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BlogDeutsche Bank Preview and Picks

Deutsche Bank Championship

September 2nd – 5th, 2016

TPC Boston

Norton, MA

Par: 71 / Yardage: 7,242

Purse: $8.5 million

with $1,530,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Rickie Fowler

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This week’s field includes:

 

Of the 98 players in the field, 63 of the players are in the top-100 of the money list. The field includes 37 of the top 50 in the latest Official World Rankings, with ten top-ten players in the field: Those in the field include #1 Jason Day, #2 Dustin Johnson, #3 Jordan Spieth, #4 Henrik Stenson, #5 Rory McIlroy, #6 Adam Scott, #7 Bubba Watson, #8 Rickie Fowler, #9 Patrick Reed and #10 Justin Rose.  From 11 to 25 there are 14 of the 15 with #12 Sergio Garcia, #13 Phil Mickelson, #14 Branden Grace, #15 Matt Kuchar, #16 Hideki Matsuyama, #17 Louis Oosthuizen, #18 Brooks Koepka, #19 Jimmy Walker, #20 Russell Knox, #21 J.B. Holmes and #22 Jim Furyk, #23 Brandt Snedeker, #24 Zach Johnson, #25 Emiliano Grillo.  Between 26 and 50 there are 13 of the 25, they are #26 Charl Schwartzel, #29 Scott Piercy, #30 Paul Casey, #31 Justin Thomas, #32 Kevin Kisner, #33 Kevin Na, #34 Kevin Chappell, #35 Bill Haas, #38 Daniel Berger, #40 William McGirt, #43 Ryan Moore, #47 Charley Hoffman and #49 Marc Leishman.

Last year there was 37 players from the top-50.

The field includes 98 of the top-100 from the FedEx Cup rankings (Danny Willett is defending his European Masters title, Kevin Na’s wife is having a baby).

The field includes all 25 players in the top 25 on this year’s PGA Tour money list. 

The field includes 10 of the 12 different past champions: Rickie Fowler (2015), Chris Kirk (2014), Henrik Stenson (2013), Rory McIlroy (2012), Webb Simpson (2011), Charley Hoffman (2010), Steve Stricker (2009), Vijay Sing (2008 & ’04), Phil Mickelson (2007) and Adam Scott (2003)

A perfect way for fantasy golfers to check on the past performance of all the players in The Barclays field is our performance chart listed by average finish.  Another way to check who is the best is through a special formula worked out in Golfstats that gives us the best average performances at The Barclays  field in the last five years or check out our sortable 8-year glance at The Barclays  field.

A good cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmakers in England.

Another cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmaker in Las Vegas.

**NOTE**

One thing to look for is our new GOLFstats IQ.  For those that play in fantasy golf it’s a perfect way to help you pick those players in Draft Kings and Victiv games.  You can customize the list of those in the tournaments, to look back a couple or many years of tournament stats and you can go back a couple or ten weeks prior to the tournament.  On top of that, all the stats are fully sortable to help you pick your six players, we even give you their value for the week to help you chose.

That’s GOLFstats IQ, give it a try and tell us what you think of it

24/7 GOLF is no more.  We have retired the name and the app for a new and better app for golf.  So check out

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So if you own a Iphone or a Ipad we have developed a perfect app called GOLF IQ.

 

Time to look at our who’s hot and who isn’t:

Who’s Hot in the field for the Deutsche Bank Championship

Player Barclays Classic Wyndham Champ. John Deere Olympic Men’s Travelers Champ. PGA Champ. Canadian Open British Open Barbasol Champ. Scottish Open WGC Bridgestone Barracuda Champ. Quicken Loans
Patrick Reed
(382.67 pts)
Win
(198)
T22
(28)
DNP T11
(39)
T11
(26)
T13
(49.33)
DNP T12
(25.33)
DNP T10
(13.33)
52
(0)
DNP T39
(3.67)
Jason Day
(341 pts)
T4
(120)
DNP DNP DNP DNP 2
(133.33)
T14
(24)
T22
(18.67)
DNP DNP T3
(45)
DNP DNP
Emiliano Grillo
(297.33 pts)
T2
(150)
DNP DNP T8
(50)
DNP T13
(49.33)
T43
(4.67)
T12
(25.33)
DNP DNP T14
(18)
DNP DNP
Henrik Stenson
(266.17 pts)
WD
(-7.5)
DNP DNP 2
(100)
DNP T7
(73.33)
DNP Win
(88)
DNP T13
(12.33)
DNP DNP DNP
Ryan Moore
(239.17 pts)
T7
(82.5)
T53
(0)
Win
(132)
DNP T17
(22)
T70
(0)
DNP T46
(2.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Justin Rose
(218.5 pts)
T31
(28.5)
DNP DNP Win
(132)
DNP T22
(37.33)
DNP T22
(18.67)
DNP DNP T46
(2)
DNP DNP
Dustin Johnson
(197.33 pts)
T18
(48)
DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-13.33)
T2
(66.67)
T9
(30)
DNP DNP Win
(66)
DNP DNP
Jhonattan Vegas
(197 pts)
T22
(42)
DNP DNP T50
(1)
DNP T22
(37.33)
Win
(88)
DNP T4
(26.67)
DNP DNP T53
(0)
T44
(2)
Adam Scott
(187.33 pts)
T4
(120)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T18
(42.67)
DNP T43
(4.67)
DNP DNP T10
(20)
DNP DNP
Jimmy Walker
(185.33 pts)
CUT
(-15)
CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP Win
(176)
T14
(24)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP T16
(17)
DNP DNP
Hideki Matsuyama
(179 pts)
CUT
(-15)
T3
(90)
DNP DNP DNP T4
(106.67)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP T42
(4)
DNP DNP
Johnson Wagner
(176.67 pts)
T22
(42)
T5
(70)
T5
(70)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T43
(4.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP DNP DNP
Matt Kuchar
(176.33 pts)
T64
(0)
DNP DNP 3
(90)
T17
(22)
CUT
(-13.33)
T9
(30)
T46
(2.67)
DNP DNP T3
(45)
DNP DNP
Si Woo Kim
(173.33 pts)
CUT
(-15)
Win
(132)
DNP DNP T25
(16.67)
CUT
(-13.33)
T23
(18)
DNP 2
(33.33)
DNP DNP T35
(5)
CUT
(-3.33)
Gary Woodland
(173 pts)
T4
(120)
DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP T38
(8)
CUT
(-13.33)
DNP T12
(25.33)
DNP DNP DNP 2
(33.33)
T21
(9.67)
Brandt Snedeker
(172.83 pts)
T48
(3)
T3
(90)
DNP DNP DNP T56
(0)
T5
(46.67)
T22
(18.67)
DNP DNP T21
(14.5)
DNP DNP
Rickie Fowler
(170.83 pts)
T7
(82.5)
T22
(28)
DNP T37
(13)
DNP T33
(22.67)
DNP T46
(2.67)
DNP DNP T10
(20)
DNP T44
(2)
Phil Mickelson
(168.67 pts)
T13
(55.5)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T33
(22.67)
DNP 2
(66.67)
DNP T13
(12.33)
T27
(11.5)
DNP DNP
Jordan Spieth
(167.67 pts)
T10
(60)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T13
(49.33)
DNP T30
(13.33)
DNP DNP T3
(45)
DNP DNP
Sean O’Hair
(156.67 pts)
T2
(150)
T22
(28)
CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T44
(2)
Russell Knox
(152 pts)
T60
(0)
DNP DNP DNP Win
(88)
T22
(37.33)
DNP T30
(13.33)
DNP T10
(13.33)
54
(0)
DNP DNP
Bubba Watson
(147.5 pts)
T13
(55.5)
DNP DNP T8
(50)
T25
(16.67)
T60
(0)
DNP T39
(7.33)
DNP DNP T14
(18)
DNP DNP
Martin Laird
(142.67 pts)
T18
(48)
T63
(0)
DNP DNP T62
(0)
DNP T2
(66.67)
DNP T62
(0)
DNP DNP T7
(18.33)
T21
(9.67)
Kevin Na
(142.5 pts)
CUT
(-15)
T10
(40)
T8
(50)
DNP DNP T22
(37.33)
DNP T22
(18.67)
DNP DNP T27
(11.5)
DNP DNP
Jim Furyk
(138.5 pts)
T41
(13.5)
T10
(40)
DNP DNP T5
(46.67)
T73
(0)
13
(24.67)
T59
(0)
DNP DNP T42
(4)
DNP T21
(9.67)

How Player Rankings are Computed

Who’s Not Hot in the field for the Deutsche Bank Championship

Player Barclays Classic Wyndham Champ. John Deere Olympic Men’s Travelers Champ. PGA Champ. Canadian Open British Open Barbasol Champ. Scottish Open WGC Bridgestone Barracuda Champ. Quicken Loans
Bryce Molder
(-48.33 pts)
CUT
(-15)
CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP T56
(0)
CUT
(-13.33)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Jason Bohn
(-23.33 pts)
77
(0)
CUT
(-10)
T56
(0)
DNP DNP CUT
(-13.33)
DNP DNP T62
(0)
DNP DNP DNP DNP
James Hahn
(-17.17 pts)
CUT
(-15)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
T70
(0)
DNP T68
(0)
DNP DNP 41
(4.5)
DNP T64
(0)
Smylie Kaufman
(-16.83 pts)
CUT
(-15)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-13.33)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP T27
(11.5)
DNP T10
(13.33)
Charles Howell III
(-15 pts)
CUT
(-15)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T75
(0)
Patton Kizzire
(-13.67 pts)
CUT
(-15)
T53
(0)
DNP DNP DNP T49
(1.33)
T70
(0)
T68
(0)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T57
(0)
Harold Varner III
(-11.67 pts)
T60
(0)
CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-13.33)
CUT
(-6.67)
T66
(0)
DNP DNP DNP DNP 7
(18.33)
Colt Knost
(-5 pts)
CUT
(-15)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
T70
(0)
CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP DNP 3
(30)
DNP
Freddie Jacobson
(-4.67 pts)
CUT
(-15)
T33
(17)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
T73
(0)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Chad Campbell
(-0.67 pts)
CUT
(-15)
T57
(0)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T26
(16)
DNP T35
(5)
DNP DNP DNP DNP

How Player Rankings are Computed

The Buzz:

So it’s the second leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs, and only one exempt player is not participating, Masters champion Danny Willett.  It makes sense him not playing, he was 86th in the FedEx Cup so the odds on him going fair was slim.  On top of that he is the defending champion at the Omega European Masters in Switzerland so he decides to play there instead of here.  A couple of things about the playoffs that are a bit of a turnoff, last week Patrick Reed won at the Barclays.  With the win it guarantees Reed a top-five points ranking heading into the Tour Championship, meaning that he controls his own destiny and will win the FedEx Cup with a victory at East Lake.  So if Reed had chosen not to play this week and at the BMW, he would of still been able to win the FedEx Cup at the Tour Championship.  These playoffs are getting more to do with the Tour Championship than anything else, to win the playoffs you just about have to win at East Lake which I don’t understand.

One last item:

On Monday Ryder Cup captain Davis Love III found out who his top-8 players would be.  One thing that didn’t happen, because of the poor back nine for Rickie Fowler he will now need a captains picks.  The big change, Love has four captains picks and doesn’t have to make three of them until the end of the BMW.  The fourth player won’t be announced until the Tour Championship ends Sept. 25 and players head for Hazeltine for the Ryder Cup the following week.  So Love will have the hottest players and that should be an advantage for him.  He also said he has hired a company to provide statistics on various players — how they would fare at a big course like Hazeltine, how they would partner and how they would fare depending on the team they are playing.

I would only say this about the whole Ryder Cup system, if the Americans lose again, they have lost the last three matches in a row I would say that lot’s of interest will decrease with this.  American’s like winners and frankly our Ryder Cup team are not winners.  Here is a frighting bit of information to show how bad it’s gotten.  My daughter will be 23 years old at the end of October.  In her lifetime, America has won the Ryder Cup just twice, in 1999 and 2008 the same number of wins the Great Britain and Ireland team won in the first 28 years of the Ryder Cup.

Tournament information:

This is the 14th annual Deutsche Bank Championship. Initially created with the help of IMG, the Tiger Woods Foundation, and the PGA Tour, the Deutsche Bank Championship’s main goal was to raise money for the Tiger Woods Foundation.

As the tournament is held over Labor Day weekend, it has the distinction along with the Hyundai Tournament of Champions to be the only events on the PGA Tour to conclude on a Monday.

Though the event lacks history, its short stint on the PGA Tour has produced some monumental happenings. Most notably: the rivalry between Vijay Singh and Tiger Woods. In 2004, Tiger and Vijay battled down to the final hole. Ultimately, Singh’s 69 was enough to give him the tournament title and the World’s Number One ranking, dethroning Woods after five years of dominance.

In 2006, the rivalry was renewed, and this time, Woods was not to be denied. Singh shot a course record 61 in the third round going into the final round with a three-shot lead over Woods.  Despite shooting a 68, he was still a loser as Woods shot 63 to overcome a three-shot deficit and win the title.

The 2007 event is also memorable with Phil Mickelson holding off the challenge of Tiger Woods, Arron Oberholser and Brett Wetterich.

In 2008 Vijay Singh shot a final round 63 and cruised to a five-shot victory which paved the way for him to win the FedEx Cup.

Since the start of the FedEx Cup, it’s been the second playoff event.  Of the four, this and the Tour Championship are the only events played each year on the same course.  Over the years, it’s grown a nice following as players love the course, the location and the week.

Course information:

The TPC of Boston was opened in June of 2002, it was formerly used for charcoal production for the jewelry, brick and iron industries as well as lumber for ship construction.  Arnold Palmer designed the course, it is your typical TPC layout, very long and pretty generous off the tee.  There are several doglegs that can be carried by long hitters so again advantage to those that hit it long.  The greens are large, and several have multiple tiers making putting more challenging.  But over the years the course has changed dramatically.

As players matriculate back to Boston each year for the Deutsche Bank Championship, they were met with changes made by Gil Hanse and Brad Faxon.  In 2009 changes to the green area and mounding around the 2nd hole.  In 2008 players saw changes to the 4th, 7th and 16th holes.  The changes weren’t as big, mostly cosmetic like mounds being added to the right side of nine.  Also, changes were made to the chipping areas around No. 1 and No. 10 greens. Bunkers also were altered in shape at the fourth and 11th holes. At the latter, a 230-yard par-3, and island of turf was installed in the middle of the large front-right bunker.

The changes made for the 2007 event was well received by the players, most of them liked making the 4th hole a possible drivable par 4. It’s a step in the right direction because in previous years they have been very luke warm on the Arnold Palmer design course.

There are no real major changes to the course for this year.  The course has pretty much been the same for a couple of years now expect they did add 50 years to the 4th hole.

Still the course is for the taking, last year the course played to a 70.96 average and was the 19th toughest of the 52 courses used.  So you can see, you have to go low to survive this week.

Let’s take a look at key stats that are important for those playing at the TPC Boston:

This is based on the most vital stats from TPC Boston, based on data from the 2015 Barclays when the course was last used on the PGA Tour and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2016.

TPC Boston is a Arnold Palmer design that has be reworked by Gil Hanse and Brad Faxon. The course has a touch of links style as it plays firm and fast, but it’s still a course for long hitters as in it’s 13 year history players like Adam Scott, Vijay Singh, Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson, Charley Hoffman, Rory McIlroy and Rickie Fowler. All of these players hit it long. On the other end of the spectrum, short hitters like Olin Browne, Webb Simpson and Steve Stricker have won, many because of their awesome around the green game. Still the focus should be on long hitters and ball strikers having a big advantage. Of the 13 champions, nine of them ranked in the top-ten in greens hit, so if a long hitter is on his game he does have a big advantage. Another thing you won’t see a poor putter win here, the greens are 6,00 square feet and have a lot of undulation in them so look for a player who is in the zone inside of ten feet.
Now while the par 4s play easy, last year it ranked T-30th in par 4 scoring average the par 5s are some of the toughest on the PGA Tour. Last year they played to a 4.81 scoring average and ranked T-6th on tour, so they aren’t layups like many other courses.
Now things are going to be tricky this week, there are several storms off the Atlantic coast in between Florida and the outer banks of North Carolina that could play havoc on this event with bad weather on Sunday and Monday, so the players will have to be prepared for anything. Right now long range forecasts call for a nice weekend with cloudy skies and temperatures in the high 70s.
So in looking at our four categories, our first is Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. This is going to be the most important item again since a player that hits it long, straight and then hits a lot of greens won’t be beat, just like last week at the Barclays when Patrick Reed was 3rd in strokes gained tee-to-green.

Our second stat is strokes Gained around-the-green, because not only is scrambling important but there are a lot of greenside bunkers so getting them up and down will be important.
Our third stat is putting inside of 10 feet, yes this will be substantial because the greens have lot’s of undulation so making those putts in between five to ten feet is important. Our fourth category is par 4 average, last year it ranked T-30th in this stat which means that players need to play the par 4s low to win.

This is the first leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs, so those toward the bottom need to play well or sit out a month. But at Bethpage, the course will be for the taking of many of the players, and I can see some excellent scoring.
*Strokes Gained tee-to-green: A combination of driving distance, accuracy and greens hit this will tell you who plays the best from tee to green which will be important this week.

*Strokes Gained around-the-green: A combination of sand saves and scrambling to see who gets it up and down saving par the most.

*Putting inside 10 feet: Very easy, counts every putt from ten feet in to see who makes the most.

*Par 4 Average: How players do on par 4s, who plays them the best.

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

For the rest of the players, hit this link:

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Deutsche Bank Championship:

Key stat for the winner:

  • Now in past years it was obvious that this course was a long hitters haven.  Last year we had Rickie Fowler win, he hits it long.  In 2014 & ’13 Chris Kirk and Henrik Stenson won, both who are in the middle of all driving distance stats but in 2012, we had Rory McIlroy, in 2010 we had Charley Hoffman.  In 2008, it was Vijay Singh while in 2007, it was Phil Mickelson and Tiger Woods in 2006, all very long hitters  Still don’t rule out the short hitters, just look at 2009 winner Steve Stricker, the same with Webb Simpson in 2011.  But he isn’t the only one, the 2005 champion Olin Browne is one of the shorter hitters on tour and 2003 runner-up Rocco Mediate is also short.  In the same breath, it’s safe to say that accuracy doesn’t pay on this course.  In it’s 13 years of being played, of the 164 players that have finished in the top-ten of the tournament, only 38 have been in the top-ten in driving accuracy.  One more key driving accuracy stat, of the 52 courses used on the PGA Tour it ranked 27th in driving accuracy that means that you can be wild on this course.
  • Looking at the stats from its 13-year history, look for those with sharp iron games to produce the best score.  Look for a smart player that doesn’t attack the holes but plays placement golf to win.  Of the 13 winners, three led the greens hit category (winner Henrik Stenson led in 2013) while the first eight of nine winners were in the top-ten.  Last year Fowler was 6th in greens hit.
  • Since the event doesn’t start until Friday, players will have an extra day to get use to the course.  Look for those that are starting to practice on Tuesday to rule the roost.
  • The greens are 6,000 square feet, which is about average on the PGA Tour. They have a lot of undulation in them, and that could be one of the reasons why winners haven’t dominated the putting stats.
  • Looking for that one stat that jumps up and grabs you?  Par 4 average is the key here, TPC Boston is one of the easiest in par 4s.  Last year it was T-30th with a 4.01 average on it’s par 4s so look for players that play well on par 4s.  Last year Rickie Fowler was 9 under, Chris Kirk was 6 under on the Par 4s, in 2013 Henrik Stenson was the best playing them in 14 under par
  •  Interesting to note that Vijay Singh, Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy won the Deutsche Bank the month after taking the PGA Championship.  It’s also interesting to note that Deutsche Bank winners Woods, Singh and Adam Scott have also been runner-up here.  As for this year’s PGA Champion Jimmy Walker, you have to think he is chomping at the bit for Friday’s opening round.
  • Scrambling is a very important stat and one to look at.  Here is the rank of Deutsche Bank Championship winners between 2007-2014.

 

Year Winner                 Scrambling (rank)

2015 Rickie Fowler       78.95% (1st)

2014 Chris Kirk               80.77% (4)

2013 Henrik Stenson       81.82% (T-6)

2012 Rory McIlroy       70.83% (10)

2011 Webb Simpson           76.00% (5)

2010 Charley Hoffman 82.35% (2)

2009 Steve Stricker        73.91% (10)

2008 Vijay Singh                 76.92% (4)

2007 Phil Mickelson         86.36% (1)

Every winner in the playoff era finished in the top 10 in scrambling at TPC Boston.

Lastly, the outlook for the tournament couldn’t be any better, as the long range forecast calls for great weather the whole week of the event.  But with bad weather in the Caribbean you never know if this great weather forecast could get ugly.

 

 

Who to watch for at the Deutsche Bank Championship

Best Bets:

Dustin Johnson

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
T44 T27 T4 T42 T57 T4

Hope I am not sounding like a broken record but he is the best on a bombers course.

Jason Day

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
T12 T7 T13 T51 T3 T2 T19 T50

T4th at Barclays and 2nd at PGA Championship, he also hits it long and straight and could dominate on this course.

Adam Scott

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
T16 T53 T7 T8 T5 T73 T17 T50 T2

Leads strokes gained tee to green, winner in 2003 and I think he is ready to place his mark on the end of the season. Was T-4th last week.

Best of the rest:

Henrik Stenson

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
2 T26 Win T55

In the last three years has won and finished 2nd. He knows how to play the course and if he could get on a roll could do well.

Patrick Reed

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
T4 T74 T70

We have never seen anyone win the Barclays and win the Deutsche Bank. But Reed is a streaky player and could be the first to win back to back.

Rickie Fowler

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
Win T23 CUT T74 T52 T41

Now we have never seen anyone win back to back Deutsche Banks but Fowler is playing well and wants to make the Ryder Cup team. Look for him to do well.

Sergio Garcia

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
T4 T31 26 T5 T17

Probably the best tee to green guy, he has played well in this event and could do well this week.

Charley Hoffman

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
3 CUT T27 T26 T31 Win T27 T33 CUT CUT

Don’t forget about him, does play well at TPC Boston.

Solid contenders

Jordan Spieth

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
CUT T29 T4

Shouldn’t forget about him, did finish T-4th in 2013 and was T-10th last week.

Rory McIlroy

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
T29 T5 T47 Win T37

Easy to forget about him since his isn’t playing very well but he is always dangerous on a bombers course.

Jim Furyk

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
T4 T23 T27 T13 6 T37 T8 T7 T55 T35

Always like him, he will always play well and make sure he plays all 72 holes. He is overdue for a great week.

Matt Kuchar

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
T9 T29 T4 T35 T25 T11 T15 CUT T41 T27 T17

This is his type of course, surprised he hasn’t played any better on it.

Justin Rose

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
CUT T16 CUT T68 CUT T54 CUT T4 T27 T29

Won the Olympics but didn’t play great last week. Has never played well at TPC Boston so I don’t put much into him winning.

Long shots that could come through:

Billy Horschel

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
72 T2 T70

Name from the past, hasn’t played that great this year until the last two weeks.

Justin Thomas

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
T56

Guy has played well in the last month including a T-10th last week and a T-3rd at Travelers.

Emiliano Grillo

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
First time playing in this event

Guy could be a greet longshot, playing in this event for the first time but has the length to overpower TPC Boston.

Comments

  1. Your whose hot and whose not includes Jimmy Walker…your criteria needs adjusting. He is playing horrible in his two missed cuts

    Also, you pointed out scrambling to be important..”Every winner in the playoff era finished in the top 10 in scrambling at TPC Boston.”, but didn’t include it in your key stats grid. I use several different sites in determining my picks so I knew about scrambling. Just wished you had included it in the grid.
    Thanks

  2. Walker wasn’t playing very well before winning the PGA. You never know when a guy will hit a course at the right time, think Walker will do well.
    Sorry about not putting it on the grid, but it was in enough places including the key course stats that I thought it didn’t have to be on the grid. But it is mentioned.

  3. Harvey, how is my Jimmy Walker pick now???
    The mystery of the PGA Tour, you can miss a couple of cuts in a row and then win. TPC Boston is perfect for Walker, it’s all about the course.

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