DraftKings picks, Phoenix, Dubai

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

First of all, sorry late in getting this up. Matter of fact, late on everything. Sorry but the best plans went awry when my wife and I decided to spend two weeks in Florida for some hot weather (but it was cold) and take our two dogs. One of them is a 15 year-old Lab and he didn’t do very well on the 14 hour drive down and he seemed he didn’t like his accommodations in Florida. We have a big backyard with an acre fenced in so but dogs have free rein to go out door and enjoy things. In Florida we were in a great condo right on the beach, but with no backyard. So for the first time in a while it was on a leash for the two which they didn’t like. The lab stopped eating and wasn’t happy. In coming home from dinner on Sunday he noticed that he must of fallen down the stairs or something because he could hardly walk. Since we couldn’t find a vet we could trust, we packed up the car, cancelled the remaining ten days on the trip and drove home, what a pain. The good news, it was like a miracle, when we arrived home in the wee hours of Monday with snow falling, the lab realized he was home, went into the backyard to do all his business on his own (without being on a leash) and ate all of his food. The vet checked him out the next day to say the front paws were sore but he still has life in him and today is back to normal. So yes I am freezing in Washington D.C. but have by day-time companion back to normal so life isn’t that bad, other than I am late with things for this week, sorry.
So how did last week go?
We can be short on the obit, was completely shut out as many others were. When you chose Dustin Johnson and Jason Day and both miss the cut, don’t need to go into the rest. On the European Tour three of my six picks missed the cut including George Coetzee. The only good thing, I was in a hurry to drive down to Florida and only played in seven games for a total loss of just $28.

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So here are my picks for the Phoenix Open:
Lot’s of ways to go this week, the top is hard to grasp with Jordan Spieth at $12,000, Hideki Matsuyama at $11,700, Justin Thomas at $11,500 and Jon Rahm at $9,700. I also found some others at the top overpriced, guys like Gary Woodland at $9,000, Patrick Reed at $8,900, J.B. Holmes at $8,800, Harris English at $8,700 and the worst is Padraig Harrington at $8,500. So I had to work my way from the bottom, looking for bargins and only found two.

My picks:

The best is Chez Reave at $6,800 he is great when you consider he ranks high in proximity to hole and strokes gained tee-to-green. He has played great the last couple of weeks he finished T-8th at the Sony Open and T-12th at the CareerBuilder. He ended 2016 with a T-4th at Mayakoba so have a lot of faith in him even though he has missed the cut in this event his last two tries. In 8 starts hasn’t finished higher than T-41st but I think he will break that this week. The second good bargain is Patrick Rodgers at $6,600. Last year he was T-17th in this event but what swayed me was his T-4th in the Farmers last week. The hope is that he carries over some of that good play to this week. I was also happy to get Tony Finau at only $7,600. He may of missed the cut last year but was T-22nd in 2015. I also like that he was T-4th in San Diego and the fact that he was T-20th at Sony and T-9th at Kapalua, so he is playing pretty consistently. With that I was left with $29,000 for my top picks. I know that Hideki Matsuyama (at $11,700) is high and he has slowed down in his last two starts, but have to think that returning to TPC Scottsdale will get him going. He has played 12 rounds on the course, but under par 11 times and at par once for a total of 42 under, pretty impressive. I really wanted to pick either Justin Thomas or Jon Rahm (not interested in Jordan Spieth) but it was impossible to work it out. So I was able to get Brooks Koepka at $9,100, he has a great record at TPC Scottsdale. For my last pick got Brendan Steele at $8,200. He has three top-six finishes in six starts and for the year has been great with the win at the Safeway, and in 2017 was T-6th at Kapalua, T-6th at the CareerBuilders and T-20th last week. So I am very happy with my six picks, how does your picks look?

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Here are my picks for Dubai:
In doing these picks of course in looking at the sheet saw that Henrik Stenson was the top price at $12,300, with Rafael Cabrera-Bello at $10,800 followed by Bernd Wiesberger at $10,500. In looking at the sheet I didn’t see Tiger Woods price and was very surprised to see him down to $7,500. Of course I know that he missed the cut in San Diego, that he had to fly commercially from L.A. to Dubai and that a lot is being said on Tiger’s career being finished. Sorry I don’t agree, just think he is working everything out. Will he win this week, probably not but I really think he can finish in the top-ten and at $7,500 I think a lot of folks will take him this week.

The question to you, am I crazy?  Did any of you take Tiger at such a cheap price???

Of my other picks, my main one is Rafael Cabrera-Bello at $10,800, he is a past winner in this event and is playing good. Wanted to take Stenson, but just couldn’t work it out and he has a good record in Dubai, but it’s not earth-shattering like Rory’s is so I took a pass on him. My next pick is a big gamble in Jeunghun Wang at $9,300, he won last week in Qatar and was 11th in Abu Dhabi so I figure the streak will continue. My next pick is a sleeper for this week, Thomas Aiken is a bargin at $8,500 when you consider he has finished T-9th and T-7th in his last two starts in Dubai and he has three top-five finishes in four starts this year and was T-4th last week in Qatar. His worst start of the year came in Abu Dhabi and at T-13th I can’t complain, so like this pick a lot. My next pick was Pablo Larrazabal at $7,600, not bad considering he has played in Dubai eight times with mixed results (best finish T-20th in 2015) but this year he was T-8th in Hong Kong, T-2nd at Abu Dhabi and T-48th last week in Qatar. The bad news, I was left with just $6,300 and the picks weren’t very good. Of the 18 choices the best was David Lipsky (at $6,300), he was T-63rd in Dubai last year, T-27th in 2015 and in three 2017 starts was 5th in Hong Kong, T-39th at Abu Dhabi and T-41st in Qatar so rooting for him to play all four days to add points to my total.

So who were your picks, what do you think of my choices?

Comments

  1. Sal, your pick of Tiger has moved me to comment…..so are you crazy? Yes! Have I picked him? Absolutely no! This is just a chance for him to continue his recuperation whilst simultaneously filling his wheelbarrow full of cash…..he doesn’t look ready to be a factor yet. Have sent you a freebie H2H invite to see who is right 😉

  2. Matt,
    I really think this trip is more than filling up the whellbarrow of cash. Yes he is getting a big appearance fee, probably close to a million dollars but this is a man that doesn’t need the money. I really think that he wants to figure out how he gets back some of his form. This week is very important because he can’t miss the cut, the competition is not that great and it’s a short field, so missing the cut would be bad.
    Still I don’t think he will win but looking for some progress from San Diego and a Top-25 finish. The bottom line the cost of Tiger was pretty cheap.
    Matt have taken you up on your challenge, loser pays for the beers.
    Sal

  3. Matt,
    All I can say is are you kidding me Tiger, this golf course is a par 68 for you and you shot 77? With not a single birdie and playing the par 5s in 2 over??? You want to throw up with a score like that.
    Know it’s still early days, you can’t base things off of what he has done in Hero, San Diego and this week. But this is Tiger Woods, he shots 71, 72 and it’s understandable, but 77? In his career he has shot over 75 maybe a couple of times, mostly in bad weather. But not on a perfect day like this on a golf course that he should tear up with half the field under par.
    Sad days for Tiger.

  4. Indeed. We all want to see him back competing at the top. My point was that I don’t think he is ready to be back in contention yet, feel he is still in recuperation mode. Doesn’t mean he won’t get there. Dubai is tournament golf but lower key than 600,000 fans in Arizona, it could be worse…..

  5. And he’s out. This guy is mentally done.

  6. Have no idea what to say about Tiger. I watched a part of the Thursday telecast and Tiger didn’t look comfortable in walking. He was so upright and his whole routine looked strained. Again I saw this toward the end of his round, who knows if poor play would create this problem. Now some reporters asked Tiger after the round if their was any problem or pain and he said no, but it wouldn’t be the first time he lied about this.
    Guess we have to wait and see, thought it was weird that he misses the cut in San Diego, which would give him more time to get over to Dubai and instead he has to fly commercially. Not saying this was the problem, even flying commercially Tiger is not flying like you and I, he was in first class and had the best so that’s not the excuss.
    Guess we will have to wait and see.

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