BlogU.S. Open Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

So it’s back to Oakmont for the ninth time, it’s a traditional course that will be drastically different than last year’s U.S. Open at Chambers Bay.  Let’s just say that there were a lot of great things about Chambers Bay like the weather, the area and the way the championship played out on Sunday in an epic duel between Dustin Johnson the Jordan Spieth.  It will easily be one of the classic U.S. Opens in which a great champion will be crowned.

But let’s face it, the course didn’t live up with greens that were in terrible shape and a course that was impossible for those who paid good money to watch.  Players didn’t like some of the holes and lets faced it, after watching Fox we missed the way NBC had done the U.S. Open the last 20 years.  Many will ask if Chambers Bay will ever hold another U.S. Open, the simple answer is yes, but it’s probably going to be a decade, and many things of the course will have to be changed.  Many forget but in 1965 Bellerive was used and many players hated it.  In 1971 Hazeltine National was a big failure, so much that one player said that they wasted a good piece of farmland to build the course.  The point is, after some changes and 25 years to mature, both courses are big hits.  Later this summer Hazeltine will hold the Ryder Cup and Bellerive will host the PGA Championship in 2018.

The point is that there is a future for Chambers Bay, the Pacific Northwest is great for big-time golf and some time down the road they will get Chambers Bay right, just like they got Bellerive and Hazeltine.

Going to Oakmont is an easy proposition for the USGA, little work went into getting the course ready.  Oakmont is one of those courses that are always in championship mode; the membership loves it that way.

Will we have a classic shootout, time will tell.  Golf is in a great place right now with players like Jordan Spieth, Jason Day and Rory McIlroy.  Add some others like Adam Scott, Bubba Watson, Rickie Fowler, Dustin Johnson and Masters champion Danny Willett the game is fun to watch.

I would say the odds are pretty good that one of these guys wins, but if you look at the U.S. Open a lot of folks won that we didn’t expect.  How about Sam Parks in 1935, nobody knew who he was, and Parks didn’t do much after he won.  Then you have Jack Nicklaus, it’s easy to point to Nicklaus today as the greatest player in the world, but in 1962 he was just a rookie trying to make his mark.  Oakmont was his first professional win and since then there have been many hundreds of victories, still in 1962 he was a bit of a surprise.  Johnny Miller today is a household name, but little was thought of him when he won in 1973.  He had only been a professional for a number of years and didn’t win anything big, until he won the Open that year.  In 1983 Larry Nelson was big, he had won two PGA Championships so it wasn’t a big surprise when he won the U.S. Open.  In 1994 Ernie Els was just like Nicklaus, and Miller, a youngster that was making his mark and when Ernie won it was a start of a big career.  Last is Angel Cabrera; he fit more in the mold of Sam Parks.  He had won in Europe and South America, but not in the United States until he dominated play in 2007.  Now we haven’t mention Tommy Armour, who won in 1927 and Ben Hogan in 1953, they were the biggest names in golf, and it wasn’t a surprise when any of them won.  So the point is, there is no one player that fits the model of “Oakmont Champion.”

Now Oakmont has a lot of history with 16 USGA events held here with only Merion (with 19) holding more.  Oakmont may be the quintessential U.S. Open course.  The club will hold it’s ninth Open, one more than Baltusrol except that club has used three courses, the nine held at Oakmont were on the same course.  Oakland Hills has held 6 U.S. Open’s, the second most of any one course.

Oakmont has played host to eight U.S. Opens, five U.S. Amateurs, three PGA Championships and two U.S. Women’s Open. The 13 total professional majors are more than any other course in America, save for Augusta National.

One last thing about this week that shows more parity.  This year 51 of the 156 players will be U.S. Open rookies.  This is a remarkable number until you realize that in 2014 there were 53 rookies. Both of these are extraordinary numbers.  In the history of the U.S. Open the year with the most first-timers was 86 in 1919.  That was the first Open played after World War I and the field increased in size.  If you look at the most first-timers since World War II, it was 75 in 1948.

Looking at U.S. Opens since 1970 the most first-timers were 53 in 1977, 1980, and 2011 so this year will not have the most rookies.

For those wondering, Last year there were 48 rookies, in 2013 there were 44 rookies at Merion, in 2012 there were 46 first-timers at Olympic and in 2010 there were 50 at Pebble.

Championship information:

The inaugural U.S. Open was slated for September of 1895. However, the Open, as well as the inaugural U.S. Amateur, were delayed due to a scheduling conflict with the more popular sporting event, the America’s Cup yacht races. Finally, the first U.S. Open was played on Oct. 4, 1895, on a nine-hole course at the Newport Golf and Country Club in Newport, Rhode Island. The first U.S. Open was somewhat over-shadowed by the first U.S. Amateur tournament, which was played concurrently at the Newport Golf and Country Club. Its meager field consisted of just 10 professionals and one amateur. Horace Rawlins, the assistant at Newport Golf and Country Club, captured the first U.S. Open. The format for the tournament was 36 holes squeezed into one day, with four trips around the nine-hole course in Newport.

In 1898, the U.S. Open switched to a 72-hole format, two days of 36-holes. For the first few years, the field was routinely riddled with amateurs as well as British and Scottish professionals. The popularity of the event dwindled until Americans began to dominate, starting with John McDermott in 1911. The U.S. Open experienced a dramatic jump in popularity in 1913 when Francis Ouimet, a 20-year-old American amateur, defeated famed British professionals Harry Vardon and Ted Ray in a playoff. Popularity for the U.S. Open began to soar even higher in the early 1920s. In 1922, the U.S. Open sold tickets to the event for the first time. A year later, Bobby Jones, an amateur golfer from Georgia won his first of four U.S. Opens. By 1924, an enormous influx of applicants to compete in the U.S. Open forced the USGA to hold sectional qualifying to determine who would receive entry into the field.

In 1926, the format for the tournament was again switched. Players would play 72 holes; 18 holes on each of the first two days, followed by 36 holes on the third and final day. The changes to the U.S. Open format were paralleled by an almost systematic phase-out of the amateur player. Though amateurs still compete annually, John Goodman was the last amateur to win the U.S. Open, taking the 1933 crown at the North Shore Country Club in Glenview, Illinois. Jack Nicklaus’s second-place finish at the 1960 U.S. Open is the best finish by an amateur since Goodman’s victory in 1933.

The U.S. Open saw relatively few changes between 1935 and 1954. In 1954, the course was roped off from tee to green for the first time, as well as broadcast on national television. Arnold Palmer’s historic comeback victory in 1960 further boosted the tournament’s popularity. But it was the 1962 U.S. Open, in which Jack Nicklaus defeated Arnold Palmer in a Monday playoff, that would catapult “America’s Championship” to the forefront of the golf world.

Over the next 18 years, from 1962 to 1980, Jack Nicklaus and Arnold Palmer combined to win four U.S. Opens. Fans flocked to the U.S. Open in droves to see the budding rivalry. In 1965, to accommodate the growing fan base, the U.S. Open switched from the three-day, 72-hole format to the current, four-day, 72-hole format.

In 1971, Lee Trevino’s victory at the U.S. Open was the catalyst as he went on to play, arguably, the three greatest weeks of golf. After winning the U.S. Open, Trevino went on to capture the Canadian Open crown, followed by the British Open crown. A feat that to this day has not been matched. Trevino, as well as the already well-established Nicklaus and Palmer, created a trio that further launched the event into the American limelight. In 1977, ABC began live coverage of the final two rounds of U.S. Open play. By 1982, upstart cable channel ESPN was broadcasting the Thursday and Friday rounds.

In 1994, the U.S. Open at Oakmont was the venue for Ernie Els’ first victory in America. Els and Loren Roberts both shot 74, while Colin Montgomerie shot a 78. Els claimed the title by defeating Loren Roberts on the second sudden-death playoff hole.  Els and a slew of other foreign champions paved the way for the first qualifying tournaments held outside the United States.

But for the masses, nothing will compare to Tiger Woods’ victory in 2000 at Pebble Beach.  First of all, it was the 100th U.S. Open. Secondly, it was held on one of the great courses in the world that comprised the beauty of an ocean side course that stunned the viewers and fans but on a tough course in which wind played an important factor. It was also perfect timing for Tiger Woods to win his first Open title in a dominating way. At 12 under, he finished 15 strokes ahead of Ernie Els and Miguel Angel Jimenez to become the first double-digit winner relative to par.  The win brought the U.S. Open into a different focus as it began its second decade of play.

Course information:

Oakmont Country Club

Oakmont, Pa

• 7,219 yards
• Par will be 70
• A couple of oddities of the course, the 8th hole will play between 252 and 288 yards.  In 2007 it played to 300 yards in the final day, the longest par 3 in U.S. Open history.  The par 5, 12th hole will play between 632 and 667 yards.  It will be the 2nd longest par 5 in U.S. Open history, the longest is the 16th at Olympic at 667 yards.

USGA CHAMPIONSHIPS AT OAKMONT COUNTRY CLUB

• 1919 U.S. Amateur: S. Davidson Herron def. Robert Jones, 5 and 4
• 1925 U.S. Amateur:  Robert T. Jones Jr. def. Watts Gunn, 8 and 7
• 1927 U.S. Open: Tommy Armour def. Harry Cooper, 301 (76)-301 (79)
• 1935 U.S. Open: Sam Parks def. Jimmy Thompson, 299-301
• 1938 U.S. Amateur: William Turnesa def. B. Patrick Abbott, 8 and 7
• 1953 U.S. Open: Ben Hogan def. Sam Snead, 283-289
• 1962 U.S. Open: Jack Nicklaus def. Arnold Palmer, 283 (71)-283 (74)
• 1969 U.S. Amateur: Steve Melnyk def. Marvin Giles, 286-291
• 1973 U.S. Open: Johnny Miller def. John Schlee, 279-280
• 1983 U.S. Open: Larry Nelson def. Tom Watson, 280-281
• 1992 U.S. Women’s Open: Patty Sheehan def. Juli Inkster, 280 (72)-280 (74)
• 1994 U.S. Open: Ernie Els def. Loren Roberts, Colin Montgomerie 279 (74-4-4)-279 (74-4-5)-279 (78)
• 2003 U.S. Amateur: Nick Flanagan def. Casey Wittenberg, 37 holes
• 2007 U.S. Open: Angel Cabrera def. Jim Furyk, Tiger Woods, 285-286
• 2010 U.S. Women’s Open: Paula Creamer def. Suzann Pettersen, Na Yeon Choi, 281-285

Players with history at Oakmont:

PLAYERS WHO PLAYED IN 2007 U.S. OPEN AT OAKMONT (27) – Here is a listing of players in the field who competed in the 2007 Open at Oakmont: Angel Cabrera (1), Paul Casey (T10), Luke Donald (MC), Jason Dufner (62), Ernie Els (T51), Jim Furyk (T2), Sergio Garcia (MC), Lucas Glover (MC), Retief Goosen (MC), Peter Hanson (T30), J.J. Henry (T26), Zach Johnson (T45), Soren Kjeldsen (MC), Jason Kokrak (MC), Graeme McDowell (T30), Phil Mickelson (MC), Ryan Moore (MC), Geoff Ogilvy (T42), Justin Rose (T10), Charl Schwartzel (T30), Adam Scott (MC), Brandt Snedeker (T23), Henrik Stenson (MC), Toru Taniguchi (MC), David Toms (T5), Bubba Watson (T5) and Lee Westwood (T36).

PLAYERS WHO PLAYED IN 1994 U.S. OPEN AT OAKMONT (4) – Here is a listing of players in the field who competed in the 1994 Open at Oakmont: Ernie Els (1), Jim Furyk (T28), Jeff Maggert (T9) and Phil Mickelson (T47).

PLAYERS WHO PLAYED IN 2003 U.S. AMATEUR AT OAKMONT (9) – Here is a listing of players in the field who competed in the 2003 Amateur at Oakmont: Derek Fathauer, Bill Haas, J.B. Holmes, Billy Hurley III, Chris Kirk, Jason Kokrak, Spencer Levin, Ryan Moore and Brandt Snedeker.

About Oakmont:

The golf course itself was the vision and creation of Henry Fownes, the founder of Oakmont Country Club. Construction on the course began in September of 1903. A team of around 150 men and two dozen mules worked tirelessly to complete the course before winter. However, six weeks later, with twelve holes finished, construction ceased for the winter. The other six holes were completed in the spring of 1904, with the course opening for play that summer.

Fownes’ goal from the outset was to design a course that would withstand the evolution of golf throughout the ages. When the course finally opened, Henry Fownes believed he had achieved perfection in his first attempt as a golf course designer. Consequently, he never built another golf course. To this day, Oakmont remains relatively unchanged, a point of pride among the membership of Oakmont. The only big alteration to the course came in 1951 when the 8th hole green was moved 10 yards to make way for the Pennsylvania Turnpike.  To think that 17 of the 18 greens have not been altered since they were built over a hundred years ago.

The only other significant change to occur at Oakmont took place in the 1960s. A massive tree-planting operation turned what was once an open, links-style course, into a woodland course that forced the golfer to frequently hit blind shots. The changes at Oakmont were undone a few decades later. After the completion of the 1994 U.S. Open at Oakmont, the course was stripped of over 7,000 trees over a decades time and in time for the 2007 U.S. Open.  But Ron Whitten reported in Golf Digest that another 7,500 trees have been removed since the last Open. Initially, the decision to remove the trees was met with hostility; so much so, that the first trees were taken down at night. This marks the most drastic change to the golf course from the 1994 U.S. Open at Oakmont to the one in 2007 and now. Other, minor changes were made before the 2007 Open including a 284-yard lengthening and some new bunkers on the 2nd hole. The hole most affected by the lengthening is the Par 3 Number 8. It could play as long as 300 yards. As for the bunkers, which reside on the right-hand side of the fairway, they have effectively trimmed the already small landing area.

One of the biggest impacts of Oakmont is the bunkering which has been one of the reasons for it being as famous as it is. When Henry Fownes was dreaming and planning the course, he wanted to build a Scottish links course, even though Oakmont was 300 miles from the sea.  One of the items he couldn’t duplicate at Oakmont were the pot bunkers of Scotland because of the poor subsurface drainage in the clay soil.  Oakmont’s bunkers had to be shallow, and Fownes adjusted to this deficiency by having the bunkers dragged with a rake that gouged deep furrows into the sand.  When a ball landed into a bunker, a player found it nearly impossible to get the ball out because the furrow bunkers gave it the same effect as a buried golf shot, which meant that there was nothing to do but explode it out to a safe lie and sacrifice a stroke.  There hasn’t been a professional that has ever talked kindly about the way Oakmont’s bunkers were raked and, in all of the championships that have been played at Oakmont with the forrow bunkers, Willie Turnesa is the only person to have any success with them.  In the 36-hole finals of the 1938 Amateur, Turnesa was able to get up and down 14 of 16 times he visited the sand, gaining the name “Willie the Wedge” for his efforts. These rakes were last used in U.S. Open competition in 1962 and eliminated from the club in 1964.

Talking about bunkers, in the first years after the club was founded in 1903, there were something like 350 bunkers at Oakmont, because Fownes felt that “a shot poorly played should be a shot irrevocably lost.”  Since then, the number of bunkers has gradually been reduced; in the 1953 Open, there were 250.  Since that Open, additional bunkers were removed from the course so that, by the 1962 Open, there were slightly more than 200 of them.  For the 1973 and 1983 Open, there were 187 bunkers.  In the 1994 Open, there were 180 bunkers on the course.  For the 2007 and ’16 U.S. Open there will be a total of 210 bunkers.  As Mike Davis, the USGA president and the man who was in charge of setting up the course said, “When you get in one of them, you are not going to get to the green.”

At the U.S. Open, the Par is 70 and will play to around 7,219 yards  The course has a rating of 77.5 and a slope of 147. The course features bent grass on both the tee boxes and fairways. The rough is 4 to 8 inches of Kentucky Blue Grass mixed with perennial rye grass, and the greens are miniscule .09 inch cut of Poa Annua grass. This thin cut leads to lightning-quick greens all over the course. In fact, the greens will be played between 14 and 15 on the stipmeter.  Oakmont, over the years, has received critical acclaim from all aspects of golf. It has been routinely recognized as one of the top 10 courses in America since the 1960s. In this years’ edition, Oakmont ranks fifth among “America’s 100 Greatest Golf Courses”, trailing only Pine Valley, Shinnecock, Augusta National, and Pebble Beach. Also, it received special distinction in 1987 when it was the first golf course to become a National Landmark.

No two ways about it the talk of the players this week will be how tough Oakmont is.  The touring pros haven’t played a course this tough since, the last time they played at Oakmont in 2007.  What people don’t realize is yes, last week at Memphis the TPC Southwind was hard playing to a 70.930 scoring average.  This week at Oakmont it could be completely benign, and the winning score could be anywhere from even to 3 over par.

Another thing creating “buzz” this week is the possible rivalry of Jordan, Rory and Jason.  This creates a lot of fan interest and Oakmont has seen it’s fair share of rivalries in the U.S. Open.  Remember the first one in 1927; we had the famous rivalry of Bobby Jones against professional golfers in which Jones was out of the top-ten for the first time in his U.S. Open career finishing T11th.

• In 1935 we had the rivalry between Gene Sarazen and Walter Hagen, the two of them fought off each other for over a decade and it would turn out to be their last fight in a major at Oakmont, but both had a tough final day finishing behind unknown Sam Parks.
• In 1953 we had the great rivalry between Ben Hogan and Sam Snead with Hogan coming out on top.
• Then in 1962 we had the first real meeting of Arnold Palmer and Jack Nicklaus, with Nicklaus coming out on top.  This was the first of many epic Nicklaus/Palmer battles and even today with both not competing they consider each other friendly rivals.  In 1973 Palmer and Nicklaus again were in contention on the final day before Johnny Miller on the wings of a 63 put them in the dust and won.
• Ten years later in 1983 Larry Nelson won but what many don’t remember was that Seve Ballesteros and Tom Watson, again rival’s from the Masters and British Open went into the final day fighting it out only to see someone fly past them in the form of Larry Nelson.
• In 1994 Ernie Els and Colin Montgomerie fought it off, both from the European Tour.  Ernie not only got Monty in ’94 but three years later at Congressional, the major that Monty should have won saw again Els get the best of Montgomerie.

Last we didn’t have the great rivalry in 2007 between Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson because Phil hurt his wrist.  But during the weekend, it was a battle between Tiger and Angel Cabrera.

Still I think the main story this week will be how tough the course plays.  I think that on a calm day, Oakmont is the hardest course in America to play, with Carnoustie and Winged Foot just behind them.  What I see happening is just what happened last year at Chambers Bay, an epic battle like we saw between Jordan Spieth and Dustin Johnson with Brendan Grace and Louis Oosthuizen, Cameron Smith and Adam Scott all in contention coming down the stretch.  That produced compelling golf, what the USGA wants.

So there is a lot of interest this year and if the weather holds up could be good theater.

Let’s take a look at key stats that are important for those playing at the U.S. Open:

This is based on the most vital stats for the Oakmont Country Club, based on data from the 2007 U.S. Open and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2016.
A distinctively different course is holding the U.S. Open, one that has already held 8 of them in 89 years. The iconic course is one of the hardest courses in golf, the last time it held the Open the scoring average was 75.70 meaning the field averaged five and three-quarters shots over par. Before that the Open was played at Oakmont in 1994 and the scoring average was 73.94, but back then the course was played at a par 71 instead of the par 70 for 2007 and this year, so it was just about three shots over par. The difference in how tough the course played had a lot of do with the weather. In 1994 it was dreadfully hot and humid, so the course played fast, and players got more run out of the ball. With the lack of rain, the rough wasn’t lush as it was in 2007, thus a lot easier to get it on the green or close from the rough. In 2007 the weather was very un-Pittsburg like because it was cool. When the players teed off at noon on Thursday in 1994, the temperature was 89 degrees with a 4 mph breeze. Every day was like that, but on Thursday in 2007 the highest temperature for the day was 72 degrees, with 11 mph winds. The first three days was cool and it did rain a bit, so the rough was super tough and the winds made the course tougher. The final round was the only warm day, it got up to 88 degrees by the time the leaders teed off, with 11 mph winds.
Now for this year it’s been wet leading up to the Open, last week they had close to an inch of rain. Now the course is on a hill and does drain well, since there are no trees the sun and wind do dry it out fasters, but the point is the weather is going to make this course play differently. Just look at the weather forecast, you can see light rain on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, followed by good weather over the weekend. So will the cooler conditions (between 82 and 87 degrees) make the course play harder or easier? If history repeats, we could see high scores like we did in 2007.

Every phase of the game will be examined at Oakmont. First you have to hit it straight off the tee because the fairways are lined with strategy placed bunkers that are tough to get out of, along with rough that is 4 to 8 inches of Kentucky Blue Grass mixed with perennial rye grass. Once you hit the fairway, hitting it into the greens is an adventure, they are hard to hold and with lots of undulations, you have to place the shot on the right side to have a putt at birdie. Once on the greens a new adventure awaits as the lightning-quick greens will be the fastest greens players will ever experience (14.5 on the stimpmeter). The winner needs to hit it long and straight; it’s a big advantage to have the shortest distance to the green, even if it means hitting out of the rough. In 2007 Angel Cabrera was the second longest driver in the field which helps him hit 47 of the 72 greens, ranking T-3rd. So the winner will probably be one of the top-30 on the Tour’s Strokes gained tee-to-green category. Players have to drive it straight and not drive it into bunkers. Remember this; Oakmont has 210 bunkers and 92 of them guard the fairways of all the par 4s and 5s. No course is more penal from fairway sand than Oakmont was in 2007, for those that drove it into sand they had a 33% return of making par or under on the hole. In 2007 the cost of rough stat was .525 shots lost for driving it into the rough on the courses 14 par 4s and 5s. So we can’t stress the disadvantage of hitting it off line and short. In 2007 four of the top-6 on the leaderboard were in the top-11 of driving distance with Cabrera being 2nd, so the odds for players like Dustin Johnson, Bubba Watson, Rory McIlroy, Tony Finau, J.B. Holmes and Brooks Koepka are better since they hit it the longest on the PGA Tour.
Is there any one part of playing Oakmont that favors a certain player? The easiest items from 2007 were driving distance (ranked 30th on tour that week), Driving Accuracy (ranked 5th) and Greens hit (ranked 3rd from all courses in 2007). After that the course ranked 2nd hardest in putts per round, one-putt percentage and par 3 scoring average, it was the most difficult of all the other course on the PGA Tour in 2007 in Scrambling, Sand Saves, birdie average, 3-putt avoidance, putting average, Par 4 average and par 5 average.

So in looking at our four categories, our first is Strokes Gained Tee-to Green. This is going to be the most important item and frankly go to the top and sort through it, I would say that someone in the top-30 will win this week. Now in 2007 they didn’t have Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, so we have to look at several stats. First in 2007 Oakmont ranked 30th in driving distance for the year, they were 5th in driving accuracy and 3rd in Greens hit. As for the winner Angel Cabrera, he was 2nd in driving distance, T-48th in driving accuracy and T-3rd in greens hit. What is awesome is that Cabrera was terrible in driving accuracy but hit it so far that he was left with a short iron, so he overpowered Oakmont. Our second stat is putting inside of 10 feet; that is important because Oakmont has some of the hardest greens in the world to putt. It’s the greens themselves, and they are a particular breed of Poa Annua that was first discovered when the course opened and had carried over. The greens are the smoothest you will ever putt, they are hard to spike up and tear up and will be fast. On the average, the PGA Tour putts on greens that run at 12 on the stimpmeter but this week they will be between 14 and 15.5, remarkable speeds. With some of the undulations, the greens will be challenging, but lot’s of putts will be made. In 2007 Oakmont ranked 1st in putting average, 2nd in one-putt percentage, 1st in 3-putt avoidance and 2nd in putts per round. For Cabrera, he was 6th in putting average, T-35th in one-putt percentage, T-6th in 3-putt avoidance and T-28th in putts per round. Our third stat is scrambling, lot’s of players will miss greens at Oakmont and will have to get it up and down. In 2007 the course ranked 1st in scrambling while Cabrera was T-50th. Our fourth category is sand saves, remember there are 210 bunkers at Oakmont and 78 of them will be around the green so you can see that being able to save par from the bunkers is important. In 2007 Oakmont was the hardest in sand saves while Cabrera was T-21st.

So you can see Oakmont will be very special, and you can eliminate about 116 of the 156 players, I see only about 40 players having any chance of winning.
Now remember the U.S. Open is an international event that not only allows players to qualify as over half the field has to qualify, but there are players from all over the world, so this chart only has 80 players on it. That’s because the other 76 players don’t play full time on the PGA Tour and have not played enough rounds to qualify for stats.

*Strokes Gained tee-to-green: Course may have only been 25th hardest on tour, but you need to hit it long and straight along with hitting lot’s of greens. So this is important to find a player that will do this

*Putting inside 10 feet: Very easy, counts every putt from ten feet in to see who makes the most.

*Scrambling: The percent of time a player misses the green in regulation, but still makes par or better.

*Sand Saves: The percent of time a player gets it up and down from a bunker.

Players from this year’s field with stats from 2016:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

For the rest of the players, hit this link:

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the U.S. Open:

• Since 1960 only nine players have made the U.S. Open their first PGA Tour victory; Jack Nicklaus, 1962; Lee Trevino, 1968; Orville Moody, 1969; Jerry Pate, 1976; Ernie Els, 1993, Retief Goosen, 2001, Michael Campbell in 2005, Angel Cabrera in 2007 and Graeme McDowell in 2010.  But take a look at that list. Jack Nicklaus and Jerry Pate were U.S. Amateur champions, Retief Goosen, and Ernie Els had almost a dozen wins around the world before they won the U.S. Open and Lee Trevino became one of the greatest players in the world.  Michael Campbell, Angel Cabrera, and Graeme McDowell won a lot around the world, especially in Europe. So of these first-time winners, you have Orville Moody, who went on to win the Senior Open but still wasn’t that great of a player.  The point here is looking for a big name to win the U.S. Open.
• So could that open the door for another first-time winner?  Probably not, of the 51 first timers, I don’t see one that could win, lot’s of good players and prospects for the future but not today.
• Five years ago the 41-year streak of not having a European Tour player winner was finally broken by Graeme McDowell.  Since then the floodgates have opened as other Europeans like Rory McIlroy won in 2011, Justin Rose in 2013 and Martin Kaymer in 2014.  With the course being so hard, don’t be surprised if another European wins this year. Europeans are used to playing links style courses, more than Americans.  One that I don’t see fitting the bill is Justin Rose.  He has been a part of the last couple of Opens, winning at Merion in 2013.  He fits the profile of a player that can win at Oakmont but with one big exception, his back.  He told reporters that he is working hard on the back and making progress.  Still don’t think he will be in the mix, yes I have heard the words “Beware of the injured,” but in the case of Rose, you have a sore back it’s hard to play your best.  Rose has had a very indifferent year, probably because of the back.  Yes, he finished T-10th at the Masters and 3rd at the Wells Fargo last month, but after finishing T-19th at the Players has withdrawn from the BMW PGA and the Memorial.  So the bottom line, he probably isn’t worth taking a chance on.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

So what will it take to win at Oakmont?

• The most important thing to remember about Oakmont is having a lot of patience.  Each week these players compete in an environment in which you make a birdie every fourth hole or a total of five to six times a round.  In 2007 the birdie average at Oakmont was 1.78 birdies a round.  That means over 72 holes the average is only making just over 7 birdies for a tournament.  So these players need to realize that par is there best friend and when that occasional birdie pops up treasure it.
• The most important aspect will be getting around the course. In 2014 Martin Kaymer choreographed a perfect 72 holes to get around Pinehurst.  The person that wins this week will have to do the same, think about the placement of each shot and pick your spots to go after a birdie and make sure to make par.  In 2011 Rory McIlroy won thanks to only making three bogies and one double bogey.  Someone will be looking to do that this year.
• How important is driving?  Very important.  As you can see on this page and in our course fantasy look driving it far and straight will go a long way at Oakmont.  But for those that have the power to hit it a long way, they better be straight.  If you drive it into a fairway bunker your dead and if you drive it into the rough and over 130 yards from the green you dead, so hitting it far and straight like Bubba Watson, Dustin Johnson and Rory McIlroy do is important.

Hitting to the greens, how tough?

• A lot will depend on if the pin is tucked away on a plateau or hard to get close.  Again a player has to be smart; there are lot’s of dangerous around the greens, so you have to make sure a shot is to the right part of the green.  The greens will also be hard (unless rain makes them too soft), those lot’s of shots won’t hold the greens and roll off into a hard situation.  Sometimes getting it up and down from rough off the green will be hard, the same with greenside bunkers, they won’t be easy to get up and down from.
• What about once you get there?  Greens are big at 7,000 sq ft with lots of undulation and roll.  They aren’t massive at 8,700 square feet like Chambers Bay were but yes reading the greens will be tough.

Weather

The weather is always important at the U.S. Open. We have a new weather link that will help you see when it will rain and what the temperature will be at any given hour. This tells us to expect rain starting on Wednesday afternoon and turning into heavy showers most of Thursday with at its peak around noon on Thursday with a half an inch of rain coming down.  We all know what happened at Oakmont in 1973 when heavy rain made the course soft, and Johnny Miller shot a final round 63.  The USGA won’t be able to control the weather so the look for low scoring with a dozen players being under par.  But the weather is going to clear up, and the course will dry out, remember it’s on a hill, so it drains fast and with no trees to block the sun it gets baked easier.  So the scoring will be tough over the weekend.

Is there any rhyme or reason for a player winning the U.S. Open?

• No.
• In the past 25 years it’s been won by grinders like Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth, Justin Rose, Jim Furyk, Retief Goosen, Angel Cabrera and Graeme McDowell, who may not look pretty but knows how to place shots in the right spots.  There have also been superstars like Tiger Woods, who were expected to win.  It’s been won by great tour players like Tom Kite and Corey Pavin, who capped off their PGA Tour careers with their first win in a major.  It’s been won by up and coming stars like South African’s Ernie Els, Martin Kaymer, Retief Goosen and Geoff Ogilvy, who won it in 2006.
• Who can forget the stars that many thought were past their prime, like Payne Stewart and Hale Irwin.  It’s also been won by tour grinders like Lee Janzen and Webb Simpson. Last but not least the stray qualifier like Steve Jones, who surprised the golfing world with his victory in 1996, plus Michael Campbell in 2005, who was contemplating not going to U.S. Open qualifying the night before.  How about 2009 winner Lucas Glover, you show me a person that had a winning Lucas Glover ticket, and I will show you my winning Irish sweepstake ticket.  In past Opens, we said that it was a wide open field.  But I feel that only the best will contend this week. It will be just like the Masters in which only a dozen players have a real chance at winning.