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BlogShriners Preview and Picks

Shriners Hospitals for Children Open

November 3rd – 6th, 2016

TPC Summerlin

Las Vegas, NV

Par: 71 / Yardage: 7,255

Purse: $6.6 million

with $1,200,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Smylie Kaufman

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This week’s field includes:

The field includes 28 of the top 100 and 7 of the top 50 in the latest Official World Rankings, with the highest rank player being #18 Jimmy Walker.  The other top 50 players are  #22 Brooks Koepka, #32 Ryan Moore, #34 Scott Piercy, #37 Francesco Molinari, #39 Kevin Na and #44 William McGirt.

Last year there were only 11 top-50 players so there are 4 less this year.

The field includes 3 of the Top 25 on last year’s final FedEx point standings for 2016.  Those players include #7 Ryan Moore, #14 Jimmy Walker and #24 William McGirt

The field includes 5 players in the top 25 on last year’s PGA Tour money list, #10 Jimmy Walker, #16 Ryan Moore, #17 William McGirt, #19 Kevin Na and #23 Brooks Koepka.

The field includes 9 past champions: Smylie Kaufman (2016), Ben Martin (2015), Webb Simpson (2014), Ryan Moore (2012), Kevin Na (2011), Jonathan Byrd (2010), Martin Laird (2009), Stuart Appleby (2003) and Davis Love III (1993).

A perfect way for fantasy golfers to check on the past performance of all the players in the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open field is our performance chart listed by average finish. One last way to check who is the best is through a special formula worked out in Golfstats that gives us the best average performances atShriners Hospitals for Children Open in the last five years or check out our sortable 8-year glance at the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open.

A good cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmakers in England.

Time to look at our who’s hot and who isn’t:

Who’s Hot in the field for the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open

Player WGC-HSBC Champions Sanderson Farms CIMB Classic Safeway Open Nationwide Children’s Hospital Tour Champ. Boise Open BMW Champ. DAP Champ. Deutsche Bank Portland Open Barclays Classic
Cody Gribble
(218.67 pts)
DNP Win
(132)
DNP T8
(50)
T5
(46.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Ryan Moore
(212.5 pts)
T23
(27)
DNP T17
(33)
DNP DNP T2
(100)
DNP T64
(0)
DNP T8
(25)
DNP T7
(27.5)
Chris Kirk
(173.5 pts)
DNP T2
(100)
DNP T8
(50)
DNP DNP DNP T10
(20)
DNP T33
(8.5)
DNP CUT
(-5)
Brendan Steele
(170 pts)
DNP DNP T26
(24)
Win
(132)
DNP DNP DNP T64
(0)
DNP 72
(0)
DNP T22
(14)
Grayson Murray
(162.33 pts)
DNP T8
(50)
DNP CUT
(-10)
Win
(88)
DNP 3
(30)
DNP WD
(-1.67)
DNP T32
(6)
DNP
Scott Piercy
(157 pts)
T63
(0)
DNP T10
(40)
T3
(90)
DNP DNP DNP T24
(13)
DNP T53
(0)
DNP T22
(14)
Derek Fathauer
(129.5 pts)
DNP DNP T3
(90)
T15
(35)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-5)
DNP T31
(9.5)
Kevin Na
(126.5 pts)
T54
(0)
DNP T29
(21)
7
(55)
DNP 29
(21)
DNP T20
(15)
DNP T11
(19.5)
DNP CUT
(-5)
Cameron Smith
(124.67 pts)
DNP T11
(39)
DNP T35
(15)
2
(66.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T28
(7.33)
DNP DNP DNP
Luke List
(119 pts)
DNP T2
(100)
DNP T26
(24)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-5)
Xander Schauffele
(115 pts)
DNP T5
(70)
DNP T60
(0)
T9
(30)
DNP T18
(10.67)
DNP T50
(0.33)
DNP T38
(4)
DNP
Greg Owen
(109.67 pts)
DNP T2
(100)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T12
(12.67)
DNP T39
(3.67)
DNP DNP DNP
Johnson Wagner
(104 pts)
DNP DNP DNP T3
(90)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T63
(0)
DNP T22
(14)
Ryan Blaum
(101 pts)
DNP T11
(39)
DNP T26
(24)
T18
(21.33)
DNP T5
(23.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Jason Kokrak
(93 pts)
T16
(34)
DNP DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP T17
(16.5)
DNP T8
(25)
DNP T7
(27.5)
Andres Gonzales
(92.33 pts)
DNP T42
(8)
DNP T35
(15)
T12
(25.33)
DNP T18
(10.67)
DNP T2
(33.33)
DNP DNP DNP
Keegan Bradley
(88 pts)
DNP DNP 6
(60)
T22
(28)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T53
(0)
Mackenzie Hughes
(85.67 pts)
DNP T26
(24)
DNP T13
(37)
64
(0)
DNP T5
(23.33)
DNP T46
(1.33)
DNP T55
(0)
DNP
Michael Kim
(85 pts)
DNP DNP DNP T3
(90)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-5)
Sean O’Hair
(83 pts)
T63
(0)
DNP DNP DNP DNP T17
(33)
DNP T52
(0)
DNP T53
(0)
DNP T2
(50)
Jimmy Walker
(80.5 pts)
T77
(0)
DNP DNP DNP DNP 28
(22)
DNP T13
(18.5)
DNP 3
(45)
DNP CUT
(-5)
Patton Kizzire
(80 pts)
DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP 2
(100)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-5)
DNP CUT
(-5)
James Hahn
(78 pts)
DNP DNP 9
(45)
CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP T24
(13)
DNP T5
(35)
DNP CUT
(-5)
Kevin Tway
(74.67 pts)
DNP T35
(15)
DNP T62
(0)
T3
(60)
DNP T31
(6.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Steven Alker
(74 pts)
DNP T35
(15)
DNP T26
(24)
T18
(21.33)
DNP 8
(16.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T50
(0.33)
DNP
Tony Finau
(73 pts)
DNP DNP T33
(17)
T26
(24)
DNP DNP DNP T66
(0)
DNP T24
(13)
DNP 12
(19)
Hiroshi Iwata
(72.67 pts)
DNP T5
(70)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T12
(12.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP DNP
Nicholas Lindheim
(71 pts)
DNP T23
(27)
DNP 70
(0)
T24
(17.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T2
(33.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Ryan Brehm
(69.67 pts)
DNP T18
(32)
DNP 69
(0)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T51
(0)
DNP T50
(0.33)
DNP Win
(44)
DNP
Troy Merritt
(69 pts)
DNP T11
(39)
DNP T15
(35)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-5)

How Player Rankings are Computed

Who’s Not Hot in the field for the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open

Player WGC-HSBC Champions Sanderson Farms CIMB Classic Safeway Open Nationwide Children’s Hospital Tour Champ. Boise Open BMW Champ. DAP Champ. Deutsche Bank Portland Open Barclays Classic
Boo Weekley
(-25 pts)
DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-5)
Bryce Molder
(-25 pts)
DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T53
(0)
DNP CUT
(-5)
Spencer Levin
(-24 pts)
DNP CUT
(-10)
50
(1)
CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP T57
(0)
DNP CUT
(-5)
Ollie Schniederjans
(-20 pts)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T61
(0)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP 74
(0)
DNP
Aaron Wise
(-20 pts)
DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Geoff Ogilvy
(-20 pts)
DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Colt Knost
(-20 pts)
DNP DNP T72
(0)
CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-5)
DNP CUT
(-5)
Daniel Summerhays
(-20 pts)
DNP DNP 65
(0)
CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP 68
(0)
DNP CUT
(-5)
DNP CUT
(-5)
Matt Jones
(-18.33 pts)
DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T53
(0)
DNP WD
(-1.67)
DNP DNP DNP
Jason Bohn
(-15 pts)
DNP T70
(0)
DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-5)
DNP 77
(0)

How Player Rankings are Computed

Whose hot or going to be hot, our player watch:

Last week at the Sanderson Farms we saw a new star emerge as Cody Gribble won.  It was easy to see it coming, after finishing T-5th at the Nationwide Children’s Hospital Championship, which was the last Web.Com Tour event it helped him get his PGA Tour card for 2017.  He took advantage of his good luck with a T-8th finish at Safeway and then looked awesome in Mississippi with a second round 63 followed by a final round 65.  It’s still early in the year but in his first two events Gribble seems to be putting very well, on tour he is 4th in Strokes Gain Putting.

For this week here are some players to watch.  One is 22-year-old California native and San Diego State alum Xander Schauffele.  He finished 26th on the Web.Com Tour money list and barely missed getting his card, but with a fine T-9th at the Nationwide Children’s Hospital Championship he earned his PGA Tour card.  His first start at Safeway got him a T-60th finish, but he had problems in the final round shooting 77.  He was very consistent in Mississippi finishing T-5th, this time he was flawless in a final round 66.  Schauffele has never played in the Shriners but should be ok since he does make his fair share of birdies.  Last year he ranked 18th on the Web.Com tour in birdies and 31st in eagles, so he should fit in this week.  A couple of others that could do well in Las Vegas is Grayson Murray who was T-8th in Mississippi and led the Web.Com Tour’s par breaker list last year.  Another good choice could be Ryan Blaum who was T-26th at the Safeway and T-11th at Mississippi, he led last year’s Web.Com Tour most birdies made list.

Another player to watch is former U.S. Open champion Lucas Glover. He has always been a king from tee to green, but has always lacked skill once on the greens.  He has worked hard on it and last week in his T-5th finish putted ok after leading the field in greens hit.  Again Vegas is a city were “Lady Luck” can rear up at any time with any players so maybe Glover will improve his record in Vegas, were he has missed the cut in his last three starts.

Also Troy Merritt has never played well in Vegas, but he was good last week in Mississippi finishing T-11th and in the Safeway he was T-15th.  In both events he has shot 70 or lower seven of his eight rounds so you just never know.

The Buzz:

The oldest running fall event, Shriners Hospital for Children has all of the glamour of Las Vegas on a course that a lot of players like to play on.  For some this will be a fun week with a little bit of golf mixed in with the fast-pace action of Las Vegas.

Founded in 1983 as the Panasonic Las Vegas Pro-Celebrity Classic, the event has undergone six name changes in the events history. Frys.Com became the Title Sponsor for the event in 2006, replacing its former title, the Michelin Championship at Las Vegas.  2007 was the final year of Fry’s involvement and in 2008 Justin Timberlake took on the duties of becoming the tournament presenter with Shriners Hospitals for Children sponsoring the event.  Timberlake is no longer associated with the tournament.

At the tournament’s inception, the managers of the tournament prided themselves on running a tournament that stood out amongst the slew of annual PGA events. It was the first event to offer a total purse of $1 million; at the trophy presentation, the winner used to receive his trophy with two showgirls by his side. Though these ideas help separate the event from others, the most drastic deviation from the norm is the tournament’s format, which in a way “borrowed” the format at the Bob Hope Open.

In its inception, the tournament was played over five rounds at between three and four courses. However, in 2003, when the original tournament founders abdicated control to another volunteer organization, the event was immediately switched to the more conventional four round format. Over the years, courses have been dropped and for the 8th straight year it’s only played on the TPC Summerlin.

One thing about this event, it’s always nice winning an event but for some of it’s past champions they never got back to the winners circle again on the PGA Tour.  Looked at the 16 past winners since 2000, only seven Ryan Moore (2012), Jonathan Byrd (2010), Martin Laird (2009), George McNeill (2007), Troy Matteson (2006), Stuart Appleby (2003) and Bob Estes (2001) won again.  The others, Smylie Kaufman (2016) Ben Martin (2015), Webb Simpson (2014), Kevin Na (2011), Marc Turnesa (2008), Wes Short Jr. (2005), Andre Stolz (2004), Phil Tataurangi (2002) and Billy Andrade (2000) never made it back to the winners circle and some of them don’t even play anymore on the PGA Tour.

Advantages of the Wrap-around schedule:

What a great world the PGA Tour is.  Just look at some of the players that had high finishes at the Safeway, CIMB and Sanderson Farms.  Winners Brendan Steele, Justin Thomas and Cody Gribble can now have a comfortable 2017, which is still two months away.  With all of there victories we know that there Christmas will be special.  The same for players like Patton Kizzire, he now doesn’t have to worry about the year because he has gotten it off in the proper manner with his runner-up finish at the Safeway.  Even guys like Xander Schauffele, who was playing in just his fourth PGA Tour event, his T-5th has put $153,300 in his pocket.  Gosh, how far things have gotten, in 1964 Jack Nicklaus won the money race with $113,284 less than what Schauffele made.  Oh it took Ben Hogan 16 years on the PGA Tour before he won his first $100,000.  Going a step further, Gene Sarazen collected money on the PGA Tour between 1920 and 1976 and this may seem hard to believe but in his 56 years of playing he won 38 times, seven of them majors and only won $77,787.  So it’s nice to see all these guys doing so well with the first day of 2016 still 79 days away.

One last thing, this week is the 20th anniversary of Tiger Woods first win on the PGA Tour.  In 1996 he won the Shriners by beating Davis Love III in a playoff.  for the victory he won $297,000 just about half of what Schauffele won for finishing 5th at the Sanderson Farms last week.

Have to talk about Draft Kings:

For the last year and a half we have all loved Draft Kings.  Until about two months ago a week didn’t go by without me filling out a card in Draft Kings games.  Gosh I loved in May when Draft Kings started games with the European Tour.  But over the course of the last six weeks, I have gotten very frustrated with them.  Maybe it’s because of the lack of interest of players to participate.  Ratings for golf are down and frankly even our page views on Golfstats are down.  Golf isn’t the only sport that is affected, even NFL football ratings are 10% down.  Many feel this is because of the presidential race going on, people are more interested in that than sports.  But I have to say that Draft Kings has gotten to be very tough to win at of late.  No it’s not because I am not picking the right players, it’s the games are the same and getting boring.  I really wish that Draft Kings would have some new type of games, maybe matchups, maybe final round games.  Anything that is different than what we are having now.  I also am not loving the payout scheme, the purses are growing smaller and the payouts use to be around 23%, they are going down in some games to 12 and 13%.  What I don’t understand about Draft Kings, they should go out of their way to pay off more folks, up to 50%.  They could do that with smaller prizes which honestly wouldn’t affect their take.  If you win you want to play the game the next time.  You start losing and you tend to not want to play, specially when the payouts start getting slimmer and slimmer and it gets harder to win money and stay ahead.  I know that the number of people that sign up for a game dictates the payouts, maybe they should think of having less games.  The purpose of this is to see if anyone else feels this way?  If so write me at Golfersal@aol.com.

I really think this lack of interest is an anomaly brought on by the elections.  It could also be over saturation and way too much golf each week of the year.  After Thanksgiving golf will have a five week rest but I really feel that golf should have a rest right around mid September because there is too much golf.  But for me I am taking some time off from Draft Kings until the games have better payouts or at least to the Hyundai Tournament of Champions.  I love the challenge of Draft Kings and with the success of Draft Kings so goes the success of GolfStats.Com but they have to make it worthwhile for me to play their games.  Right now it’s just not right.

 

Course information:

  • TPC Summerlin was designed by Bobby Weed and Fuzzy Zoeller in 1992. The Par 71 course measures 7,255 yards. It has a course rating of 74.3 and a slope rating of 139. The tees, fairways, and rough all comprise of 419 Bermuda Grass, cut at 3/8″, 3/8″, and 2″ respectively. The greens consist of a 1/8″ cut of A-1/A-4 Creeping Bent Grass. This short cut mixed with the always speedy Bent Grass explains the rather Stimpmeter reading of 11 feet. As for hazards, the course features 99 sand bunkers (with 51 around the greens) and water comes into play on four holes.
  • The signature hole at TPC Summerlin is the short 341-yard par four 15th hole. The large elevated green is reachable from the tee; however, numerous bunkers guard the green, making the play risky, but possibly very rewarding. As for accolades, Golf Digest rated this as the fourth “Best in State” course for 1995-96, and the fifth best for 1997-98. Also, GolfWeek awarded it 98th in the category of “America’s 100 Best Modern Courses” for 1997.
  • Last year was the eight time that Summerlin was the only course used and they made a big change in 2009 changing par to 71 by making the third hole a long par 4 at 473 yards.  In addition to this change, trees were added along the right side of the fairways on Nos. 9 and 16, both par 5s. The rough also was grown longer than in years past and for holes 7, 9, 11, 12, 13 and 16 the fairways are going to be between 3 and 5 yards narrower than in 2008.  All of these changed to try and make the course play a bit tougher.  In 2008 Summerlin played to an average of 69.070, while in 2009 with par reduced it played just about the same, 69.152. In 2010 it played to a 68.956 average, while in 2011 it was 68.883, 2012 was 69.713 and the 40th toughest course at of 49. In 2014 the course played to a 69.546 average and was the 43rd hardest course out of 48.  In 2015 the course played to a 69.659 average and was the 42nd hardest course out of the 52 played.  Last year the course played to a 70.080 and was the 34th hardest course out of 50.
  • Lot’s of birdies are made on this course, last year 1,701 were made along with 50 eagles.  The finish is demanding with the par 3 17th hole played the third hardest hole at 3.128 while the 18th hole was the 11th hardest at 3.977.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open:

Key stat for the winner:

Making lots of birdies is important.  The average for the last 12 winners since the course reverted to a 72 hole affair is is 22 under and the winners average making 25 birdies per round.  So the secret is to make a lot of birdies.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

  • With fairways that are wide open, fairways with lots of roll, dominating the par 5s has been a key.  It’s also interesting to note that in the last 12 years the winners have averaged 12 under par on the par 4s.  Last year Smylie Kaufman was 6 under on the par 4s while Ben Martin was 9 under in 2015 and in 2014 Webb Simpson was 12 under the same as Ryan Moore was in 2012. Jonathan Byrd was the best at 14 under in 2010 while the least lowest was 6 under by George McNeill in 2007.
  • Being an accurate driver, a long driver or a person that hits a lot of greens doesn’t give you a big advantage.  Scrambling is very important it ranked 10th on the PGA Tour last year.  If there ever was a tournament that favors the newcomer, this is it.
  • Most of the time the weather is wonderful, but every now and then high winds bring big challenges to the players, those that can handle these conditions have the advantage.  But for this year look for perfect conditions with very little wind so scoring will be low.
  • You have to realize were your at, in Las Vegas “lady luck” is very important in winning, a lot of players that you would never think would win have found the “luck factor” in victory.

Who to watch for at the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open

Best Bets:

Ryo Ishikawa

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
T50 T28 T2

His play has been great over his last five starts. It started at the start of September when he won an event in Japan, then finished T-2nd and 3rd in his next two starts. He then finished T-7th at the Japan Open followed by a T-10th at the CIMB Classic. So he is a very quiet and good pick to win, remember he almost won this event in 2014.

Ryan Moore

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
T43 CUT T9 Win CUT T7 T24 T54 T85 T16

Ended his year almost winning the Tour Championship, he had two solid finishes in Asia and comes to this event which he won back in 2012.

Brooks Koepka

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
CUT T4 CUT

Played well over the summer, he was 5th on the PGA Tour in Par Breakers in 2016 so he knows how to make lot’s of birdies and eagles.

Best of the rest:

Jimmy Walker

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
T50 T4 T12 T10 CUT CUT CUT

A very good pick because he makes lot’s of birdies, last year was 17th on the PGA Tour in birdie average.

Kevin Na

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
T2 WD CUT T22 Win T45 T15 T19 T24 WD

Has won this event and was runner-up last year.

Patton Kizzire

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
T2

May of missed the cut in Mississippi last week but was 2nd at Safeway and at the Shriners last year.

Jason Bohn

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
T2 T18 T2 T8 T49 T14 T23

Been runner-up in two of his last three Shriners starts. Over his last 16 rounds at this event has made 91 birdies.

Solid contenders

Chris Kirk

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
T36 T36 CUT

Has played very well of late including runner-up last week in Mississippi.

Webb Simpson

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
T56 T4 Win T4 CUT

Has played well in this event, finishing in the top-four three times in his last four starts including a win in 2014.

Keegan Bradley

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
CUT

Watch him he is getting close to playing well again.

Grayson Murray

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
First time playing in this event

Playing in this event for the first time, led the Web.Com Tour’s par breakers list last year.

Cody Gribble

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
First time playing in this event

Played well last week and could do very well this week.

Long shots that could come through:

Francesco Molinari

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
First time playing in this event

Finished T-6th in China and six weeks ago won in Italy. Playing this event for the first time.

Jon Rahm

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
First time playing in this event

Another rookie in this event but one that could do very well because of his aggressive style of play.

Ryan Blaum

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
First time playing in this event

Playing in this event for the first time, made the most birdies on the Web.Com Tour last year.

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