BlogMayakoba Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

Can you believe it, we have had five events in 2016 and only one first time winner, Cody Gribble at the Sanderson Farms.  Last year at this time there was five first time PGA Tour winners.  Just goes to show that anything can happen on the PGA Tour.

So which players are we watching after Shriners?  Have to wonder how many folks would of picked Rod Pampling last week?  It was his third win on the PGA Tour and first since the 2006 Arnold Palmer Invitational, ten years and 220 starts ago.  Pampling hasn’t played well since he finished 5th in the 2014 Barracuda Championship and in that time span only had one top-25, a T-22nd at the 2015 AT&T Byron Nelson.  At the age of 47 you would of thought his next win would of come on the Champions Tour not the PGA Tour but he did win.  We talked a lot in our preview on how this event in Las Vegas has a lot of “lady luck” winners and I guess you have to call Pampling a “lady luck” champion.  He opened up with a 60, it was only the sixth time in PGA Tour history since 1970 that a 60 was shot. (59 was shot once, Paul Goydos, 2010 John Deere)  Oh of the six that shot 60 two of them won (Phil Mickelson 2013 Phoenix & Steve Stricker, 2010 John Deere) so it is special to open an event with a 60.

Pampling kept it going with a 68-71, but came back with a final round 65.  In Pampling’s career of 342 PGA Tour starts he has only broken 65 once in the final round, a 64 in the 2004 True South Classic were he finished T14th.  It was his tenth 65 in the final round but still it’s hard to fathom what Pampling did to create his victory last week.  He was 38th in driving distance, T-15th in Fairways hit, T-11th in greens hit and 39th in strokes gained putting.  These aren’t the type of stats that you win tournaments with, but at the end of the day he did it with 24 birdies.  He had 25 once at the 2009 Turning Stone Resort Classic, but in his six previous starts in the Shriners his best was 19 birdies in 2005 and 2011.  Pampling also didn’t show signs of playing well in Vegas, in six previous starts his best finish was T-16th, he missed three of his six cuts.  So just like his previous two wins in the 2006 Arnold Palmer and the 2004 International there was not advance warning or anything to indicate a win so this goes into the books as one of those “lady Luck” victories.  Oh, before we call it a day on Pampling we should mention that his caddie Brendon Woolley was on the bag when lady luck shined on Phil Tataurangi when he won in Vegas in 2002.  Oh for those in the fantasy golf world I wouldn’t place Pampling very high on your list of guys to chose in future events other than maybe the Barracuda Championship.

So which players showed us something at the Shriners?

• Brooks Koepka played well finishing 2nd, it was his first top-ten since his T-9th at the Travelers.  He is a player that we tend to watch at Desert events and those that require a lot of birdies, so look for him to play well when the tour starts up in January.  Koepka is off to play in the Dunlop Phoenix in Japan and will play in Tiger’s Hero Challenge.
• Lucas Glover is again a player to watch if he can putt well.  He has always been strong from tee to green, but he is one of the worst putters on the PGA Tour.  Get him in an event like the Shriners were putting isn’t a major key, he does well.  Glover was the all-around rank leader for the week and his high finish is thanks to finishing 10th in strokes gained putting.  This is Glover’s second straight top-ten (T-5th at Sanderson Farms) and even though he is taking the week off, will be back next week at the RSM Classic an event he finished T-9th at last year.
• Francesco Molinari has been on a bit of a run, starting with his Italian Open win in September. Since then finished T-6th at the WGC-HSBC and now T-4th at the Shriners and he started the week tired after the flight back from China shooting 70 in the first round but shooting his low PGA Tour round with a 61 in the final round.  Unfortunately for Molinari he won’t be playing for a bit taking some time off so we will have to wait and see if he can keep it going when he plays again.
• Geoff Ogilvy is one of those players that we shake our head and wonder about.  He won the 2006 U.S. Open and several other times but then slacked off around 2012.  If you ask me I think a lot of it has to do with his great family life, he just loves spending more time with his family than on the course practicing.  He made a bit of a comeback in 2014 when he won the Barracuda, but over the last two years he has only finished in the top-10 three times the last being a T0-9th at the Canadian Open.  Since then he had missed three of six cuts so his T-4th was not expected.  For Geoff it’s off to Australia and you never know he may have a good finish down under.
• Harris English could be a player to watch at the OHL Classic.  He had a strong tee to green game and he made a lot of birdies, something that should put him in good shape in Mexico this week.  Now English won the OHL Classic in 2014 so I would say that he has to go high up on anyone’s list this week.  He is also playing at the RSM Classic, another event he could do well at.
• Pat Perez had labrum surgery on his shoulder back in March and wasn’t expected to be back till the first of the year.  But thanks to a strong rehab program Perez was able to tee it up at the CIMB Classic.  He finished T-33rd in Malaysia and with a great week of four rounds in the 60s finished T-7th.  He is playing in Mexico this week and he is a player to watch as he enjoys some good golf when least expected.
• Keegan Bradley is another of the players high on my list in Mexico this week, he played great at the Shriners finishing T-7th.  It’s his second straight top-ten, he finished 6th at the CIMB Classic.  El Camaleon is perfect for his game in which he is doing well from tee-to-green.  But just like with Lucas Glover putting is Bradley’s weak link and if he can continue his good putting from Las Vegas were he finished T-8th on putts inside ten feet he can do well.
• Last but not least we have Aaron Wise, who is the 2016 Australian Master of Amateur champion, then captured the individual NCAA Championship while playing for Oregon.  He turned pro and played on the Canadian Mackenzie Tour and won the Syncrude Oil Championship at the end of July.  In seven events on the Mackenzie Tour he had five top-ten finishes.  In only his second PGA Tour start he was T-16th at the John Deere Classic.  He missed the cut at Safeway and Sanderson Farms, but playing on a sponsor exemption opened up with rounds of 66-65 and kept things going with a 71-68 finish.  He ended the week T-10th which gets him into the OHL Classic and will be interesting to see if the kid plays well this week.  I would put a dollar or two on him.

Course information:

El Camaleon was built by Greg Norman and opened in 2004. The course wines through three distinct landscapes tropical jungle, dense mangroves and sand-lined oceanfront. The design even incorporates a cenote – an underground cavern common to the area – into the heart of the first fairway. The PGA Tour made its first stop in 2007, spending six years opposite the World Golf Championships-Accenture Match Play Championship until getting its own fall date this year. In 2016, El Camaleón will serve as one of two hosts for the World Amateur Team Championships.

Located 45 minutes south of Cancun, in the heart of the Riviera Maya, Camaleon is aptly named for its diverse layout and ever changing landscape, always in total harmony with the region’s natural beauty.

For those that think that this is a resort course and is a pushover, that’s not the case.  The last time the Tour played there last year the course played under par at 70.02 and was ranked 35th.  In 2015 the coruse played to a 69.95 average and was ranked 38th while in 2014 it played to a 70.019 and ranked 39th toughest.  Now that is quite a drop and shows what happens when the wind blows in off the Gulf of Mexico and doesn’t.  Last year with a combination of wet and mild conditions, that is why we had a easy scoring average.  But in February of 2012 the course played over par at 71.65 and ranked 17th toughest, so it’s not a pushover. In looking at it’s characteristics it’s in the middle of the pack compared to other courses that held events in 2012.  Driving accuracy it was the 20th hardest, in greens hit the 21st hardest.  Same with putting, the overall putting average placed it T19th so it has it’s challenges.

Looking at how the course did last year, driving accuracy it was the 33rd hardest, in greens hit the T31st hardest.  Same with putting, the overall putting average placed it 34th so it has it’s challenges.

So what will the field be challenge by?  Conditions of wind on holes that get close to the sea, the par 3 7th and 15th are on the beach.  Course water hazards comes into play on six of the holes and there are 36 bunkers to avoid.  The greens average 7,000 square feet with the grass being a special blend called Sea Isle 1 Paspalum which is unique because you can use a seawater blend in irrigating the fairways, tees and greens.  The course has a rating of 73.8 from the back tees with a slope of 137.

In looking at long range forecasts the weather is suppose to be ok with partly cloudy skies every day and winds coming out of the east at 7mph.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the OHL Mayakoba Classic:

Key stat for the winner:

In a tournament that has a history of younger players participating, older more experience players have done well.  One historic oddity is the fact that seven of the nine past winners were over 30 with all the average winners just a month short of being 35. The first winner Fred Funk was 2 months short of his 51st birthday and last year’s winner Graeme McDowell was 36 years old.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

Tournament has only had limited stats, in 2012 John Huh led the greens hit category missing only 13 of the 72 greens. while 2014 winner Harris English was T-10th hitting 55 of 72 greens.  In 2015 Charley Hoffman hit 56 of 72 greens and ranked 4th while last year Graeme McDowell hit 51 of 72 greens and was ranked T-30th.  So I would say players and winners tend to hit lot’s of greens at El Camaleon.  One other oddity that I noticed of the winners, they did very well on the par 3s, In 2014 English played them in 9 under, Hoffman played them in 3 under while last year McDowell played them in 5 under.