Key Fantasy Stats Baltusrol

PGA Championship

July 28th – July 31st, 2016

Baltusrol G.C.

Springfield, N.J.

Par: 70 / Yardage: 7,428

Purse: $10 million

with $1,800,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Jason Day

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This is based on the most vital stats from Baltusrol, based on data from the 2005 PGA Championship and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2016.
The lower course at Baltusrol has held many major championships including 1954, ’67,’80 and ’93 U.S. Opens and the 2005 PGA Championship. Historically the lower course has produced the lowest scores in U.S. Open history, and that’s probably why it hasn’t been back since 1993. Jack Nicklaus tied the 72 hole mark when the Open was played there in 1967 and 1980 broke that mark when he shot 272. In 1980 two of the three 63s in U.S. Open history was shot in the first round and in 1993 Lee Janzen tied the 72 hole scoring record that Nicklaus accomplished in 1980. So Baltusrol has been associated with low scoring, to the point that it hasn’t been mentioned for another U.S. Open since. By a fluke, the PGA Championship was played at Baltusrol, when Brookline decided not to hold the 2005 PGA Championship. It was shifted to Baltusrol and scores weren’t that low even though Thomas Bjorn did shot 63 in the third round. Mickelson’s 4 under par 276 winning total showed that Baltusrol did have some bite to it.
One of the reasons for the A.W. Tillinghast course being an excellent choice today is the way the greens are bunkered and the fact that from the rough, greens are impossible to hit. So it puts an importance on driving the ball into the fairways and hitting greens. Those that have played the course over this weekend report that the rough is spotty, very thick and tough to advance in areas but in some places sparse making it easy to get the ball on the green. So players that hit it long have an advantage, but the will be playing Russian Roulette if they miss the fairway. Scoring opportunities are rare as only two par 4s are under 425 yards, three of the four par 3s are over 209 yards and the two par 5s are the 17th and 18th holes so players have to hold on for dear life to get those “birdie opportunities.” So a tip, look for those high up in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green to do well
In 2005 the course played to a 72,45 average when it staged the PGA Championship, making it the 3rd hardest course on the PGA Tour that year. Another stat from 2005 the field only averaged making 2.48 birdies per round as only one course was worst, Pinehurst for the U.S. Open. So for the players this week it will be a contest on who will make the most pars and avoid any high scores.
Heat and humidity will take its toll as each day of the championship it will be in the high 80s/low 90s with high humidity and chances of afternoon thunderstorms.

So will every phase of the game be examined at Baltusrol? From tee to green yes, it will be a tough challenge. Hitting the greens will also be important, and the greens will be fast and have medium roll to them, so good putters will have an advantage. Just like any other Tillinghast course, it will be a total grind from the 1st tee to the 18th green. Yes the second hole is only 377 yards and the 8th hole is 380 yards, but even these holes are a challenge if you miss the fairway. On top of keeping it out of the rough, there are at best guess around 130 bunkers in fairways and around the greens. You better be good from sand because they will be hard to avoid over 72 holes.

So in looking at our four categories, our first is Strokes Gained Tee-to Green. This is going to be the most important item and frankly go to the top and sort through it, I would say that someone in the top-30 will win this week. Now in 2005 they didn’t have Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, so we have to look at several stats. First in 2005 at Baltusrol, it ranked T-37th in driving distance for the year, it was 10th in driving accuracy and 6th in Greens hit. As for the winner Phil Mickelson (who could be a poor example) he was 75th in driving distance, T-37th in driving accuracy and T-8th in greens hit.
Our second stat is putting inside of 10 feet; that is important because Baltusrol has some complex greens and if a player is going to win he needs to make every putt inside 10 feet. Easy greens bring in a lot more players in the equation and there is no two ways, the only way to separate them will be to see who makes all those putts inside 10 feet. If a player can make all of them then he will do well this week. In 2005 Baltusrol ranked 7th in putting average, 3rd in one-putt average and 12th in 3-putt avoidance. Winner Mickelson was T-3rd in putting average, so it proves the point that you need to make all of those putts inside 10 feet.
Our third stat is scrambling, lot’s of players will miss greens at Baltusrol and will have to get it up and down. In 2005 the course ranked 4th in scrambling while Hamilton was 60th (yes, hard to believe that number from him). Our fourth category is birdies, in 2005 the course ranked 3rd in hardest of making birdies as only 2.48 were made by the field for the week. Mickelson was T-2nd in birdie average making 4 birdies per round.

So you can see Baltusrol will be very special, and you can eliminate about 110 of the 156 players, I see only about 46 players having any chance of winning.
Now remember the PGA Championship is an international event and open to 20 club pros that won’t qualify for stats, so this chart only has 93 players on it. That’s because the other 63 players don’t play full time on the PGA Tour and have not played enough rounds to qualify for stats.

*Strokes Gained tee-to-green: Course may have only been 25th hardest on tour, but you need to hit it long and straight along with hitting lot’s of greens. So this is important to find a player that will do this

*Putting inside 10 feet: Very easy, counts every putt from ten feet in to see who makes the most.

*Scrambling: The percent of time a player misses the green in regulation, but still makes par or better.

*Birdie Average: The number of birdies made during a round.

Players from this year’s field with stats from 2016:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

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