BlogValspar Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

The Valspar is one of those unfortunate events on the PGA Tour.  Played on a truly great golf course, it doesn’t get the field it deserves, manly because it falls the week after the WGC-Mexico and right before the Arnold Palmer.  This year is no better as the tour no longer stays in Florida four straight weeks, broken up with a trip to Mexico.  Unfortunately the schedule will stay the same for next year as this event   The true gem, the Copperhead course is one of those courses that doesn’t get the credit it deserves.  The course is flat, but doesn’t seem to be in Florida with it’s tree-lined fairways and undulating greens.  The course is one that doesn’t favor long hitters because of the design of architect Larry Packard.  So each year the winner is usually a player that doesn’t hit it very long, but thinks his way around the course.

One thing that was surprising is that Jordan Spieth isn’t playing.  In looking at his schedule he is just playing in two weeks at the WGC-Dell Match play and that’s it before the Masters.  He just finished playing in his 4th event in five weeks so I can understand he could use the break, but this event was so important for his 2015 year of winning the Masters and U.S. Open, thought he would always play.

Through the WGC-Mexico Championship, seven of the last nine winners in the 2017 calendar year have been inside the top 25 in the Official World Golf Ranking: Justin Thomas (SBS Tournament of Champions/22); Thomas (Sony Open in Hawaii/12); Hideki Matsuyama (Waste Management Phoenix Open/5); Jordan Spieth (AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am/6); Dustin Johnson (Genesis Open/3); Rickie Fowler (The Honda Classic/14); and Johnson (WGC-Mexico Championship/1)

Things you need to know about the Valspar Championship

• This will be the 17th Valspar Championship, with the first one being played in 2000.
• The tournament was formally called the Tampa Bay Classic and then changed in 2003 to the Chrysler Championship.  Chrysler dropped out in 2006 and PODS took over sponsorship and got an added boast with the advent of the FedEx Cup series and the transfer of the Players Championship to May.  So in 2007, just six months after the close of the 2006 event the tournament moved into it’s new March date. But that didn’t last long as with a change of management at PODS, they were gone after the 2008 event.   The power of the PGA Tour shined through as Transitions Lens, an optical lens manufacturing company, who’s headquarters are in the Tampa Bay area, came to the rescue with a four year deal but unfortunely that deal came to an end after the 2012 event.  They got EverBank to write off some of the expenses in 2013 but for 2014 got their sixth and present sponsor Valspar, a company that manufacturers of paint and coatings.  The 2001 event wasn’t played because of the 9/11 tragedy.
• When the tournament first started in 2000, it was the first time that a full PGA Tour event was held in the area since the St. Petersburg Open, which was held between 1930 and 1964.  The course was the home of the mix-event JCPenney Classic, which ended in 1999.

Course information:

• Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead Course)
• Palm Harbor, Fl.
• 7,340 yards     Par 36-35–71
• Course has a 76.8 rating and slope rating of 144 from the championship tees. The course is part of a resort and is open to those that stay at the course.  It also sells local memberships.
• The course has 63 bunkers and eight water hazards in which six holes have water in play for the professionals.
• Last year the Copperhead course was the 6th hardest course on the PGA Tour with a 72.618 average, playing over a shot and a half over par. In 2015 the course was the 10th hardest on tour with a 71.863 average while in 2014 the Copperhead course was the 6th hardest course on the PGA Tour with a 72.433 average, playing almost a shot and a half over par.
• The Copperhead course was designed by Larry Packard and opened in 1974.  It was restored in 1999, two years after it was purchased by Westin Inc, The goal of the restoration project was to regain the shot values and still challenge today’s longer-hitting PGA Tour players when Innisbrook hosts PGA Tour events. The plan involved refurbishing all 18 greens, restructuring many of the bunkers, removing some trees around the greens to improve air movement and sunlight, and clearing out undergrowth between fairways. The length of the golf course is the most visible change from 7,087 to 7,230 yards by the addition of tournament tees on five holes.  Since then minor renovations has added another 110 yards to the course.

Let’s take a look at key stats that are important for those playing on the Innisbrook Copperhead Course:

This is based on the most important stats for Cooperhead Course, based on data from last years Valspar Championship, and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2017. What we do is take their rank for each stat and then add up the four catagories.
The scoring average of the field at Cooperhead in 2016 was 72.62, so with par being 71 that means the average score was a shot and a half over par, making Cooperhead the 6th hardest course to score on in 2016 (only five courses played harder). It’s also important to see how the weather played a factor, last year’s weather was pretty good as they had high winds blowing between 10 and 20 mph all four days. This year the weather will be good all four days, with a chance of showers late in the afternoon on Sunday.

In looking at the stats for Cooperhead last year, Greens hit, Driving Accuracy and putting from 4 to 8 feet are important. In stats from 2016 the Copperhead course was the 3rd hardest greens to hit and was 6th in proximity to hole With that are first stat will be strokes gained approach the green. Second up is fairways hit, the course ranked 13th on tour and 19th in driving distance. This is combined to figure out Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee to determine who saves the most shots with their drives on par 4s and 5s. Next up is putting and the Cooperhead course was the 7th rank course in putting average, meaning it was demanding to putt on the course which has large greens which are sloopy. It’s interesting to note that the course ranked 17th in putting from 10 to 15 feet, 3rd in putting from 15 to 20 feet, 1st in putting from 20 to 25 feet and 4th in putts over 25 feet. This is also an important element and one that goes in the Strokes Gained Putting stat. Last we have Par Breakers as the course was the 2nd hardest course on the PGA Tour to get birdies and eagles. This is one of the reasons the scoring average is high, players just can’t makes a lot of birdies or eagles.

So how did the winner Charl Schwartzel become victorious last year? In Strokes Gained approach the Green Schwartzel was 3rd and in strokes gained tee-to-green he was 4th. In driving accuracy he as T-65th and in driving distance, T29th. In Strokes gained approach-the-Green he was 3rd as he was T-10th in this category last year. Schwartzel was 12th in Strokes gained Putting while in Par Breakers he was 1st last year in this event.

*Strokes gained Approach-the-Green: This is a good indication on players that do the best at hitting the greens and getting it close to the hole to see who picks up the most strokes on the total shots into the green.

*Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee: Driving the ball is another important element and this stats calculates the number of strokes either gained or lost off the tee

Strokes Gained Putting: No matter how good your game is, you have to make these putts in order to win. This stat takes into effect everything that happens on the greens and calculates the number of shots either gained or lost.

*Par Breakers: The course is so demanding that making a lot of birdies and eagles aren’t possible. So players that are able to make a lot will do well on this course which ranked 6th in this stat on tour in 2016.

Below is the average of positions on stats from 2017 PGA Tour statistics:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is the link to all of the stats for all players in the field this week

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Valspar Championship:

Key stat for the winner:

In looking at the 16 champions of this event, eleven of them have this in common.  They were in the top-eleven in greens hit.  Matter of fact four of them was in the top-five while Gary Woodland in 2011 ranked T29th and Luke Donald was T43rd in 2012.  In 2013 Kevin Streelman was T11th in that stat, while 2014 champion John Senden was T3rd in greens hit.  Last year Charl Schwartzel ranked T-10th in greens hit.  So it is important to hit lots of greens and for those that do they usually have a bit of an advantage.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

This event is one of the hidden gems on the PGA Tour.  Played on a great course, unfortunely it’s in a bad time between Doral and the Palmer to really get a great field.  One thing for certain there is many players that respect the course and show up, of it’s past champions all active players are in the field (with the exception of Jim Furyk who is hurt).  This event was played in October until 2007 and the change hasn’t made much of a difference other than the rough is a bit healthier now.

Accuracy is more of a premium at Copperhead than length.  This course can’t be overpowered like many other courses like next week at Bay Hill.  Stats that prove this is first driving distance averages, in 2016 the average of all the drives in the field was 275.7 yards, the 8th lowest on the PGA Tour.  Since 2005 it’s been in the bottom six every year of shortest driving average course.  So it only makes sense that if you look at the champions the only real long drivers were Gary Woodland in 2011 and Vijay Singh in 2004.  All the others were in the middle to back of the pack in average driving distance; so this is the one course that short hitters can do well on.

This chart shows how short the champions have been since 2005:

Year-winner                        Driving distance/rank for week       Driving distance all drives/rank for year

• 2016-Charl Schwartzel                                  292.0 (T-29th)                                                    290.5 (30th)
• 2015-Jordan Spieth                                       275.3 (T-26th)                                                   291.8 (T-78th)
• 2014-John Senden                                         279.1 (20th)                                                        282.0 (T87th)
• 2013-Kevin Streelman                                  270.8 (48th)                                                        279.6 (T99th)
• 2012-Luke Donald                                          264.1 (75th)                                                         269.2 (198th)
• 2011-Gary Woodland                                       295.5 (7th)                                                          297.4 (5th)
• 2010-Jim Furyk                                               261.0 (73rd)                                                      273.0 (172nd)
• 2009-Retief Goosen                                      283.8 (25th)                                                       286.2 (43rd)
• 2008-Sean O’Hair                                           282.6 (8th)                                                       287.3 (T30th)
• 2007-Mark Calcavecchia                              276.9 (T34th)                                                    284.4 (T66th)
• 2006-K.J. Choi                                               274.5 (T42nd)                                                   280.5 (T103rd)
• 2005-Carl Pettersson                                     283.9 (40th)                                                     283.1 (T74th)

• Maybe it’s no coincidence that players that hit it long took this week off, as of the top-20 in the driving distance stats for 2017, only eleven are in the field this week.
• Another important stat is putting, and the greens at Innisbrook are some of the hardest on the PGA Tour because of the undulation and grain on the greens.  Last year it was the 9th hardest course to make putts between 4 and 8 feet, with 67.06.  In 2015 it was the 2nd hardest course with 64.25.  In 2014 it was the 3rd hardest course to make putts from 4 to 8 feet while in 2013 it ranked 6th.  In putts inside 10 feet, it ranked 26th last year,  9th hardest in 2015 and 4th on the PGA Tour in 2014.
• Florida is always windy, look for that to play havoc on the players who haven’t had to play Innisbrook under windy conditions
• All the par 5s is within reach of the average player and though the course is over 7,300 yards. this won’t present much of a problem, look for lots of par 5 greens to be hit in 2. The average of all the champions on the par 5s is just a notch under 8 under   In 2012 & ’13 both Luke Donald and Kevin Streelman were 9 under on the four par5s, while in 2014 John Senden was 7 under.  Jordan Spieth played the par 5s in 7 under in 2015 and Charl Schwartzel was 9 under on the 5s..
• Look at all these facts and you can conclude that good ballstrikers rule the roost at Innsbrook.  This is not your typical Florida type of course because the fairways are tight, the rough will be tall.
• One oddity that you don’t see in most events is the fact that you don’t have many players that shot four rounds in the 60s.  Of the 15 champions only four have accomplished that, in 2002 with K.J. Choi, in 2004 with Vijay Singh, in 2010 with Jim Furyk and in 2011 with Gary Woodland.
• Another oddity along this line, in the history of this event only 47 times has someone broke par four times during the week.  Last year nobody accomplished the feat while in 2015 Jordan Spieth was the only player to complete the feat.  Making this stat odd is the fact that only 11 times has this happen when the event was played in the spring; the last time it happened was 12 times in 2012.  In 2014 and ’13 nobody shot four rounds in the 60s.
• The last six winners have been gone on to have great seasons as they have finished the year of their win inside the top-30 in FedEx Cup standings, with 2010 champion Jim Furyk and 2015 champion Jordan Spieth winning the FedEx Cup title.

Year-Winner                  Final rank FedEx Cup year won

• 2016-Charl Schwartzel                               30th
• 2015-Jordan Spieth                                     1st
• 2014-John Senden                                     23rd
• 2013-Kevin Streelman                               25th
• 2012-Luke Donald                                      9th
• 2011-Gary Woodland                                  17th
• 2010-Jim Furyk                                           1st

Weather is always of interest, especially the forecast of wind that makes the course play really hard.  This week the wind will be up to 10 mph each day with the possibility of getting wet on Sunday..