BlogDP World Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

The final series has frankly been a disaster.  The original purpose of the Race to Dubai was to compete with the FedEx Cup in which there was a yearly point list that reached a point in which there would be four playoff events to see who was the winner of the Race to Dubai.  In previous years the race started in China with two events, one of the being the WGC-HSBC Champions.  Then it went to Turkey and ended in Dubai.  For years the biggest problem was that players that qualified for the Race to Dubai list but wasn’t part of the WGC-HSBC weren’t allowed to play.  This was a terrible flaw in the plan, how can you have playoff system in which a player qualified but wasn’t allowed into the tournament.  So the tour agreed for this year not to make the HSBC event part of the final series. Another problem arose when the BMW Masters, played in China decided not to hold the tournament, so the European Tour lost two of their four playoff events.  They decided to move the NedBank Challenge that was played in South Africa up a month and determined that there would be three playoff events, first the Turkish Airlines Open, then the Nedbank followed by the DP World Championship, Dubai.  Unfortunately in the last year Turkey has had a lot of terrorist problems including a car bomb that went off just down the road were the event was being played, so a lot of players dropped out.  Then the European Tour had the problem that some didn’t want to fly to South Africa for the NedBank, even though they had a charter go directly from London to Sun City, so you can see that you can’t really call it a playoff series if players don’t play.  Even the last event in Dubai, two players Russell Knox and Graeme McDowell decided not to play which again puts a black mark on the event.  The European Tour also lost Patrick Reed, one of the better American players who held dual memberships because Reed felt he wouldn’t be safe in Turkey and didn’t play.  This set off a chain reaction, since Reed had to play in all three playoff events to maintain his European Tour card, so with that not possible he was eliminated.

Making things even weirder, European Tour chief Keith Pelley decided to reinstate Reed for 2017 because of his victory in the 2014 WGC-Cadillac but it really didn’t matter for Dubai because Reed couldn’t play in it, even though last month it was on his schedule.  So it will be interesting to see what the European Tour does to try and beef up the series.  The answer is very complex because Pelley needs to get three events that put up a good chuck of money to sponsor this event and that was the reason for the NedBank coming into the fold.  But players really don’t want to travel from Turkey to South Africa and then Dubai.  One of the things we don’t understand is the European Tour charters jets to take players to these events, but that would mean that a player would go from London to Turkey, then back to London for a day before going to South Afica.  Then it’s back to London for a day before another charter takes them to Dubai.  So you can see the reasons for all of the problems, which are being worked on.  The schedule for the end of the European Tour hasn’t been finalize as they try to come up with a better solution.

Another problem with the Race to Dubai is that only four players could win the title.  On the PGA Tour they have worked out their system so that all 30 of those playing in the Tour Championship have a mathematic chance to win the FedEx Cup.  Realistically it’s only the top-ten, but the point is that everyone playing has some sort of chance.  But this week the odds are really high that the leader Henrik Stenson will win the race to Dubai.  Danny Willett, who is second has to win the DP World to have any chance of passing Stenson.  A win by Willett gives him the Race to Dubai.  In third place is Rory McIlroy and he has to win to stand any chance of reclaiming the Race to Dubai title and will need to rely on Henrik Stenson finishing outside the top 45, Danny Willett outside the top five and Alex Noren outside the top two.  You can see that the odds of Stenson finishing outside the top 45 is slim and done.  Now in fourth place and the last with any chance to win the Race to Dubai title is Alex Noren.  For him to do it he needs a minimum top two finish to clinch the title however can still lose the Race to Dubai by winning this weekend if Stenson claims second place.  Noren can also win with a second place finish if Henrik Stenson finishes outside the top eight and Danny Willett fails to make the top two.

So we can see another flaw in this fall series, it’s stupid to have a year end tournament in which those playing in it have no chance at the title, so this is nothing more than a money stab for the players.  This is something that wasn’t properly worked out when this series started in 2013 so hopefully with Keith Pelley in charge he can work up a better scenario for the coming years.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the DP World Championship:

Key stat for the winner:

Just look at the performance chart.  After it’s called up go to the top of the list and hit the link for top 10s and you can see that this event has been owned by five different players, Rory McIlroy, Lee Westwood, Charl Schwartzel, Branden Grace and Henrik Stenson.  Throw in guys like Louis Oosthuizen, Francesco Molinari, Shane Lowry, Sergio Garcia and Joost Luiten I can narrow down the 60 players in the field down to around ten.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

Two important elements come across in the previous seven winners.  First is driving distance, six of the seven winners were in the top-ten while two (Rory McIlroy last year andAlvaro Quiros in 2011) led while Rory McIlroy in 2012 was 2nd.  Hitting greens is also very important, last year’s winner McIlroy was T-3rd while the previous years winner Henrik Stenson was T-4th and led that category in 2013 just like Lee Westwood in 2009.  In 2011 Alvaro Quiros was T2nd, so you have to hit the ball good and straight from tee to green

All of the par-5s are easy, last year McIlroy was 9 under on them and the year before Stenson played them in 10 under. The best was 12 under by Alvaro Quiros in 2011 while the worst was Robert Karlsson in 2010 when he played them in 7 under

Surprisingly all of the winners have played the par 4s well, last year McIlroy was 10 under while the best was Henrik Stenson at 14 under in 2013. Lee Westwood played them in 13 under in 2009 while the worst was Robert Karlsson at 7 under in 2010.

You will have no probably with the weather as each day is sunny and in the mid-80s.  There are zero chance of any rain in the next week, and the wind will be mild, so players can attack the course