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BlogTurkish Open Preview and Picks

Turkish Airlines Open

November 3rd – 6th, 2016

Regnum Carya Golf & Spa

Antalya, Turkey

Par: 71 / Yardage: 7,127

Purse: $7.63 million

with $1,120,160 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Victor Dubuisson

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This week’s field includes:

The field includes 16 of the top 100 and 6 of the top 50 in the latest Official World Rankings, with the highest rank player in the field being #10 Danny Willett. Here are the rest of the top-50 players: #35 Tyrrell Hatton, #42 Byeong Hun An, #45 Lee Westwood, #46 Andy Sullivan and #50 Soren Kjeldsen

Last year the field had 10 top-50 players off the world rankings.

The field includes 73 of the Top 100 on this year’s Race to Dubai money list. 

There are also 78 players from 22 different countries

There are 8 Ryder Cup players including 3, Danny Willett, Lee Westwood and Andy Sullivan off of this year’s Ryder Cup team

The field includes one past champions: Victor Dubuisson (2015 & ’13), .

A perfect way for fantasy golfers to check on the past performance of all the players in the Turkish Airlines Open field is our performance chart listed by average finish. One last way to check who is the best is through a special formula worked out in Golfstats that gives us the best average performances at the Turkish Airlines Open  in the last five years or check out our sortable 8-year glance at the Turkish Airlines Open.

A good cheat sheet is this list of odds from the top bookmakers in England.

Time to look at our who’s hot and who isn’t:

Who’s Hot in the field for the Turkish Airlines Open

Player HSBC Champions Portugal Masters British Masters Dunhill Links Tour Champ. Porsche European Italian Open BMW Champ. European Masters Deutsche Bank KLM Open Barclays Classic
Bernd Wiesberger
(234.67 pts)
T35
(15)
DNP 2
(100)
T7
(36.67)
DNP 5
(46.67)
DNP DNP T41
(3)
DNP 2
(33.33)
DNP
Richard Bland
(216 pts)
T30
(20)
DNP T4
(80)
T18
(21.33)
DNP T7
(36.67)
T5
(23.33)
DNP T5
(23.33)
DNP T16
(11.33)
DNP
Alexander Levy
(202.33 pts)
T58
(0)
DNP T4
(80)
T63
(0)
DNP Win
(88)
T7
(18.33)
DNP T18
(10.67)
DNP T34
(5.33)
DNP
Tommy Fleetwood
(173 pts)
DNP T37
(13)
T4
(80)
T15
(23.33)
DNP T13
(24.67)
T7
(18.33)
DNP T49
(0.33)
DNP T10
(13.33)
DNP
Tyrrell Hatton
(158.33 pts)
T23
(27)
DNP T9
(45)
Win
(88)
DNP DNP T45
(1.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP DNP
David Horsey
(142.67 pts)
DNP T22
(28)
T12
(38)
T11
(26)
DNP T49
(0.67)
T5
(23.33)
DNP DNP DNP T4
(26.67)
DNP
Lee Westwood
(127.67 pts)
29
(21)
DNP 3
(90)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP 4
(26.67)
DNP DNP DNP
Joakim Lagergren
(125 pts)
DNP T17
(33)
T18
(32)
4
(53.33)
DNP T63
(0)
T53
(0)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T20
(10)
DNP
Padraig Harrington
(122 pts)
DNP Win
(132)
DNP T63
(0)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Richard Sterne
(116 pts)
T60
(0)
DNP T9
(45)
T2
(66.67)
DNP T39
(7.33)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T49
(0.33)
DNP DNP DNP
Andy Sullivan
(115.67 pts)
DNP 2
(100)
T41
(9)
DNP DNP DNP T20
(10)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP DNP
Marc Warren
(112.67 pts)
DNP T12
(38)
T22
(28)
5
(46.67)
DNP DQ
(-3.33)
T20
(10)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Mikko Korhonen
(109.67 pts)
DNP T3
(90)
T60
(0)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T28
(14.67)
T45
(1.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T10
(13.33)
DNP
Robert Rock
(100.67 pts)
DNP T5
(70)
T49
(1)
T31
(12.67)
DNP DNP T20
(10)
DNP T29
(7)
DNP DNP DNP
Renato Paratore
(99.67 pts)
DNP T73
(0)
T22
(28)
T7
(36.67)
DNP T20
(20)
71
(0)
DNP T7
(18.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
David Lipsky
(92 pts)
DNP T5
(70)
T54
(0)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T24
(17.33)
T16
(11.33)
DNP T58
(0)
DNP DNP DNP
Chris Paisley
(90.67 pts)
DNP T5
(70)
T60
(0)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T49
(0.67)
T3
(30)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP DNP
Matthew Southgate
(88.33 pts)
DNP T17
(33)
T18
(32)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T7
(36.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T51
(0)
DNP
Alejandro Canizares
(77 pts)
DNP T31
(19)
T45
(5)
T41
(6)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
T7
(18.33)
DNP T24
(8.67)
DNP T4
(26.67)
DNP
Oliver Fisher
(74.67 pts)
DNP T10
(40)
71
(0)
T63
(0)
DNP T28
(14.67)
T53
(0)
DNP T12
(12.67)
DNP T28
(7.33)
DNP
Paul Lawrie
(71.67 pts)
DNP T5
(70)
CUT
(-10)
DNP DNP T28
(14.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T49
(0.33)
DNP DNP DNP
Mikko Ilonen
(68.67 pts)
DNP DNP T12
(38)
T18
(21.33)
DNP DNP T53
(0)
DNP T12
(12.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Thongchai Jaidee
(68.33 pts)
T30
(20)
DNP T22
(28)
DNP DNP T20
(20)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T29
(7)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Soren Kjeldsen
(67 pts)
T40
(10)
DNP T28
(22)
T7
(36.67)
DNP DNP WD
(-1.67)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Mike Lorenzo-vera
(66.67 pts)
DNP DNP T54
(0)
T31
(12.67)
DNP T13
(24.67)
T72
(0)
DNP T12
(12.67)
DNP T8
(16.67)
DNP
Robert Karlsson
(62.67 pts)
DNP T44
(6)
CUT
(-10)
T53
(0)
DNP T3
(60)
T30
(6.67)
DNP DNP DNP T69
(0)
DNP
Nicolas Colsaerts
(60.67 pts)
DNP T50
(1)
T49
(1)
T31
(12.67)
DNP T13
(24.67)
T38
(4)
DNP T24
(8.67)
DNP T24
(8.67)
DNP
Nacho Elvira
(60 pts)
DNP 9
(45)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
T3
(30)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T45
(1.67)
DNP
Andrew Johnston
(55 pts)
T47
(3)
DNP T28
(22)
T63
(0)
DNP DNP DNP DNP 3
(30)
DNP DNP DNP
Scott Hend
(50 pts)
T54
(0)
DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP 2
(33.33)
DNP T4
(26.67)
DNP
Fabrizio Zanotti
(49.33 pts)
DNP DNP T60
(0)
T31
(12.67)
DNP T20
(20)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T24
(8.67)
DNP T16
(11.33)
DNP
Jorge Campillo
(48.33 pts)
DNP T44
(6)
T18
(32)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
T7
(18.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T24
(8.67)
DNP
Lucas Bjerregaard
(46.33 pts)
DNP T12
(38)
CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T39
(7.33)
T20
(10)
DNP T49
(0.33)
DNP T28
(7.33)
DNP
Pablo Larrazabal
(42 pts)
DNP CUT
(-10)
T33
(17)
T25
(16.67)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T7
(18.33)
DNP T20
(10)
DNP
Justin Walters
(41.67 pts)
DNP T17
(33)
T33
(17)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T57
(0)
T45
(1.67)
DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Magnus A Carlsson
(39.67 pts)
DNP CUT
(-10)
T22
(28)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP T13
(24.67)
T68
(0)
DNP T29
(7)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Danny Willett
(39.33 pts)
75
(0)
DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP 2
(33.33)
DNP T12
(12.67)
DNP DNP DNP
Callum Shinkwin
(39 pts)
DNP T17
(33)
T58
(0)
T38
(8)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T41
(3)
DNP WD
(-1.67)
DNP
Lasse Jensen
(38.33 pts)
DNP T31
(19)
DNP T11
(26)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
T53
(0)
DNP DNP DNP T62
(0)
DNP
Kiradech Aphibarnrat
(38 pts)
DNP DNP T12
(38)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP

How Player Rankings are Computed

Who’s Not Hot in the field for the Turkish Airlines Open

Player HSBC Champions Portugal Masters British Masters Dunhill Links Tour Champ. Porsche European Italian Open BMW Champ. European Masters Deutsche Bank KLM Open Barclays Classic
Haydn Porteous
(-33.33 pts)
DNP CUT
(-10)
T65
(0)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Matteo Manassero
(-27.33 pts)
DNP CUT
(-10)
T49
(1)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T45
(1.67)
DNP
Johan Carlsson
(-26.67 pts)
DNP T61
(0)
CUT
(-10)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T65
(0)
DNP T62
(0)
DNP
Nathan Holman
(-18.33 pts)
T77
(0)
DNP WD
(-5)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T68
(0)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Thorbjorn Olesen
(-18.33 pts)
DNP T50
(1)
CUT
(-10)
T50
(0.67)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
S.S.P. Chawrasia
(-16.67 pts)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP
Maximilian Kieffer
(-14.67 pts)
DNP T61
(0)
T54
(0)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP T34
(5.33)
DNP
Adrian Otaegui
(-13.33 pts)
DNP CUT
(-10)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
T20
(10)
DNP T58
(0)
DNP T59
(0)
DNP
Jaco Van Zyl
(-7.67 pts)
DNP DNP WD
(-5)
DNP DNP T49
(0.67)
CUT
(-3.33)
DNP DNP DNP DNP DNP
Felipe Aguilar
(-7.33 pts)
DNP T44
(6)
T67
(0)
CUT
(-6.67)
DNP CUT
(-6.67)
T30
(6.67)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP CUT
(-3.33)
DNP

How Player Rankings are Computed

The Buzz:

Frankly the buzz is the players that aren’t in the field, Henrik Stenson, Rory McIlroy, Alex Noren, Louis Oosthuizen, Chris Wood and Branden Grace to name six of the top-ten off the Race to Dubai list.  So this may be the start of the Final Series, which has been reduced this year from four to three events.  Of course there is reason for those players not showing up, most of them cited the recent conflicts and bombings in Turkey so you can’t really blame them.

Rumor had it that the European Tour was on the verge of cancelling the event last week after an explosion in a park car just down the street from the course was the reason for many of the withdrawals.  Even American Patrick Reed, who is trying to work his way up the Race to Dubai money list also was a last minute withdrawal following advise given to him from the US State Department.

But in the state of things like this it just creates opportunity for others as the list of players off the Race to Dubai list went down to 102nd instead of just the top-70.  So with only three top-ten players in the field Danny Willett, Tyrell Hatton and Lee Westwood if they were to win this week it would give them a very big lead going to South Africa for the second leg of the playoffs.

The shame of all this is the event has one of the bigger purses on the European Tour and in reality it doesn’t give much credibility to the Race to Dubai.

So for fantasy players this presents some opportunities to find some players off the beaten path.  Adding to the mystery is the fact that they are playing on a new course so nobody has any kind of advantage, poor Victor Dubuisson who won twice at nearby Maxx Royal resort is just wishing they didn’t change the course.

Now the Carya Golf Club held a European Tour Challenge Tour event on it in 2010 and we can see one player who are in the field this week did well in that event six and a half years ago.  Bernd Wiesberger finished T-8th and it could of been better if he didn’t finish with a 73.

The course is close to the Mediterranean and with it has a splash of links golf with naturally cultivated heather and rolling fairways on sand dunes.  According to the club the course winds between natural pine and eucalyptus trees, and across undulating sand ridges, with white sand bunkers keeping players on their toes, and testing their ability to play a smarter game of golf. The mixture of terrains and hazards that players face as they complete their round will help to make for some truly unforgettable golfing experiences.

What I find interesting of the course it’s the first lighted golf course in Europe and many play the course at night.  The course is long and water comes in play on seven of the holes and in talking with those that have played the course they say that long hitters will have the advantage.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Turkish Airlines Open:

Key stat for the winner:

Having to learn a new course and adapting to it.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

Best to look at the field and see how they are playing, look for those that have done well the last couple of weeks.  Players like Padraig Harrington and Tyrrell Hatton have won in the last four weeks.  Also playing well is Bernd Wiesberger, Tommy Fleetwood and Andy Sullivan

Who to watch for at the Turkish Airlines Open

Best Bets:

Lee Westwood

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
T11 T8 T29

Hard to find a favorite this week with so many folks staying at home. Lee seems as good as any thanks in part to his good finish in the British Masters a couple of weeks ago.

Tyrrell Hatton

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
T26 T19

Won three weeks ago and the kind of player who can overpower a course.

Alexander Levy

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
T18 T11

Another good pick based on his record over the last month.

Best of the rest:

Bernd Wiesberger

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
T50 T52 T7

Always a good pick to pick up a top-ten, but he just has problems with the lead. He showed that in 2010, he played this course in a Challenge Tour event and finished T-8th with a poor final round 73.

Andy Sullivan

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
T60 T4

He is a step away from stardom and he can climb up that step with a win this week.

David Lipsky

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
T20 T15

Another of those playing well.

Thomas Aiken

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
T41 T64 T15

Leads the European Tour in greens hit, has had a solid year.

Danny Willett

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
T11 T4 T63

Guess we have to add him to the list but he hasn’t played well since the Masters.

Solid contenders

Kiradech Aphibarnrat

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
3 T54

Played great in this event last year, has had a great year.

Richard Bland

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
T16 T39

Another of those playing well in the last month.

Tommy Fleetwood

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
T60 T32 T36

Another of those mystery men that could pump it into overdrive and make a run.

Byeong Hun An

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
4

Another of those that could get it rolling, played well in this even last year.

Long shots that could come through:

Mike Lorenzo-Vera

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
76

Played in this event in 2010 finishing T-49th. Frenchman has the game to surprise us.

Fabrizio Zanotti

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
T50 T19

Good from tee to green, also good in adapting to new challenges.

Mikko Ilonen

2016 ’15 ’14 ’13 ’12 ’11 ’10 ’09 ’08 ’07 ’06 ’05 ’04
65 T64

It’s these kind of events he seems to shine in.

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