BlogHonda Classic Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

What a great west coast swing and start of the season.  In 14 events we have 14 different winners, four of them past major winners along with some other stars in Brandt Snedeker, Kevin Kisner and Hideki Matsuyama.

For me it still weird weird not having the Match Play end the west coast swing, think with the move to Austin.  The way it was explained to me on the reason was that it still tends to be chilly at the end of February and the start of March, plus the four weeks gives the course more time to get over the winter and be in tip-top shape.  Still I think this would be the perfect week, then go to Honda and Valspar followed by the second WGC event in Doral.

Tour moves from west to east

So the 7 week west coast swing is finished and the tour moves east playing the next four weeks in Florida and Puerto Rico.  It’s like night and day, with the difference in weather and grasses we will see more folks with Florida roots winning and those that grew up and learned to play on Bermuda grasses will shine.  Also those that play well in wind will have their day as it tends to be very windy on the Florida swing.  This is also the final stretch run toward the Masters which is six weeks away.  With that the only players that can qualify for the Masters are the winners of the next six events and those that fight there way into the top-50 by the end of the Valero Texas Open.  It may seem hard to believe but for the FedEx Cup series the year is a third finish, time flies fast.

Things you need to know about the Honda Classic

This will be the 44th Honda Classic.  The tournament got started in 1972 as the Jackie Gleason Inverrary Classic and was played at Inverrary Golf & C.C. in Lauderhill, Florida.  A bit strange and nobody will bother to care, but Friday would of been the 100th birthday of Gleason, who was a really funny guy and loved golf.  In 1981 Jackie Gleason was dropped from the tournament and the following year Honda came aboard as the tournament sponsor, today they are the longest running sponsor on the PGA Tour. After playing at several courses for 15 years, the tournament switched courses again in 2007. This time to the Champion Course at PGA National, site of the 1983 Ryder Cup and 1987 PGA Championship.  It became an instant success and has upgraded the tournament with more marquee and higher ranked players attending. In 1976 the Players Championship, which back then moved around to different courses, chose Inverrary Golf & C.C., and the Inverrary Classic wasn’t played that year.  The event is the first event in the Florida swing.

Course information:

• PGA National (Champion Course)
• Palm Beach Gardens, Fl.
• 7,110 yards     Par 35-35–70
• Course has a 75.3 rating and slope rating of 147 fron the championship tees. The course is part of a resort and is open to those that stay at the course.  It also sells local memberships.
• Last year PGA National Champions Course played to a 71.83 average, only two courses on the PGA Tour were tougher in 2015.In 2014 the Champion Course was the 17th hardest course on the PGA Tour playing to a 70.408 average.  Because of the lack of wind and perfect weather all four days, it played the easiest it ever has since joining the tour in 2007.
• In 2013 the Champion was the 5th hardest course on the PGA Tour playing to a 71.318 average making it the hardest non-major course on the PGA Tour last year.
• Course has 78 bunkers and 26 water hazards in which 13 holes have water in play for the professionals.
• Originally designed by George and Tom Fazio and opened in 1981, Jack Nicklaus redesigned the Champion in 1990, adding the feared “Bear Trap” grouping of holes 15, 16 and 17. In the summer of 2013, The Champion underwent an entire bunker renovation with Nicklaus Design.
• The average size of the greens is 6,400 square feet.  The most famous part of the course is the “Bear Trap”, holes 15, 16 and 17, two par 3s and a par 4 that will bring a lot of drama and excitement to the finish of the tournament.  The 18th hole also creates a lot of drama, it’s a long par 5 that is close to impossible to hit in two, it’s a true par 5.
• PGA National has a lot of experience holding golf tournaments.  Along with the last eight Honda Classic’s, it’s held the 1983 Ryder Cup, the 1987 PGA Championship and was home to 18 Senior PGA Championships.  It also been the site of the 1982 PGA Grand Slam of Golf, the PGA Junior Championships from 1980-1987, 1989-1992, and 1994-2000 and the PGA Club Professional Championships in 1980, 1982, 1983 and 1993.

Here is a new feature we have, a look at key stats that are important for those playing at PGA National Champion Course:

This is based on the most important stats for PGA National Champion Course, based on data from last years Honda Classic, and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2016. What we do is take there rank for each stat and then add up the four catagories.
The scoring average of the field at PGA National in 2015 was 71.83, so with par being 70 that means the average score was a shot and a third over par, making PGA National the 3rd hardest course to score on in 2015 (only two courses played harder). It’s also important to see how the weather played a factor, last year weather was terrible, with a combination of rain and wind. This year the weather will be perfect and the course will play fast and dry, so scores will go down..

In looking at the stats for PGA National last year Greens hit, Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green and scambling are important. Last we pick birdie or better percentage because last year it was near impossible to make a lot of birdies and eagles. Last year four courses were harder than PGA National in making lot’s of birdies and eagles.

So how did the winner Padraig Harrington become victorious last year? He won in a playoff over Daniel Berger on the second extra hole. So how did Harrington win, in our key stats he ranked T-24th in greens hit, 2nd in strokes Gained Tee-to-Green and 6th in scrambling. He was T1st in birdie or better percentage as he made more birdies that week than anyone else.
*Greens in Regulation: Since the greens average 6,400 square feet normally they would be easy to hit. But since there is a lot of undulation, hitting it to the perfect place is important. Last year on the PGA Tour, the greens of PGA National were the 6th hardest to hit. This has been the norm for PGA National, in 2014 it ranked 18th, but in 2013 5th, in 2012 11th and 6th in 2011. So a player that hits lots of greens will have an advantage.

*Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green: Combination of driving stats and hitting it to the green, last year PGA National finished T-8th in this stat and was T-7th in 2014.

*Scrambling: No matter how good your game is, missing greens always happens so it’s important to salvage par. Last year PGA National ranked 7th hardest in scrambling so it’s a hard stat for players on this course.

*Birdie or Better Percentage: The course is so demanding that making a lot of birdies and eagles aren’t possible. So players that are able to make a lot will do well on this course which ranked 5th in this stat on tour in 2015.

For the field last year:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

For the rest of the players, hit this link.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Honda Classic:

Key stat for the winner:

• The tour moves from the west coast to Florida for the next four weeks. Look for a lot of different things as the difference between playing in California/Arizona/Hawaii is like night and day compared to playing in Florida. There is a special breed of player that does better on Bermuda than bent.
• At the Honda and PGA National, historically all of the winners have some connection to playing well on Bermuda by either being born in Florida, South Africa or Australia or have moved to the Southeast like Michael Thompson who lives in Birmingham, Alabama or Y.E. Yang who lives in Dallas.  There is also a connection with those like past champions Ernie Els, Camilo Villegas, Padraig Harrington and Rory McIlroy who have homes Jupiter, Florida.  Even guys like 2007 winner Mark Wilson, who was born in Wisconsin and lives in Illinois has a connection.  His is going to school in North Carolina, so you can see why his five PGA Tour has been on Bermuda courses in Florida, Mexico, Hawaii, Phoenix and Palm Springs.  Last year’s winner Russell Henley grew up in Macon, Georgia and lives on Kiawah Island which could understand why his two PGA Tour and three Web.Com tour wins are on courses with Bermuda grass.  So look for players with that Bermuda connections.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

Unbelievable and really weird stat:

• PGA National is a typical Florida course with lots of water and sand, look for scores to be a bit high especially if the win blows.  This will be the first time players see Bermuda fairways, rough and greens on the year, so it will take some getting use to.
• Accuracy is going to play the key over distance.  The Champions course is lined with tight undulating fairways that is surrounded with water and sand not only along the fairways but in the middle of several of the fairways. Hitting greens is very important, since moving to PGA National in 2007 six of the nine winners and nine of the fourteen runner-ups at Champions were ranked in the top-ten in greens hit.
• Very tough par 4s at PGA National, Mark Wilson was 4 under in ’07, Ernie Els was 2 under in ’08, Y.E. Yang was 6 under in ’09 while Camilo Villegas was 9 under par in ’10. Keeping trend going was Rory Sabbatini in 2011 playing them in 7 under, but showing that they are tough was Rory McIlroy who was only 3 under in 2012, Michael Thompson who was only 2 under on them in 2013 and Russell Henley who was 6 under in 2014.  Last year Padraig Harrington played them in 5 under.
• Good putting and scrambling.  The greens are very big and have lots of contours so the winner will be a very good lag putter.
• Interesting to note that 12 of the last 22 winners of the Honda are those that are either born Floridians or now live in Florida (including 2012 winner Rory McIlroy, who bought a house down the road in Jupiter).  A perfect example is 2006 champion, Luke Donald.  Even though he was born in Great Britian and spent a good part of his time in Chicago, he has a house just a couple of miles away.  Look for that kind of a connection in the winner.  We don’t count 2013 winner Michael Thompson on our list but he lives in Birmingham, Alabama so he has to deal all the time with Bermuda when he is home.  The same with last year’s winner Russell Henley who lives in Kiawah Island, South Carolina and again with have a bermuda connection.  Now we can’t consider Padraig Harrington as a “Floridan” even though he has had a place in Florida and has spent time there.
• Good bunker player since there are a lot of strategically placed bunkers on the course.
• Look for those that play good in wind, just look at 2015 & ’05 champion Padraig Harrington, don’t think there is anybody better qualified after learning to play golf in Ireland.  It could be quite windy this time of year and the course is susceptible to winds so look for a good wind player.  The good news wind shouldn’t be a problem for the week and better yet the week looks to be perfect in no rain and perfect temperatures.