TPC Boston Key Fantasy Stats

Dell Technologies Championship

September 1st – 4th, 2017

TPC Boston

Norton, MA

Par: 71 / Yardage: 7,297

Purse: $8.75 million

with $1,575,000 to the winner

Defending Champion:
Rory McIlroy

by Sal Johnson

Founder, Chief Data Officer, GOLFstats

E-mail me at:
sal@golfstats.com

This is based on the most vital stats from TPC Boston, based on data from the 2016 Dell Technologies when the course was last used on the PGA Tour and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2017.

TPC Boston is a Arnold Palmer design that has be reworked by Gil Hanse and Brad Faxon. The course has a touch of links style as it plays firm and fast, but it’s still a course for long hitters as in it’s 14 year history players like Adam Scott, Vijay Singh, Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson, Charley Hoffman, Rory McIlroy and Rickie Fowler have won on it. So with that it tells you something, that all of these players hit it long so TPC Boston is for those that bomb it. On the other end of the spectrum, short hitters like Chris Kirk, Olin Browne, Webb Simpson and Steve Stricker have won, mainly because of their awesome around the green game. Still the focus should be on long hitters and ball strikers having a big advantage. Of the 14 champions, nine of them ranked in the top-ten in greens hit, so if a long hitter is on his game he does have a big advantage. So should you stop reading right now and pick Dustin Johnson? Probably after what he showed last week at Glen Oaks, he is unbeatable when he is driving it straight and long like he is. But that doesn’t mean to hand him the trophy right now, as we saw with Jordan Spieth, good putting could get in the way of Johnson walking away with the title One thing historically about TPC Boston you have never seen a really poor putter win here, the greens are 6,000 square feet and have a lot of undulation in them so look for a player who is in the zone inside of ten feet, like Spieth.
Another aspect of TPC Boston, scores are generally low and the big reason is the par 4s. Last year they averaged 3.97 as only seven courses had easier par 4s. Of the 11 par 4s, five of them play under par and the toughest par 4 is the 6th hole playing at a 4.107 clip which means with all of the holes on the PGA Tour it’s the 253rd hardest of the 900 holes played in 2016. Now on the other realm of the spectrum, the par 5s are some of the toughest on the PGA Tour. Last year they played to a 4.79 scoring average and ranked 11th, while they ranked T-6th on tour in 2015, so they aren’t layups like many other courses.
The good news in past events this time of year in the Boston area, storms off the Atlantic have caused havoc. But not this year, other than some afternoon thunderstorms on Thursday, the rest of the week is going to be perfect with cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid 70s.

So in looking at our four categories, our first is Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. This is going to be the most important item again since a player that hits it long, straight and then hits a lot of greens won’t be beat, just like last week at the Northern Trust when Dustin Johnson was 1st in strokes gained tee-to-green thanks to being T-8th in fairways hit, 2nd in driving distance and T-3rd in greens hit. Last year’s winner Rory McIlroy was 3rd in strokes gained tee-to-green.

Our second stat is strokes Gained around-the-green, because not only is scrambling important but there are a lot of greenside bunkers so getting them up and down will be important. Last year TPC Boston was 44th in scrambling meaning that the field really did well in this stat so players will have to do well in this.
Our third stat is putting inside of 10 feet, yes this will be substantial because the greens have lot’s of undulation so making those putts in between five to ten feet is important. Last year the field ranked 18th in putting inside ten feet. Our fourth category is par 4 average, last year it ranked T-43rd in this stat which means that players need to play the par 4s low to win. Last year Rory McIlroy struggled playing the par 4s in even par.

This is the second leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs, so those toward the bottom need to play well or sit out a month while the playoffs continue. But at TPC Botson, the course will be for the taking of many of the players, and I can see some excellent scoring.

*Strokes Gained tee-to-green: A combination of driving distance, accuracy and greens hit this will tell you who plays the best from tee to green which will be important this week.

*Strokes Gained around-the-green: A combination of sand saves and scrambling to see who gets it up and down saving par the most.

*Putting inside 10 feet: Very easy, counts every putt from ten feet in to see who makes the most.

*Par 4 Average: How players do on par 4s, who plays them the best.

Of the 96 players in the field, 94 have stats on the PGA Tour for 2017.

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Comments

  1. why is Gary Woodland not listed?

  2. Sorry, had a problem because of the name change of the tournament and Woodland doesn’t come up.
    Here are Woodland stats
    Strokes gained tee to green – rank 19th
    Strokes gained around the green – rank 80th
    Putting inside ten feet – rank T183rd
    Par 4 averages – T-89th

  3. Hey Sal,

    You know what grass the greens are?

  4. Tees, Fariways and Greens are Bent. Rough is Kentucky bluegrass, fescue 4.

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