BlogWGC-HSBC Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

Last year I wondered what the future of golf in China would be.  When this event became a WGC event, then added to the European Tour’s final series, things looked up for this event.  There were other professional events being played in China and it looked like the sky was the limit for golf on the European Tour.  But the landscape of golf in China is changing.   First golf is becoming extinct in China as the government is putting bans on club membership and shuttering golf course projects.  So frankly nobody knows what direction this is going other than folks are bailing out.

But for this tournament it looks rosy as last year HSBC signed on for another five years of this event.  So even with other tournaments going away, this one will be around.  With the new sponsorship, prize money has gone up another million dollars as the purse is $9.5 million with the winner getting $1.4 million and last place paying $40,000 I can see why the attendance is so good.

Still some top players like Jason Day and Justin Rose (both nursing injuries) aren’t here with good reasons, but Jordan Spieth, Brandt Snedeker, Kevin Chappell, Jim Furyk and Zach Johnson has pass this up.  Weird that two weeks ago Brandt Snedeker would play in a very small event in Fiji but pass on this.

Players to watch

Amazing that Justin Thomas won again last week.  Guess we should of seen that coming, he did finish T-8th in Napa but with the long flight from Napa  So does it set up well for him to play good this week in China, probably not.  Have to also advise against the hottest player Paul Casey who hasn’t played well in China his last two starts.  Now in talking about guys that have done well in past HSBC’s that I see playing well you have to look at last year’s winner Russell Knox and Dustin Johnson.  I also like Sergio Garcia who hit the ball well at the CIMB and could carry it over to this week.  In looking at a player that did well in Malaysia that could carry over to this week, watch Scott Piercy who finished T-10th at the CIMB with a very poor final round 72.

Tournament Information:

This event started in 2006 and played at Sheshan Golf Club.  Because of the big purse and the event giving out appearance money, most of the top players of the time including Tiger Woods played.  Tiger came close finishing second in it’s first year as David Howell won by three shots.  The event was part of the European Tour and despite being played in November was the leadoff event for the European Tour’s wrap-around season.  So the first event was played in November of 2005 but counted for the European Tour’s 2006 season.  It continued to grow for the next three years as more marquee names went to China and in November of 2008 the European Tour started it’s 2009 season with Sergio Garcia winning.  Right after the tournament, it became part of the World Golf Championship series, which help elevate it.  At the same time, the European Tour revamped the way they ended their season, so the event in November of 2009 was included in the 2009 European Tour season.  This created the problem of the same event being played twice in the same season.  Phil Mickelson won the November 2009 HSBC and despite the PGA Tour being part of the WGC was not considered an official PGA Tour event.

The tournament went on a bizarre three-year journey.  Beginning in 2010, the HSBC Champions counted as an official PGA Tour victory and offered a three-year exemption on the PGA Tour, provided the tournament was won by a PGA Tour member. Prize money, however, did not count toward the official PGA TOUR money list, even if a PGA Tour member won the tournament. Tournament winners during this timeframe include: 2010 – Francesco Molinari (unofficial PGA Tour win); 2011 – Martin Kaymer (unofficial PGA Tour win); 2012 – Ian Poulter (official PGA Tour win).

On the final day of the 2012 event, HSBC announced renewal of its title sponsorship, something it did last year.  With this announcement the HSBC became part of the PGA Tour’s FedExCup schedule.  It awarded official money and FedExCup points (and a three-year exemption) beginning in 2013 (which later changed to 2014 because the Tour went to a wrap-around schedule for events ending in 2013).  Sound confusing, it is so you just have to remember one thing.  The first “official” WGC-HSBC for the PGA Tour was the one played in November of 2013, but it counted for the 2014 PGA Tour season.  So this week’s event counts on the 2017 PGA Tour season and the 2016 European Tour season.  This year it won’t be a part of the final series, it was dropped because the top players on the Race to Dubai couldn’t get in so the tour realized that it favored the top stars.

Course information: 

The Sheshan Golf Club is a par-72 golf course that was designed by Robin Nelson and Neil Haworth and opened in 2004. Sheshan International Golf Club features beautiful tree-lined fairways and gentle rolling hills around 1000-year-old Gingko trees, calm waterways, and a spectacular natural quarry. Set in the shadow of the Basilica of our Lady of Sheshan Cathedral and surrounded by beautiful Italian Tuscan inspired villas, Sheshan provides a truly unique experience.  Although located in the city of Shanghai, the serene surroundings suggest a genuine feeling of seclusion and nature.

Featuring well-placed bunkers throughout the golf course along with, deep collection areas, beautiful water features, and undulating greens.  The natural forestation was integrated into the course design. 10,000 trees and natural foliage has been preserved. Two 1000-year-old ginko trees grace the 4th hole. 16 million cubic meters of dirt was moved to create elevation, bunkers and valleys. Sheshan provides a beautiful and challenging golf course for all, including the best Tour Professionals in the world and is considered one of the best courses in China.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the WGC-HSBC Champions:

Key stat for the winner:

Event will be played again at Sheshan after being played in 2012 at Mission Hills.  In the previous years held at Sheshan, there is no one stat that you can put your fingers on and say, geez this course favors such and such a player.  So we have to look at those that have played well before at Sheshan, one thing pops up.Bubba Watson had a great 2014 and five months after his China victory won the Masters in 2016.  Dustin Johnson and Ian Poulter were also very succesful before and after.  The same with defending champion Russell Knox, he won again on the PGA Tour over the summer  All the other champions also had the same thing going.  Look at Martin Kaymer in 2011, he had been playing well for two years, winning the PGA Championship.  In 2010, Francesco Molinari was putting the finishes touch on a great year, same with winners Phil Mickelson and Sergio Garcia.  So look for a player that has had a great 2013 to win this week.  So in a way the course favors a top notch player, someone that has won big events including other WGC events and majors.  The point is don’t be surprise to see either Dustin Johnson, Rory McIlroy or a Sergio Garcia do well.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

One thing that is for certain, look for a high ranked player to win.  The lowest-ranked player in the Official World Golf Ranking to win the HSBC Champions was Y.E. Yang, who was No. 77 when he won the event in 2006.  Here is a look at the HSBC champions over the years and how they ranked in the world rankings prior to victory:

• 2015, Russell Knox, No. 65
• 2014, Bubba Watson, No. 7
• 2013, Dustin Johnson, No. 23
• 2012, Ian Poulter, No. 26
• 2011, Martin Kaymer No. 6
• 2010, Francesco Molinari No. 30
• 2009, Phil Mickelson No. 2
• 2008, Sergio Garcia No. 3
• 2007, Phil Mickelson No. 2
• 2006, Y.E. Yang No. 77
• 2005, David Howell No. 19

Very interesting to see how Sheshan compared with the other courses on the PGA Tour last year.  In driving accuracy it ranked 19th, in green in regulation was 33rd hardest course.  In scrambling it was 38th while in overal putting average it ranked 43rd.  The course had a 70.58 scoring average which ranked 43rd but also meant the players averaged playing it a shot and a half per round under par.  So look for low scoring.

With tight fairways and lot’s of roll in them, accuracy is important but not a big key.  The more important factor in looking at past years is a player that can dominate the par 3s. It’s also interesting to note that last six champions at Sheshan (not including 2012 when it was played at Missing Hills) have been 10 under on the par 3s, in 2016 Russell Knox was 2 under, in 2015 Bubba Watson was even par, 2014 Dustin Johnson was 4 under, 2011 Martin Kaymer was 5 under, Francisco Molinari was even par in 2010 and Phil Mickelson was 1 under in 2009.

Last week in Malaysia the weather was good even with hot muggy conditions.  Things will be totally different this week as temperatures will be in the low 70s each day and showers every day of the championship.  It’s suppose to rain all day on Thursday with clearing skies the rest of the week  So look for those players that do great in wet weather conditions.

Again like we say, look for the player with the hot hand.  Those that played well at both the Safeway Open and the CIMB Classic could play well this week.