.  The club has two clubs; the Dunes Course was originally designed by Charles B. MacDonald and Seth Raynor in 1925. The Dunes Course was redesigned and rebuilt in 1998 by Rees Jones and was the site of the Bing Crosby Pro-am for 18 consecutive years beginning in 1947, and then shifted to the Shore Course in 1965 and 1966. In 1967, the tournament was moved to Spyglass Hill Golf Course. The Crosby later returned to MPCC in 1977.

The Shore Course, site of this year’s AT&T was originally designed by Robert Baldock and Jack Neville. Construction began in 1960, and the course was opened for play in 1961. Reconstruction of the Shore Course began in February 2003, and the new course was opened in June 2004. Golf course architect Mike Strantz created a links-type golf course on the Club’s ocean-side property. For the AT&T, the course will play at a par 71 and at 6,867.

Two things will come into play this week at the Shore course; one is how it won’t be protected from the elements of wind off the ocean.  The course it replaced, Poppy Hills was very well protected with big pines but that won’t be the case here, so if you get unlucky and are paired on this course on a poor day it could put you out of the tournament.  The second tough element will be the greens, they average 7,000 and Mike Strantz made them tough and it will take much local knowledge to be able to read them.  Most of the pros in the field are making sure to play the Shore Course and they all are saying the same thing; the greens will be tough this week.

One thing that will make all three courses a bit tougher is the weather, the Pebble Beach area has had 14 inches of rain since the start of the year so the rough will be higher and thicker this year.  Also the courses won’t have the same run as they had last year, yes the weather has been ok the last week but not enough to make it run dry and the ball running like last year.

Sorry but only two rounds are played at Pebble Beach so we won’t have course keys this week.  It will return next week.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am:

Key stat for the winner:

The AT&T Pebble Beach brings on some special problems; it takes a lot of patience to endure this week with amateur partners.  Another problem is the luck of the draw, someone could be playing at Spyglass that is tree lined on the last 12 holes and may not get the brute of a heavy wind that some player’s encounter at Pebble Beach and Monterey Peninsula.  For some that play in the late afternoon the conditions of the greens get dicey, especially since Poa Annua greens get bumpy and hard to predict.  So it takes a special breed of player to endure this.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

  • Unimportant stat:  With the exception of Brett Ogle in 1993 and Dustin Johnson in 2009 those that have won at Pebble were veteran players.  The point here, don’t look for any inexperienced players winning here, in it’s history going back to 1950 only one pro has won on his first visit to Pebble and that was Ogle.
  • Now this doesn’t rule out the fact that a rookie or a person with very little experience could win. Look at D.A. Points in 2011, he missed three out of four cuts before winning.  Some could call this a flunk, I feel that having comedian Bill Murray as his partner helped him and without Murray, Points probably would have never won.  Also look at Dustin Johnson who won at age 24 & 25. In 2009 Johnson was a surprise winner because he won because of weather reducing the event to 54 holes, it’s always easy to win a tournament that you lead after 54 holes.
  • The best-kept secret of this event between 1981 and 2005 none of the first round leaders went on to win.  But, Phil Mickelson started a trend in 2005 that 5 of the last 10 winners, Mickelson twice, Johnson twice, and Points in 2011 were in the lead after the first day.  Last year Brandt Snedeker led after the first and second rounds, then was T-2nd in the third round.  So the question, could this trend continue, realistically no because of the nature of using three courses.  But again anything is possible in golf.
  • One streak that will stay intact is that in the previous 56 years of the CareerBuilder Classic, nobody has ever won both the AT&T and the Humana in the same year.  So Jason Dufner will try to break the streak, in five previous starts he has only made two cuts and his best finish is T-55th, so look for the streak to continue.
  • Putting is always a key at the AT&T especially since the tricky poa annua greens tend to get very bumpy in the afternoon.  Those that are able to deal with it will be ahead of the game mentally.
  • Look for someone that either hits lots of greens or putts very well to win.  He also has to play very well over the weekend that seems to be the key with the rest of the winners.  Pro’s play Pebble twice, which has the smallest greens on the PGA Tour.  Because of that and the greens at Pebble don’t have much undulation, putting becomes important in winning.  In making putts between 4 and 8 feet it has ranked the easiest course on tour 3 of the last seven years, last year it ranked 10th.  In putts inside 10 feet, Pebble was 15th last year, but first in 2014.  In the last six years last year was the highest as the previous five years it was in the top-nine four of the five years. In putts inside of 25 feet it slipped last year to 22nd after being first in 2014 and 3rd in 2013.
  • Weather is always a factor in the AT&T.  Last year there was good conditions and with all the dry conditions in the months before, the courses played easy.  This year January was a rainy month so conditions will be tougher.  The good news is picture perfect weather during the tournament with very little wind. 

Lastly and very important, to win you have to make sure that you play well at Spyglass Hill.  In a way, that is the hardest of the courses and a good round there gives you a big advantage.  A perfect example was in 2005 with Phil Mickelson, he opened up with a 62 at Spyglass, shattering it’s scoring record and could build upon that great round.

Now Spyglass is not the only secert, but also playing well on Monterey Peninsula is important.  All three of these courses usually play to a total field average of par, since 2005 Spyglass has been over par 8 of the 10 years.

What we did in the chart below was take the field average for that course and subtracted the winners score to figure out how many shots are picked up on the field and come up with a total shots gained on the field for these two rounds.  The findings are remarkable across the board for the ten winners:

Winner                  Shots won by           Spyglass*            Monterey Peninsula*    Gain on Field

2015-Brandt Snedeker             3        67 (71.199) +4.199       64 (68.936) +4.936          8.5 shots

2014-Jimmy Walker                  1        69 (72.755) +3.755       67 (71.252) +4.252          8.0 shots

2013-Brandt Snedeker             2        68 (72.641) +4.641        66 (70.244) +4.244         8.9 shots

2012-Phil Mickelson                2         70 (72.581) +2.581       65 (69.883) +4.883          7.5 shots

2011-D.A. Points                      2        70 (72.426) +2.426       63 (69.840) +6.840          9.3 shots

2010-Dustin Johnson              1         64 (71.603) +7.603       64 (68.948) +4.948         12.5 shots

Winner                                                   Spyglass*                     Poppy Hills*

2009-Dustin Johnson              4          69 (72.644) +3.644       67 (71.928) +4.928         8.6 shots

2008-Steve Lowery     won in playoff  69 (73.206) +4.206      70 (72.828) +2.828         7.0 shots

2007-Phil Mickelson              5             70 (72.855) +2.855     65 (72.089) +7.089         9.9 shots

2006-Arron Oberholser         5              68 (72.006) +4.006     65 (72.302) +7.302       11.3 shots

2005-Phil Mickelson             4               62 (72.134) +10.134   67 (71.915) +4.915      15.5 shots

*Field average on that course in parentheses, then shots gain on field for that course

The Bottom Line:

So what will be the important stats for this year?  Look for the player that hits lot’s of greens and are able to make those tricky putts inside of ten feel

Who to watch for at the AT&T Pebble Beach National Pro-Am

Best Bets:

Jimmy Walker

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
T21 Win T3 T9 T9 CUT T55 CUT

It’s just his time to win, he has shown improvement in his game over the last month and could of won at Torrey Pines, think if the weather is good that win will come this week.

Jordan Spieth

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
T7 T4 T22

In looking at his stats for the year he is 1sst in strokes gained tee-to-green, strokes gained putting, birdie average and second in scrambling. On top of that, he has a great record at Pebble. He has had a week off after going around the world to Abu Dhabi and Singapore, so the big question will be if he is fresh and ready to go. He is proving to be the best in golf and finding ways of winning, so we will see if that can happen this week.

Jason Day

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
T4 T64 6 T46 T14 6

Didn’t play well at Torrey but look for that to change this week, he is good in hitting greens and putting, so look for him to contend this week.

Best of the rest:

Brandt Snedeker

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
Win CUT Win CUT T21 CUT T58 T36

Think he could be the hottest player right now, yes he finished T-33rd in Phoenix, but had a poor third round 74. Is playing well and he doesn’t well on this courses so he will be ready to make it three Pebble wins in four years.

Phil Mickelson

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
T19 T60 Win T9 T8 T55 CUT Win T38 Win 3

Has shown that his new swing is ready for prime time and with perfect weather this week, look for Phil to contend this week.

Dustin Johnson

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
T4 T2 CUT T5 T55 Win Win T7

Has been inconsistent this year with one poor round holding him back. But with perfect weather this week and courses that he can overpower, he could shine this week and do well.

J.B. Holmes

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
T10 T61 T50 CUT T13 T2 T55 T61 T16

Watch him this week, has finished T-6th in his last two starts and was T-10th last year.

Solid contenders

Shane Lowry

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
T21

Could be a great pick for this week, finished T-13th at Torrey and T-6th in Phoenix so he could improve on that this week.

Patrick Reed

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
T29 T13 T7

Good event for him, didn’t do well at Torrey Pines but hopefully a week off has helped him get back into the groove.

Kevin Na

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
CUT T4 T22 T5 CUT T56 CUT T43 T69

Played well in this event in 2014 and 2012, could be a good sign for him this week.

Pat Perez

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
T4 T7 T50 T58 CUT T35 T39 T24 T57 T14 CUT

Seems to play well in this event and you have to think that one day he will get lucky and win.

Long shots that could come through:

William McGirt

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
T21 CUT T16 CUT T31

Has had a solid year and has played good in this event.

Freddie Jacobson

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
CUT T7 CUT T14 T38

Finished T-4th at Torrey and has played well at Pebble finishing T-7th in 2013.

Bryce Molder

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
T34 T10 T12 T69 T6 T10 CUT CUT CUT

Was T-6th in Phoenix and has three top-tens at Pebble including a T-6th in 2011.

Will they be happy at Pebble this week?:

Bubba Watson

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
T44 CUT

This guy should win a lot more but examples of why he doesn’t is what happened last week in Phoenix. He just wasn’t happy and basically talked himself out of playing well. Could the same happen this week, he has only played this event twice and both times didn’t do well, finishing T-44th in 2007 and missing the cut in 2006. So you never know, he could pull the same crap and complain about some aspect of this week and have no shot of winning.

Justin Rose

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
First time playing in this event

Seems to have problems in the early part of the year, don’t think he will get it together this week either. Hard to believe that he has never played in this event.

Comments

  1. Who do you like on DK that is below 7k in salary !?

  2. Randy, sorry to say that this week’s event is a real dog in Draft Kings. The 7,000 and under category is probably the worst of the year. Expect to see a lot of folks on top with at least one person missing the cut. But to answer your question, there are no good picks at 7,000 and under. They all have flaws, example Pat Perez at 7,000 he has a good record at Pebble but in his 8 events for 2016 only made two cuts and both finishes were high. So it’s hard, I like Patrick Reed and Jordan Spieth, but it’s doesn’t leave much since have to pick four guys at around 7,000 each. I took Kevin Streelman, Andrew Loupe, Vijay and Marc Turnesa. Racking my mind in trying to do other combinations, then I lose either Patrick Reed or Spieth. Wish I had better news for you.

  3. Sal, how have you fared this year on Draft Kings?

  4. I am a small time player, just for fun. Usually play one or two of their three dollar games, on big events go up to the $27 game.
    The Draft Kings game is harder than people think, in the nine months I have played it I am $107 in the red. The biggest prize I have won is $240 and I have never been in the top-ten.
    To be honest, to do Draft Kings is hard because you can only pick one really good guy. If you try to get a couple, you are left with no money to acquire others. The first secret is you need to pick guys that make lot’s of birdies and eagles and you have to pick guys that make the cut. I have picked the winners the last two weeks, but be burdened with two guys missing the cut which is the kiss of death for you.
    The good news is that we are coming out with a new process which will help in choosing guys that make lot’s of eagles/birdies at that tournament and then making lot’s of eagles/birdies in the events leading up to your week.

    Again what makes it hard is that the courses and conditions are different from week in and week out. Just because a player wins or finishes second or third doesn’t mean that they will play great the next week. You can get stats for baseball and football that guide you and help you choose players. But having good stats and records, like the one’s on GolfStats are only half the battle, the other is figuring out how a player feels each week before he tees it off.
    Example of that, last week I would of sworn on a Bubba Watson win. But little did we know that Watson was not happy at the course. By the time we found out it was too late to do anything about it. If I would of had the information he wasn’t happy, I would of gone about my picks totally different. So playing fantasy golf is much harder than football and baseball.

  5. Thanks for the insight Sal. But I must disagree with your opinion DraftKings Golf. While I very rarely venture into their GPP tournaments with any substantial $, their is major potential to earn $ in their 50/50 & H2H games, especially by targeting “fish”. I am amazed at the team make-up from high-dollar gamers in PGA. I truly believe it is foolish to think you can be an expert in all of the sports DK features, but some of their players must think otherwise.
    I notice you post your Performance Chart and Preview/Picks on Twitter. Is that something you do year-round?
    Thank you – Michael C.

  6. Hi Sal,
    Probably a dumb question but I wanted to know. In your rankings above you divide each group into how you think they will perform. Inside each of those groups are the players listed in order of who you like best as well? For example, are you saying you think Walker should perform better than Day this week?

  7. Yes I am, but again that are my thoughts and probably 80% of those that read it will disagree with me.
    The importance of my picks is showing there record. We are the only site that backs up what we say with stats, on this page you get those that are hot that are playing this week. In my picks you can see there record for this event.
    Again anyone can do picks, what we are trying to accomplish is giving you the tools to make better choices and enjoy the process.

  8. And that’s why I renew my subscription every year. Thanks again for everything.

  9. Hey Michael I think Sal was talking about GPP’s and not H2H and double ups.

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