BlogJohn Deere Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

What a shame, the John Deere has worked really hard to get it to the level that it was at last year.  Despite being played the week before the British Open, it still had a lot of loyal folks that would play in the tournament and then take the player charter to England.  The PGA Tour gave that date to the Greenbrier which got wiped off the face of West Virginia with the devastating floods that hit at the end of June and the event was cancelled.  Now the Deere is playing second fiddle to the Olympics and has it’s worst field in over a decade.

But the tournament will survive, it’s a great attraction to the area and has a lot of community support and they will put on another great tournament like they usually do.

We do have an injury report and that is Will Wilcox, who not only withdrew this week but says he is having wrist surgery which will end his year.  The wrist has been bothering him since the Wells Fargo, he had a great shot at getting into the FedExCup playoffs, he had top-10s at the Frys.Com Open (T-10th) and the WM Phoenix (T-6th) but since the Wells Fargo he has missed 5 cuts in 8 starts.

History of the John Deere

The John Deere Classic was created in 1971. Founded by a businessman in Davenport, Iowa, it began as a satellite PGA event known as the Quad City Open. It stayed in Davenport through 1974, where it subsequently moved to the Oakwood Country Club in Coal Valley, Iowa. The John Deere Classic remained in Coal Valley until 2000, where the move to Silvis coincided with the opening of TPC Deere Run.

The John Deere Classic took center stage in 2005 when Michelle Wie attempted to become the first woman to make a PGA cut since Babe Didrikson Zaharias. After a first round 1-under, Wie found herself in prime position to make the cut. Through 14 holes in round 2, Wie was 3-under for the day, 4-under for the tournament. Her momentum dissipated on Number 15 as she proceeded to severely pull her drive, then from their chip into a bunker and eventually, made double bogey. Wie ended up missing the cut by one shot.

Since 1997, the event has been the week before the British Open were it was always a struggled to get a good field of players.  In 2008 tournament organizers came up with a plan that help attract players.  They made a charter flight available in which players would be able to leave the Sunday after play.  It was a comfortable journey as players enjoy big business class seats with very little hassle in getting to the British Islands, since the plane landed at an airport near the venue of the championship.  The charter has been a big hit and help the tournament land a lot of marquee names.

The tournament began as the Quad Cities Open in 1971 and was a “satellite event” on the PGA Tour. It became an official tour event in 1972. Title sponsors have included Ed McMahon (1974–79), Miller Brewing Company (1982–85), Hardee’s (1986–94) and John Deere (since 1999).

Course Information

TPC Deere Run

• Silvis, Il.
• 7,257 yards     Par 35-36–71
• Course rating is 75.6 rating with a slope rating of 145 fron the championship tees. The course is part of a TPC network and is open to outside play.  It also sells local memberships.
• Long before golfers began traveling to TPC Deere Run, native Americans migrated there. They came to this western Illinois location for the bounty of wildlife, the proximity to the Rock River and for the natural beauty of rolling hills and wooded ravines.
• In more recent times, the property became Friendship Farm, one of the top Arabian horse breeding operations in the U.S. As a result, the property was maintained in its most natural beauty and provided a near perfect setting for the property’s destination today, a golf course that appears to have been here for over a 100 years.
• TPC Deere Run boasts a bit of old-time philosophy and feel to the golf course, which stretches to 7,213 yards, an intimidating length for a par-71 track. Some 74 bunkers are strategically placed throughout the course and vary in depth and shape. There are a few blind shots and chipping areas to confound the best players. There are gentle doglegs, requiring precision more than power.
• The natural features of the former horse farm high above the Rock River Valley have not been compromised and the Rock River is visible on nine holes. D.A. Weibring, the course designer, extracted a few trees (less than 20 percent), but he essentially left the property, with its dramatic pitches and rolls, intact. The course inhabits roughly 170 acres, but Weibring and design associate Chris Gray disturbed less than 60 acres during construction.
• In 2015 the TPC Deere Run was the 43rd hardest course (out of 52) on the PGA Tour playing to a 69.648 average.
• In 2014 the TPC Deere Run was the 42nd hardest course (out of 48) on the PGA Tour playing to a 69.764 average.
• In 2013 the TPC Deere Run was the 36th hardest course on the PGA Tour playing to a 69,397.
• So the course is easy, in 2015 1,803 birdies (along with 32 eagles) were made during the week, the 3rd most birdies made on any course on the PGA Tour last year.

Let’s take a look at key stats that are important for those playing at the John Deere:

This is based on the most vital stats from TPC Deere Run, based on data from last year’s John Deere and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2016.
The most important thing to realize about TPC Deere Run, is that it’s one of the rare courses on tour that benefits short hitters and those that hit it long have no real advantage, matter of fact those that hit it long have to throttle back a bit because they run out of fairway. The course plays at 7,268 hards but the fairways are always firm and get a lot of role. In a era in which courses have six or more par 4s over 450 yards, Deere Run only has three par 4s over 450 yards. On top of that all three par 5s are accessible in two even for the shorter hitters, so you can see why the winners ranks of late have short hitters like Zach Johnson, Steve Stricker and Sen O’Hair winning.
Lot’s of birdies are always made on the course, last year 1,803 were made with only Glen Abbey and TPC Louisiana seeing more birdies made. The greens are easy to read and do well on them so this course also caters to players who don’t putt very well. Now the tournament is being played six weeks later and that shouldn’t change anything because the fairways will still have a lot of run and the hot summer days will give the ball as much carry as it had before.
So in looking at our four categories, we see how much driving makes a difference. But instead of looking for those that hit it long, those that hit it short will at least have as much of a chance as the longer hitter. The fairways are easy to hit so driving accuracy means very little. Putting average is important because this is a course that is easy to putt, not much undulation in the greens so poor putters have a good chance this week. Last is birdies, those at the top will make a lot of them and it’s a requirement to win. The course is pretty easy, last year with played to an average of 69.65 so a shot and a half under par. It’s ranked 43rd hardest in a field of 52, but of the nine that have played easier only one course TPC Louisiana saw a full field play the course. Normally we would say that a non-marquee name will win, but that isn’t the case. In the last eight years we have seen Steve Stricker win three times, Jordan Spieth win twice along with Zach Johnson and Kenny Perry so the event has see some marquee champions.

*Driving Distance: Measurements off the tee to see who drives it the furthest or the shortest

*Driving Accuracy: Who hits the most fairways.

*Putting Average: The average number of putts in a round, based on the year.

*Birdies: Players that make the most birdies

One thing, on driving distance we re-ranked the players from shortest hitter being number one to the longest being last.

Players from this year’s field with stats from 2016:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

For the rest of the players, hit this link:

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the John Deere Classic:

Key stat for the winner:

Hitting lots of greens.  Since the course was first used in 2000, the winners have finished T-5th (Michael Clark II), 4th (David Goosett), 1st (J.P. Hayes), T-5th (Vijay Singh), T-23rd (Mark Hensby), T-2nd (Sean O’Hair) and T-2nd (John Senden) in greens hit showing that if you hit a lot of greens, you will do well.  Yes Jonathan Byrd finished T-25th in 2007 and Kenny Perry finished T-22nd in 2008, Steve Stricker was T-14th in 2009, T-11th in 2010, T-33rd in 2011, Zach Johnson was T26th in 2012 while Jordan Spieth was T34th in 2013 but Brian Harman was T-1st in 2014 with Jordan Spieth finishing T-33rd last year.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

• A stat that nobody will believe: You would be hard press to know how many top-20 world rank players have won the last 9 John Deere’s?  It’s 7, the only one’s not in the top-20 of the world rankings was Jordan Spieth (120th) in 2013 and Brian Harman (115) in 2014
• Even though the fairways aren’t that demanding, for J.P. Hayes (2002),Mark Hensby (2004) and Sean O’Hair (2005) this has proven to help in there victories.  For the rest of the champions since 1997 they all are between 15th and 49th.  In 2010 Stricker was T-18th, hitting 41 of the 56 fairways, while in 2011 he was T-58th hitting just 36 of 56 fairways. Zach Johnson was T-31st with 41 of 56 while in 2013 Spieth was T-19th in greens hit with 43 of 56.  In 2014 Brian Harman was T-8th hitting 45 of 56 fairways while last year Jordan Spieth was 39th of 56 and ranked T-60th.
• Being in the lead after the third round doesn’t guarantee a victory, especially at the John Deere.  Since 1995 only eight players won, David Toms in 1997, David Gossett in 2001, J.P. Hayes in 2002,  John Senden in 2006 , Kenny Perry in 2009, Steve Stricker in 2010/2011, Brian Harman in 2014 and Spieth in 2015.  In 2012 Zach Johnson was T-3rd going into the final round, while Jordan Spieth was T9th, six back of third round leader Daniel Summerhays in 2013.   So don’t count on the third round leader to win.
• The myth of the John Deere was always think an underdog or new player that has never won before will win the Deere.  In looking at the winners since the event moved to the TPC course in 2000 between then and 2007 only one true favorite Vijay Singh in 2003 was victorious.  But since the British Open charter went into effect you have marquee names like Kenny Perry in 2008, Steve Stricker in 2009, ’10 & ’11 along with Zach Johnson and Jordan Spieth winning.  So you can see how perks like a special charter can really change the outlook of a tournament.
• The tournament has the overall reputation of first time winners.  Since 1973, 20 rookie winners including eight of the last 16 (J.L. Lewis in 1999, Michael Clark in 2000, David Gossett in 2001, Mark Hensby in 2004, Sean O’Hair, John Senden in 2006, Jordan Spieth in 2013 and Brian Harman in 2014) have won the John Deere so even though the event has had proven champions win the last seven years you never know.
• One last important element, the winner this week will be making lot’s of birdies.  The TPC Deere Run gave up 1,676 birdies in 2007, 1,714 in 2008 and in 2009 along with 1,810 in 2010, 1,915 in 2011 (most of any course that year), 1,894 in 2012 (again the most on the PGA Tour in 2012), 1,930 in 2013 and 1,844 in 2014, the most of any course on the PGA Tour in ’14 while last year the course gave up 1,803 birdies.  So look for those that have a high birdie average for the year.
• The weather has been wet over the course of the last month in the Silvis area so the course will be soft and play longer.  It won’t be terrible this week,  Friday could have afternoon showers and thunder, but the weekend looks clear and sunny.  Also you never know this time of year, there could be pop-up thunderstorms in the afternoon.