BlogJohn Deere Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

So after last year when the tournament was moved opposite the Olympics in August, the Deere moves back to it’s July date the week before the British Open.  For many this is the last chance to get into the British, but it will take a win.  For many players they are probably very happy that the charter jet is back so that after play on Sunday, will whisk those playing in the British to Manchester so that they can be at Birkdale on Monday afternoon.

As for this tournament, John Deere is probably one of the best sponsors the PGA Tour has, the community loves the event and supports it, even though the marquee names don’t show up.

History of the John Deere

The John Deere Classic was created in 1971. Founded by a businessman in Davenport, Iowa, it began as a satellite PGA event known as the Quad City Open. It stayed in Davenport through 1974, where it subsequently moved to the Oakwood Country Club in Coal Valley, Iowa. The John Deere Classic remained in Coal Valley until 2000, where the move to Silvis coincided with the opening of TPC Deere Run.

The John Deere Classic took center stage in 2005 when Michelle Wie attempted to become the first woman to make a PGA cut since Babe Didrikson Zaharias. After a first round 1-under, Wie found herself in prime position to make the cut. Through 14 holes in round 2, Wie was 3-under for the day, 4-under for the tournament. Her momentum dissipated on Number 15 as she proceeded to severely pull her drive, then from their chip into a bunker and eventually, made double bogey. Wie ended up missing the cut by one shot.

Since 1997, the event has been the week before the British Open were it was always a struggled to get a good field of players.  In 2008 tournament organizers came up with a plan that help attract players.  They made a charter flight available in which players would be able to leave the Sunday after play.  It was a comfortable journey as players enjoy big business class seats with very little hassle in getting to the British Islands, since the plane landed at an airport near the venue of the championship.  The charter has been a big hit and help the tournament land a lot of marquee names.

The tournament began as the Quad Cities Open in 1971 and was a “satellite event” on the PGA Tour. It became an official tour event in 1972. Title sponsors have included Ed McMahon (1974–79), Miller Brewing Company (1982–85), Hardee’s (1986–94) and John Deere (since 1999).

• TPC Deere Run
• Silvis, Il.
• 7,257 yards     Par 35-36–71
• Course rating is 75.6 rating with a slope rating of 145 fron the championship tees. The course is part of a TPC network and is open to outside play.  It also sells local memberships.
• Long before golfers began traveling to TPC Deere Run, native Americans migrated there. They came to this western Illinois location for the bounty of wildlife, the proximity to the Rock River and for the natural beauty of rolling hills and wooded ravines.
• In more recent times, the property became Friendship Farm, one of the top Arabian horse breeding operations in the U.S. As a result, the property was maintained in its most natural beauty and provided a near perfect setting for the property’s destination today, a golf course that appears to have been here for over a 100 years.
• TPC Deere Run boasts a bit of old-time philosophy and feel to the golf course, which stretches to 7,213 yards, an intimidating length for a par-71 track. Some 74 bunkers are strategically placed throughout the course and vary in depth and shape. There are a few blind shots and chipping areas to confound the best players. There are gentle doglegs, requiring precision more than power.
• The natural features of the former horse farm high above the Rock River Valley have not been compromised and the Rock River is visible on nine holes. D.A. Weibring, the course designer, extracted a few trees (less than 20 percent), but he essentially left the property, with its dramatic pitches and rolls, intact. The course inhabits roughly 170 acres, but Weibring and design associate Chris Gray disturbed less than 60 acres during construction.
• Last year the TPC Deere Run was the 39th hardest course (out of 50) on the PGA Tour playing to a 69.90 average.
• In 2015 the TPC Deere Run was the 43rd hardest course (out of 52) on the PGA Tour playing to a 69.648 average.
• In 2014 the TPC Deere Run was the 42nd hardest course (out of 48) on the PGA Tour playing to a 69.764 average.
• In 2013 the TPC Deere Run was the 36th hardest course on the PGA Tour playing to a 69,397.
• So the course is easy, in 2015 1,803 birdies (along with 32 eagles) were made during the week, the 3rd most birdies made on any course on the PGA Tour.  Last year 1,747 birdies and 33 eagles were made.

Let’s take a look at key stats that are important for those playing at TPC Deere Run:

This is based on the most vital stats from TPC Deere Run, based on data from last year’s John Deere and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2016.
The most important thing to realize about TPC Deere Run, is that it’s one of the rare courses on tour that benefits short hitters and those that hit it long have no real advantage, matter of fact those that hit it long have to throttle back a bit because they run out of fairway. The course plays at 7,268 hards but the fairways are always firm and get a lot of role. In a era in which courses have six or more par 4s over 450 yards, Deere Run only has three par 4s over 450 yards. On top of that all three par 5s are accessible in two even for the shorter hitters, so you can see why the winners ranks of late have short hitters like Zach Johnson, Steve Stricker, Sean O’Hair and last year’s champions Ryan Moore winning.
Lot’s of birdies are always made on the course, last year 1,747 were made with only TPC Four Seasons and Waialae seeing more birdies made. The greens are easy to read and do well on them so this course also caters to players who don’t putt very well. Now the tournament is being played back at it’s usual time the week before the British Open so things are back to normal and the course should still be firm and fast..
So in looking at our four categories, we see how much driving makes a difference. But instead of looking for those that hit it long, those that hit it short will at least have as much of a chance as the longer hitter. So it’s a perfect time to look at these strokes gained stats as our first two catagories, first Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee and they Strokes Gained Approach-the-Green. After that Putting average is important because this is a course that is easy to putt, not much undulation in the greens so poor putters have a good chance this week. Last is birdies, those at the top will make a lot of them and it’s a requirement to win. The course is pretty easy, last year with played to an average of 69.90 so a shot and a bit under par. It’s ranked 39th hardest in a field of 50, so you can see that the winner does need to go low. Normally we would say that a non-marquee name will win, but that isn’t the case. In the last nine years we have seen Steve Stricker win three times, Jordan Spieth win twice along with Zach Johnson, Ryan Moore and Kenny Perry so the event has see some marquee champions.

*Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee: Measurements off the tee to see who saves the most strokes with perfect drives on the course compared to the field

*Strokes Gained Approach-the-Green: See who saves the most strokes with the shots into the greens.

*Putting Average: The average number of putts in a round, based on the year.

*Birdies: Players that make the most birdies

The 121 qualifying players from this year’s field with stats from 2017:

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is the link to all of the stats for the 121 players in this year’s John Deere

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the John Deere Classic:

Key stat for the winner:

Hitting lots of greens.  Since the course was first used in 2000, the winners have finished T-5th (Michael Clark II), 4th (David Goosett), 1st (J.P. Hayes), T-5th (Vijay Singh), T-23rd (Mark Hensby), T-2nd (Sean O’Hair) and T-2nd (John Senden) in greens hit showing that if you hit a lot of greens, you will do well.  Yes Jonathan Byrd finished T-25th in 2007 and Kenny Perry finished T-22nd in 2008, Steve Stricker was T-14th in 2009, T-11th in 2010, T-33rd in 2011, Zach Johnson was T26th in 2012 while Jordan Spieth was T34th in 2013 but Brian Harman was T-1st in 2014 with Jordan Spieth finishing T-33rd in 2015.  Last year Ryan Moore was T-1st in greens hit with 60 of 72.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

• A stat that nobody will believe: You would be hard press to know how many top-20 world rank players have won the last 9 John Deere’s?  It’s 7, the only one’s not in the top-20 of the world rankings was Jordan Spieth (120th) in 2013, Brian Harman (115) in 2014 and Ryan Moore last year who was 59th the week of the Deere.
• Even though the fairways aren’t that demanding, for J.P. Hayes (2002),Mark Hensby (2004) and Sean O’Hair (2005) this has proven to help in there victories.  For the rest of the champions since 1997 they all are between 15th and 49th.  In 2010 Stricker was T-18th, hitting 41 of the 56 fairways, while in 2011 he was T-58th hitting just 36 of 56 fairways. Zach Johnson was T-31st with 41 of 56 while in 2013 Spieth was T-19th in greens hit with 43 of 56.  In 2014 Brian Harman was T-8th hitting 45 of 56 fairways, in 2015 Jordan Spieth was 39th of 56 and ranked T-60th.  Last year Ryan Moore was T-10th hitting 46 of 56 fairways.
• Being in the lead after the third round doesn’t guarantee a victory, especially at the John Deere.  Since 1995 only none players won, David Toms in 1997, David Gossett in 2001, J.P. Hayes in 2002,  John Senden in 2006 , Kenny Perry in 2009, Steve Stricker in 2010/2011, Brian Harman in 2014, Spieth in 2015 and Moore last year.  In 2012 Zach Johnson was T-3rd going into the final round, while Jordan Spieth was T9th, six back of third round leader Daniel Summerhays in 2013.   So don’t count on the third round leader to win.
• The myth of the John Deere was always think an underdog or new player that has never won before will win the Deere.  In looking at the winners since the event moved to the TPC course in 2000 between then and 2007 only one true favorite Vijay Singh in 2003 was victorious.  But since the British Open charter went into effect you have marquee names like Kenny Perry in 2008, Steve Stricker in 2009, ’10 & ’11 along with Zach Johnson, Ryan Moore and Jordan Spieth winning.  So you can see how perks like a special charter can really change the outlook of a tournament.
• The tournament has the overall reputation of first time winners.  Since 1973, 20 rookie winners including eight of the last 17 (J.L. Lewis in 1999, Michael Clark in 2000, David Gossett in 2001, Mark Hensby in 2004, Sean O’Hair, John Senden in 2006, Jordan Spieth in 2013 and Brian Harman in 2014) have won the John Deere so even though the event has had proven champions win the last seven years you never know.
• One last important element, the winner this week will be making lot’s of birdies.  The TPC Deere Run gave up 1,676 birdies in 2007, 1,714 in 2008 and in 2009 along with 1,810 in 2010, 1,915 in 2011 (most of any course that year), 1,894 in 2012 (again the most on the PGA Tour in 2012), 1,930 in 2013 and 1,844 in 2014, the most of any course on the PGA Tour in ’14 while in 2015 the course gave up 1,803 birdies.  Last year 1,747 birdies were made  So look for those that have a high birdie average for the year.
• The weather has been off and on in the last month.  Still the Silvis area is looking for some good weather most of the week.  The only iffy day is Thursday as they will have 40% chance of scattered thunderstorms, but the rest of the week it will be very nice.  Also you never know this time of year, there could be pop-up thunderstorms in the afternoon.