Draft Kings picks for this week
Everytime I say need to post this a bit early, I get another reason for waiting till the last moment to make picks. Because of all the rain that fell on the Plantation Course over the last month and week, I have been on a wait and see status. I have been to Kapalua a dozen times and know that it could rain an inch in the morning, but by 3pm the course would not only be bone dry, but as firm as a Scottish golf course that hadn’t had rain in a month. That is the heart and soul of the Plantation Course, the ability to play fast. As I right this there is about six hours left to enter and it’s time to make some decisions and yes I am still in flux. The sun as been out since Monday morning, but the course is still wet so wisdom says that long hitters like Dustin Johnson, Tony Finau, Bubba Watson, Patrick Reed and Jimmy Walker will have a big advantage.
One of the reasons that I have faith that this won’t happen is that there is not going to be any more rain but more importantly the wind will blow. It’s not going to be much, 10 to 15 mph but have to say that each minute, hour and day the course will dry up and play the way it’s suppose to. If that’s the case here are why I have eliminate some key guys from my DraftKings six picks.
One thing, this week is an oddity with the time change but picks don’t close till 3:20 so you have a lot of time.
First of all Dustin Johnson. Yes I saw that interview with Wayne Gretzky in which the great one said that he played a whole week with Johnson at Sherwood just out of L.A. and that not only way Johnson flawless, but had one round of 61. Dustin Johnson always worries me, you just don’t know how he will be. But I have this feeling, based on past tries at Kapalua that this is a really hard course for him and he will have a top-ten but it won’t be a win.
Next up, Patrick Reed. Yes he worries me because if you gave me three picks to win, he would be one of them. But I like Jordan Spieth and Hideki Matsuyama a bit more and Reeds 9,000 cost doesn’t work if I am going to take Spieth and Matsuyama. So I won’t have him and hold my breath because I know this could be a good week for him.
Now what about Bubba Watson. Sorry but I don’t like those in the middle of a ball change and frankly Watson has said how hard the greens at Kapalua are to read, so that eliminates him. Also helps that in five previous starts he has only been in contention once, 2013 when he finished T-4th, so don’t worry about him.
Next is Jimmy Walker who was runner-up in 2015 and T-10th last year. Sorry but Walker hasn’t shown us much since his 3rd place finish at the Deutsche Bank Championship and he struggled at the Hero World Challenge, on another course by the water in Bahamas.
Many like Tony Finau because of his length, but he hasn’t had a top-ten since winning in Puerto Rico almost ten months again and I just can’t see him waking up this week.
Now you have Finau who is 88th in the world rankings so that is easy, but I am also passing on number one Jason Day. This is solely based on the fact that he hasn’t played since October at the Tour Championship and I have to think that there will be rust to brush off his clubs. But in watching Golf Channel interviews and his main interview with media on Tuesday, he said that he has been practicing for over a month and feels that he brushed off the rust last week. I know he is a great putter, hit’s it long and did finish T-3rd at Kapalua in 2015. But he also finished T-9th in 2011 and when he took three months off last year was rusty and finished T-10th. So I think he will be in the top-ten, but won’t be first, second or third. Now this is a bit scary because I felt the same way about him at the Arnold Palmer and the Players Championship and he won both of them.
Lastly we have Brandt Snedeker who has a pair of third place finishes, the last one last year and always is tough, if healthy on the west coast swing. Snedeker finished T-6th at the Hero just seven shots back of Hideki Matsuyama and he does play well at Kapalua, but there is one thing that is in the back of my mind, he dump swing coach Butch Harman in October and I have to think he is in flux. So of all these guys Snedeker and Day I worry about the most, but hey have to make a decision.
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So here are my six DraftKings picks:
Jordan Spieth – 11,500: He really has his act together, he had a good and relaxing December, yes he didn’t play all that great at the Hero World Challenge, but I think it’s more on how the course doesn’t suit his game. He did win the Australian Open six weeks ago, has been working on his iron play which was a problem area lost year. But more importantly, he came to Kapalua early with his family and has had a great time. That is important and the fact that he likes the course as much as Augusta National and feels it’s in his DNA to play well at Kapalua, so that’s enough for me
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Hideki Matsuyama – $11,000: No reason for me to justify this pick, just look at his record the last three months.
So right off the bat I am using 22,500 of my 50,000 so that means I need to make four picks under 7,000.
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Branden Grace – $7,200: This could be the breakout star for 2017, like his game and think he can play well at Kapalua. Of course he has made a 12,000 mile journey from South Africa, it was four flights, 28 hours in the air but hey he’s a world traveler and use to jet lag. On top of that he just got married around Thanksgiving time and his bride is with him so I am expecting good things from him.
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Pat Perez – $7,100: How about the way he ended his year with a win in Mexico, have to think he is ready to go this week. Pat is a good putter, he makes a lot of birdies and his proximity to the hole stat is high. But what swayed me his only visit to Kapalua was a T-10th in 2010, if he can do that again I will be very happy.
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Cody Gribble – $6,700: You always have to take that bit of a gamble and I am doing that with Gribble. He had a great fall, winning for the first time at the Sanderson Farms and I just think he will be fine this week, possibly giving me a top-ten.
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Vaughn Taylor – $6,400: Last but not least I was down to my last choice and only was left with 6,500. So I was left with Jhonattan Vegas, Charley Hoffman, Jim Herman, Rod Pampling, Greg Chalmers and Taylor. Many say the choice is easy, Hoffman. But in looking at his stats they aren’t very impressive in those that are needed to play well at Kapalua, maybe that’s why in three previous starts his best finish was T-14th last year. He also has been struggling with his game since his last win at the Valero Texas Open, so that made my choice easy against him. Now in looking at Taylor, he’s been ok in the fall, did have a T-15th at the Safeway but the stat that made choosing him easy is that he was T-8th in this event in 2005 and T-4th in 2006, so he likes the course and has only been over par once in those eight rounds.
So who are your DraftKings top-six this week?
Happy New Year! Hope you had a great holiday.
Obviously I like Spieth and Matsuyama… but Berger and Vegas are also in my thinking.I also have Reed in my core and its making things difficult for salary cap reasons. Your thoughts on Berger and Vegas?
Probably should of spoke about Berger.
Did you see my Kapalua notes from last night?
He has used Taylor-made equipment since he was playing junior golf. In two years on tour Berger did pretty well with the clubs, winning his first tournament in the 2016 FedEx St. Jude Classic and winning just under $7.2 million in 60 events. For 2017 Berger is switching to Callaway and has been practicing with the new clubs most of the winter and is ready to go.
I don’t like players that are playing new clubs for the first time and for Berger he is playing with 14 new clubs this week, could take a bit for it to stick.