Draftkings picks, Sony, Africa

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

Draft Kings picks for this week

So how did we do last week?
Not bad, played in five games for SBS Tournament of Champions with a total cost of $75. My team of Hideki Matsuyama (2nd), Jordan Spieth (T-3rd), Pat Perez (T-3rd), Cody Gribble (T-14th), Vaughn Taylor (24th) and Branden Grace (32nd-last place) did ok. Yes I got a bit lucky with Spieth shooting a final round 65 and Perez shooting 67, unfortunately it could of been really good if Matsuyama could of overtaken Thomas. So the bad news, if Matsuyama could of won I would of collected just over $600, but instead my 601.50 points ended up winning just $135. Still it’s a profit of $60 and we can’t complain over making a profit.

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What about this week?
The PGA Tour and the Sony Open in Hawaii
Lot’s of decisions to make considering that four of the top-five from last week, winner Justin Thomas, 2nd place Hideki Matsuyama, T-3rd Pat Perez and Jordan Spieth are playing in the Sony. Now the difference between last week’s Plantation Course at Kapalua and Waialae Country Club are like night and day. Last week’s course was a wide open course in which the longest hitters had the advantage and good putting was rewarded while this week straight drivers are rewarded as Waialae has been the second toughest fairways to hit on the PGA Tour since 2003 (Quail Hollow was the hardest).
So back to those that played well last week, should they be favored this week? First of all it’s always hard to pick a player that wins the week before. Odds are that person is spent and frankly I think that will be the case with Thomas, it’s been a great last couple of weeks and Kapalua is such a great place for him. But I don’t think this week will be good, yes he finished T-6th in 2015 but he also missed the cut last year. Honestly the topper could of been with the last second defeat of Thomas Alabama team, add that to the equation and I just don’t think it’s going to be a good week for Justin. The same with Matsuyama, despite him winning four times, runner-up twice and fifth once in his last seven starts I don’t think this week will be good for him. That’s because I don’t think Hideki can play well at Waialae, in four starts he has only made one cut, in 2015 he finished T-78th. His scoring average at Waialae is 71.11 and he only has broken par twice in nine rounds so those are good reasons.
But I do like Spieth ($11,500) and Perez ($8,000) along with Jimmy Walker ($9,900), Paul Casey ($9.500), Scott Piercy (8,900) and Daniel Berger ($8,800) as those that will do well.  Too bad so many good choices but we just can’t take more than two players from the top. Some others to watch, Charles Howell III ($7,800) and Harold Varner III ($7,800) could be good but boy they are very costly, the bottom line is that it’s decision time

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So here are my six DraftKings picks:
One thing that I like, it didn’t take me long to make by picks, they just fell into place very easily which is always a good sign. By top pick is Jordan Spieth – $11,500: Yes he is expensive but worth the money. He played great last week, making the most birdies of anyone at Kapalua and 11 in his last 22 holes. His final round 65 will spark the momentum that will carry him to this week, Spieth was great last week finishing 5th in strokes gain approach-the-green and of course he was 3rd in strokes gained putting. So he is my choice and frankly a pretty easy choice. Now don’t worry with the fact that in his only Sony start is a missed cut, that won’t happen this week.

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Brandt Snedeker – $9,700: He finished T-14th last week which was a disappointment but he ranked 5th in the field in SG: Tee-to-Green, outperforming the field by +1.098 strokes per round. When missing the greens, Snedeker was able to salvage par 78.57% of the time ranking 5th in Scrambling. Last year Snedeker played in the Sony for the first time in 8 years and had to be surprised finishing 2nd. Think the fact that he played well last year, is always hot in the west coast swing winning four times in January and February so he was an easy pick

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Pat Perez – $8,000: He is expensive but he is playing great right now. He is coming off of a T-3rd place finish at last week’s SBS Tournament of Champions after a final round 6- under par 67. Perez found his touch on the greens in the final round at Kapalua, outperforming the field by +1.925 in SG: Putting and was a perfect 16 of 16 from inside of 10 feet. He has played in 15 Sony Open events and was T-4th in 2008, T-9th in 2013 and T-8th in 2014. In 53 rounds he has a 68.72 scoring average but more importantly on a roll and I don’t think he will let up this week.

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We get down to the guys that you have to manufacture, guys that are cheap and have some ray of light in their game to make them worth the pick. First up Zac Blair – $7,600: Gosh what makes this 26 year-old who has played in 71 PGA Tour events and only finished in the top-ten, four times so expensive? Probably the fact that his two Sony starts are half of his top-ten finishes, 3rd last year and T-6th in 2015. In eight rounds has a 66.13 scoring average with only one round over par, he is my secret weapon and I think he will do great.

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Jerry Kelly – $6,800: Another easy decision since the Sony Open is Kelly’s little annuity. This will be his 20th start and on top of his 2002 win, he has nine top-tens and only missed the cut three times. In 67 rounds he has a 68.40 scoring average but what really makes me feel comfortable with him is in the last three years has finished 3rd in 2014, T-6th in 2015 and T-9th last year. Hopefully he can keep the top-ten streak going.

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Steve Marino – $6,200: I was left with just $6,400and I needed that special pick. I looked over Rod Pampling, Ricky Barnes and Will MacKenzie and know of them have played well in the Sony. Marino was T-2nd in 2011, T4th in 2008 and T-7th in 2009 so he has played well at Waialae with a 68.45 scoring average in 22 rounds and just hope that he has the Hawaiian tradewinds in his blood and will do great this week.

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European Tour – South African Open
I told you how easy it was making my top-six picks for the Sony Open. The complete opposite for this, the field is not very strong and top-heavy with a lot of South African players that we don’t hear much from. It’s also very hard to find six solid guys that are playing well now but also have a good track record in the South African Open. Frankly that’s close to impossible and another fact, this is only the third time Glendower Golf Club is being used and frankly there isn’t one guy that stands out. Andy Sullivan won at Glendower in 2015 but missed the cut last year. Brandon Stone won last year but didn’t play in 2015.
Another problem, in working on my picks, there are four standout guys that you want to pick, first Rory McIlroy ($13,500), Andy Sullivan ($10,500), Brandon Stone ($10,200) and Thomas Aiken ($9,600). Now normally you would try to take McIlroy and one other of the three, but frankly I couldn’t even take McIlroy. The price is too dear and there aren’t any guys under $7,000 that you can point and say, “hey I have a half decent shot at this player”. It’s not there so I couldn’t take McIlroy. Is this hard? Probably, because the odds on him finishing in the top-ten is probably 8 in 10 and probably 70% of the folks playing the game will have Rory on their team.  Oh week.  Then I tried to parlay two of the next three players (Sullivan, Aiken and Stone) and I couldn’t find enough low level guys to make that work. So I have to pick middle tier guys and hope for the best. One last piece of advice, it’s probably best to play that one $3 game and stay with the Sony Open and players that will give you a better choice and chance.

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So here are my six DraftKings picks:
Barndon Stone – $10,200: Defending champion, he also won in his last start at the Alfred Dunhill in South Africa so that is good enough for me.

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Richard Bland – $8,700: Hasn’t played in this event in four years. Guy played good in 2016 and I just have to go with his good record

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George Coetzee – $8,400: South Africa may not have made a cut at Glendower, but he did finish 2nd in this even in 2012. Again went with his record in 2016 which wasn’t bad.
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Peter Uihlein – $7,800: At least a name I have heard of, playing in this event for the first time. In his last start in Hong Kong finished T-14th, think he will amke the cut and do well for me.

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Matthew Southgate – $8,700: A fresh name, he was T51st last year, has a way of making a lot of checks.

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David Drysdale – $7,100: Best player for a low price, he has two good finishes at Glendower and had a solid 2016 on the European Tour. Did finish T-11th last month in the Alfred Dunhill Championship, hoping for him to do some magic for me.

So who are your DraftKings top-six this week?

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