Honda Daily Fantasy Golf Blog

Honda Classic

February 25th – 28th, 2016

PGA National Resort (Champion Course)

Palm Beach Gardens, Fla.

Par: 70 / Yardage: 7,158

Purse: $6.1 million

with $1,098,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Padraig Harrington

Honda Daily Fantasy Golf Blog

This is are new feature that we are going to run through the Masters.  What we want to try and do is give fantasy golf players a better way of getting inside information on players and tournaments. Hopefully with this page it will give you a better understanding on this subject.  I will be doing it with David Barrett, who was the chief of research at Golf World before it folded.  David has a keen sense in stats and loves playing Draft Kings on a weekly basis.  We are also going to give you our picks for Draft Kings and other items.  In the days ahead we will also have a Facebook page that will be devoted to this subject and hopefully it can create a stir in which we can all help each other.

Hope you enjoy this, each week will have it’s own blog devoted to the tournament from that week.

Also, we will be updating this blog during the tournament on Thursday through Sunday, so join us during those days.

Sal Johnson

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Monday, February 29th

9:30 AM

Scott wins the Honda and it’s off to Doral…

At the beginning of the year, many were writing off Adam Scott.  He hadn’t won a tournament since his 2014 Colonial victory, going into the Honda that was 21 months and 36 worldwide tournaments ago.  What experts were wondering was, with the new ban on anchoring putter to one’s body, if Scott could putt well enough to win again.  He proved some people wrong with his one-shot win over Sergio Garcia in the Honda Classic.  Scott won thanks to his great ball-striking, but the putter didn’t let him down as he ranked 23rd in strokes gained putting (gaining 2.688 strokes for the week) and in the final round didn’t miss anything under 10 feet which should quiet down anyone who says his putting is too poor for him to be an elite player.
Another thing Scott was able to do was keep it together on the back nine, something that he has had problems with.  Just a week before, Scott played the first four holes at the Northern Trust in four under and had the lead before a double bogey at 8 and bogeys at 14 and 15 dropped him back into a T-2nd.  Of course everyone remembers what happened to him at the 2012 British Open when he blew a four-shot lead with just four holes left when he bogeyed all four of the holes.
So things are looking up for Adam, in his last nine starts going back to last year’s Japan Open, he has only been out of the top 10 twice so there is now a lot of speculation that Scott could become a force to reckon with in 2016.  Scott makes the 81-mile trek down the Florida Turnpike from PGA National to Trump Doral with a lot of momentum when you consider that in nine Doral starts in the Cadillac, he has four top-10s, including a T-4th last year and a T-3rd in 2013

Here are some of Scott’s key numbers that helped him to victory and what it means for him:

  • 1st –  Ranking in Greens in Regulation (55 of 72), All Around, Ball Striking
  • 4 – Number of players who have made a quadruplet bogey and still won, since 1983
         * Adam Scott in the third round, 2016 Honda on the 15th hole
         * Phil Mickelson in the first round, 2009 Tour Championship on the par 4, 14th hole
         * David Toms in the final round of the 2003 Wells Fargo Open on the par 4 18th hole
         * David Graham in the third round, 1983 Shell Houston Open on the par 5 first hole
  • 7 of 11 – Number of wins he has had when leading or co-leading after the third round.
  • 12 – Number of wins Scott has on the PGA Tour, he leads the list of active players under the age of 40. Rory McIlroy is behind him with 11 followed by Bubba Watson and Dustin Johnson with 9.
  • 13 – Number of consecutive rounds on the PGA Tour Scott has been under par, dating to the final round of the WGC-HSBC Champions. In this streak, Scott is 32 under par.
  • 64 of 66 – Number of putts Scott made from 8 feet and under, so if there was any concern for Scott’s putter he took care of any of those concerns.

So this is the end of our Honda blog, we will continue this with our Cadillac blog that will go up today so please join us.  If you have any thoughts on how we can make this better, send them to us, thanks.

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UPDATE ON MONDAY, Noon

Jaco Van Zyl declined his spot in the WGC-Cadillac.  He had plans to play in the Investec event that is being played in South Africa next week and then travel to Austin to play in the Dell Match Play.  So he didn’t want to change which would of meant flying to Miami, flying back to South Africa and then flying to Texas.  So instead he will just take this week off.

11:30 PM

Five more added to Cadillac field…

Graeme McDowell, Fabian Gomez, Smylie Kaufman, Jason Dufner and Jaco Van Zyl were added to the field for the upcoming WGC-Cadillac Championship, bringing the field to 67 players.

Van Zyl did it through a back door by winning the Eye of Africa PGA Championship, he won enough points to take him from 68th to 49th in the world rankings.  Van Zyl plays both the South African and European Tour, he was 21st in the Race to Dubai last year.  The good news from Van Zyl was at the expense of Chris Kirk, who started the year 49th in the rankings, dropped to 50th for most of the west coast swing.  But after missing the cut at Northern Trust he dropped to 51st and dropped to 52nd after missing the Honda Cut. At least Kirk was able to secure a spot in the Masters with his end of the year climb into the top-50.  One person that has been a bit unlucky and he was unlucky this week was Matt Jones.  In November he won the Australian Open and climbed to 51st in the rankings.  Instead of playing at the Australian PGA or another year end event, Jones took time off and he wasn’t able to get into the top-50 at the end of the year and secure a Masters invite.  Instead he started the year 54th in the world rankings and worked his way to 52nd after finishing T-11th at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.  He also missed the cut at the Northern Trust and Honda so he wasn’t able to get into the top-50, thus costing him a lucrative payday at Doral, along with a chance of saftely climbing well into the top-50 and staying there at the end of the Valero Texas Open and get a spot into the Masters.

As for Gomez, Kaufman, Dufner and McDowell they get a spot in Doral thanks to finishing in the top-ten of the FedEx Cup standings.  As for McDowell, he shot 67-69 over the weekend and climbed 15 spots into a T-5th.  Two players that also had passes to the Cadillac, Jim Furyk and Thongchai Jaidee won’t be playing, Furyk is out for three months due to having surgery on his wrist while Jaidee is sick and can’t make the long journey from Thailand.

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Sunday, February 28th

7:30 PM

A rare dull week for Phil…
Phil Mickelson played his first nine of the first round in 3-under and looked to be building on a year where he ranks first on the PGA Tour in scoring average. Then, nothing. He was 2-over without a birdie on his second nine Thursday, and didn’t make a single birdie in a second-round 74. He finished with a pair of 70s for a T-37 in a very un-Phil like week in which he ranked near the bottom of the field in birdies with nine.
His second round produced a rarity—he two-putted all 18 holes. Of course, 36 putts is a bad total for a pro and his strokes gained putting was a poor -2.686. But almost as big a problem was that his approach shots were finishing too far from the hole. Even while hitting 15 greens in regulation, his strokes gained tee to green that day was just .341. For the week, he ranked 72nd on approach shot proximity even while ranking T-9 in greens in regulation.
Looking ahead to next week, while Mickelson hasn’t been great in Florida during his career, he’s had a few good weeks at Doral with a win at the WGC-Cadillac in 2009, a third in 2013, and a second at the old Doral event in 2005. If you like Lefty, his Honda performance isn’t reason to abandon him, but if you’re one of those who’s leery of Lefty, especially in Florida, it didn’t give you reason to jump onboard.
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5:30 PM

Adam and Sergio, down the stretch…

Fantasy golf wise I can’t think of two players that have given us more grief for our money than Sergio Garcia and Adam Scott.  Both were born in 1980 and are only six months apart with Sergio being older.  They players couldn’t have come from different backgrounds, Garcia born and raised in Spain, Scott born and raised in Australia.  Both turned pro early, Sergio in 1999 and Scott, who attended a year at University of Nevada-Las Vegas, in 2000.  Both played their first golf on the European Tour, with Sergio now playing both tours while Scott is just a member of the PGA Tour.
Both were young superstars that unfortunately broke into professional golf when Tiger Woods was winning on a regular basis.  So in a way, both players were typecast and were always in the shadow of Woods greatness.
Both have won a good share of victories, Scott has 12 PGA Tour victories and has won a total of 25 times around the world, while Garcia has won eight times on the PGA Tour and a total of 23 victories around the world.  Unfortunately both will be remembered not for their achievements in golf but how much better things could have been if they had played better in the clutch.
It’s hard to believe that in their careers on the PGA Tour, since 2003 they have only played together 35 times and this was only the fourth time they have played together in the final round and Sunday was the only time they played together in the final pairing.
As we said in the beginning, both Garcia and Scott could have been superstars but struggled, especially in the final round and the back nine.
In comparing the two, Sergio has played in 295 PGA Tour events.  He has won eight times, has had the third round lead/co-lead 13 times and won just three of those times.  Now here is the real bruiser.  He has either had the lead, share of the lead or been within five of the lead 68 times or 23% of the events and in those events it’s amazing to see each round scoring average.  In those 68 times his first-round scoring average is 68.6, his second-round average is 68.6, his third-round average is 68.2. Since we’re looking only at events where he has played very well through three rounds, we wouldn’t necessarily expect him to match those numbers in the final round, but Garcia hasn’t even come close, averaging 70.9 in those final rounds where he entered with a chance to win.
For Scott, he has played in 250 PGA Tour events.  He has won 12 times and has had the third-round lead/co-lead 11 times and won seven times, so he has done a good job in closing the deal. He has either had the lead, share of the lead or been within five of the lead 54 times or 21.6% of the events and in those events, here is his round by round average.  In the first round he averages 68.3, the second round he also is 68.3 so he is about the same as Garcia.  Scott is 68.9 in the third round, three quarters of a shot worse than Garcia.  But here is the big difference, Scott’s final round average is 69.9, a full stroke better so Scott is better under the gun.
Both players have underachieved in majors, Scott has won a Masters and has been runner-up twice, while Garcia still hasn’t won a major and has been runner-up four times.
It’s a shame, both have all the talent in the world and perhaps should have won a half dozen majors but while both have given away a lot of events, Scott has done much better in the clutch than Sergio has, a trend which held true on Sunday at the Honda.

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1:30 PM

Sunday odds and ends

Louis Oosthuizen wins in Australian…

Even with a final hole bogey, Oosthuizen was a one-shot winner over Alexander Levy in the ISPS Handa Perth International.  Since 2007 he has won 11 times, with 10 of them coming before the Masters (only post-Masters victory, 2010 British Open).  So as he makes the 11,384-mile journey from Australia to Miami for the WGC-Cadillac he has a lot of time to think of how he can win after March.  Nine of his wins are in South Africa, but he is a major winner and came close to winning the U.S. Open last year so we expect more from him.  He did finish T-6th at Doral last year, but Perth is the farthest place on the globe from Miami and with the 24-hour travel and 13-hour time change I don’t expect much from him.

In the same boat, Charl Schwartzel…

He has won a Masters (in 2011), but of his 14 worldwide wins, nine of them are leading up to the Masters with eight of them in South Africa.  The difference between him and Oosthuizen is that Schwartzel likes playing in the Northern Telecom and has played in it the last four years (was T-45th last week in L.A.).  He had a rough start to his year this year, suffering very a serious stomach virus which prevented him from playing in the South African and Joburg Opens.  He didn’t play in Abu Dhabi, Qatar or Dubai and made his first start at the Tshwane Open in South Africa, winning it.  So for many the question will be whether his game will be sharp for Doral.  The answer is easy, he finished runner-up in 2010, T-4th in 2012 and T-9th in 2014.  Last year he was T-44th, but he is a player that we can see doing very well at Doral.

Patrick Reed disappoints a lot of folks…
After finishing T-6th at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, many including myself thought that Reed could go on a tear in Florida.  He finished last year with six top-10 finishes and then was runner-up at the Hyundai Tournament of Champions.  He struggled in the CareerBuilder and withdrew at Torrey, the bad weather got the best of him.  But he played well at Pebble, so going to the Honda where he was T-7th last year we thought he would be a shoo-in to finish in the top 10.
We were wrong, Reed missed the cut only making three birdies over 36 holes compared to nine bogeys.  Reed’s ball striking was very poor, he hit just 14 of 28 fairways and was 18 of 36 in greens hit.  So is he a guy to look forward to playing well at Doral?  He was a surprise winner in 2014 and T23rd last year but one thing I am fretting about is he was the only Ryder Cup team contender in the Honda field not to show up for the Thursday night, Jack Nicklaus Ryder Cup team-bonding dinner.  I know that Reed isn’t everyone’s cup of tea, it was reported that someone in his family was ill and that is why he didn’t show up.  Just have to wonder if he wasn’t sick, maybe that explains his terrible play but it makes us wonder if he will be sharp enough at Doral.  Has lots of time, but still he is a question mark for me.

Jimmy Walker fall’s apart on Saturday…

As we said early in the week, since the PGA Tour went to the wrap-around schedule in 2014 Jimmy Walker has been the big winner of the change.  But he is still looking for that win in 2016 and he got off to a great start at the Honda with rounds of 67-66.  But Saturday was a disaster as he had five bogeys and three double bogeys in shooting 79.  This was his highest round since the second round in the 2013 British Open and it dropped him 30 places on the leaderboard.  Now Sunday was a bit better but still not good as he shot 75 and dropped to T-56th on the leaderboard.  So going into Doral there are a lot of questions about his game, which isn’t very sharp right now.

 

So what the hell happen to your game Mr. Grace?…
A lot of fantasy players took a bath this week on what many thought was there secret weapon. Many including myself thought that Branden Grace would shine in the Honda, after finishing in the top-25 in his last nine starts and in the top-five in five of his last six starts. He can close at Chambers Bay finishing T-4th and was 3rd at the PGA Championship. Grace was third in the race to Dubai last year and won his last start in Qatar. So for a lot of savvy fantasy players, Grace was the ticket to riches. Gosh how wrong we were, Grace made five bogey, two doubles and a triple bogey as he shot 73-74 to get the weekend off, his first missed since last year’s Travelers Championship. Grace didn’t hit the ball well and had a balky putter and going into the Cadillac, the question will be if he can regain his forum. One thing that was questionable, he hadn’t played in a month so maybe he was rusty. Also think his past record at Doral, the best finish being a T-35th in four starts makes him no longer the savvy pick, but one of question. Grace has played in 46 PGA Tour events and only has five top-tens, so we can only guess on his play at Doral.

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12:00 PM

Leaders Can’t Feel Safe…
Adam Scott and Sergio Garcia are four shots clear of the rest of the field, but neither can feel all that comfortable heading into the final round. PGA National, with all of its water, can produce high numbers even for players seemingly playing well, as shown by 36-hole leader Rickie Fowler shooting a 4-over 74 on Saturday. Last year at the Honda, Ian Poulter had a three-stroke 54-hole lead but hit five balls in the water on Sunday and shot a 74 to finish T-3rd; two years ago, 54-hole leader Rory McIlroy shot a 74 to finish T-2nd; three years ago co-leader Luke Guthrie shot a 73 to finish third.
Garcia has his own worries, as he has only three wins in the 12 times he has held at least a share of the 54-hole lead on the PGA Tour, including only one of the last 10. In his last four attempts, he has shot 73 or worse three times. Scott is 6-for-10 with 54-hole leads on the PGA Tour, but the last two times he has been in that position he shot a 75 at the 2012 British Open and a 76 at the 2014 Arnold Palmer.

So  the story is that these two stars aren’t slam-dunk to win this afternoon.

Singh charge fizzles…
Vijay Singh turned 53 six days ago, but he’s still choosing to grind it out on the PGA Tour instead of teeing it up with the seniors, which he’s done only occasionally. It’s a prideful decision, and a questionable one considering his record. After finishing 124th on the money list in 2015 while playing 23 events with one top-10, Singh came into the Honda having entered five events this season with no finish better than T-44th.
Singh is in position for his best finish since last March’s T-10th at the Valspar, entering the Honda final round at T-6th, but the end to his third round showed his age and his putting woes. He was 5-under on the day through 14 holes, three strokes out of the lead, and had a 20-foot birdie putt on the 15th. He proceeded to four-putt for a double bogey and then added a bogey on the other Bear Trap par 3, the 17th, to finish with a 68 and six strokes off the lead.

Singh needed a win to play in next week’s WGC-Cadillac, so he wil have the week off and be back for Valspar.

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Saturday, February 27th

10:30 AM

Possible back woes plaguing Freddie Jacobson?…
Brian Biggane in Saturday’s Palm Beach Post had an interesting note that had me thinking about how Jacobson almost didn’t play in the Honda because of back issues. Says that he only played because he is a Hobe Sound resident and his three kids were disappointed he wasn’t playing in his home event so he gave it a try.  Now we know his story, he took time off last year to spend more time with his family because his youngest child, 8-year-old Max was diagnosed with a heart defect and had surgery in August to fix the problem.  But many didn’t realize that Jacobson had two surgeries, a planned one for a hernia and an unplanned one for his appendix since the summer so his comeback with top-fives in the RSM Classic (5th), Farmers Insurance (T-4th) and AT&T Pebble (T-4th) is pretty remarkable.  So news of this back issue is a bit of concern.  Jacobson made the cut at the Honda on the number with rounds of 72-71, but still we may have to watch him to see if the back either gets better or worse in the coming weeks.

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Saturday, February 27th

9:40 AM

So what about Rory and the WGC-Cadillac?…
With rounds of 72-72 Rory McIlroy missed his first cut since the Irish Open last May. He may have won the DP World Tour Championship in November but he hasn’t really been “SuperSharp” since winning the Wells Fargo in May.  That was the tail end of a steak of 19 events going back to the 2014 British Open, in which he finished out of the top five just seven times (and 18 top-tens in those 19 events) and won six times.
Despite being third in the world rankings, many think McIlroy is the best player in golf.  But we know that Rory goes hot and cold.  I am not saying he is inconsistent like Bubba Watson or Dustin Johnson, just because Rory doesn’t have his “A” game, doesn’t mean he can’t win, he did it in November in Dubai.  So what is the problem with Rory’s game?  Since his missed cut at the Irish Open it’s been a balky putter, the main reason Rory had laser eye surgery in December, to help him putt better.  But that wasn’t the case this week.  Rory was just plain sloppy, making two double bogeys and a triple along with six bogeys.  Now that doesn’t mean that Rory can’t contend at Doral, just look at Sergio Garcia.  He looked terrible at L.A. missing the cut at the Northern Trust and is among the leaders this week.
Last year Rory missed the cut at the Honda, then finished T-9th so anything is possible.  One thing not boding well for Rory, with his final-round 75 at the Northern Trust along with his pair of 72s he goes into the Cadillac with three straight over par rounds.  The last time he did that was last year at the Honda shooting 73-74 and then he opened the Cadillac with a 73, before finishing with a 70-72-72.  Will he win at Doral? Probably not but he could contend.

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Friday, February 26th

3:40 PM

Water balls sink Rory…
Rory McIlroy followed up a disappointing final round at the Northern Trust with a disappointing showing at the Honda, where he shot 72-72 in the first two rounds and is likely to miss the cut at four over. He was a victim of PGA National’s par 3s, twice hitting into the water and making a double bogey on the 15th (his sixth) and a triple bogey on the fifth (his 14th), where his first shot finished on the edge of the hazard and he was unsuccessful in escaping with his second, having to take a penalty and hit his fourth shot onto the green where he missed from five-and-a-half feet. It was a costly miscue as he will probably miss the cut by one.
His ball-striking wasn’t really that solid all day, as he was forced to scramble for several pars after wayward tee shots or approaches. Four birdies weren’t enough to save him. While not an encouraging performance, it’s not necessarily a reason to jump off the McIlroy bandwagon. He’s always been the type of player who has a bad tournament now and then.
As an aside: This will mark the second straight week the top-ranked player in the field missed the cut (last week, No. 1 Jordan Spieth.)

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2:30 PM

Great in the first round, but then….
Michael Thompson seems to fall apart after the first round.  He came into this week with first-round average of 67.89 this season, which ranks 5th. His 65 in the first round made it eight first rounds in the 60s out of 10, shooting 70 in the first round of the Farmers and then 75 in the first round of the AT&T Pebble.
So his second round 73 made sense, on tour his second round scoring average is 70.89 which ranks T-124th.  On Thursday he made an eagle and five birdies, on Friday only two birdies.  On Thursday he made only two bogeys, on Friday five. On Thursday he hit 8 of 14 fairways, 14 of 18 greens but on Friday he hit only 6 of 14 fairways and 12 of 18 greens.  So we can see why Thompson has struggled this year with a 70.47 scoring average (adjusted to the field average he’s at 71.24 to rank 116th).  He is also 121st in the FedEx Cup race and I don’t see it moving drastically after this week.  Thompson right now is T-5th and made the cut, but I sense what is going to happen over the weekend, I bet he won’t finish in the top-30.

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1:30 PM

Route 66…
International wins are nice, especially at events with good fields like the Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship on the European Tour that Rickie Fowler won in January—or the Scottish Open he captured last summer. But PGA Tour wins look better on your record. Fowler followed up that Scottish win with one in the U.S. at the Deutsche Bank last year, and is trying to do the same now. He nearly won in Phoenix, falling in a playoff, and now he’s ahead midway through the second round of the Honda after a second straight 66. Counting his win at the Players last May, he has four international wins in less than a year as he tries to make inroads on the formidable Spieth-McIlroy-Day trio. A win at the Honda would go a long way. Here are some numbers on his first two rounds and his history:

  • 0 – Number of bogeys in the first 36 holes, an extraordinary feat at trouble-filled PGA National and a accomplishment that has never been done since the Honda has been played at PGA National.  It’s also the first time that Fowler has had back-to-back bogey-free rounds. He actually wasn’t as solid Friday, missing six greens, but his short game was outstanding. Only one of his six par saves was from longer than five feet (a 12-footer on the fourth hole, his 13th.)
  • 22 – Fowler capped his round by making his longest putt of the day on his last hole, No. 9, a 22-footer that was the only one of his four birdies from outside 10 feet.
  • 7 – A T-7th in 2012 was his best in six Honda appearances.
  • 66 – That was his previous best at PGA National (fourth round in 2012); he’s now added two more.
    6 – Rounds of 67 or better in his last 12 PGA Tour rounds.

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Friday, February 26th

1:15 PM

A good second round for Sergio…
Overnight co-leader Sergio Garcia shot 69 on Friday.  For the second straight day he hit 13 of 18 greens, but a disappointment for him was not taking advantage of the two par 5s.  After making birdie on them in Thursday’s round, Garcia only made pars on Friday.  The Spaniard did birdie the par 3 7th and 17th holes, along with a birdie at 4.  His two bogeys came on one and six, both of them on missing the green and not able to get up and down.
The important thing is he goes into the weekend with a chance of winning.  He is a perfect six for six at the Honda in making the cut, his best finish was a T-8th in 2014.

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1:00 PM

A recurring problem for Hideki Matsuyama…
He wasn’t able to make his 7:45 tee time, the PGA Tour is saying he withdrew due to injury.  Matsuyama has over the course of his career had problems with his left wrist and been forced in the last three years to withdraw from a lot of tournaments.  He had an up and down round on Thursday, finishing birdie-birdie for a 71.  Historically he has never played well in Florida, in six starts his best was a T-17th at the 2015 Players Championship.  So despite his Phoenix win it’s probably best to forget about him till the Masters where he historically does well.

12:45 PM

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Here comes Jimmy…
Since the advent of the wrap-around schedule, Jimmy Walker has become the most prolific player at the beginning of the season. For the last three years, Walker has made $6.7 million in the first 14 events of the year. The next closet player is Bubba Watson at $5.9 million. But for 2016 he has not won yet, in 2014, ’15 he had four wins. Walker could have won in San Diego, but was stuck in some terrible conditions on the final round shooting 77 and falling into a tie for 4th.
Historically Walker hasn’t done well in Florida, in 29 previous visits he only has two top-tens, a T-8th at the 2013 Arnold Palmer Invitational and a T-6th in the 2014 Players Championship. In seven previous Honda visits, he has made five cuts but his best finish was T-31st in 2006. His best PGA National finish was T-38th in 2008, so we discount Walker when he plays in Florida.
Maybe we should consider him for the rest of the Florida events. He shot 66 in the second round and with his first round 67 is at seven under and a shot back of Rickie Fowler, who leads at lunch time. Here are some key numbers on how Walker is doing it:

  • 4 under – His play on the par 5, he has two birdies, one par and one eagle.
  • 5 – Total number os shots he played his last two holes on Friday, he birdied 17 with a 25 foot putt for birdie and then holed a 40 footer on 18 for an eagle.
  • 10 – Number of birdies he has made in two rounds, at lunch time on Friday he has made the most along with Patton Kizzire who made 7 in his round of 64 on Friday.
  • 72.22 – He has hit 26 of 36 greens, on Friday he hit 15 of 18.

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11:20 AM

Anyone looking for a real dark horse in the future?…
Si Woo Kim has had a good 2015-2016 season. In 11 starts he has two top-10s, a 4th at the Sony Open and a T-9th in the CareerBuilder Challenge. More importantly he is pretty steady, yes he has missed three cuts including last week in the Northern Trust, but for the tenth straight start he opened up his first round at par or under with his 68 at PGA National. After a poor front nine of two bogeys and seven pars, he made birdie at 10, traded a bogey at 14 with a birdie at 15 and then finished his round with a birdie at 17 and a 15-footer at 18 for an eagle.
In his second round, Kim had a terrible start making bogeys at four of his first six holes. But he did make two birdies and unfortunately bogeyed five and six and then finished with three pars for a 74. Despite being four over on the day, he is T-55th at two over through two rounds and will make another cut and for those looking for that fifth and sixth player in their Draft Kings pick, Kim may be a player to look at.

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9:50 AM

My hero for the day...
Sam Saunders may have shot a first round 69 and it places him T-14th with eight other players.  But it was more than that.  He teed off at 8:35 in the morning and it was the height of the windy conditions.  Playing from the 10th tee, he immediately made a bogey at 10. After making a birdie at 13, Saunders pulled his tee shot out of bounds at 14.  He then hit the fairway with his third shot, but hit his fourth shot in the water right of the green.  This is where he got his act together, from 53 yards he hit a tricky pitch, over a bunker to two feet and made the putt for a triple bogey seven.  Sounds bad, but it could of been worse.  Well it did get worse, he hit his tee shot into the water at 15, but again made a great wedge shot from 109 yards to within two and a half feet, making the putt for a bogey.  So just like that he was four over and still had to play two holes of the Bear Trap.  Saunders parred 16 and 17, then at 18 holed a 23-foot putt for a birdie, shooting 38 on his first nine.
On the back, Saunders got rolling making a 29-foot putt at No. 1 for birdie, at the third he made a six-footer for another birdie, then had the shot of the day on No. 5.  He didn’t hit a very good tee shot on the par 3, just getting it over the water short, right of the green.  From 78 feet, Saunders pitched it in for another birdie.  He had more problems at the sixth, missing the fairway right and then hitting his second shot into a greenside bunker.  From there he hit it seven feet away and made the putt to save par.  At the par-3 seventh, he hit is within 11 and a half feet and made the putt for his sixth birdie of the day.  He made routine pars at eight and nine for his 69.  It was a remarkable round considering that he hit only 2 of 14 fairways and 11 of 18 greens.  He made 113 feet of putts, which placed him in the top 10 of that stat, but more importantly he really needed a good round.  He made the tour off the Web.Com tour but in his first eight events of 2015-2016, he has only made one cut finishing T-29th at the OHL Classic at Mayakoba.  Because of his poor play Saunders suffered in the reshuffle, dropping to 35th which means limited events in the future. His 69 was a good sign, and so was his last round, his best of the year when he shot 67 at Monterey Peninsula. For the future, especially since he is playing in Florida where he is more comfortable, things are pointing in the right direction.

My second hero of the day…
We all know what a hero double heart transplant Erik Compton is. He is a hero of everyone because of his story, but he always experiences peaks and valleys. Compton always struggles on the West Coast, in 144 PGA Tour starts he has only had one top-10 on the west coast swing, a T-10th in the 2015 CareerBuilder. So it’s not surprising that in nine 2015-2016 season starts, he has only made three cuts and his best finish is T-26th in the Frys.Com Open. The good news, he’s back in Florida where of his five top-ten finishes, two of them are in Florida, including a T-4th in the 2013 Honda Classic.
Compton got off to a great start, making birdie on two of his first three holes and finished with a 68. He hit 9 of 14 fairways, 11 of 18 greens and made 85 feet of putts.
Compton is always a good choice when it comes to playing on bermuda grass, so look for him to do well in the next five weeks.

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Thursday, February 25th

9:00 PM

A good crisp morning…

greeted the early morning players, as cold temperatures in the 50s along with gusts up to 30 mph made it tough for those first off.  Still some did OK as George McNeill, Shane Lowry and David Lingmerth were able to shot 67.  The top four all played in the afternoon, as Sergio Garcia and Michael Thompson shot 65, followed by 66s by Rickie Fowler and William McGirt.  Also teeing off in the afternoon were Jimmy Walker and Justin Hicks, who shot 67 so you would think that those playing in the morning got the worst of it.
Not really.  Yes things did get better in the afternoon, temperatures climbed into the high 60s and there was less wind, but the difference wasn’t that bad.  The morning players averaged 72.389, while the afternoon gang, minus the three that didn’t finish 18 averaged 72.220 so there was no real advantage.
Some marquee players did well, Phil Mickelson got it to 3 under through nine holes (played back nine first) but finished with two bogeys and seven pars for a 69.  Adam Scott had an even day of three birdies and three pars for an even-par 70.  Rory McIlroy had a roller-coaster type of day as he shot 72 and is T-65.  His day consisted of five birdies, seven pars, five bogeys and a double bogey.  In a bit of irony, defending champion Padraig Harrington shot 73, the same score last year’s runner-up Daniel Berger shot.  Of the marquee names that disappointed, Patrick Reed shot 74 and Zach Johnson shot 75.
Here are some notes and things that will be important for fantasy players for the rest of this week and in future weeks.

Rapid turnaround…
Sergio Garcia admitted he came into the Honda without much confidence after missing the cut last week at Riviera. Perhaps he was merely rusty last week, as it was only his second tournament of 2016 (and first in the U.S.). He certainly was in fine form in the first round of the Honda, with very few mistakes with his long game and no miscues on the greens. Here are five numbers from his round:

  • 148 – Garcia holed out an 8-iron from that many yards into the wind for an eagle on the par-4 second to jump-start his round.
  • 11 – The Spaniard hit 11 of 14 fairways to put himself in good position on nearly every hole. One of his misses did find a water hazard on the sixth hole, but he avoided a penalty stroke as he was able to play out and make a bogey.
  • 13 – Garcia hit 13 greens on a day when the average player hit 10.3.
  • 2.20 – Garcia’s strokes gained putting number enabled him to capitalize on his ball-striking to turn a good round into a tournament-leading one.
  • 13 – Garcia didn’t miss any putts inside 13 feet all day.

He kind of likes this place…
Since winning the 2013 Honda, Michael Thompson has struggled.  In 75 starts since, he has only finished in the top 10 four times and his best finish was a T-3rd in last year’s FedEx St. Jude Classic.  Thompson has been struggling with his ball-striking and worked with his teachers who got him thinking differently before the first round.  It helped, he played solid, hitting the ball in the center of the clubface which allowed him to control his ball.  For the day he hit 8 of 14 fairways and 14 of 18 greens.  This is important because only two other players hit more greens than him.  Thompson had an eagle on the third hole, five birdies, ten pars and only two bogeys.  He finished strong playing his last four holes in two under.
The Honda is Thompson’s little annuity, it’s the only event he has won over a million dollars in.  The 65 isn’t his best opening score on tour, he shot 64 to open up the first round at the Shriners Hospital for Children Open in October, he went on to finish T-50th.  Here are some key numbers for Thompson’s day and career:

  • 3 – He had an eagle three on the par 5, third hole. It was only the third eagle on the day
  • 5 – Number of times he has led or co-led after the first round. Of those events he never won, the only top-ten finish he had was a T-2nd in the 2012 U.S. Open.
  • 31 – Front nine score, lowest of the day also shot by Sergio Garcia and Sam Saunders.

Much improved…

William McGirt is having his best year on the PGA Tour, and he’s a factor after the first round at the Honda thanks to birdies on 16, 17, and 18 giving him a 66 to sit within one of the lead. The South Carolina resident has five top-25 finishes in eight starts in the 2015-16 season, a strong start for a player who has never had more than eight top-25s in a year or ranked better than 74th on the money list for a full season (he’s currently 28th). Improved ball-striking is the key, as he ranks 17th in strokes gained tee to green. That was true of his first-round pay at the Honda. He made seven birdies, with only two of them coming on putts outside of seven feet. McGirt now has been under par in four of his last eight rounds at PGA National, showing some affinity for the tough track.

Roller-Coaster type of day...
Didn’t see much of Shane Lowry on TV today, probably because every time he did well, he turned around and gave the shots back.  After winning the Bridgestone in August, Lowry missed the cut at the PGA Championship and didn’t tee it up in America until the Farmers.  He finished T-13th at Torrey, then T-6th at Phoenix and T-41st at Pebble so he was under the radar coming to the Honda.
He got things rolling with birdies at four, five and six but just as fast missed putts inside five feet to bogey at 7 and 8.  He hit a poor drive at ten which costed him another bogey and then made a five-footer for birdie at 13.  But just like the rest of his round, he quickly hit another poor drive at 14 and missed an 8-footer for par.  But he made up for everything at the end.  His tee shot at the par-13 17th finished 17 feet away and he made the putt.  At 18 he hit probably his best shot of the day.  From 240 yards out, he hit three-iron to just three feet and made the putt for one of four eagles on that hole for the day.  Now it’s not surprising that Lowry played well, he is from Ireland and knows how to play on windy, cold days.  So if the wind continues, he could be the man to beat.

A big surprise…
For George McNeill the 2016 season has been a big disaster. In five PGA Tour starts he has missed five cuts, but once the Floridian got back on native turf, things turned around. He made six birdies, a bogey and a double as he put together his second sub 70 rounds of the year, a 67. McNeill hit 6 of 14 fairways, 10 of 18 greens but the key to his day was putting. He made seven putts over ten feet, the longest being 43 feet at the 5th hole. It makes sense, in McNeill’s two victories and his seven runner-up finishes, all of them have come on bermuda greens, with three of his runner-up finishes coming in Florida. So McNeill is off to a great start at making sure his first paycheck of the year will be a big one.

Back in the running…
After losing a playoff to Jason Dufner at the CareerBuilder, David Lingmerth had a tough time, missing the cut in Phoenix and Pebble. But coming to Florida, the Swede’s transplanted home, did wonders for him as he shot 67 at the height of the heavy winds in the morning. Lingmerth came close to having a bogey-free round until he missed his second shot left on the 14th hole, left his chip 30 feet away and missed the putt. For the day he did it with some great ball striking as he only made one putt over five feet, a 14 footer at the ninth hole. For the day, Lingmerth hit 11 of 14 fairways and 12 of 18 greens, his 67 was the third best opening round he has had in 85 PGA Tour starts.

Can’t catch a break…
2016 was going to be a challenging year for Carl Pettersson. He was one of a dozen players that have used the long putter anchored to his body and was forced to change it. But something happened at the end of last year, mysteriously he withdrew from both the OHL Classic at Mayakoba and the RSM Classic before the tournaments began. When he started playing at the Sony Open he missed the cut with a pair of 71s and then missed the cut at the CareerBuilder. The next week at San Diego his two rounds of 77-76 were miserable and we got an indication of a possible problem at Phoenix when after a first round 72, he was 3 over after five holes and walked in, citing a wrist problem. He took the next week off and played at the Northern Trust shooting 71-71-71-72 and finishing T-59th. He teed it up at the Honda, started on the tenth tee making doubles at 10, 11 and 14, then capped off his first nine with a nine on the 18th hole to shot 45. Instead of going to the first tee, he walked into the clubhouse and withdrew, with no reason. So we have to wonder if he has some kind of a wrist injury that is causing the poor play.

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9:15 AM

Is Phil’s game ready for prime time again?…

Tom D’Angelo with a story in the Palm Beach Post on how Phil Mickelson is regaining his confidence.
We all know that Mickelson hasn’t won since the 2013 British Open. Since then he has played in 53 worldwide events with only eight top-ten finishes. For many insiders we thought that possibly Phil was bothered by Psoriatic Arthritis, an ailment that he was diagnosed with in 2010. After seeing a rheumatologist then, he’s been treated for it, but as we all know when we get older, more aches and pains are associated with age. Now the outlook for Phil is good, that the disease is mild and affects some joints, but he could still be having some pain. So who knows, maybe this has hampered Phil and he isn’t saying anything about it.
Mickelson is a very upbeat guy and one of the things that worked with his associated with Butch Harmon was that Butch would fill Mickelson with a lot of positive feedback. Over the course of time, that positive feedback hasn’t been working and the pair broke up at the end of the year. Mickelson is working with Andrew Getson and the pair have been working on improving Phil’s driving. Let’s look at Phil’s driving accuracy stats over the last five years and see if things are working:
2015 – 55.98% – ranked 161st
2014 – 58.01% – ranked 140th
2013 – 57.30% – ranked 149th
2012 – 54.31% – ranked 174th
2011 – 53.20% – ranked 177th
Mickelson has only played in four events, but he has improved his driving accuracy to 66.27%, ranking 151st. Now it’s a small sampling, two of the four events were played in the desert where accuracy off the tee is easy.  So honestly we can’t really see much improvement in this one stat.
What I do see is major improvements in all areas of Mickelson’s game. There is a stat called Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green in which all parts of his game from tee to green are looked at, driving distance and accuracy, greens hit and how close you get it. If you look at his numbers for the last five years and compare it with this year, you see lot’s of improvement in 2015
2015 – .242 – ranked 65th
2014 – .471 – ranked T43rd
2013 – .703 – ranked 26th
2012 – .721 – ranked 27th
2011 – 1.240 – ranked 3rd

In 2016 Mickelson is ranked 5th in this stat at 1.613 so yes he has improved his overall driving, along with hitting more greens.
Now not being mentioned is his around the green and putting stats. First scrambling. In his lean years he ranked 78th in scrambling in 2013, 20th in 2014, 84th in 2015 and this year 6th. So good improvement there. One sign I see very good improvement in is putting, you look at his Strokes Gained putting, he ranked T-5th in 2013, then dropped to 50th in 2014, T-41st last year before rebounding to 5th this year.

Now of course four west coast events for 2016 is a very small data range in which he has 19 of his 42 wins on. So this week will be an interesting test for Phil. You see Phil and Florida haven’t been the best of friends over the last 25 years. A lot has to do with playing on Bermuda and then the windy conditions that players encounter. In Phil’s career he has played in Florida tournaments 63 times. He has won three of them, first the 1997 Arnold Palmer Invitational, then the 2007 Players Championship and then the 2009 WGC Cadillac at Doral. But in the 63 Florida events he has played in, he only has ten, top-10 finishes with a 71.18 average so he hasn’t played his best in Florida. In the Honda he has played in it five times, but only twice at PGA National missing the cut in 2014 and finishing T-17th last year.

The point is, if we are to buy into Phil’s “new game” we have to see some of it this week and next at Doral. Now with perfect conditions and lack of wind, it gives Mickelson a great chance and I think that Phil still has some magic left in his career, but I think the next two weeks will be very important in stoking Phi’s mentality that he is back.

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Wednesday, February 24th

7:30 PM

Webb Simpson withdraws and possible concern with the defender…
Despite playing on Tuesday and everything looking good, Webb Simpson withdrew this afternoon and the Tour hasn’t cited a reason. Because of that Dawie van der Walt is playing, he has never played in the Honda.
Another possible concern is defending champion Padraig Harrington, the PGA Tour sent out the news on Twitter that Harrington withdrew from the Wednesday pro-am and was having his back worked on.

He was in the press room on Tuesday and very excited to defend his title. He talked about how much he has worked on getting his hands closer to his body through impact and how good everything has been working. He started 2015 with a T-6th at the Hyundai Tournament of Championship, his first top-ten since winning at Honda last year. In his next couple of events he finished T-56th at the Sony, missed the cut at Phoenix, T-21st at the AT&T Pebble and T-45th at the Northern Trust.
Now Harrington a couple of days ago said he was undergoing treatment for skin cancer, but didn’t say when those treatments were, but it’s doubtful that’s a problem. Harrington did injure his knee back in August playing tennis, an MRI taken at the time had the news that he had sustained cartilage damage and while the knee was structurally sound it is a scenario where he had to keep icing the knee, and contine taking prescribed anti-inflammatories. But in the first week of November he had surgery to repair a meniscus tear in his left knee. He took two months off and when he returned at Kapalua everything seemed ok, except for the weird cryo bath that he was taking. He would go into a “air bath” for six minutes in which the temperatures were minus 140 degrees. He said the treatments were great and helped him bounce back.

So we have to take a wait and see approach, Harrington is supposed to play at 12:45, on the first tee.

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4:30 PM

Can you believe it’s been a year…

Last year Daniel Berger arrived on our radar screen as he took Padriag Harrington to a couple of playoff holes before dumping his tee shot in the water on 17 to lose.  We learned a lot about him, a South Floridian native and thought that the 22 year-old could be the next great player.  He had a couple of good finishes, a T-13th at the Palmer, T-6th in New Orleans and T-10th at the Nelson before reappearing on everyone’s screen at the BMW Championship finishing solo 2nd.  The finish got him into the Tour Championship were he finished T-12th but more importantly it got him an invite to the Masters and he climbed to 42nd in the World Rankings.

Since the Tour Championship he has only played in seven events and on the west coast swing missed the cut twice and was T-58th in Phoenix.

In his press conference he said it didn’t matter how good or bad he is playing, playing at PGA National seems to bring the best out of him and he expects a good week.  Stat wise his numbers are solid, with the exception of greens hit.  Last year he ranked 30th with a 68.84% average while this year he is down to 68.06% and ranked 111th.  So what are his chances?  I don’t see him winning, he’s just not in the groove but again he loves the area, plays down the road at Dye Preserve so he will have a lot of friends and family rooting for him.  So I expect for him to make the cut and get into the top-25, who knows maybe he will find the groove again on these old stomping grounds.

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2:15pm

Home cooking…

If sleeping in your own bed and eating at your own dining table provides an advantage over life on the road, then 25 players have that edge this week as the Palm Beach area has become an increasingly popular place to live for PGA Tour pros. Since the Honda Classic moved to PGA National in 2007, three local residents have won: Rory McIlroy (2012), Camilo Villegas (2010), and Ernie Els (2008). Five have finished second: Daniel Berger (2015), McIlroy (2014), Tom Gillis (2012), Luke Donald (2008), and Villegas (2007).

The three players with the shortest commute live in PGA National’s hometown of Palm Beach Gardens—Nicholas Thompson, Patrick Rodgers, and Jeff Overton. The most popular spot is Jupiter, less than 15 miles away, where McIlroy, Donald, Berger, Villegas, Gillis, Jamie Lovemark, Brooks Koepka, Luke List, Keegan Bradley, Rickie Fowler, Derek Fathauer, Morgan Hoffmann, and Will MacKenzie reside. Els is just about as close in West Palm Beach, as is club pro Alan Morin in Royal Palm Beach. Inside 20 miles are Jon Curran, Steve Marino, and Lucas Glover in Tequesta and Justin Hicks in Wellington. A bit further up the coast is Freddie Jacobson in Hobe Sound, while the longest commute belongs to Jim Herman and Ken Duke 35 miles away in Palm City.

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11:30am

More Bear Trap stats…
In a previous note, we had some stats on the “Bear Trap”. The PGA Tour released a cheat sheet on “Bear Trap” stats and here are some of the highlights:

Since 2007…

there have been 974 balls in the water on the 3-hole stretch of the Bear Trap. 430 different players have played at least 1 competitive round on the Bear Trap in the Honda Classic. Since 2007, 325 of 430 (76%) players have hit at least 1 ball in the water on the Bear Trap.
There are currently 105 players that have played the Bear Trap at least once in competition without hitting a ball in the water. However, just 15 of those players have played 6 or more rounds at PGA National. 2013 Honda Classic champion Michael Thompson currently has the most rounds played (14) without recording a ball in the water on the Bear Trap. Here are the others:

Michael Thompson in 14 rounds
Michael Bradley in 12 rounds
Peter Lonard in 10 rounds
John Huh in 10 rounds
Some other players of interest, Russell Knox in 8 rounds and Phil Mickelson in 6 rounds.

From 2007-2015…

39 players (42 times) have managed to play holes 15-17 bogey-free in the same week. Graeme McDowell (twice) and Keegan Bradley (3 times) are the only 2 players to accomplish this feat on multiple occasions.

Brendan Steele has played 20 total rounds at PGA National. In his career on the Bear Trap, he’s made 45 pars, 12 bogeys, and 3 double bogeys+. He holds the record for most rounds played without recording a birdie on this 3-hole stretch. Here is the list of most rounds played without making a birdie on the “Bear Trap” between 2007-’15:

Player                          Pars   Bogeys  Doubles   Rounds
Brendan Steele           45         12            3             20
Webb Simpson           17          4             3              8  
Robert Gamez              17         4             3              8
Eric Axley                     15          7             2              8
Phil Mickelson            14          3             1              6
Adam Scott                 10          3             5              6
Those in bold are playing this week

Ryan Palmer…

has played the Bear Trap at a combined 31 over par in his 24 rounds at PGA National Champion Course. Since 2007, 370 of 430 players (86%) are over par on the Bear Trap in their respective careers. 26% of all players have career scores of 10 over par or worse on these 3 holes combined (112 total players).

Player                           Score           Rounds
Ryan Palmer                +31                  24
Briny Baird                    +29                  20
John Senden                +24                 24
Woody Austin                +24                 18
Chris DiMarco               +24                 13
David Duval                   +23                 14
Anthony Kim                 +22                  18
Stewart Cink                +21                  20
Ben Curtis                     +21                  18
Chris Couch                  +20                  14
Boo Weekley                +20                  14
Carl Pettersson           +19                   30
Brendon De Jonge      +19                   28
Also some others in this week’s field
Johnson Wagner         +18                   22
Brendan Steele            +18                   20
Ken Duke                     +18                   18
Adam Scott                  +18                    6
Those in this year’s field in Bold

Here are some highlights of each of the holes in the “Bear Trap”

The 15th hole…
Since 2007, 468 balls have been hit in the water. The most was in 2010 with 77. The fewest was 37 in 2007. The player to hit the ball in the water the most is Briny Baird with 7. He isn’t in the tournament so he could be caught by either Johnson Wagner, Jason Dufner or Ernie Els who have hit it in the water 6 times.
Since the event has been played in 2007, nobody has ever make a hole in one on the hole, the closet to the pin in Chad Collins who in the second round in 2015 hit it 2 inches away
Padraig Harrington has played it the best in 5 under in 18 rounds. Next up is Daniel Summerhays who is 4 under in 16 rounds.
The 16th hole…
Ernie Els and James Driscoll have played the hole the best at 5 under, Els in 26 rounds and Driscoll in 14 rounds. Next up is Vaughn Taylor at 4 under in 22 rounds. Most over par is Ryan Palmer and Jesper Parnevik at 13 over. Palmer has done it in 24 rounds, Parnevik in 13 rounds. Next up is Billy Andrade and D.A. Points at 10 over.
The 17th hole
Since 2008, 300 balls have been hit in the water. The most was in 2001 with 65. The fewest was 10 in 2010. Since the event has been played in 2007, there has never been a hole in one on it. The players that have done the best on it is David Lingmerth and Ian Poulter both at 3 under, followed by Freddie Jacobson, Russell Henley, Russell Knox and Daniel Berger at 2 under. The players that have played the hole the worst are Brendon de Jonge and Anthony Kim, both at 14 over. Next up is Tim Herron, Richard S. Johnson and Brian Davis at 12 under.

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Tuesday, February 23rd

10pm

Draft Kings for this week…

Everybody loves it, for just a quarter up to $5,300, anyone can pick six guys and play in the Draft Kings games.  Each week they have a hundreds of different games, this week David and I are in the $100k Hybrid, which had a entry of $3.  It’s a game that will have just over 38,000 players entered, with first place paying out $10,000.  The game pays out the top 7,800 finishing positions with last place doubling your money with a $6 return.

I am also entered in the $15K back 9 game which has a entry of $9.  I personally like this game even though it’s more money and only pays out $1,200 for first place.  The reason I like it is because there are only 1,916 players in the game, with the top 422 finishing positions getting paid with last place doubling my money to $9.

I personally like the smaller games and think your overall odds are best.

So here is David and my teams,

first David’s lineup:

  • Adam Scott – $11,000
  • Zach Johnson – $8,800
  • Brendan Steel – $8,300
  • Ian Poulter – $7,700
  • Charles Howell III – $7,500
  • Stewart Cink – $6,000

David was $100 under the salary cap.

Here is David with the reason for his picks for this week:

I often go with lineups that are top-heavy with two or three high-priced players balanced by a couple of low-end players who I see as good value. This time I took a different route, going heavy on upper-mid-level players with the goal of having most or all of them make the cut. Had too many missed cuts last week!

  • Adam Scott – Hoping his T2 last week shows he is primed for a good year.
  • Zach Johnson – Steady player with a reasonable price tag this week.
  • Brendan Steele – He’s been making cuts this year, but needs to play better in the final round and I think he can
  • Ian Poulter – Probably should have won the Honda last year if not for too many water balls.
  • Charles Howell lll – Had a good West Coast Swing, except for the Northern Trust.
  • Stewart Cink – There’s still some life in the 42-year-old.

Here is Sal’s lineup for this week:

  • Patrick Reed – $10,600
  • Branden Grace – $10,300
  • Luke Donald – $8,600
  • Jamie Donaldson – $7,000
  • Adam Hadwin – $6,800
  • Brendon De Jonge – $6,400

My strategy is a bit different than David’s.  The golden key each week is to have all six players make the cut, if you do that your halfway home to finishing in the money.  So I look for players with clean records at the Honda, making the cut is important.  I also look for players that have a streak of making cuts going back to the Sony.

Second important item, I look for guys that make a lot of birdies, that’s what makes you points and is important.

This week is hard because my top picks are Rory Mcilory, Rickie Fowler, Patrick Reed, Phil Mickelson and Russell Knox.  All of them are in the high price range, the lowest being Knox at just $9,700.

  • Of the six I pick Reed first because at $10,600 he offers the lowest price for a top-notch player.  Last year he finished T-7th in this event and in three starts has never missed a cut.  For the year he was runner-up at Hyundai and T-6th at Pebble, his last start.  Only blemish is withdrawing from the Farmers, give him a pass because the weather was terrible.
  • Next up is Branden Grace who I think is a hidden gem.  His price is high at $10,300 but in his last six starts going back to WGC-HSBC, his worst finish was T-8th and in his last start at Qatar Masters he won.  So I like his chances for this week.
  • Next up is Luke Donald, who has finished in the top-ten in his three starts at PGA National.  Overall in this event he has a win and a runner-up so that sways me to him.  On the west coast he played four events and did miss one cut in Palm Springs and really didn’t fare well his best finish was T-26th.  But he does make cuts and in his last two Honda starts in 2014 and ’15 averaged 15 birdies so he will get me points.
  • My fourth pick is another European sleeper, Jamie Donaldson.  Last year he finished 6th and in three starts averages 13 birdies an event.  The big disadvantage on him is back in January he almost lost his left pinky in a chainsaw accident.  Yes this is a problem, and in three starts he has missed two cuts, but he finished T-54th at the Northern Trust which gives me some confidence.
  • My fifth pick was Adam Hadwin, who is a bargain at $6,800.  He finished T-31st last year.  On the west coast swing he played five times, making the cut all five times and finishing T-6th in Palm Springs.  For the year he has averaged making close to 17 birdies a tournament, a pretty good haul.
  • For my last pick I didn’t have much money left, only $6,500.  So it was important to find someone that makes lot’s of cuts and lot’s of birdies.  I found Brendon de Jonge at $6,400 fitting the bill.  He has made the cut in five of his last six Honda starts and had a T-9th in 2010.  In his last four Honda starts he averages making 13 birdies an event which is good.  His black mark is making cuts this year, in five west coast starts he only made two cuts, finishing T-33rd at Sony and T-51st at Phoenix.  So it’s a bit of a gamble, but there wasn’t that much left to pick from, it was a toss-up between him and Retief Goosen.

So check back with us on Monday morning and see how David and I did with our picks.

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1:00pm

The defender…

Padraig Harrington is playing better than he was entering last year’s Honda when he had missed four of his last five cuts before finding the magic. This time, he’s made four cuts in the five times he’s teed it up in 2016, with a T-6th at the Hyundai TofC. For that matter, it’s also better than he played after last year’s Honda. He had only one finish better than T42 the rest of the way last year, so the Honda marked only a one-week return to form. Harrington is cautiously optimistic heading into the week, telling Steve Waters of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel, “I haven’t been getting into contention like I would like to, but having won down the stretch at the Honda, I know if I get there, I could do it.”

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Several players are testing…

the limits of endurance by following up playing the last six events on the West Coast Swing with a cross-country trip to make the Honda Classic their seventh straight week of action. Tyrone Van Aswegen is riding a nice streak with four straight made cuts including two top-20s, but will he run out of gas? The same goes for rookie Mark Hubbard, who has made five of six cuts. Si Woo Kim got off to a great start with top-10s in his first two events of 2016; he’s had diminishing returns since with finishes of T18-T67-T35-MC, but he keeps grinding. Rookie Brett Stegmaier, who had a strong fall of 2015, hasn’t been so good in 2016, making just two of six cuts. Like the others, he’s not qualified for next week’s WGC-Cadillac Championship, and apparently doesn’t want to waste a week where he is eligible to play.  For those wondering, this is the last tournament to get into the field for next week at Doral.

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12:30

Is he for real?…

A week after shooting a 60 at the AT&T Pebble Beach, where he finished T-17th, Sung Kang put together a T-8th finish at the Northern Trust at Riviera. He’s in the field at the Honda Classic, but the question is has he really turned a corner or did he just have a couple of hot weeks? Kang missed the cut in his first three 2016 starts. He’s back on tour for a second go-round this season after being a member in 2011 and 2012 and losing his card.

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12:35

Does anyone care about Tiger anymore?…

You bet they do, that is the reason so many stories are being written on his health the last couple of weeks.

Woods is the Howard Hughes of the PGA Tour.  You only see him when he wants you to see him, you only know what Tiger wants you to know.  This trait has been a part of Tiger even before he turned pro in 1996 and I don’t think he will ever change.  I can understand he wants to protect his image and privacy but a lot of times he hasn’t been very forthright on things.  So it’s only natural that things are starting to be written that could be true or maybe not true.

Woods never learned the lesson in 2010 that no matter what, some parts of the media will do anything to get the story, so in the long run it’s best to just say the truth instead of having folks scramble around to get the “real story”.  A lot is being written that Woods rehab is not going very well.  At the Merchandise show last month in Orlando, I ran into a friend that does have connections in the Woods family and he told me that Woods was in terrible shape, that he has problems in simple things like playing with his kids (I couldn’t get a date on when Tiger was in this condition, it could of been as far back as Christmas, again a rumor that nobody can say for sure).  Now according to Mark Steinberg this is false, but again we really don’t know what to believe.  When my friend told me about Tiger’s condition I left it at that with him, frankly it’s a shame that Tiger just can’t travel down the road from his Jupiter home to the press room at the Honda and tell us how he is doing, no matter if he could run a marathon or is having problems just walking.  He has millions of fans who would really like to know the real story from his mouth.  In my own mind I don’t think we will see Tiger playing golf until way after the Ryder Cup.  But again I am just like the rest with a wait and see attitude.

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12:30

Monday Qualifying…

Many may not realize it but just about every week on the PGA Tour the Monday before the tournament there is a tournament in which around 156 players tee it up for four spots in the week’s event.  This week was no different as 160 players teed it up at Mayacoo Lakes Country Club.  It took an extra day to finish a playoff between Chris Baker and Cameron Percy before Baker joined Tom Hoge, Darron Stiles and Mark Blakefield into the Honda.

What intrigues me are the other folks that don’t qualify, there are lot’s of stories.  Little do people know that past champions Mark Calcavecchia and Jesper Parnevik tried, Calcaveccchia shot 69 while Parnevik shot 71.  Yes past champions of the PGA Tour were in this one day hell-fest, Robert Garrigus won at Disney in 2010, but has fallen on hard times and shot 67 to miss the playoff by a shot.  Other past tour winners include Frank Lickliter, who shot 68 and how about Derek Ernst, he won the 2013 Wells Fargo but was shooting 68 on Monday.  Robert Karlsson won in Europe and has been runner-up twice, but was teeing it up in Monday qualifying and shooting 69.  Another player that shot 69 was Bob Hope champion Jhonattan Vegas.  The list goes on to D.A. Points, Glen Day and Daniel Chopra.  But to show how tough this process is, on Friday Thomas Aiken finished bogey-par at the Northern Trust to miss the cut by a shot, flew cross country and teed it off on Monday at Mayacoo Lakes shooting 67 to miss the playoff by a shot.

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Monday, February 22nd

This week’s Honda Classic… 
will be drastically different than last year, when the players had to deal with weather problems. The combination of thunderstorms and heavy wind caused the event to finish on Monday and was the reason the course played to a 71.83 average (1.83 strokes over par), making it the third hardest course on the PGA Tour in 2015 (behind Chambers Bay and TPC San Antonio).
Historically the course has always played tough. Since first being used in 2007, the course has always averaged over par and only twice has the course not been in the top 10 of the PGA Tour for hardest course of the year. One of the big reasons for the course playing tough is Mother Nature. March is the windiest month of the year and other than a tricked-up course, players have problems when it blows over 15 mph. In 2014 each day was perfect and winds were mild, so that is the reason the course played to a 70.41 average, which was 17th hardest course of the year. So with a good weather report with clear skies and lack of wind, the course will see lower scores. One player that will like that forecast is Phil Mickelson, who is playing well but never seems to play well in the wind.

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How tough is the Bear Trap…
This week players will have to contend with a three-hole stretch, known as the “Bear Trap”. It’s the most famous part of PGA National, holes 15, 16 and 17, two par 3s and a par 4, all with water. It’s been the stage for a lot of drama over the years and always plays a part in determining the winner. Last year the “Bear Trap” was easy on Daniel Berger as he played it in five under (the best of anyone since the tournament went to PGA National) and when Padraig Harrington made double bogey on 17 in the final round, he had to make a final-hole birdie just to get into the playoff. Despite playing so well on the “Bear Trap” Berger’s luck ran out in the playoff, as he made bogey on 16 and was lucky that Harrington also made bogey. But when Berger hit his ball in the water at 17 and made double, it gave the tournament to Harrington.
*Some stats on the final round at PGA National from last year, if you throw in the par 4, 14th hole that was the second hardest hole on the course, the four holes played 358 over par.
*From 2007-2015, the “Bear Trap” ranked as the fifth-toughest, three-hole stretch on the PGA Tour of courses that have been played in each of the last nine years. The field has played that stretch of holes in a combined +2.571 over par since 2007. They played the remaining 15 holes in +3.535. It has accounted for 40 percent of all the triple bogeys or worse.
*Since 2007, 325 of 430 players have hit at least one ball in the water on the “Bear Trap,” for a grand total of 974 balls in the water.

Here is how the winners in past years have played the “Bear Trap:…
Year-Winner                       Hole 15      Hole 16    Hole 17     Total
2007-Mark Wilson                Even           Even        Even         Even
2008-Ernie Els                       +1               -1            Even        Even
2009-Y.E. Yang                     Even           Even          +1            +1
2010-Camilo Villegas            +1               -1            Even         Even
2011-Rory Sabbatini             -1                -1             +1             -1
2012-Rory McIlroy                -2               Even           -1            -3
2013-Michael Thompson     Even            +1            Even         +1
2014-Russell Henley            +2                -1              -1           Even
2015-Padraig Harrington      Even            -2             +1            -1

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Some odds and ends from the Northern Trust

And the winner is….
Bubba Watson. Bubba came into the Northern Trust with a poor record when holding the 54-hole lead, winning only twice in nine previous times in the lead or a share of it.  As good a player as he is, in some ways he is a bit like a roller coaster and when he made that bogey at 13, it looked like another lost cause. The last time in was in that position was at the 2014 Memoria, where he had the lead only to bogey 14 and then make double at 15. He finished with three pars to miss the playoff by a shot. But this time, Bubba showed resiliency on Sunday when he hit a great tee shot on the par 3, 16th to 5 feet and made the putt for a birdie. He then smacked a 334-yard drive on the par-5 17th and two-putted for a birdie.

When Bubba wins like he did with that great finish, it gives us some cause to think he could have a great year. But it should be remembered that he’s one of the most inconsistent of the top players, especially in majors other than the Masters. In the last two years, he has missed the cut in four non-Masters majors (and in his career has only two major top-10s outside the Masters, a T-5th in the 2007 U.S. Open and a 2nd in the 2010 PGA Championship).

Bubba’s age…
People tend to forgot that Watson was a late bloomer. In this age of youngsters doing so well, Watson was 27 before he got his PGA Tour card and was 31 when he won for the first time on the PGA Tour. Watson has now won nine times and it puts him high up the list of guys of the last 25 years to win for the first time in their 30s and go on to win a lot of times, although he has a long way to go before catching Vijay Singh:
Late bloomers on the PGA Tour
Wins   Player                 Age of first win                         Tournament
34       Vijay Singh         30 years, 3 months, 22 days    1993 Barclays
14       Kenny Perry       30 years, 9 months, 9 days      1991 Memorial
13       David Toms        30 years, 6 months, 9 days      1997 John Deere
9         Bubba Watson   31 years, 7 months, 22 days     2010 Travelers

Bubba has done well since 2010…
Interesting to note that since the start of 2010, Watson is second on the list of most PGA Tour wins, just behind Rory McIlroy:
The most wins on the PGA Tour since the start of 2010:
11 – Rory McIlroy
9 – Bubba Watson
8 – Tiger Woods
7 – Dustin Johnson
7 – Jordan Spieth
7 – Jason Day
7 – Brandt Snedeker
7 – Justin Rose

One other thing, it’s interesting to see how much Riviera Country Club aligns itself with Augusta National. Look at how many players since 1990 have won both the Northern Trust and Masters:

Winner         Year won   Northern Trust        Masters 
Bubba Watson                     2014, ’16            2012, ‘14
Phil Mickelson                     2008, ’09         2004, ’06 & ‘10
Adam Scott                              2005                  2013
Mike Weir                             2003, ’04               2003
Nick Faldo                               1997           1989, ’90 & ‘96
Craig Stadler                           1996                  1982
Fred Couples                      1990, ’92                1993

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And the runner-ups….
Adam Scott… 

has to be kicking himself. After his great start of eagle, par, birdie, birdie Scott was cruising along until he made double bogey at 8. After making birdie at 11, he dropped shots at 14 and 15 to lose the tournament. Yes he finished second but only with birdies at 17 and then a chip-in birdie at 18. In a way, Scott lost the tournament with his putter, missing five putts inside five feet during the week, including a crucial three in the final round. That fits his label of “the best player in golf who can’t putt.” On the other hand, Scott was great from long range all week, making five putts of longer than 20 feet and six more in the 10-to-20-foot range, so that even with his short misses, he ranked 16th in strokes gained putting. In his start on Sunday, he made 104 feet, 8 inches of putts on the first four holes, but only 37 feet, 5 inches of putts on the remaining 14 holes.

Many feel that the ban of anchored putting is a killer blow for Scott, but that’s not really true. Even with the long putter, he wasn’t great, ranking 158th in strokes gained putting last year and 55th the year before that, winning only once in those years. So, he might not be much worse with the short putter, and he showed some good signs at Riviera, though his problems from short-range are troubling. Scott is far from through as a player, but it can be said that unless he finds an exorcist for his putter the flat stick will probably keep him from being the Hall of Fame player that many think he could be.

This week Scott is playing at the Honda for only the third time in his career. Again the course will be perfect for his game, if he can have a decent week on the greens.

Jason Kokrak…
For the fourth time in his career Kokrak went into the back nine with a chance of winning and just couldn’t deliver. In the case of Sunday, it was a combination of a bogey at 15 and then Watson making birdies at 16 and 17. Kokrak shot a final round 68 for his second career runner-up finish but was only even par on the back nine. For Kokrak it was his first time playing in the last group on Sunday on the PGA Tour. As he said, he fell short on Sunday but gained a ton of experience. He learned how to control his emotions and he learned off his playing partner Bubba Watson. Even though he lost, the experience will help him down the road in similar situations. Jason heads to a part of the schedule in which he has seen some success at the Valspar and Arnold Palmer. So he should be a player to look for in the coming weeks, just remember in his last two starts at the Palmer he finished T-6th and 4th.
Helene Elliott in the L.A. times talked about how Kokrak’s performance shows he belongs with the big boys. Still, he has to do this a bit more before making him a top player. Kokrak is one of the tour’s longest hitters and has a good number of top-25 finishes, but he misses a lot of cuts and only has four top-five and 11 top-tens in 111 starts so he needs to be a bit more in contention on the final nine before we can anoint him as a player that’s in the upper echelon of the PGA Tour.

Dustin Johnson…
he has to be kicking himself again. Last year he lost the Northern Trust in a playoff and in 2014 he lost to Bubba by two shots, the same as on Sunday. Over the course of his last 12 rounds at Riviera he is 32 under par and has now finished six times out of nine starts in the top 10. In the case of last week, he just didn’t put things together in a final round that was marred with three bogeys. Johnson will take the week off before defending his title at the WGC-Cadillac where he will be a big favorite.

Rory McIlroy…
When he made eagle on the first hole on Sunday, it looked like he was off to the races. McIlroy ended his round with a birdie, but it would be the only one wedged with seven bogeys and nine pars. His 75 matched his worst final round in his PGA Tour career outside of the majors, where he had his three worst final rounds. When asked afterwards what he thought, he said his tee-to-green came felt good and just one of those days he couldn’t get anything going. In talking with Jill Painter of the L.A. Daily News, McIlroy said he enjoyed his week and will be back to Riviera. He also made it a point to say how much he loved staying in Santa Monica and having the beach there, bet that is a good part of the reason he will be back. McIlroy will be at the Honda, a place in which he has mixed results, including a win. As for the week, he was great from tee-to-green, but again his putter had problems, especially in the 4-to-8-foot range in which he only made 14 of 21. He actually putted reasonably well in the first three rounds, before losing 3.011 strokes on the greens in the final round.

 

Comments

  1. Well done Sal! This is an excellant addition to your site. I would love to hear how you feel the weekly “Key Fantasy Stats” has lived up to your expectations or your general thoughts on it’s progression.
    All the Best.

  2. I like it because it gives us another reason to look at the players. Each course has keys to playing it well, this chart shows the players that best fit the profile. Of course we all know that these guys are really good and sometimes can overcome a course, but this gives all fantasy players another item to check players on.

  3. Bravo Sal !! This is EXACTLY the type of information that DFS players need, especially when news breaks Mon-Wed that could effect our lineups! Remember Webb Simpson last year at Greenbrier?? Reports were that he hurt himself playing with his kids and he tanked it in a tourney he was a “horse” in? Cost a lot of DFS’ers

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