After 13 events, 2017 is turning into a very impressive year. We have seen possible new superstars in Hideki Matsuyama, Justin Thomas and Jon Rahm winning but with Jordan Spieth’s victory at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-am we can see that the upcoming majors and WGC events are going to be very exciting. After last year when Spieth cooled down, and Dustin Johnson zoomed ahead of everyone, Spieth spent some time in the fall with his team accessing what he needed to do. The most important aspect that he realized is that he is a great putter and when his tee to green game is sharp, there is no beating him. A perfect example of this, in 2015 when he won five times (two of those majors) he ranked 49th in greens in regulation and 80th in driving accuracy. But in 2016 those stats changed as he was T-145th in Greens hit and 123rd in fairways hit. This and with his mistake in playing at Abu Dhabi and then Singapore which ran him down, made his decision easy in how he was he was going to change the way he did his scheduling. He needed to make sure in the future to have enough time off to not only recharge his batteries but give him the proper time to work on his game at home with his coaches.
This was first done by Jack Nicklaus in the 70s, and Tiger Woods followed this practice and never overextend himself. After the Ryder Cup, Spieth took time off and worked hard on his game and when he played in the Australian Open showed the dividends of his work with a victory. Since then Spieth has played in five events and has not been out of the top-ten. His play this week in the AT&T Pebble Beach pro-am has given proper warning that his game from tee to green has improved and with his great putting he is the threat to run the tables like he did in 2015. For fantasy golf players we are also seeing a pattern in which Spieth is showing several places like at the AT&T Pebble Beach that he plays well in and will find a way to contend every time he plays in these events. His next can’t miss event could be this week’s Genesis Open where he finished T-4th in 2015 and T-12th in 2014.
So what did Spieth do right this week?
The first thing he did right was lead the field in number of birdies (23) and have the least amount of bogeys made (4). He did this by finishing 3rd in Greens in Regulation, 4th in Strokes gained putting and 8th in Scrambling. Spieth also had the luck of the draw, he was able to play Monterey Peninsula on Thursday and Spyglass on Friday in the rain and high winds. Monterey Peninsula has nine holes tucked in the trees for protection and Spyglass has 12 holes that are protected from the winds. In looking at the 13 players that finished in the top-ten, nine of them played like Spieth at Monterey Peninsula on Thursday, Spyglass on Friday and Pebble over the weekend.
Just look at this chart and you can see the advantage these players had with the favorable pairings
Round Monterey Pen. Spyglass Hill Pebble Beach
1 72.451 73.308 74.212
2 71.932 71.932 73.202
3 67.276 68.641 68.578
To show you the difference, Cameron Percy was the only player to finish in the top-ten that played at Pebble in the first round. He shot 73 in the first round when the course played to a 74.212 average. Spieth shot 65 on Saturday at Pebble when the scoring average was 68.578 so you can see how the luck of the draw had a big say in this year’s AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-am.
Let’s also talk about Spieth’s third round 65, it wasn’t the low round of the week but was the low round of Saturday. He hit 11 of 14 fairways, 12 of 18 greens but had 8 birdies and one bogey as he one-putted 13 of the 18 greens. He made 105 feet, 9 inches of putts, he only made three putts over ten feet but didn’t miss a putt under ten feet. With this round Spieth just about wrapped up the tournament as he took a six shot lead into the final round. Have to wonder what Dustin Johnson was thinking, he was last year’s top player and was in Spieth’s group the first three days and witness Spieth’s great play, including Jordan’s back nine 31 which included birdies at 15, 17 and 18. As good as Saturday’s round was, sometimes holding a big lead is tough and Spieth couldn’t have been any better, boring yes, he still did what was needed. With two-time AT&T champion Brandt Snedeker six back and two-time AT&T winner Dustin Johnson seven back, they both had the power and experience to overtake Jordan if he slipped.
Even without his putting touch, Spieth showed the efficiency on Sunday of a champion by hitting 9 of 14 fairways and 16 of 18 greens as he didn’t make a bogey and played a very robotic final round, the kind that made Jack Nicklaus and Tiger Woods famous. It was boring, and everyone knew it as Spieth said after the round it was the finest he ever struck the ball closing a tournament.
A couple of things about Spieth, first at 23 years, 6 months and 16 days old, Spieth becomes the second-youngest player since World War II to win nine PGA Tour events, the youngest was Tiger in 1999 by just a month. He is six months younger than Jack Nicklaus was when Jack won his ninth event at the 1964 Phoenix Open.
Spieth has a very impressive record with nine wins in his first 100 professional PGA Tour starts. But he is left in the dust by Tiger, who also won his 100th professional start but it was his 28th PGA Tour win. Also in the equation for most PGA Tour wins in their first 100 starts is Rory McIlroy who had 11.
So the debate is on, who is the best?
With 8 weeks left before the Masters and just 3 weeks before the WGC-Mexico, have to say that Spieth is the best. At 23 years old he is showing the maturity of someone tens years older. But of the big-four, Spieth, Jason Day, Dustin Johnson and Rory McIlroy, Spieth has shown that he is ready to challenge. McIlroy won in South Africa last month, but we still don’t know the state of his health with his rib injury. And Day and Johnson haven’t shown us much, yes Johnson finished 3rd and Day finished T-5th, but they both aren’t sharp like Spieth or even Justin Thomas or Hideki Matsuyama. So it’s no surprise that Jordan is the Las Vegas favorite at 6/1, followed by Day and McIlroy at 10/1 with Johnson and Matsuyama at 12/1.
Genesis will be Spieth’s last start before Mexico (won’t be playing in Honda), but for DraftKings players expect to pay top dollar for Spieth.
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Other news from this week:
Have been very impressed with the way Phil Mickelson has played since his hernia surgeries. He was T-21st at the CareerBuilder, T-14th at the Farmers, T-16th at Phoenix and was in contention going into the back nine at the AT&T. On Sunday Mickelson got it to six under when he made birdie at the 7th hole and for many including myself started thinking ahead to the Genesis Open, an event Mickelson has won twice. But at the 10th hole Mickelson drove it right off of the fairway and in the high grass that slopes down to the beach. Phil had to take a penalty shot and went on to take a double bogey. He then bogey 13 before hitting two tee shots left out of bounds on 15 on the way to making his first quadruple-bogey of the year. Now it wasn’t Mickelson’s biggest score at Pebble, in the third round in 2008 Mickelson made an 11 on the 14th hole. Things didn’t get better as Phil bogey the 18th hole to shot a back nine 44 and 77, finishing last of all the players that participated in 72 holes. When I saw how Mickelson was doing I started thinking that Phil could be a very good pick at Riviera, but now I have to wonder if Phil may be getting tired after playing four straight weeks after he hernia surgery. With bad weather predicted in L.A. for tournament days, wouldn’t be surprised if Phil takes the week off.
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