TPC Sawgrass Key Fantasy Stats

The Players Championship

May 11th – 14th, 2017

TPC Sawgrass

Ponte Vedra Beach, FL

Par: 72 / Yardage: 7,189

Purse: $10.5 million

with $1,890,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Jason Day

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This is based on the most important stats for TPC Sawgrass, based on data from last years Players Championship, and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2017. What we do is take their rank for each stat and then add up the four catagories.

The scoring average of the field at TPC Sawgrass in 2016 was 72.05, so with par being 72 that means the average score was just a bit over par, making TPC Sawgrass the 19th hardest course to score on in 2016. The course is very unique and the weather has a lot to do with it. It’s about a mile from the Atlantic and if the wind blows, it plays very tough. Each hole is challenging with water on every one of them, but water becomes a hazard on 12 holes, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9,11, 12, 13, 14, 16, 17 and 18. Bunkering is also hard along with chipping as most of the greens are raised so a hot missing a green is an adventure getting it up and down.
Between the first year it was played at TPC Sawgrass in 1982 and 2006, it was played in March which conditions were totally different, due to higher winds and cooler weather. When the dates changed in 2007 to May, winds decreased and it was a lot warmer. You could say that the change of dates made the event play easier because of the lack of wind. Now has this change of date caused the course to play different, no. The winners have been pretty consistent as in most years hitting greens is very important. Between 1997 and 2006, seven of the ten winners were in the top-ten in greens hit, with four of them leading that stat. Since the change to May, of the ten winners five of the winners have been in the top-ten with only one, Sergio Garcia leading in greens hit. So in a way we are seeing the importance of hitting greens not as important.
In looking at our four categories, for the importance to win last year TPC Sawgrass saw Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green as T-2nd on tour so we pick that as are key stat. In looking at our past winners, last year Jason Day was 3rd in this stat, while in 2015 Rickie Fowler won ranking 5th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. In 2014 winner Martin Kaymer was 2nd in this stat while 2013 champion Tiger Woods was 1st. So you can see that Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green is very important in winning at the Players.
Next important stat is Proximity to hole. In 2016 it ranked 14th on tour, but for 2016 champion Jason Day he ranked T-50th in this stat. But in 2015 this stat was important in Rickie Fowler’s win, he was T-3rd while in 2014 Martin Kaymer was 46th while Tiger in 2013 was T-23rd. Still since it’s important to hit greens and get it close we feel the importance of this stat.
Our third important stat is scrambling, since it’s important to hit greens and hard to do this, you have to be able to get it up and down on the greens you miss. Last year the course was 9th in scrambling, while we see that last year’s winner Jason Day was 1st in this stat. In 2015 Rickie Fowler was 10th while in 2014 Martin Kaymer was 4th and Tiger Woods in 2013 was 6th. So you can see the importance of hitting greens.
Our fourth stat is something that was very hard to pinpoint. That is because putting doesn’t show us much and there is nothing that catches our attention in playing the par 3s, par 4s and par 5s. But one thing that TPC Sawgrass does give up is a lot of birdies. Seems hard to believe since the course is so hard, but last year 1,649 birdies was made on the course. This ranked 44th so only six course on tour last year saw more birdies made. One thing to realize is that the field is 156 players, which about half of the fields are that size on tour. But if you look at some of the other courses that have had more birdies, they aren’t as challenging as TPC Sawgrass so that is why making lot’s of birdies is important. Now total birdies is very misleading since some players like Dustin Johnson and Adam Scott haven’t played as many events as some that play week in and week our. So our fourth important stat is birdie average, which is the average birdies made for each of the rounds. In looking at the last four winners, Jason Day last year ranked T-2nd in birdie average, 2015 winner Rickie Fowler was T-1st, Martin Kaymer in 2014 was T-9th and Tiger in 2013 was T-15th.

*Strokes Gained tee-to-green: Course may have only been 25th hardest on tour, but you need to hit it long and straight along with hitting lot’s of greens. So this is important to find a player that will do this

*Proximity to hole: Hitting greens is important, last year Quail Hollow ranked 12th, but in proximity to hole, which tells how close players get to the hole, Quail Hollow ranked 6th as the players averaged getting it 40 feet.

*Scrambling: The percent of time a player misses the green in regulation, but still makes par or better.

*Birdie Average: Takes the number of birdies and multiplies it by the number of rounds so that we can see what the average of birdies are made per each round.

131 players from this year’s field with stats from 2017 (Key players like Rory McIlroy, Henrik Stenson and those from the European Tour like Tommy Fleetwod, Lee Westwood, Bernd Wiesberger & Danny Willett don’t have enough rounds):

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.