BlogDell Technologies Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

So it’s the second leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs, and four exempt players Henrik Stenson, Brandt Snedeker, J.B. Holmes and Scott Piercy are not participating.  Don’t know about Stenson, but the other three have injuries and can’t play.  A couple of things about the playoffs that are a bit of a turnoff, last week Dustin Johnson won at the Northern Trust.  With the win it guarantees Johnson a top-five points ranking heading into the Tour Championship, meaning that he controls his own destiny and will win the FedEx Cup with a victory at East Lake.  So if Johnson had chosen not to play this week and at the BMW, he would of still been able to win the FedEx Cup at the Tour Championship.  These playoffs are getting more to do with the Tour Championship than anything else, to win the playoffs you just about have to win at East Lake which I don’t understand.

Now honestly Dustin Johnson is very deserving and if he wins the FedEx Cup I have no problem with it.  But in other years like last year when Patrick Reed won at Bethpage, I thought it wrong of him controlling his destiny for the rest of the playoffs.  Reed finished T-5th at the Dell, T-13th at the BMW Championship and T-24th in the Tour Championship and finished 3rd in the cup standings as Rory McIlroy won it.

So the big question should be, if you win the first FedEx Cup event should you automatically be the guy to beat?

May not have that problem next year:

The PGA Tour schedule for January through September has not been released yet and many are wondering if the Dell Technologies will not be around after this year.  Dell signed up for one year and since Deutsche Bank announced not sponsoring this event, the rumors have it that the PGA Tour want to decrease the playoffs to three events with the goal of making this week the last event of the season.  In order to end on Labor Day weekend in 2019 the Tour has to eliminate three events from the January to September portion of the season.  There are several rumors on which event would not be in and the first is that the Greenbrier Classic wouldn’t mind starting the fall swing in mid-September.  Makes some sense, first of all Greenbrier would go from CBS to Golf Channel and it would be a cheaper time slot for them.  So let’s count Greenbrier as gone, that leaves two more spots.  I really think that this will be the last Dell Technologies Championship. Yes the event has been well attended but if you can’t find a sponsor that spells the end.  So that leaves one slot and I think it will be between the Shell Houston Open and the Quicken Loans.  Both lost their sponsors and both will still hold their events in 2018, even without a sponsor.  I really think that the PGA Tour will go through hoops to keep the Houston market, it has been successful all these years and Houston is the 4th biggest city in the country.  As for the Quicken Loans, another problem is that they no longer have the support of Congressional Country Club, who will hold the 2018 event and will not sign on for anymore for the time being.  The club would really like to attract a U.S. Open or a PGA Championship, only problem all of those events have venues through 2026 so it’s going to be a long wait.  So look for the Quicken Loans to be gone after next year.  Again, these are pure speculations on my part, none of this is official.

Tournament information:

• This is the 15th annual Dell Technologies Championship. Initially created with the help of IMG, the Tiger Woods Foundation, and the PGA Tour, the Deutsche Bank Championship’s main goal was to raise money for the Tiger Woods Foundation.
• As the tournament is held over Labor Day weekend, it has the distinction as being the only events on the PGA Tour to conclude on a Monday.
• Though the event lacks history, its short stint on the PGA Tour has produced some monumental happenings. Most notably: the rivalry between Vijay Singh and Tiger Woods. In 2004, Tiger and Vijay battled down to the final hole. Ultimately, Singh’s 69 was enough to give him the tournament title and the World’s Number One ranking, dethroning Woods after five years of dominance.
• In 2006, the rivalry was renewed, and this time, Woods was not to be denied. Singh shot a course record 61 in the third round going into the final round with a three-shot lead over Woods.  Despite shooting a 68, he was still a loser as Woods shot 63 to overcome a three-shot deficit and win the title.
• The 2007 event is also memorable with Phil Mickelson holding off the challenge of Tiger Woods, Arron Oberholser and Brett Wetterich.
• In 2008 Vijay Singh shot a final round 63 and cruised to a five-shot victory which paved the way for him to win the FedEx Cup.
• Last year was another memorable event as Rory McIlroy shot a final round 65 to come back from six shots back to win for the second time at TPC Boston.
• Since the start of the FedEx Cup, it’s been the second playoff event.  Of the four, this and the Tour Championship are the only events played each year on the same course.  Over the years, it’s grown a nice following as players the love the course, the location and the week.  With Deutsche Bank leaving last year the event was able to get Dell Technologies to sponsor this years event, but as we said above either an extension or a new sponsor will need to happen for this event to continue.

Course information:

• TPC Boston
• Norton, Mass.
• 7,342 yards     Par 36-35–71
• The TPC of Boston was opened in June of 2002, it was formerly used for charcoal production for the jewelry, brick and iron industries as well as lumber for ship construction.  Arnold Palmer designed the course, it is your typical TPC layout, very long and pretty generous off the tee.  There are several doglegs that can be carried by long hitters so again advantage to those that hit it long.  The greens are large, and several have multiple tiers making putting more challenging.  But over the years the course has changed dramatically.
• As players matriculate back to Boston each year for the Dell Technologies Championship, they were met with changes made by Gil Hanse and Brad Faxon.  In 2009, changes to the green area and mounding around the 2nd hole.  In 2008 players saw changes to the 4th, 7th and 16th holes.  The changes weren’t as big, mostly cosmetic like mounds being added to the right side of nine.  Also, changes were made to the chipping areas around No. 1 and No. 10 greens. Bunkers also were altered in shape at the fourth and 11th holes. At the latter, a 230-yard par-3, and island of turf was installed in the middle of the large front-right bunker.
• The changes made for the 2007 event was well received by the players, most of them liked making the 4th hole a possible drivable par 4. It’s a step in the right direction because in previous years they have been very luke warm on the Arnold Palmer design course.
• There have been any major changes to the course for this year.  The course has pretty much been the same for a couple of years now.
• Still the course is for the taking, last year the course played to a 70.243 average and was the 30th toughest of the 50 courses used.  So you can see, you have to go low to survive this week.

Let’s take a look at key stats that are important for those playing at TPC Boston:

This is based on the most vital stats from TPC Boston, based on data from the 2016 Dell Technologies when the course was last used on the PGA Tour and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2017.

TPC Boston is a Arnold Palmer design that has be reworked by Gil Hanse and Brad Faxon. The course has a touch of links style as it plays firm and fast, but it’s still a course for long hitters as in it’s 14 year history players like Adam Scott, Vijay Singh, Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson, Charley Hoffman, Rory McIlroy and Rickie Fowler have won on it. So with that it tells you something, that all of these players hit it long so TPC Boston is for those that bomb it. On the other end of the spectrum, short hitters like Chris Kirk, Olin Browne, Webb Simpson and Steve Stricker have won, mainly because of their awesome around the green game. Still the focus should be on long hitters and ball strikers having a big advantage. Of the 14 champions, nine of them ranked in the top-ten in greens hit, so if a long hitter is on his game he does have a big advantage. So should you stop reading right now and pick Dustin Johnson? Probably after what he showed last week at Glen Oaks, he is unbeatable when he is driving it straight and long like he is. But that doesn’t mean to hand him the trophy right now, as we saw with Jordan Spieth, good putting could get in the way of Johnson walking away with the title One thing historically about TPC Boston you have never seen a really poor putter win here, the greens are 6,000 square feet and have a lot of undulation in them so look for a player who is in the zone inside of ten feet, like Spieth.
Another aspect of TPC Boston, scores are generally low and the big reason is the par 4s. Last year they averaged 3.97 as only seven courses had easier par 4s. Of the 11 par 4s, five of them play under par and the toughest par 4 is the 6th hole playing at a 4.107 clip which means with all of the holes on the PGA Tour it’s the 253rd hardest of the 900 holes played in 2016. Now on the other realm of the spectrum, the par 5s are some of the toughest on the PGA Tour. Last year they played to a 4.79 scoring average and ranked 11th, while they ranked T-6th on tour in 2015, so they aren’t layups like many other courses.
The good news in past events this time of year in the Boston area, storms off the Atlantic have caused havoc. But not this year, other than some afternoon thunderstorms on Thursday, the rest of the week is going to be perfect with cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid 70s.

So in looking at our four categories, our first is Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. This is going to be the most important item again since a player that hits it long, straight and then hits a lot of greens won’t be beat, just like last week at the Northern Trust when Dustin Johnson was 1st in strokes gained tee-to-green thanks to being T-8th in fairways hit, 2nd in driving distance and T-3rd in greens hit. Last year’s winner Rory McIlroy was 3rd in strokes gained tee-to-green.

Our second stat is strokes Gained around-the-green, because not only is scrambling important but there are a lot of greenside bunkers so getting them up and down will be important. Last year TPC Boston was 44th in scrambling meaning that the field really did well in this stat so players will have to do well in this.
Our third stat is putting inside of 10 feet, yes this will be substantial because the greens have lot’s of undulation so making those putts in between five to ten feet is important. Last year the field ranked 18th in putting inside ten feet. Our fourth category is par 4 average, last year it ranked T-43rd in this stat which means that players need to play the par 4s low to win. Last year Rory McIlroy struggled playing the par 4s in even par.

This is the second leg of the FedEx Cup playoffs, so those toward the bottom need to play well or sit out a month while the playoffs continue. But at TPC Botson, the course will be for the taking of many of the players, and I can see some excellent scoring.

*Strokes Gained tee-to-green: A combination of driving distance, accuracy and greens hit this will tell you who plays the best from tee to green which will be important this week.

*Strokes Gained around-the-green: A combination of sand saves and scrambling to see who gets it up and down saving par the most.

*Putting inside 10 feet: Very easy, counts every putt from ten feet in to see who makes the most.

*Par 4 Average: How players do on par 4s, who plays them the best.

Of the 96 players in the field, 94 have stats on the PGA Tour for 2017.

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is the link to the other of the 94 players that have PGA Tour stats for 2017

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the Dell Technologies Championship:

Key stats for the winner:

• Now in past years it was obvious that this course was a long hitters haven.  Last year we had Rory McIlroy and in 2015 we had Rickie Fowler win, both players hit it long.  In 2014 & ’13 Chris Kirk and Henrik Stenson won, both who are in the middle of all driving distance stats but in 2012, we had Rory McIlroy, in 2010 we had Charley Hoffman.  In 2008, it was Vijay Singh while in 2007, it was Phil Mickelson and Tiger Woods in 2006, all very long hitters  Still don’t rule out the short hitters, just look at 2009 winner Steve Stricker, the same with Webb Simpson in 2011.  But he isn’t the only one, the 2005 champion Olin Browne is one of the shorter hitters on tour and 2003 runner-up Rocco Mediate is also short.  In the same breath, it’s safe to say that accuracy doesn’t pay on this course.  In it’s 14 years of being played, of the 188 players that have finished in the top-ten of the tournament, only 42 have been in the top-ten in driving accuracy.  One more key driving accuracy stat, of the 50 courses used on the PGA Tour it ranked 38th in driving accuracy that means that you can be wild on this course.  Or to put it another way, this has become a bombers course.
• Looking at the stats from its 14-year history, look for those with sharp iron games to produce the best score.  Look for a smart player that doesn’t attack the holes but plays placement golf to win.  Of the 14 winners, three led the greens hit category (winner Henrik Stenson led in 2013) while the first eight of nine winners were in the top-ten.  Last year McIlroy was T-18th in greens hit.
• Since the event doesn’t start until Friday, players will have an extra day to get use to the course.  Look for those that are starting to practice on Tuesday to rule the roost.
• The greens are 6,000 square feet, which is about average on the PGA Tour. They have a lot of undulation in them, and that could be one of the reasons why winners haven’t dominated the putting stats.
• Looking for that one stat that jumps up and grabs you?  Par 4 average is the key here, TPC Boston is one of the easiest in par 4s.  Last year it was T-43rd with a 3.97 average on it’s par 4s so look for players that play well on par 4s.  Last year Rory McIlroy was even par, in 2015 Rickie Fowler was 9 under, Chris Kirk was 6 under on the Par 4s, in 2013 Henrik Stenson was the best playing them in 14 under par.
• Interesting to note that Vijay Singh, Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy won the Dell Technologies the month after taking the PGA Championship.  It’s also interesting to note that Dell Technologies winners Woods, Singh and Adam Scott have also been runner-up here.  As for this year’s PGA Champion Justin Thomas, you have to think he is chomping at the bit for Friday’s opening round.
• Scrambling is a very important stat and one to look at.  Here is the rank of Dell Technologies Championship winners between 2007-2014.
•  Year Winner Scrambling (rank)
•  2016 Rory McIlroy 63.16% (41st)
•  2015 Rickie Fowler 78.95% (1st)
•  2014 Chris Kirk         80.77% (4)
•  2013 Henrik Stenson 81.82% (T-6)
•  2012 Rory McIlroy 70.83% (10)
•  2011 Webb Simpson 76.00% (5)
•  2010 Charley Hoffman  82.35% (2)
•  2009 Steve Stricker 73.91% (10)
•  2008 Vijay Singh         76.92% (4)
•  2007 Phil Mickelson 86.36% (1)

Every winner in the playoff era finished in the top 10 in scrambling at TPC Boston except for last year’s winner Rory McIlroy.

Lastly, Weather can sometimes be a problem with storm systems coming up the Atlantic.  But this year is good, other than some afternoon thunderstorms on Thursday, the rest of the week is going to be perfect with cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid 70s.