BlogWGC-Cadillac Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

Have to think that this week will be a bit uncomfortable for Tim Finchem and all the boys from Ponte Vedra.  As we have seen for the last couple of months, anything is possible with Donald Trump.  No matter what happens he is going to speak his mind and say what fits his fancy for the day.  That doesn’t happen on the PGA Tour who could be the most controlled organization in sports.  Finchem needs it that way because he has hundreds of sponsors that are paying millions of dollars to sponsor the PGA Tour.  Poet John Lydgate wrote these words that was later adapted by President Abraham Lincoln, “…you can’t please all of the people all of the time”.  You see for Tim Finchem those words don’t exist, he pleases all of the people all of the time that do business with the PGA Tour.

In the world of politics, most of those that run and then make it into office have a 50-50 love, hate relationship with their constituents.  You can basically say the same for Mr. Trump and that is the problem for Tim Finchem this week.  Trump is such a lightning rod who knows what could be said or done this week that will anger one of the many sponsors the PGA Tour is doing business with.  Could Trump’s politics be different than Cadillac’s president Johan de Nysschen?  Or could Trump upset those that run next weeks event sponsor Valspar or last week’s sponsor Honda.  Finchem may be in control of everything the PGA Tour is involved with, but he can’t control Trump which could spell problems.

Many feel the PGA tour will move this event next year.  Be a shame after playing 53 straight events at Doral, be a shame for Trump who has spent a small fortune redoing every part of Doral and bringing the course and the resort back from the dead.  But another problem for Finchem, let’s say that he decides for the best of the PGA Tour, it’s players and fans to not be involved with Trump, what happens if Trump does become President.  We know that the Donald has a memory of an elephant and you would have to think that if Finchem did embarrass Trump by moving away this event from Trump’s crown jewels, who knows what the Donald may do to repay Finchem and the gang.

You get it, Mr. Finchem and company will be earning their money and only hopping the week passes with no problems.

Things you need to know about the WCG-Cadillac championship:

• We are back to Trump National Doral in the third year of the renovation and it will be interesting to see if the course plays as hard as it did the two previous years.  Of course wind is the key, on days that it blows this course is the hardest in the world. But on dry, perfect days the pros can go low.
• The second World Golf Championship of the 2016, the WCG-Cadillac championship will be a 72-hole, stroke-play event with a limited field of 74 players.  It will include the top-50 players in the World Golf Ranking plus the top-30 from the FedEx Cup point list from 2015, the top-10 of the 2015-16 FedEx Cup standings, the top-20 from the final 2015 Race To Dubai and the top-10 from the 2016 Race to Dubai standings.  Also the top-2 from the 2013 Japan Golf Tour, Australasian Tour, Sunshine Tour and Asian Tour order of merit not otherwise exempt.
• There will be no cut in the 72-hole event, which has an $9.5 million purse with the winner receiving $1.62 million.
• This is only the second time that this event has been played at the same course back-to-back since the first two years at Valderamma.   Doral was the site of the Ford Championship of Doral between 1962 – 2006 and is now the home of the WGC-CA Championship.  In 2011 Cadillac took over sponsorship of this tournament.

Course information:

The Blue Monster at Trump National Doral

Doral, Fla.

• 7,543 yards     Par 36-36–72
• Doral is a public golf course, part of the Trump Doral resort.  In 2015 Doral was the 7th hardest course on the PGA Tour playing to an average of 73.24.  In 2014 the Blue Monster was the 3rd hardest course on the PGA Tour playing to a 73.852 average. In 2013, just before the major changes were made to the course, the Blue Monster was the 31 hardest course on the PGA Tour playing to a 71.354 average.
• Doral was designed by Dick Wilson, with some help from Robert Von Hagge, and opened in 1962.  It has held a PGA Tour event on it every year since 1962.  In it’s first decade on the PGA Tour it was called one of the toughest courses in the world, thus it’s nickname “The Blue Monster”. Figures showed that it was one of the toughest courses on the PGA Tour in it’s first three decades, but a combination of better equipment, agronomy, players getting physically in shape and years with a lack of wind brought the scoring average down at Doral.
• After the 1996 event, Doral officials closed the course and Raymond Floyd went about toughing and bringing the bite back to Doral.  He added 186 yards, put in an additional 18 bunkers, changed the grass from Rye to Bernuda and changed the design of the greens, basically in the interest of bring the teeth back to the event.  The renovation did just that.  In the years after the redesign, winds were tougher and scores went up to the levels that players didn’t like the combination of tough course with high winds complaining that the course was tricked up.  With marquee players not coming back, officials went through another renovation after the 2000 tournament, this time eliminating ten bunkers and softening up the greens.  In 2003 another 166 yards was added and in 2008 the greens were renovated with TifEagle.
• With the passing of time, Doral again had another facelift after the 2013 event was played, this one probably the biggest of the bunch.  Gil Hanse was brought in and $18 million spent as 17 of the 18 holes were completely redone.  To honor the legendary 18th hole, it was the only hole not touched in the renovation.  Water comes into play more, with new hazards being placed at 1, 11, 14,15 and 16 and existing hazards coming more into play at 5 and 7.  Another 147 yards has been added and the course will play at 7,481, 542 yards more than in 1996 the year before it’s first renovation.

Here are some of the major changes to the course:

• The lengthening of the 1st hole – 2013 scorecard yardage – 529 vs. 2014 yardage – 572. There is also water in play to the right of the first green.
• The par 3, 9th hole has a number of new tee boxes including a back tee that can have it play as long as 200 yards. The green itself has moved closer to the 18th green which has created a new amphitheater of grandstands surrounding both the 18th and 9th greens.
• The 10th tee has moved significantly to players’ left as part of the expansion of the new driving range. This makes for a much different tee shot to carry over water on the 10th tee. Additionally, the 10th green was moved back to lengthen the hole to 614 yards.
• Some of the most exciting changes have happened on the finishing stretch. The par 3, 15th green for instance was a mostly non-descript 175-yard par 3. It is now a shorter hole at 153 yards, but much more water is in play with a peninsula green as part of the design.
• The 16th hole was also shortened from 372 yards to 341. Players have a better view of the green with a number of trees removed, but water now comes closer to the green making this a true risk-reward hole.
• The big question will be, how much harder will the course play this year?  Last year we saw a hard course that had some wind, the year before we saw a really hard course because the wind was up.  A big lesson was learned in the Floyd renovation in 1997.  That the true toughness of the course lies in Mother Nature, when the wind blows the course is very difficult.  So when there is no wind, the course is very easy.  What Floyd did was make a tougher course by adding bunkers and making the greens very hard.  In no wind, the course was tough and fair but in high winds the course was very unfair and impossible.  So that is the secret in any redesign, you have to make creative changes to not toughen the holes but make them play differently that takes a lot of thought to play.  On the whole the players liked the Hanse changes, they didn’t feel the course was tricked up to bring the scores up.  So maybe the folks at Doral have gotten it right.

Here is a new feature we have, a look at key stats that are important for those playing at Trump Doral:

This is based on the most important stats for Trump National Doral, based on data from last years WGC-Cadillac Championship, and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2016. What we do is take there rank for each stat and then add up the four catagories.
The scoring average of the field at Doral in 2015 was 73.24, so with par being 72 that means the average score was a shot and a quarter over par, making Doral the 6th hardest course to score on in 2015 (only five courses played harder). It’s also important to see how the weather played a factor, last year weather was pretty good and winds were high three of the four days, but nothing to cause havoc. So that is the reason the scores went down compared to 2014 when the scoring average was 73.85 as high winds took it’s toll. This year the weather will be good on Thursday and Friday, with showers on Saturday and then partly cloudy on Sunday. Winds are predicted to be around 10 mph, with it growing to 13 mph on Sunday so it will be pretty good and I can see scores inch down a bit

In looking at the stats for Doral last year Greens hit, Driving Accuracy and scambling are important. Last we pick birdie or better percentage because last year it was near impossible to make a lot of birdies and eagles. Last year 13 courses were harder than Doral in making lot’s of birdies and eagles.

So how did the winner Dustin Johnson become victorious last year? In our key stats he ranked T-1st in greens in regulation, T-41st in strokes Fairway Accuracy and T-42nd in scrambling. He was T-5th in birdie or better percentage as ranked T-7th in making the most birdies.
*Greens in Regulation: Since the greens average 6,600 square feet normally they would be easy to hit. But since there is a lot of undulation, hitting it to the perfect place is important. Last year on the PGA Tour, the greens of Doral were the 8th hardest to hit. This has been the norm for Doral, in 2014 it ranked 5th, but in 2013 13th, in 2012 13th and 10th in 2011. So a player that hits lots of greens will have an advantage.

*Driving Accuracy: Percentage of fairways hit, last year Doral finished 5th in this stat and was 1st in 2014.

*Scrambling: No matter how good your game is, missing greens always happens so it’s important to salvage par. Last year Doral ranked 4th hardest in scrambling so it’s a hard stat for players on this course.

*Birdie or Better Percentage: The course is so demanding that making a lot of birdies and eagles aren’t possible. So players that are able to make a lot will do well on this course which ranked 15th in this stat on tour in 2015.

Field off of this year’s PGA Tour stats

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

For the rest of the players, hit this link:

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the WGC-Cadillac Championship

Key stat for the winner:

In 2014 players saw a new course as 17 of the 18 holes has been altered and the fairways widen a bit.  All of the greens were redone and the course played totally different from previous years.  The change played a key part in making the course harder as it was 2 and a half shots harder between 2013 and 2014.  In past years the Blue Monster is only a monster in windy conditions, in 2014 and last year was like that as there were winds up to 36 mph.  So the winds played a key role in the courses scoring average.

Here is a chart that shows the history of wind at Doral and how it’s changed the scoring average of the course:

Year  Round          Wind Conditions        Day Scoring Average   Rank on Tour

2015    1                     15 to 25 MPH                       73.356                 T-9th hardest

2015    2                      6 to 12 MPH                       73.466                    7th hardest

2015    3                    10 to 20 MPH                       72.548                      11th

2015    4                     15 to 25 MPH                      73.589                  2nd hardest

2015  total                                                               73.238                7th hardest

2014    1      15 to 20 MPH, gusts to 30           73.809          4th hardest

2014    2      15 to 20 MPH, gusts to 36           76.000          1st hardest

2014    3              5 to 10 MPH                         72.574             12th

2014    4              5 to 10 MPH                         73.015              8th

2014  total                                                         73.852          3rd hardest

2013    1              8 to 15 MPH                         70.754          37th hardest

2013    2              6 to 12 MPH                         70.708             35th

2013    3             10 to 20 MPH                         71.400             27th

2013    4             15 to 25 MPH                         72.554             17th

2013  total                                                         71.354             31st

2012    1       15 to 25 MPH, gusts to 31         72.662             18th

2012    2             10 to 15 MPH                       69.919             42nd

2012    3             10 to 15 MPH                       70.110             45th

2012    4             15 to 25 MPH                       71.861             24th

2012  total                                                        71.137             38th

2011    1             10 to 20 MPH                        70.727             42nd

2011    2             10 to 20 MPH                       72.379             17th

2011    3             10 to 15 MPH                       70.682             33rd

2011    4             10 to 15 MPH                       72.121             19th

2011  total                                                       71.477             34th

2010    1             25 to 30 MPH                    72.574             19th

2010    2             15 to 25 MPH                    70.897             36th

2010    3             10 to 15 MPH                    71.603             21st

2010    4             12 to 22 MPH                    69.868             39th

2010  total                                                    71.235             34th

2009    1              5 to 18 MPH                 70.600             44th

2009    2             10 to 18 MPH                 70.519             42nd

2009    3             10 to 20 MPH                 70.810             33rd

2009    4             12 to 20 MPH                 71.734             21st

2009  total                                                 70.915             39th

2008    1             10 to 20 MPH                 70.899             43rd

2008    2              6 to 16 MPH                  72.329             25th

2008    3             10 to 20 MPH                 70.179             45th

2008    4              8 to 24 MPH                  70.727             38th

2008  total                                                 71.038             40th

2007    1      20 to 25 MPH , gusts to 30  73.397             13th

2007    2             15 to 25 MPH                 72.110             28th

2007    3             15 to 25 MPH                 72.562             15th

2007    4             15 to 25 MPH                 73.944              8th

2007  total                                                 73.000             16th

In looking at the long range weather for the week there will be winds of between 10 to 13 mph on everyday.  On Thursday and Friday temperatures will be 83 to 86 with no rain.  Saturday is the bad day, 50% chance of rain with most of it going away for Sunday’s final round.  Temperature’s will be in the low 80s over the weekend.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

• Solid shotmakers, since Doral demands ball control, especially if there is any wind.  In the last 17 years, televe of the winners at Doral (including the Ford Championship in Doral) have been in the top four in greens hit.  2009 was the first major change as Phil Mickelson ranked T33rd in this stat which is the highest any winner at Doral has done in greens hit.  In 2010 Ernie Els continue the trend as he was T2nd in greens hit, but in 2011 Nick Watney was T12th while in 2012 Justin Rose was T17th and Tiger Woods was T6th in 2013. In 2015 Patrick Reed ranked T28th and last year Dustin Johnson was T-1st.
• Unimportant stat: Those that play well not only in Florida, but on Bermuda grasses will do well this week.  Interesting to note that since 1990 all the winners except for 1997 & 1999 champion Steve Elkington, 2008 champion Geoff Ogilvy, 2009 winner Phil Mickelson, 2011 winner Nick Watney, 2013 winner Justin Rose and 2014 winner Patrick Reed either grew up in Florida or live there.  Elkington and Ogilvy both grew up in Australia with Bermuda grass while Mickelson grew up in the San Diego area while Watney grew up in Northern California and Rose grew up in England and South Africa while Reed grew up in Texas.
• Interesting to point out that since 1983 every winner except for Patrick Reed, Rocco Mediate and Bill Glasson were over 29 years old with four winners in their 40s.  The average age of the 17 winners at Doral is 34 and a half years old as last year’s winner Dustin Johnson was 30 years old
• One more item on this, the PGA Tour has held a tournament at Doral since 1962.  In the 53 years there have been 38 different champion with only seven of them born in the Northeast or Northcentral United States.  Since 1990 there have only been three, all of them live in Florida today, the last was Jim Furyk in 2000.  So it only makes sense that the champion will be from a region of the Southeast, the South and Southwest of the United States, along with Australia, Great Britain and South Africa.  Since 1990, 18 of the 25 champions have had ties to the state of Florida. (Northeastearn or Northcentral winners)
• Par 5s aren’t a push over, but have been conquered by the champions at Doral.  Since 1997 they have averaged playing them in 9-under par.  Woods played the par 5s in 2007 at 10-under while in 2008 Ogilvy played them in 6 under and Mickelson played them in 7 under in 2009.  In 2010 Ernie Els played them in 12 under par while Watney was 11 under on then in 2011, Justin Rose was 11 under on then in 2012, Tiger was 9 under in 2013 the same number that Patrick Reed was in 2014.  Last year Dustin Johnson was 6 under par.
• Don’t be surprised to see a non-American winner this week.  Between 1962 and 1989 no international player won at Doral, but since then 11 of the 26 have been international winners.