DraftKings Colonial, BMW PGA

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:

DraftKings picks for the week

So how did I do last week?

It was one of those weeks that I lucked out.  I played 10 games at the cost of $115 and won $110, so I was a $5 loser for the week.  But it could of been worst.  In the regular contests I played six games and frankly was lucky to win $45.  Of course I had one guy miss the cut, this week it was Brandt Snedeker.  I did the best with Bud Cauley who finished T-5th, I got bitten by Dustin Johnson’s poor weekend as he finished T-13thSung Kang got off to a great start but could only post a 70 on Sunday so he finished T-20thNick Watney finished T-40th and Brian Gay was T-50th.  So in a way I lucked out winning $65.  I made up for it with the weekend games, I played in 4 of them.  I carried over Bud Cauley, Dustin Johnson and Sung Kang.  Were I won was picking up Byeong Hun An who helped me get 32.75 points, Marc Leishman who got me 40.25 points and Billy Horschel who won me 42 points helping me win $55.  I am liking the weekend game, the trick to it is to make sure you take the guys with the biggest product of birdies and eagles.  So I look at a couple of things, first the Parbreaker stat for those on top and then I look at how their product has been the first two days.  In the five weeks of weekend play I have been ahead so I like the weekend play.


Picks for Dean & Deluca

So for this week Jordan Spieth is the high money man at the ridicules price of $12,000.  Now I have talked about this before, but I will never pick a player over $11,000, because it hurts you in how you pick the other 5 players.  Now there are some exceptions like last week with Dustin Johnson at $12,500, he was playing so well and the guys on top I really didn’t like.  But for this week Spieth is way too much.  Yes he won last year and finished T-2nd, but his putting hasn’t been sharp and he has missed the last two cuts and three of his last five cuts.  I explained in the preview his putting woes so for anyone that picks Spieth it may not be a wise move.  As for the other top guys, Sergio Garcia is $10,800, Jon Rahm is $11,800, Paul Casey is $10,200, Matt Kuchar is $10,100 and I am very surprised that Zach Johnson is at $9,800.  Of the group I like Casey, Rahm and Garcia who is my first choice.  I tried to make either Rahm or Casey work and it just didn’t fit.  Instead I picked Jason Dufner who is at $9,000.  He has a great record at Colonial, he has played good this year and I like the fact that he ranks 35th this year in Ball Striking, 32nd in Fairways Hit, 32nd in Par Breakers and 35th in Strokes Gained Putting.  I forgot to tell you why I like Sergio, in his two starts since the Masters he finished T-30th at the Players with a 78 in the final round.  He was T-20th at the Nelson with a 74 in the final round so you can see he is playing good, just is snake bitten in the final rounds.  Oh I also like that he ranks 2nd this year in Ball Striking, 31st in Fairways Hit and 23rd in Par Breakers.  I have to ignore that he is 188th in Strokes Gained Putting, because his ball striking is so good.  Colonial is one of these courses that stats are important, specially on shot making, par breakers and if those aren’t good putting is important.  I had to now be careful in picks, I can’t spend more than $8,000 on players.  So my third pick is Ryan Palmer at $7,900.  He was a last minute change after I broke my golden rule of him having the right stats.  Palmer doesn’t have them but for the year he has played ok but what swayed me was his good finishes at Colonial, He was T-3rd last year, T-5th in 2014 and 2012.  Next up was Pat Perez at $7,600, he has all the good stats, was T-5th in his last appearance at Colonial in 2015 and has had a great year with a T-2nd finish at Wells Fargo and T-22nd at the Players.  Next pick is Kyle Stanley at $7,400 and he is the one guy I am worried about.  He ranks 1st this year in Ball Striking and 17 in Fairways hit which is a plus but for some odd reason in six starts his best finish is T-27th at Colonial.  What swayed me was his T-4th finish at the Players, just think that will carry over to this week.  My last pick is I think a steal and one that many won’t consider, Steve Stricker at $7,300.  He has a great record at Colonial and has played great this year, last week he was T-13th at the Regions Tradition.  He’s not going to win, but I think he will make the cut and may surprise some with a top-25 finish.  One thing to worry about, Stricker won’t make many birdies which is his only down side.  So here are my picks for Colonial:

Sergio Garcia at $10,800

Jason Dufner at $9,000

Ryan Palmer at $7,900

Pat Perez at $7,600

Kyle Stanley at $7,400

Steve Stricker at $7,300


Picks for BMW PGA Championship

The biggest tournament on the European Tour, played at Wentworth Golf Club outside of London it’s a tournament that more players from America should play in.  I was looking at picking in this event until I saw the prices.  Justin Rose, who would have been my top choice was $11,700.  But the rest of the picks are so high it created a problem.  New was Henrik Stenson at $11,500, frankly he isn’t playing well and I wouldn’t touch him.  Next was another guy that I would of picked but at $10,400 Francesco Milinari is too expensive.  After that is another guy I would pick in Bernd Wiesberger at $9,900 followed by another of my picks Alexander Noren at $9,800.  So my first thought was how much of a bummer this was going to be.  So I started from the bottom up, half the field is at $6,800 and under but I didn’t find anyone that I liked.  At this point I found it very tough to pick, but I put the puzzle together and came up with this:

Alexander Noren at $9,800

Martin Kaymer at $9,100

Chris Wood at $8,300

Peter Uihlein at $8,000

Alexander Levy at $7,700

Julien Quesne at $7,100

So how did I come up with this? I first picked Peter Uihlein because I always seem to like him, he makes cuts and lot’s of birdies so I like him.  Next up was defender champion Chris Wood, he has a great record at Wentworth and is worth a go.  I also like the record of Julien Quesne, I needed a low person and he fit the bill at $7,100.  What impressed me on him he was T-4th and T-8th in his last two starts so he was an easy choice.  After that it got tough, I wanted to pick both Alexander Noren and Bernd Wiesberger but I could only take one so chose Noren.  I then took Martin Kaymer because he plays well at Wentworth and has been very consistent.  This left me with $7,700 and Alexander Levy was $7,700.  He has been ok in his two Wentworth starts and has played great in his last two events finishing T-8th at the Shenzhen International and winning the Volvo China Open.  Yes it’s been a month since his last start but he will be well rested.  Good luck in picking this event, it was probably the hardest one for me this year.



  1. Micahel M says

    Went with Bud Cauley in one and done league. Had Day last week which helped my standings a good deal.

  2. Two long shots to really consider. William Mcgirt and Daniel Summerhays.

  3. Scott H. will go along with McGirt a very good pick, good ball striker and is playing well. You wasting your time with Summerhays, terrible ball striker, doesn’t hit it very straight and a average putter. If you are thinking long shots for DraftKings, can’t get any better than Steve Stricker for the week
    As for Micahel M, Bud Cauley is a good pick because he is playing well right now. He did me fine last week in Nelson, wanted to take him this week but didn’t because he is a averge driver, average putter and has not played that great at Colonial. He was 8 under in 2013 and was T-14th, but there was a reason he didn’t play the course in 2015 & ’16, probably because the course doesn’t suit his game.

  4. I am with you on stricker. Summerhays has made 5 straight cuts….may not win but t-40 last week is a solid event, he plays tough golf courses well, dont forget his top 10 at the US open last year. Also really like Luke list.

  5. Time for Palmer to win at home?

  6. Ryan Palmer and Webb Simpson are two players that are hard to grasp. They are part of a new segment of the PGA Tour, kind of like Charles Howell III has been for years who seem to make a large amount of money and don’t register in fan base because the don’t seem to win. A lot of it is their attitude, when you are making millions of dollars a year, you tend to want to keep status Que and not do the work that a Tiger Woods has do week in and week out to be a great player.
    I am in a way saying these guys are lazy because it’s easy for them to be. For a lot of these players there is more than golf, they have their family and things that are more important to them so being a world beater is not important because you can make millions by average type of play.
    The perfect example is Charles Howell III, who has won over $32 million and won twice, the last time in 2007. Every week you see him sticking around for the weekend and make a check. Look at his season so far
    After missing the cut at Safeway, he has made every cut with four top-tens and earnings of $1.7 million. He has made checks of over $100,000 six times but floats under the radar screen. Look at his year, he played in the Match Play and that was it, didn’t play in the WGC event in Mexico or the Masters. Last year of the eight majors and WGC events he played in none of them. The biggest events he played in this year was the Players and first of two FedExCup playoff events.
    So you can see he makes a lot of money but doesn’t seem to go on the radar because he doesn’t win just like Palmer and Simpson. Funny just look at Brain Harman, we have all heard a lot about him just because he won the Wells Fargo, but in the weeks before his record was touch and go, nothing like Howell, Palmer and Simpson.
    Of course Charles Howell III, Ryan Palmer and Webb Simpson would say I am dead wrong, that they work their butts off to play on the PGA Tour and some of it is true, but in the long run there are about 50 guys that year in and year out have very plain years, are under the radar scope most of the time and make good money (millions) and enjoy a really great life with their families that we have never heard of.

Speak Your Mind

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.