DraftKings Overview
Wed May 24th, 2016
DraftKings got better this week because they added games for the European Tour. So I thought it be nice to talk about some of my observations on playing the game and some hints that could help you win some money.
I’ve been playing Draft Kings for about a year now, mostly in their big games with big payouts. This week there are two, first the PGA $250K Birdie game and then the PGA $300K Dogleg game. The $250K game cost $3 to play and has a first place payout of $20,000 while the 300K game cost $33 to play and has a first place check of $50,000.
On paper, this seems great until you notice the number of entries. The $250K game has over 95,000 entries and pays up to 19,550 places while the 300K game has 10,000 entries and pays up to 2,120. The norm for DraftKings games is a return to a fifth of those in the field. So that is our first problem, the higher payouts only happen in games that have a lot of players in them, yes the reward is great but the more that enter, the lower your odds come.
I feel that am a pretty good picker of players, but in the year that I have played in this high entree big games, the biggest payout I have seen is $60. So you wonder why I play them? Just like everyone that goes out a get a two dollar Powerball ticket when the prize climbs to over $300 million, you just hope that you are lucky enough that week. Hey, it’s only a three dollar a week gamble with DraftKings, and I do enjoy the challenge. So how is one to make a profit playing golf games on DraftKings?
It’s all about the math and numbers; you enter games with a lot of folks your odds decrease. Each week DraftKings has a couple of hundred games with a mix of entry fees of a quarter, up to one game that has an entry fee of $1,060 and a field of three players. Only one player of the three wins and he gets $3,000 which means he just about triples his money. But for most of you the entry fee of $1,060 is a bit steep. I stick to games between $3 and $10. Now and then for majors, I will do the big $27 game that has a first place payout of a million dollars, but again it’s like buying that Powerball ticket that pays out $300 million, the odds are not in your favor, but you buy it just in case you get lucky.
Here are some things for you to think about. The most important thing you can do with Draftkings is find the price point that is good for you and a game that has the lowest possible entree level and a good all-around payout.
As an example last week in the 300K birdie game, that had 115,000 entries with a $20,000 first place check, I had the combination of Keegan Bradley (Cut), Tim Herron (74th), Dustin Johnson (T-12th), Steve Marino (T-12th), Gary Woodland (T-12th) and Matt Kuchar (3rd). Pretty good week, five guys making the cut, a top-three finish and four of my six picks in the top-12. I came in 12,045 with a total of 466 points which got me $7. The winner of the $20,000 had a point total of 639.5 with a combination of Steve Marino (T-12th), Colt Knost (T-4th), Bud Cauley (T-4th), Matt Kuchar (3rd), Brooks Koepka (2nd) and the winner Sergio Garcia. Some nice picking. The guy in 2nd won $15,000 had Garcia and Koepka along with Scott Pinckney (T-24th), Gary Woodland (T-12th), Charles Howell III (T-4th) and Robert Garrigus (T-4th). Both players did great, but let’s look at the second place picks. I can see having a combination of Garcia and Koepka, but also picking Pinckney, Howell III, Woodland and Garrigus is a bit of a stretch. But here is the truth in the pudding. Just like a lottery, the more folks that participate, the odds increase that more of the combinations will be taken, thus increasing your chances on winning.
Now let’s go back to my six picks of Bradley, Herron, Dustin Johnson, Steve Marino, Gary Woodland and Kuchar. There was also a PGA $30K Back 9 game that only had 3,833 entries. The cost of that game was $9 but the payouts were good in the middle. First place may have only paid $2,500 but let’s be frank, the odds of you winning first place are slim and none. So with a field just under 4,000 I was looking for something in the top-80. For those that finished 10th, they got $200. For those that finished 80th they got $50. So how did I do? Remember in the big game my 466 points earned me $7, in this game I was 418th and earned $25. The guy in first place in this game earned 604.5 points thanks to having both Garcia and Koepka, along with Charles Howell III, who finished T-4th and then three other players that finished T-18th and higher.
So the point I am making is be realistic in your goals. Remember this, in Football and Baseball 1% of the players win 90% of the money in DraftKings. That’s because those games are true to form statistically. But golf is a different beast since it’s an individual game in which one person is the basis of your bet. It’s hard to understand how that one person will be when he plays. Does he feel super and ready to go out and do great things? Or did that player have a fight with his wife that morning and has his mind elsewhere because he has a small flaw in his swing that needs fixing?
But just like playing in your morning foursome and making those first tee bets, it’s important to look at all of the games and go with the game that gives you a realistic chance of making money. Of course, we want to win, but if you can finish in the top-100, you will win money in the right game. So pick that game that has less than five thousand in it. Of course nothing wrong with placing that $3 on the big game with the big first place check, but be sure also to pick a game that gives you better odds.
People ask me all the time, is it good to pick more than one team? Personally, I don’t like picking more than one team, every now and then I pick two separate teams but what you are doing is playing against yourself. Each additional team you pick, your odds on a return goes down so don’t pick more than two teams and frankly instead of picking six teams, pick just one and place them in six different games to help your odds on winning if one or two players don’t make the cut. In fantasy golf that is the facts of life, picking six guys to make the cut is harder than it looks and most of the time it’s best to find six solid guys instead of picking the top-two favorites and then being left with little money and having to pick guys that struggle to make cuts. Rule of thumb, look for players that have made 80% of their cuts.
Here is a list of those that have done that in 2016, with at least five events played:
Adam Scott has made 11 cuts in 11 events played
Bubba Watson has made 9 cuts in 9 events played
Chris Wood has made 5 cuts in 5 events played
Dustin Johnson has made 11 cuts in 11 events played
Colt Knost has made 16 cuts in 17 events played
Gary Woodland has made 13 cuts in 14 events played
Matt Kuchar has made 13 cuts in 14 events played
Billy Horschel has made 12 cuts in 13 events played
J.B. Holmes has made 10 cuts in 11 events played
Retief Goosen has made 10 cuts in 11 events played
Jason Day has made 9 cuts in 10 events played
Rory McIlroy has made 9 cuts in 10 events played
Sergio Garcia has made 9 cuts in 10 events played
Charl Schwartzel has made 8 cuts in 9 events played
Jamie Donaldson has made 7 cuts in 8 events played
Martin Kaymer has made 6 cuts in 7 events played
Ryan Palmer has made 12 cuts in 14 events played
Scott Piercy has made 12 cuts in 14 events played
Charles Howell III has made 16 cuts in 19 events played
Danny Willett has made 5 cuts in 6 events played
Davis Love III has made 10 cuts in 12 events played
Paul Casey has made 10 cuts in 12 events played
Soren Kjeldsen has made 5 cuts in 6 events played
Tim Wilkinson has made 10 cuts in 12 events played
Jason Dufner has made 14 cuts in 17 events played
Patton Kizzire has made 14 cuts in 17 events played
Francesco Molinari has made 9 cuts in 11 events played
Jordan Spieth has made 9 cuts in 11 events played
Justin Rose has made 9 cuts in 11 events played
Shane Lowry has made 9 cuts in 11 events played
Daniel Berger has made 13 cuts in 16 events played
Daniel Summerhays has made 13 cuts in 16 events played
Justin Thomas has made 13 cuts in 16 events played
Mark Hubbard has made 17 cuts in 21 events played
Branden Grace has made 8 cuts in 10 events played
Kevin Na has made 12 cuts in 15 events played
Patrick Reed has made 12 cuts in 15 events played
Ok, now in doing your picks it’s best to pick guys playing well, on our preview we have a hot index, we also have our player rankings for those playing the best.
This week DraftKings is starting new games on the European Tour, it’s a fun way of playing more games and if you keep up with the European Tour you may have a big advantage on those that don’t know that tour.
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