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The Buzz:

Tiger Factor

Lot’s to talk about but the big news has to be Tiger Woods coming back after a 17 month layoff from the PGA Tour.  He hasn’t played since the 2015 Wyndham and many are wondering what is in store for us.  He gave us a peak of what he can do at the Hero Challenge last month, when he led the field in birdies with 24, but finished T-13th.  He showed a lot of rust, making six double bogeys over the 72 holes to finish T-13th in the 18 man field.

Still the effort was there and showed that Tiger can still play.  As I see it, from tee to green he will probably be good, maybe not as awesome as in his prime, but good enough to contend.  I still worry about the putting, I don’t think Tiger can ever be as good with the putter as he was in all of his victories.  But again he is good enough to win on the PGA Tour.  But the big question mark for Woods could be his short game and chipping.  Two years ago he was terrible with this at Torrey and he showed a couple of times at the Hero that chipping could be a problem and was something that Woods has worked very hard on to overcome it.

I don’t think he will win this week or next in Dubai, but over the course of the year I can see him contending and maybe getting the right breaks at the right time to win.  The most important thing for Tiger is to stay healthy and my not playing and taking last year off he will reap the rewards from the patience.

The Weather

Good news, bad news.  The bad news first, on Monday heavy storms hit Torrey Pines and rain is in the cards all day on Tuesday.  The good news is that the storms move out on Wednesday, but in it’s wake will leave a very wet pair of golf courses.  Also with all of the rain the rough is not only very high but super thick and will play a major role for the week.  So the question will be, does this play for the long hitters, of will the short, straight hitter be ok.  The one thing that won’t work this week is hitting it off the fairway, even with short irons in their hands they will have a very tough time getting it on the greens.

A different experience on the North Course

For years the North course has been used for one of the four rounds.  Each year it becomes the Jeckel and Hyde of the event as the North course has played around three shots a round easier.  Now the South course was redone in 2002 with the purpose of making it tough for the 2008 U.S. Open.  When the South was redone, the same was suppose to happen for the North course but every year the project was pushed back and changed.  About five years ago it seemed that Phil Mickelson was going to get involved and redo the course, making it a bit harder for the tournament.  But the city of San Diego held back, many because they didn’t want to toughen the North course like they did the South course, but give it a major facelift and keeping in mind the regular folks that have loved playing the course.  Both courses as gems being played on bluffs above the Pacific and one of the great things of both courses was the scenic aspect.  As for the North, it had more great views and more enjoyable holes on the bluff.  So three years ago the decision was made to give the North course a major facelift, but to make it enjoyable for all since it does close to 100,000 rounds a year.  It was determined that Phil Mickelson’s company wasn’t going to do the changes and they went with Tom Weiskopf for the redesign.  With a budget of $12.6 million, Weiskopf decided not to redo any of the original holes, but he flipped the nines.  He also added close to 200 yards to the original yardage, but at the same time made the fairways and greens wider and bigger and made the rough more playable, to accommodate faster play.  He reduced the number of bunkers from 60 to 42 but basically made the course more playable for the average player.  At the other end for the professionals he has given some of the holes a different feel like the old 16th hole which is now the 7th. He has shortened the par 4 to 322 yards and made it a potential drivable par 4.  He also took the old par 4 8th hole (which will be the 17th) and added 150 yards making it into a par 5 while shortening up a bit the old 9th hole (be the 18th) and made it a tough par 4.

The big question will be if the pros continue to tear it apart?  With the tune of shooting 59 twice in the last two weeks, could this redo make the North course even easier than it use to be?  For the first year I don’t think so and see the course play a bit tougher, until the pros get use to it.  For those that have played the redone North, they say that Weiskopf did a wonderful job.

Course information:

• Played at the two courses at Torrey Pines in La Jolla, California
• South Course (Home Course) – Par:  72 / Yardage: 7,698
• North Course – Par: 72 / Yardage 7,258
• In 2016 the South course was the 2nd hardest course on the PGA Tour playing to a 74.498 average.  The North Course was the 38th hardest course, playing to an average of 70.929
• Both courses were designed by Billy Bell Jr. and opened in 1957.  In the 80s both courses were revamped with all new greens with the work done by the city.
• The south course opened first on June 19th, 1957 with Paul Runyan, Ralph Duldahl, Olin Dutra and a local pro, Don Gollett the first to play it.  Five months later the North Course opened.  Hard to believe that since the courses opened over 58 years ago, over 14 million rounds have been played on both courses.
• The two courses were the brainchild of Leo Calland, then director of San Diego’s park and recreation department. He pushed hard to change an old World War II camp into a golf course.  When he got permission, Bell came in and covered over the blacktop and could use the excess concrete to achieve rolling fairways on what was a flat site.  The lure of both courses after they opened was the views of the ocean on every hole.  Both courses sit atop of bluffs overlooking the Pacific and these views were seen a couple years later nationally when Challenge Golf filmed one of there matches with Arnold Palmer, Gary Player, Sam Snead and Doug Sanders.
• A decade later, the San Diego Open was looking around for a home.  Since the tournament was first played in 1952 it never really found a home.  It was played on several different courses but in 1968 it would embark on a big change.  It decided to copy several west coast tournaments by getting a headline celebrity to host the event getting Andy Williams who at the time was one of the biggest stars on television with a weekly show.  They also needed financial support and asked for the city for the use of Torrey Pines free of charge.  It was a match made in heaven.  The course proved very popular not only with the pros but the TV audience that watched it.
• Since then Torrey Pines has been the home of the tournament, although every year rumblings was heard that it could be replaced with a TPC course. Those rumblings ended with the economic downturn in 2008.
• After the 2001 Buick, the South course went through an extensive revamping process.  With the chance of getting the 2008 U.S. Open, $3.3 million was spent with Rees Jones adding a lot of length to the course.  Now, the course can stretch to 7,700 yards although the PGA Tour plays it below that figure.  Though Jones didn’t change the routing of the course he did redo all the bunkers and changed four holes moving greens on the third, fourth, fourteen, and fifteen holes.  With all the changes, it brought some bite back to a course which 30 years ago was considered very difficult by the touring professionals.  Average scores were up almost two shots compared to past years and the winning score of 275 was along with two other years the highest winning score in 20 years.  The revamp proved such a big success with the players, media and fans that the USGA gave the 2008 U.S. Open to Torrey Pines and that was such a big success that in 2021 the USGA will return the Open to Torrey.
• The North Course is three shots easier than the South but in some people’s minds the North is more scenic.  There’s a reason the par-3 15th is still the most photographed hole at Torrey, and the red sandstone cliffs on the northern edge provide as much beauty as anything else.  With the changes, it will be interesting to see how it plays.

Let’s take a look at key stats that are important for those playing on the South Course at Torrey Pines:

This is based on the most important stats for Torrey Pines South Course, based on data from last years Farmers Insurance Open, and using data from all the players in the field for with stats from 2016 and 2017. What we do is take their rank for each stat and average that number between players rank in ’16 & ’17.
Event is played on two courses, so the data is only for the rounds played on the South Course, not the one round data from the North Course
The scoring average of the field on Torrey South Course in 2016 was 74.50, so with par being 72 that means the average score was two and a half over per round, making the South Course the 2nd hardest course to score on in 2016. It’s also important to see how the weather played a factor, Sunday had high winds so bad that they had to finish the round on Monday, probably the reason the final round scoring average was 77.90.

In looking at the stats for Torry South last year, driving is important. In windy dry conditions, the course ranked 30th in driving distance and 11th in driving accuracy. More important than that, rough proximity is important because the greens were the 2nd hardest to hit so those out of the rough had a tough time getting it close to the hole, last year the average shot from off the fairway was 37 feet and 3 inches compared to 48 feet, 4 inches from the rough Last year’s winner Brandt Snekeker was the first champion since 2006 not to break 70 on the north course as he shot 70. The conditions were so tough last year that Snedeker’s one over par score after two rounds just made the cut on the number. Snedeker won not because he led any stats category but because he was in the right place at the right time. Still with all of the rain that has hit the San Diego area this month, the rough will be it’s toughest ever so more emphasis will be put on driving it straight and long. Of course hitting greens will be important along with scrambling. Last but not least look for good putting. Poa annua greens are hard to judge and are bumpy in the afternoons, so making putts is a key. Last year it ranked hardest in putts from the 4 to 8 foot range and 3rd in putts inside 10 feet. So since the average players have a tough time putting at Torrey, look for those that do well inside 10 feet.

So here is our four choices for the most important stats from players to do well at Torrey Pines South Course:

*Strokes gained off-the-tee: It’s a combination of hitting it straight and hitting it far. Since Torrey is so long, you have to hit driver off of most tees, but the fairways are narrow and the rough is hard if you get into it.

*Greens in Regulation: Important because hitting greens on the South Course is hard, last year it was the 11th hardest on the PGA Tour. Winner Brandt Snedeker was T-14th in greens hit.

*Putting inside 10 feet: In 2016 South Course was 3rd hardest in putts made inside ten feet. For the week, players made 85.73% of them or to be exact 3,748 out of 4,372. So making putts will be important.

*Scrambling: The South Course is hard in this stat, only Oakmont and the U.S. Open had worst scrambling stats as only 45.29% of the time were players able to get it up and down in 2015.

Below is the average of positions on stats from 2016 & ’17 PGA Tour statistics

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is a link to all of the stats of all in the field:

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Farmers Insurance Open

Key stat for the winner:

The South course can be stretched to over 7,600 yards but don’t look for that length although some tees will be back.  Driving will play an important role this week, specially with all the rain that has hit the San Diego area in the last month.  Look for those that do well in total driving stat, the one that combines both distance and accuracy together.  In the past couple of years, the course has prided itself with heavy U.S. Open rough which makes it tough to hit your shot into the green if you miss the fairway.  Last year it was 2nd in rough proximity while in 2014 and ’15 the course  was the hardest course on proximity to the hole as players in the rough averaged getting it 51 feet to the hole.  See the same happening this year so it’s best to keep it in the fairway.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

The course was revamped and toughened a 15 years ago and now has a “U.S. Open feel” to it.  In past years this course had the reputation as the course that major winners are victorious on as between 1992 and 2008 all the champions also had major victories except for one, Peter Jacobsen in 1995.  Nick Watney broke things up in 2009, Ben Crane in 2010, and Bubba Watson wasn’t a major winner when he won in 2011.  Brandt Snedeker kept the streak alive in 2012 but it was broken in 2013 when Tiger returned to the winners circle.  In 2015 Jason Day won but it would be seven months later before he won his first major at the PGA Championship, but still the course has a fair share of major winners.

One record still in tack, don’t look at a newcomer winning, the last rookie champion was in 1991 with Jay Don Blake.  Along with 1989 champion Greg Twiggs, Blake and Twiggs are the only Farmers champions to win just once on the PGA Tour.  Even more remarkable the only player to win the Farmers in his first start was Ted Kroll; the winner of the first Farmers in 1952 so don’t look for any rookie winners.

One great stat that got ruined in 2012.  Scott Stallings played twice before winning, missing the cut both times.  But before he became a winner just look at the winners since 2000.  All of them did well in previous Farmers starts.  We know about Tiger’s record, but look at the other non-Tiger winners going back to 2000:

• 2016 winner Brandt Snedeker – Winner in 2012
• 2015 winner Jason Day – finished T-2nd in 2014 and T-9th in 2013
• 2012 winner Brandt Snedeker –  finished T2nd in 2010 & 3rd in 2007
• 2011 winner Bubba Watson –  finished T4th in 2007
• 2010 winner Ben Crane –  finished T7th in 2009
• 2009 winner Nick Watney –  finished T9th in 2007
• 2004 winner John Daly –  finished 4th in 2003
• 2002 winner Jose Maria Olazabal –  finished T13th in 2001, first time he played in event
• 2001 winner Phil Mickelson –  finished Won in 2000
• 2000 winner Phil Mickelson –  finished 2nd in 1996, 3rd in 1994, and won in 1993
• The point is, it may be smart to look at guys like Shane Lowry, Rickie Fowler, Bill Haas and Jimmy Walker as good prospects for this week.

Greens that will be classified as “bumpy” may play a role in determining the champion.  Now people who have played it in the last couple of days say they are perfect, but anything could happen.  Although the South greens were redone in 2001, Poa Annua have crept back into almost 95% of the greens.  With that if it tends to get foggy in the morning, the greens will be inconsistent and drive players a bit crazy.  Again, patience will be the key here.

Look at the list of champions shows that scramblers have done very well in this event.  Look for the player who can get it up and down to win.  Last year it ranked 2nd in scrambling while in 2015 it ranked 10th and in 2014 it ranked 8th toughest on tour and has been in the top-ten six of the last eight years.

One round is played on Torrey North, a course that this year will be 440 yards shorter than the South.  Last year it played three and a half shots easier than the home South course.  To win, player needs to play great in his round on the North.  Since 1983, no champion has ever been over par on the North course and except for five years, they have shot in the 60s with 20 of the 32 shooting 67 or under.  Last year Brandt Snedeker shot 70 on the North Course, in 2015 Jason Day shot 65 on the North Course, so he was seven under on that course and 2 under on the South Course.  So look for the champion to go low on the North Course

Before Jason Day, Scott Stallings, Ben Crane, Bubba Watson, and Brandt Snedeker won this was a great bit of Farmer’s trivia.  Before Crane’s 2009 victory 15 of the previous winners had “California ties”  going a step further, 25 of 62 winners have either been born, raised, gone to school or live in California,  You may wonder why this stat is important?  Poa Annua is a grass found mostly in California that gives those that play and know the grass a special advantage, so that’s why it’s important.

The good news is that the weather will be perfect during the championship, but rains will make the course play very soft all week.  But that won’t mean it won’t be windy, on Thursday it will blow up to 10 mph, on Friday 17 mph and over the weekend between 10 and 15 mph.  So this will make the course even tougher.