BlogThe Barclays Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

It’s the homestretch of the 2015 PGA Tour season.  After 43 events spread over the last 11 months, for many their season is over.  Guys like Padraig Harrington, Retief Goosen, Geoff Ogilvy, Ernie Els, Ian Poulter, Hunter Mahan, Nick Watney and Davis Love III to name a few

Here is a list of the top-50 from last year’s FedEx cup list that have fallen from grace, going from FedEx glory last year to out of the playoffs this year:

Player                         Last year position          This year’s standings

• Steven Bowditch             20th                                         179th
• Matt Jones                       33rd                                        126th
• Pat Perez                         45th                                        222nd
• Brendon Todd                  46th                                         212th
• Brendon de Jonge           46th                                         156th
• Hunter Mahan                 49th                                          183rd

On the other end of the spectrum, for 125 players they can enjoy some added glory along with putting a few more dollars in their pockets through the FedEx Cup bonus pool.

Of course, the PGA Tour will talk about how much everyone has a chance this week.  The reality of this is for players who are 100 in the rankings like Jonas Blixt to Seung-Yul Noh, who is in the 125th position, they have to run the table and win at least once and be in the top-five just to make it into the Tour Championship.  Still the points are more in their favor than the first couple of years when the rankings favored the leader.

Just look at this chart of past winners of the FedEx Cup standings, and you can see that Billy Horschel in 2014 is the highest ranked player at the start of the playoffs that won it.  Last year Jordan Spieth became the first leader going into the playoffs to win since Tiger Woods did it in 2009.

Year – FedEx winner        position going into playoffs

• 2015 – Jordan Spieth                 1st
• 2014 – Billy Horschel                69th
• 2013 – Henrik Stenson              9th
• 2012 – Brandt Snedeker           19th
• 2011 – Bill Haas                        15th
• 2010 – Jim Furyk                       3rd
• 2009 – Tiger Woods                   1st
• 2008 – Vijay Singh                      7th
• 2007 – Tiger Woods                   1st

So the reality is that you have to be in the top-69 to win this race.  For more on the scenarios of what could happen, the PGA Tour has done a great chart to help those figure it out.

One thing for sure, the PGA Tour has the format down to a fair system and we will have a great four weeks of golf.

Now this is the PGA Tour’s take on this, I have a different opinion on all of this.

My take on the playoffs:

When FedEx Cup Playoffs were introduced in 2007, the PGA Tour had a big problem.  The season was very long, going from January through November.  After the PGA Championship, the marquee names didn’t play much until the last event in November at the Tour Championship.  The big problem PGA Tour commissioner Tim Finchem had, with new TV contracts he wasn’t going to get a network to do the telecasts in September, October and November, nobody wanted to buck Football.  He also had to spice up the way people look at a year for the Networks, he needed something more than player of the year and the money race.

So Finchem was looking for some way of cutting the season down so that he could put a proper period on the season before Football started.  NASCAR had a point system which got racers to a playoff system, and Finchem got FedEx to buy into the system.  It was a year long point system that players qualified for a series of four playoff events, with the top-30 going to the Tour Championship so that the “best player” of the year would be found.  Before it was the player who won the most money, Finchem just about scraped the money race and came up with a point system.

The only problem was that the PGA Tour sold this as a year-long system in which it would be just as important getting points in the first event as the last event.

Frankly in my eyes it has turned into a joke.  How can you justify players getting “valuable” FedEx Cup points in events like the Frys.com Open or the RBC Heritage or the Travelers.  It’s not important for week in, week out events.  In a way watching a players points grow was like watching grass grow, nobody including players really care during the year.

So how do you make it exciting, year round?  Right now the playoffs are four weeks in which the hottest player is usually the winner.  So let’s not make it a four-week affair.  What if instead of having four playoff events, you have a playoff event every ten weeks or so.  So after the 13 Fall and west coast events, you add up the points and have your first playoff event with between 70 and 90 players.  You then award points based on the finishes of that event.  After that playoff event, the next event rolls over to everyone with zero points and you go ten weeks or so to like Zurich in New Orleans.  Again the top point getters are in the second playoff event, with points award in that playoff event.  You then have another playoff event between the U.S. Open and British Open like at Greenbrier.  Again after the third playoff event, again everything is zero out and you go to six or seven events before you have the fourth playoff event the week before the Tour Championship.  Again points are given at this fourth playoff event, and you take all four of the playoff events, total up the points and invite the top-30 to play in your final playoff at the Tour Championship.  So instead of four straight weeks of playoffs, you stagger them over the course of the year and end it with the fourth playoff event followed by the Tour Championship.

Under this system you will see players think more about the playoff events and you will see players in more events in the week or two before a playoff.  This then places importance on the whole year.  You will probably get the same hot golfer winning at the Tour Championship, but things will be more interesting.  I have touched on the surface on this.

I love this concept, and it makes each event during the year more important in getting points.

Just my take on these very boring playoff events.

Tournament information:

This is the 50th annual Barclays. Originally dubbed the Westchester Classic, the tournament has undergone a slew of name changes over the years. Just a decade after Jack Nicklaus captured the inaugural tournament in thrilling fashion back in 1967, the tournament became the American Express Westchester Classic.

Three years later, in 1979, American Express pulled out as title sponsor and the event became known as the Manufacturers Hanover Westchester Classic. The name lasted until 1990, when Buick became the title sponsor. In 2005, Barclays took over as chief sponsor of the event.

The Barclays, usually played the week before or after the U.S. Open in June, was shifted to the middle of August to accommodate being the first event in the FedEx Cup playoffs.

The first year of the playoffs,  Westchester was used and Steve Stricker won.  Since then the Barclays has moved away from Westchester, and it looks like it will never go back. Lot’s of reasons for it not ever coming back, but most of them were because of the logistics and not because of the course itself.  The future of the Barclays is courses like Ridgewood, Plainfield, Liberty National and now Bethpage, which held the 2012 Barclays and is the home this year.  Last year it was played at Plainfield Country Club for the second time.  Future plans has Glen Oaks Club in Old Westbury, New York in 2017, mainly to get it away from the New York which will have the Presidents Cup at Liberty Nationals.  Here is a look at the sites of the Barclays, which loses Barclay’s as a sponsor and will have Northern Trust take over.

• 2017 – Glen Oaks Club
• 2018 – Ridgewood Country Club
• 2019 – Liberty National Golf Club
• 2020 – Plainfield Country Club
• 2021 – Bethpage State Park (Black Course)
• 2022 – Liberty National Golf Club

Course information:

• Bethpage Black
• Farmingdale, N.Y.
• 7,468 yards     Par 36-35–71

In 1996, when the USGA announced the selection of Bethpage State Park’s Black Course as the site of the 2002 U.S. Open, the choice was hailed as a major breakthrough for the common man. Only two previous U.S. Open courses were not private facilites, Pebble Beach and Pinehurst No. 2.  The appeal at the time was that Bethpage would be the first “municipal” course, which means it’s a true public golf course to hold the U.S. Open.  For years St. Andrews, another true municipal course has held the British Open so it was a big deal.  In the 20 years since, Torrey Pines joined Bethpage as the two municipal courses to hold the U.S. Open.

The facilities at Bethpage consist of a state park with five courses in the middle. When the project was first considered in the early 1930s, a private club was already on the property. The club was called the Lenox Hills C.C., designed by Devereux Emmet. This would become the Green Course. At the time, three more courses would be built: the Blue, Red and Black courses. They would be built by A.W. Tillinghast.  With the advent of the Great Depression, Bethpage became a model for the work relief project. The Green, Red and Blue courses opened in August of 1935, with the Black opening the following year.

While the Black Course is considered a Tillinghast creation, it is doubtful he had anything to do with the actual building of it. Yes, he did the designs and drawings. However, some historians say that Tillinghast never spent a day at Bethpage after the drawings were completed, and the workers took the drawings and did the best they could to follow his plans.

Two unusual things about the Black Course stand out. One, it is that is a “walking only” course; golf carts are not allowed. Two, there is a sign near the first tee warning about the difficulty of the course, saying that it is a course for “highly-skilled golfers.”  This is not the norm for municipal courses which in general are much easier and appealing for high handicap golfers.

Bethpage was thought to be a regular of the USGA when they went back to it in 2009 after hosting the 2002 U.S. Open.  But that was when both Winged Foot and Shinnecock were out of favor with the USGA.  But with those relationships getting good again and future Opens being held on those courses, the need for another New York area course because unnecessary.  But with the USGA going away, the PGA of America has step into the picture and will play the PGA Championship on the course in 2019 and the Ryder Cup in 2024.

Let’s take a look at key stats that are important for those playing at the Bethpage:

This is based on the most vital stats from Bethpage, based on data from the 2012 Barclays when the course was last used on the PGA Tour and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2016.

Bethpage is an A.W. Tillinghast on record even though many feel it is doubtful he had anything to do with the actual building of it. Yes, he did the designs and drawings. However, some historians say that Tillinghast never spent a day at Bethpage after the drawings were completed, and the workers took them and did the best they could to follow his plans.
It doesn’t matter, the course is a gem and probably the finest municipal golf course in America. Now before people jump down my throat saying, hey places like Pebble Beach, Pinehurst and Bandon Dunes are “municipal” courses because they are opened to the public, they aren’t. Municipal are courses run by a local or state government, in the case of Bethpage it’s run by the state of New York. Yes, people could say that Torrey Pines is a better course, it’s run by the city of San Diego. It’s a very scenic course and has held a U.S. Open, but for regular challenges, Bethpage is the best.
Despite being a par 70 for the U.S. Open, for the Barclays, the course will play to a par 71 as the 7th hole will be a par 5 which makes the course to par easier. It also plays an important because it means more bombers will be able to take the par 5s apart and make low scores on them.
The trick to the course is getting it in the fairway and hitting lots of greens. Since the course is “public” the greens are fairly flat and don’t have much roll in them, thus giving a poor putter a chance. You can see this in action as one of the worst all-time putters on the PGA Tour is Lucas Glover who won the U.S. Open at Bethpage in 2009. Another example is the 2012 winner Nick Watney, who is having lots of problems finishing 202 in the FedEx Cup standings and won’t be a part of it this year. He is considered a below par putter, averaging right around 130th in putting since 2012. So you can see, a poor putter can do well on this course.
Still, you have to get to the greens, and the course is filled with hazards. One is not fairway bunkers, sand in the fairway only appears on 4 holes, #6, 10, 15 and 16. The course is tightly tree-lined with rough, but since the summer has been so hot the rough won’t be full and lush as officials would have wanted it. So the course will appeal to bombers, but there are some hazards for them. Holes 6, 9, 12, 13, 14 and 18 have bend and fairways that run out so long hitters need to throttle back with possible long irons on the holes to make sure they are position for shots into the green. So there are some hazards and dangers to driving at Bethpage. Now there are bunkers around the greens, 32 of them, but they aren’t wicket like the greenside bunkers at Oakmont or even Baltusrol. But with many of the greens risen, missing them means tough pitches to the hole, this will be the challenge for the players this week. Despite this don’t think the course is a pushover, it’s so unique that the PGA of America will hold the 2019 PGA Championship and the 2014 Ryder Cup on the course. Both the PGA and the USGA set up courses harder than the PGA Tour, so that is part of the secret. Tiger had a winning score of 3 under at the 2002 U.S. Open; Lucas Glover was 4 under in 1999 while Nick Watney shot 10 under at the 2012 Barclays when the field average was 71.72 (three-quarters of a shot over par). I can see the winning score going as low as 14 under this year, many because of the hot weather before the event. Also playing in the equation will be the fact that the New York area, which has been stuck in high temperatures with high humidity will see that break this week with the summer’s best weather for the region.

So will every phase of the game be examined at Bethpage? Probably not for those playing well, I can see a lot of birdies and around a dozen players breaking par for the 72 holes.
So in looking at our four categories, our first is Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. This is going to be the most important item and frankly, go to the top and sort through it, I would say that someone in the top-30 will win this week. Now in 2012 they didn’t have Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, so we have to look at several stats. It ranked T-28th in driving distance for the year on the PGA Tour, it was 27th in driving accuracy and 18th in Greens hit. For the U.S. Open in 2009, it ranked 6th in driving distance, 24th in driving accuracy and 5th in greens hit. Again that greens hit becomes important, in 2012 the winner Nick Watney was T-2nd, in 2009 Lucas Glover was 4th and in 2002 Tiger Woods was 1st.
Our second stat is scrambling, lot’s of players will miss greens at Bethpage and will have to get it up and down. In the 2009 Barclays, the course ranked 13th in scrambling while Watney was T39th, Glover in 2009 was 19th and Tiger was 2nd in 2002.
Our third stat is putting inside of 10 feet, yes this will be substantial because the greens will be flat with tiny undulation. One problem for the players, the greens are poa aunna and will be bumpy in the afternoon. Still, the winner will come close to making 100% of his putts from 10 feet and in.
Out fourth category is par 5 average. I see this as being a critical stat with three par 5s this week. Look for the winner to be in the 10 under range for the week.

This is the first leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs, so those toward the bottom need to play well or sit out a month. But at Bethpage, the course will be for the taking of many of the players, and I can see some excellent scoring.  For those seeing 121 players below and wondering which one is missing, it’s Henrik Stenson who was 1 rounds short of getting “official” stats.

*Strokes Gained tee-to-green: A combination of driving distance, accuracy and greens hit this will tell you who plays the best from tee to green which will be important this week.

*Scrambling: The percent of time a player misses the green in regulation, but still makes par or better.

*Putting inside 10 feet: Very easy, counts every putt from ten feet in to see who makes the most.

*Par 5 Average: How players do on par 5s, who plays them the best.

Players from this year’s field with stats from 2016:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

For the rest of the players, hit this link:

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at Bethpage:

A player that drives the ball long and straight and will make almost all of his putts inside 8 feet.  That is very easy to say, is there a human being that can do that?  Yes there will be a few but we won’t know it until the weekend.

Key stat for the winner:

• The Barclay’s has always been a test of survival and maybe that’s why in the 49-year history of the event it’s 42 champions have won 64 majors.
• Hitting greens in regulation will be paramount. The tight venue will require good ball control, which will result in hitting lots of greens. Look for the winner to hit a plethora of greens in regulation this week, that was the way Tiger Woods won at Bethpage in 2002 (53 of 72, rank 1st).
• Putting will be an important roll this week, since the greens are flat this let’s players that are not the best in putting to do well.  Lucas Glover may be one of the best iron players on the PGA Tour but he is a very poor putter on the PGA Tour but he was able to win the 2009 U.S. Open despite all of this.

Is there any rhyme or reason for a player to win this week?

• Wisdom says that a player with a lot of experiences will win but since this course is not a well know entity a newcomer could do well.
• Players ranking between about 90th and 125th have extra incentive because they need a good showing to stay alive in the lucrative FedExCup, with the top 100 moving on the following week’s Deutsche Bank Championship. In 2009, Heath Slocum barely made the field at The Barclays but his victory helped him to ultimately finish eighth in the FedExCup. In 2013, Martin Laird was 95th heading into the week and lost in a playoff, eventually finishing 11th in the FedExCup. In 2014 we saw Billy Horschel begin the FedEx Cup playoffs ranked 69th and go on to win it.  So anything is possible.
• This week is a mix of tour stars like Jordan Spieth, Jason Day, Justin Rose, Bubba Watson and Rory McIlroy with a lot of first-time winners and a lot of non-winners.  In past years winning had a lot to do with the weather, when it’s good the tour stars seem to shine but in bad weather it becomes a long shot delight.  Also in past Barclays look for those who play well with the lead, 26 of the 46 winners since 1970 have held the lead going into the final round and went on to win.  Since 1989, 16 of those 27 third round leaders have won but since leaving Westchester the third round leader has won just once, last year with Jason Day (2011 was reduce to 54 holes).
• Lastly, the outlook for the tournament couldn’t be any better as sunny skies with temperatures hovering in the high 80s will be around all four days with very little chance of rain.  This is a change for the area which has experience high temperatures and humidity for over a month.  This will mean that Bethpage will be very fast, the fairways will have a lot of roll and the greens will be hard and tough to hold shots.