BlogBritish Open Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

What a drastic change, on Tuesday evening I was sweating my butt off at the Washington Nationals game. In the two days since I went to London where the temperature was a perfect 75 degrees to now Troon where it’s cold and raining. I have seen the sun sparingly and have been told not to expect to see the sun until I arrive home in Washington a week from now.

But that is the allure of the Open Championship, something that is different than what we normally see in the states. Last year at St. Andrews the weather was raining most of the week, and it was cold. In the five or six years before, the weather at the Open was like being in San Diego, picture perfect. But with the kind of weather that will be with us this year, it makes this week fun to watch as the players will have to show that they can survive cold, rainy and windy conditions.

So what’s attractive for this year?

Lot’s of storylines.  First, you have the storyline of how Dustin Johnson has reached a new level in his game and now is hunted by everyone.  He is on a crystal pedestal that could shatter at any moment as the man to beat.  We saw this last year with Jordan Spieth as he had to manage all of the people from media to fans that wanted a piece of him.  I can say this, every major has that one person on that pedestal, and it’s hard to win, you want to be like Zach Johnson who flies under the radar screen and on Sunday just pops in to snatch glory.  On Johnson, we didn’t spot him today supposedly he has spent the last week in Ireland.  He played Portmarnock on Friday before heading just north to have rounds at The Island Golf Club on Saturday and Sunday.  No matter what, once he lands at Troon he will be the man to beat and will have to answer a lot of questions from now until he tees off on Thursday morning.

What about Jason?  He spent Saturday and Sunday at Troon getting ready for Thursday.  He is stinging a bit from taking a one-shot lead into the weekend at Akron and not getting the job done.  He also has the memories from St. Andrews of coming a shot away from being in the playoff and would like to lift the Claret Jug on Sunday.  “I’m just trying to get as good as I can, and the only way to do that is to learn from failure, and the way you look at it is not in a negative way,” Day told the media on Monday. “You have to look at it in a positive light.  So does that mean he is ready to go?  I would say yes, he is in the right frame, and the course is good for him so don’t worry about him he will be in contention over the weekend.

What about Rory?   Last year it was a disappointment not to defend his title and watch the tournament because of his leg injury in the weeks before the Open. In a span of two years since winning the PGA Championship in 2014, things have changed.  Two years ago he was the undisputed player in golf, winning two majors in a row.  But since his win at Valhalla, he is not only number one but has fallen to #4 behind Day, Johnson and Spieth.  McIlroy knows he has to win, and we could see that the pressure bothered him when he missed the cut last month at the U.S. Open at Oakmont.  Now for him the course is perfect, he can overpower Troon and the weakest part of his game now the putter, could be ok on the flat, slow greens of Troon.  Things are perfect for him except for the weather.  Rory hasn’t shown that he can play in high winds and rain, and we will have to see if he can handle that.  That will be the challenge for him, as he looks to win his fifth major this week at Troon.

What about Jordan?  The big news about him today was his withdrawal from the Olympics.  He joins Jason Day, Dustin Johnson and Rory McIlroy as another top-notch player that won’t be at the Olympics.  It’s sad that they have all cited Zika as the problem, but frankly, we haven’t seen any women withdraw.  The fact is that these players don’t want to travel to Brazil, they have lot’s of money and fame and just don’t think it’s worth the bother.  That will all come up a month from now, we have to look and see if this will be a good week for Jordan.  He comes into the week after a poor finish at Firestone and Oakmont.  He won at Colonial two months ago, but after what happened at Augusta where he blew a four-shot back nine lead, he has to win a major again.  On paper, Troon doesn’t fit Spieth’s game, but he is a lot like Justin Leonard in his prime, and Justin won at Troon so we shouldn’t be surprised if Jordan wins this week.  A lot of what Spieth does comes down to the putter, so if he putts well, everything else will line up.  Still, there is one stat that bothers me about Jordan, he ranks 165th in greens hit.  You just don’t win majors with that kind of iron game into the greens.  Last year Jordan was 49th in greens in regulation, you can win majors ranked 49th, not 165th.  He was about the same at the Masters and we all saw how this came back to bite him during the final round.  So it will be fun to watch him this week

What about Troon?  The course looks great and green.  In a way, I have to think that the R&A like that the weather will not be good this week.  I believe that if it were a bright sunny week of golf with no wind like it was at Muirfield in 2013 or Hoylake in 2014 Troon would get torn apart by the players.  The course is too short and needs the wind to protect it.  One myth about the course, if your not under par by the time you reach the 8th tee, you are dead.  The back nine could play two to three shots tougher, and it will be interesting to see.  One thing to watch, the typical wind is from the west, from the Irish Sea.  But the forecast for Friday is for the winds to shift from the south so the course will play opposite, the front nine will be tough, and the back nine will be easy.

No matter, we are all looking forward to it all.

Championship information:

The British Open traces its roots back to October 17, 1860, at the Links at Prestwick. Eight professionals vied at the inaugural Open Championship, making three trips around the 12-hole golf course at Prestwick. Willie Park Sr.’s 174 gave him a two-shot win over Old Tom Morris. The original prize was the Challenge Belt. It’s interesting to note that a month later on November 6th, 1860, Abraham Lincoln was elected as the 16th President of the United States.

In 1873, Tom Kidd’s victory at St. Andrews was monumental. It was the first-Open Championship held at St. Andrews, and with Kidd’s win, he took home the first-ever Claret Jug. The jug was manufactured at a cost of 30 pounds by Mackay Cunningham & Co. of Edinburgh. Now to put that in prospective, 30 pounds today would be worth about 50 dollars. Not much money in today’s world but here is a better view of it. In searching the value of the British pound in 1860, it had the purchasing power of about 63.10 today. So if you multiply 63.10, 30 times you get 1,893 pounds which mean in today’s money they paid about $3,000 for makeup the original Claret Jug.

By 1892, The Open Championship had moved to a 72-hole format, 36-holes over two days. With the changes to Open Championship format, play began to increase. As play increased, a cut was instituted, beginning in 1898, to limit the number of competitors over the final 36 holes. The increase in competition led to a decrease in scoring. Jack White’s 296 in the 1904 Open Championship marked the first time a competitor shot an aggregate score under 300. His final round 68 also set a record for the lowest round by a golfer. The Open Championship went on a six-year hiatus beginning in 1914 due to the outbreak of World War I. When the tournament resurfaced in 1920, it did so under new ownership. The R&A was entrusted with the task of managing the event. To this day, the R&A still administers the championship.

The R&A quickly installed changes to The Open Championship. The event spanned three days, 18 holes on each of the first two days and 36 on the final day. Also, The R&A began charging admission to see the event. A year later, The R&A began to produce a replica Claret Jug that is awarded to each year’s champion. The original jug resides in the clubhouse of the Royal & Ancient Golf Club. The suspension of the Open from 1939 to 1946 due to World War II represents the longest gap between Open Championships. Sam Snead won the 1946 U.S. Open at St. Andrews, defeating Bobby Locke.

The 1955 Open marked a new era for the event. BBC broadcasted the tournament on television for the first time. By 1966, the Open Championship was being played over four days, 18 holes each day. ABC, for the first time, broadcasted a live feed of the event in America in 1982. In 1977, Regional Qualifying around England and Scotland was introduced on a permanent basis, to help organize qualifying in which there were two levels, first local qualifying and then moving on the week of the championship. It had been an experiment at the 1926 Open but abandoned after just one year. In 1980, the Open Championship was moved to its current format, 18 holes over four days, with the tournament concluding on Sunday. A decade later, in 1990, the event set an attendance record with over 208,000 spectators showing up to watch the tournament at St. Andrews. One more significant change in 2005 saw international qualifying, with different sites set up in Australia, South Africa, Asia, America and for the European players to try and qualify in their country instead of having to fly off to England. Today things are a bit different; there are two ways you can get in. One is either winning an important event, being high up the world rankings, being a top winner on either the PGA Tour, European Tour, South African Tour and Asian Tour. Or you can get through in qualifying tournaments in which there are nine events in which the top players for that week can get into the Open and five qualifying sites, one in Thailand and the other four in England just two weeks ago.

The 2016 Open Championship will be the 145th installment of the tournament. It will be held at Royal Troon for the 9th time. What is impressive is that the last six winners starting with Arnold Palmer in 1962 have been American’s, so will this streak continue this year?

Course information:

• Royal Troon Golf Club
• Troon, Scotland
• 7,190 yards     Par 36-35–71

Royal Troon was founded in 1878 as a five hole course following a meeting in a local pub by some of the locals of Troon. In was George Strath, Troon’s pro who was responsible for the original design. Willie Fernie and James Braid later modified and extended the layout. It was first used in 1923 as an Open course and was very successful. In the years before it was overshadowed by Prestwick, the course that had already hosted 23 Opens and was next to Troon. But your couldn’t add more yardage to Prestwick and by 1925 the course was obsolete for the Open Championship. So in a way, Troon succeeded because of Prestwick’s downfall.

The course measures to 7,190 and in reality, the yardage doesn’t matter, because the wind changes the aspect of the course. The opening holes are easy with a series of par fours running down the Firth of Clyde. The 6th was the longest par 5 in Open Championship history until the 14th at St. Andrews took that over. Still, at 601 yards it can be reached on windy days and has always played easily. The 7th goes inland and sets up for the short 8th, only 123 yards, but if you miss the 2,000 square foot green and land in a bunker, par is tough. After that, you have the 9th hole that is still downwind. Then you turn direction and head back on the back nine which has eight holes that will be into the prevailing wind. One of the hardest holes on the course is the 490 yard 11th. In 2004 it was the most difficult hole on the course and the 5th hardest for the year on the PGA Tour playing to a 4.413 average. Only 35 birdies were made on the hole compared to 38 doubles and 13 “others.” What makes the hole tough is the out-of-bounds on the right as an active railway line runs the length of the hole. You will see on television all the train traffic on that line that has a way of disturbing the players. Another tough element about Troon is the 96 pot bunkers that are on the course. These are bunkers that are close to impossible to get out of and are an instant penalty. One other thing making the holes hard is that most of the greens are higher than the fairway, and if you miss the green the ball will roll off into either a pot bunker or give a player a tough pitch to the hole. Yes, Troon is a challenge.

Let’s take a look at key stats that are important for those playing at the Open Championship:

This is based on the most vital stats from Royal Troon, based on data from the 2004 British Open and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2016.
Royal Troon has been a staple of the British Open rota; this will be the 9th time the Open has been played there. Since it didn’t appear on the rota till 1923, that means that the R&A has held the Open at Troon once a decade. Another oddity, an Englishman won the first Open in 1923 and a South African won the next in 1950, with the last six since 1962 won by an American.
Troon is a traditional links course; it incorporates the natural landscape with the added hazard of wind off the Irish Sea. The secret to playing Troon well is to capitalize on the first seven holes which typically play downwind. After that making birdies are slim with the last six holes played into the teeth of the wind. What surprises me about Troon is that the R&A hasn’t made any drastic changes to the course. In 1997, 20 years ago the course played at 7,079 yards or about 111 yards less than this year’s yardage of 7,190. In 2004, 12 years ago, the course played at 7,175 yards, four yards less than today’s yardage. Now I know what the deal is, nine at of every ten days you will have a 15 to 20 mph wind blowing out of the west and the sea, which is the reason the course is tough. That and the fact that the course is littered with 96 pot bunkers that are an automatic one shot penalty is the reason that they don’t tear up this course. In 2004 the course played to a 73.21 average, it was the 2nd hardest course on the PGA Tour that year. Now the rough is up, I think there is more this year than in 2004 (maybe because it’s been raining every day in Scotland for the last three weeks). So let’s just say that even with 12 years of advancements to equipment, club knowledge, and natural fit bodies the course should play the same as in 2004.

So if the weather is so important, what does it look like for the week?

Rain, rain and more rain with the wind that averages 20 mph. No way anyone overpowers this course and shoots lights out unless he gets a bit lucky and has a calm three or four hours. Again it will come down to the luck of the draw, some will get lucky and get that one good patch while others will experience miserable weather every day.
Right now the forecast says that Thursday will be the best day of them all with partly cloudy skies and wind blowing just 15 mph. But a front moves in and Friday, Saturday and Sunday will have lashing rain. Look for winds on Saturday to be 30 mph with gust up to 40 MPH. So it will be fun to watch from your couch. For Sunday again showers with 20 mph winds. The big thing will be a shift in wind conditions after getting accustomed to a west wind, guess what on Friday? For the rest of the weekend, the wind will come out of the south and southwest. So that means the course will drastically change, instead of the first seven holes playing easy and the back nine playing brutal, holes 1 through 7 and nine will be hard and holes 10, 11, 13 through 18 will play easy.
Now for this year it’s been wet leading up to the Open as the area has had three weeks of steady rain. Shall I say when you see pictures of Troon, it will be a beautiful green that also means the rough will be tough to get out of.

So will every phase of a players game be examined at Troon? From tee to green yes, it will be a tough challenge. But the greens are flat with very little undulation, and they will be slow by PGA Tour standards, so this week will be a good week for weak putters.

So in looking at our four categories, our first is Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. This is going to be the most important item and frankly, go to the top and sort through it, I would say that someone in the top-30 will win this week. Now in 2004 they didn’t have Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, so we have to look at several stats. First in 2005 at Troon, it ranked 31st in driving distance for the year, it was 2nd in driving accuracy and 4th in Greens hit. As for the winner Todd Hamilton (who could be a poor example), he was 10th in driving distance, T-25th in driving accuracy and T-19th in greens hit. (now runner-up Ernie Els, a much better example was 4th in driving distance, T-10th in driving accuracy and T-6th in greens hit).
Our second stat is putting inside of 10 feet; that is important because Troon has some of the easiest greens in the world to putt. Easy greens bring a lot more players into the equation, the only way to separate them will be to see who makes all those putts inside 10 feet, if a player can make all of them then he will do well this week. Winner Hamilton was 14th in putting average in 2004, but you have to say that he is normally a poor putter (finished the year T-84th in putting average). Our third stat is scrambling, lot’s of players will miss greens at Troon and will have to get it up and down. In 2004 the course ranked 7th in scrambling while Hamilton was 11th. Our fourth category is birdies, in 2004 the course ranked 2nd in hardest of making birdies as only 2.52 were made by the field for the week. Hamilton was T-4th in birdie average making 4 per round.

So you can see Troon will be very special, and you can eliminate about 100 of the 156 players, I see only about 56 players having any chance of winning.
Now remember the British Open is an international event that not only allows players to qualify as over half the field has to qualify, but there are players from all over the world, so this chart only has 74 players on it. That’s because the other 82 players don’t play full time on the PGA Tour and have not played enough rounds to qualify for stats.

*Strokes Gained tee-to-green: Course may have only been 25th hardest on tour, but you need to hit it long and straight along with hitting lot’s of greens. So this is important to find a player that will do this

*Putting inside 10 feet: Very easy, counts every putt from ten feet in to see who makes the most.

*Scrambling: The percent of time a player misses the green in regulation, but still makes par or better.

*Birdie Average: The number of birdies made during a round.

Players from this year’s field with stats from 2016:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

For the rest of the players, hit this link:

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the British Open:

• In the past 24 years its been won by grinders like Zach Johnson, Mark Calcavecchia, Tom Lehman, Darren Clarke and Stewart Cink who may not look pretty but knows how to place shots in the right spots. There have also been superstars like Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy, who were expected to win. And then you had your superstar that wasn’t expected to win in Phil Mickelson, do the job. Its been won by great tour players like Ernie Els, David Duval and Justin Leonard who capped off their PGA Tour careers with their first win in a major. But unfortunately, the British Open has been won by guys that fell out of the limelight right after their wins. Ian Baker-Finch, Mark O’Meara, Paul Lawrie, David Duval, Todd Hamilton and Ben Curtis all come to mind, since there win they have fallen from grace and have struggled with their games.
• The field has the best golf has to offer, 91 of the top-100 in the world rankings.  Just about every big player in the world will be at Troon this week so there are a lot of players who could win it.

Key stat for the winner:

• Length and brute strength will play a major role this week.  The longer you drive it, the more of an advantage you will have.  With thick rough, look for more players to be timid and leaving themselves with a lot of yardage into the greens.
• Putting is going to be a premium this week.  Everybody is making a big deal that the last six winners at Troon have been Americans, a better stat is that the last six of the last seven winners at Troon have been a great putter (except for Todd Hamilton) that excelled on the greens of Troon.  I feel that the winner this week, whether American or not will be a great putter, that seems to be a key to winning at Troon.
• Be able to play in all conditions.  For the practice rounds, the course has been playing tough, but they are getting used to the west wind.  Know the wind could change starting on Friday and come from the south if that happens it will take some patience for players to make the change in their strategy.
• If the wind blows, as some forecasters are calling for this weekend, it will be survival of the fitness, a bit like last year.   I know a marquee player will step up this week, just like last year it could be a Zach Johnson type.
• Scrambler. Green are a bit small, and a player must have the skills to get it up and down from off the green or from greenside bunkers.
• A player that doesn’t hit it into bunkers.  One of the key stats for Tiger Woods win in 2000 and Justin Leonard’s victory at Troon in 1997 is that they didn’t hit it in a bunker during the 72 holes.  If that gets repeated this week, that person will win the Claret Jug.
• Now, what does all of this mean?  Look for a Sergio Garcia or a Henrik Stenson to shine.  They are two players that could get caught up in all of the problems if it’s windy and rainy this week.

Some other keys to playing well this week:

• Good bunker play – yes you want to avoid them, but for those that can escape and get it up and down it will help.
• Some will say that length and brute strength will play a major role this week.  That’s not how Todd Hamilton did it 12 years ago, or Justin Leonard did it 20 years ago.  The longer you drive it, the more of an advantage you will have.  But with heavy rough that will be thicker when wet, look for more irons off the tee.
• Putting is going to be a premium this week.  The greens are flat and slow under the standards of the top professionals so look for lots of 7, 8, 9 and 10 footers to be made.
• Will Troon have a surprise winner or will it be a marquee name nobody can predict?  Look at the past; it has a history of know Champion.  Last year at St. Andrews people were surprised at Zach Johnson winning.  The year before at Hoylake it didn’t surprise anyone that Rory McIlroy won.  The same in 2013 at Muirfield, it didn’t surprise anyone that Phil Mickelson won. He was a hall-of-famer, joining other hall of fame winners of Muirfield.
• Last but not least, don’t listen to any of the experts that make picks, that includes me.  Golf has become close to impossible to gauge and to picking a winner is almost impossible.  The game has gotten so refined with swing gurus, mind coaches, fitness coaches and dietary experts that golfers can change from playing terribly to winning in a matter of a week. Yes, golf has gotten very complicated these days.