BlogHSBC Champions Preview, Picks

The Buzz:

The end of the Asian Tour comes this week and the field is a bit weak.  We all know why Rory McIlroy isn’t here, but for Sergio Garcia who won last week in Spain, you would of thought he would make the trip.  He has some good experiences at Shenzhen, winning back in 2009 but he didn’t want to make the trip.  Also a bit disappointed that Justin Thomas didn’t make the trip, after his win in Korea he said that he is beat and won’t be playing until the Hero Challenge in December.  Also disappointed that Jordan Spieth and Rickie Fowler took a pass, Spieth will be playing in Australia next month and Fowler just didn’t want to make the trip halfway around the world.

The field is good, world number one Dustin Johnson is back along with Hideki Matsuyama, Jon Rahm, Jason Day, Henrik Stenson and U.S. Open champion Brooks Koepka who hasn’t contend in a tournament since winning the Open back in June.

Players to watch

Yes the hottest player on the planet Justin Thomas isn’t playing, but there are some top players in the field this week.  First have to look at Tyrrell Hatton who has won the last two events he played in the Italian Open and Dunhill Links.  Also Marc Leishman is playing well, he came within one back shot of winning in Korea when he lost a playoff to Justin Thomas.  Another good pick is Ross Fisher, while Hatton won at the Italian Open and Dunhill Links, Fisher was 2nd in both of those events.  Looking for a good Asian choice, Kiradech Aphibarnrat was T-2nd at the Italian Open.  Looking for a good longshot, Phil Mickelson played great in the Presidents Cup and was T-6th at the Dell Technologies, T-20th at the BMW Championship and was T-3rd at the Safeway Open so he comes to China on a roll.

Tournament Information:

This event started in 2006 and played at Sheshan Golf Club.  Because of the big purse and the event giving out appearance money, most of the top players of the time including Tiger Woods played.  Tiger came close finishing second in it’s first year as David Howell won by three shots.  The event was part of the European Tour and despite being played in November was the leadoff event for the European Tour’s wrap-around season.  So the first event was played in November of 2005 but counted for the European Tour’s 2006 season.  It continued to grow for the next three years as more marquee names went to China and in November of 2008 the European Tour started it’s 2009 season with Sergio Garcia winning.  Right after the tournament, it became part of the World Golf Championship series, which help elevate it.  At the same time, the European Tour revamped the way they ended their season, so the event in November of 2009 was included in the 2009 European Tour season.  This created the problem of the same event being played twice in the same season.  Phil Mickelson won the November 2009 HSBC and despite the PGA Tour being part of the WGC was not considered an official PGA Tour event.

The tournament went on a bizarre three-year journey.  Beginning in 2010, the HSBC Champions counted as an official PGA Tour victory and offered a three-year exemption on the PGA Tour, provided the tournament was won by a PGA Tour member. Prize money, however, did not count toward the official PGA TOUR money list, even if a PGA Tour member won the tournament. Tournament winners during this timeframe include: 2010 – Francesco Molinari (unofficial PGA Tour win); 2011 – Martin Kaymer (unofficial PGA Tour win); 2012 – Ian Poulter (official PGA Tour win).

On the final day of the 2012 event, HSBC announced renewal of its title sponsorship, something it did renewing in 2015.  With this announcement the HSBC became part of the PGA Tour’s FedExCup schedule.  It awarded official money and FedExCup points (and a three-year exemption) beginning in 2013 (which later changed to 2014 because the Tour went to a wrap-around schedule for events ending in 2013).  Sound confusing, it is so you just have to remember one thing.  The first “official” WGC-HSBC for the PGA Tour was the one played in November of 2013, but it counted for the 2014 PGA Tour season.  So this week’s event counts on the 2018 PGA Tour season and the 2017 European Tour season.  This year it won’t be a part of the final series, it was dropped because the top players on the Race to Dubai couldn’t get in so the tour realized that it favored the top stars.

Course information: 

The Sheshan Golf Club is a par-72 golf course that was designed by Robin Nelson and Neil Haworth and opened in 2004. Not long after its opening, Tiger Woods praised the layout as “the crowning jewel of all of Asian golf.” To create the layout’s drastic elevation changes, work crews reportedly moved more than 2 million cubic yards of earth.  Sheshan International Golf Club features beautiful tree-lined fairways and gentle rolling hills around 1000-year-old Gingko trees, calm waterways, and a spectacular natural quarry. Set in the shadow of the Basilica of our Lady of Sheshan Cathedral and surrounded by beautiful Italian Tuscan inspired villas, Sheshan provides a truly unique experience.  Although located in the city of Shanghai, the serene surroundings suggest a genuine feeling of seclusion and nature.

Featuring well-placed bunkers throughout the golf course along with, deep collection areas, beautiful water features, and undulating greens.  The natural forestation was integrated into the course design. 10,000 trees and natural foliage has been preserved. Two 1000-year-old ginko trees grace the 4th hole. 16 million cubic meters of dirt was moved to create elevation, bunkers and valleys. Sheshan provides a beautiful and challenging golf course for all, including the best Tour Professionals in the world and is considered one of the best courses in China.

Let’s take a look at key stats that are important for those playing at Sheshan Golf Club:

This is based on the most vital stats from Sheshan International based on data from last year’s WGC-HSBC Champions and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2017.
This is the 13th time that the WGC-HSBC Champions is being played at Sheshan International since 2006. The event was on the European and Asian Tour when first started in 2006 and was played twice in 2009. In 2012 the PGA Tour stepped in and sactioned sanctioned the event in which the win was given to Ian Poulter, but his earnings wasn’t official and they didn’t award FedEx Cup points. The next year the event became a full blow World Golf Championship event in which points and money were official. Since the event is played in China it doesn’t have true Shotlink stats to work with, they don’t even measure driving distance so we are stuck with the old-fashion stats of fairways and greens hit, scrambling, number of putts, birdies and eagles made.
So we have to look at some of the simple stats to determine what is important, what kind of skills does it take to win at Sheshan International. Even with players like Dustin Johnson, Bubba Watson and even Phil Mickelson winning there is a though that bombers rule, but that isn’t true when you see that players like Russell Knox, Y.E. Yang and Ian Poulter don’t hit it long. Last year Hideki Matsuyama won and yes he ranked 26th in driving distance on tour in 2017 but he won last year’s WGC-HSBC because of his putting, he had the lowest totals of anyone in the field. Of course we can easily say that his shotmaking wasn’t that keen, he was T-43rd in fairways hit and T-10th in greens hit, but if that was true Matsuyama would of been one of the leaders in scrambling and he wasn’t, ranking T-9th. He also was 4th in one-putts, so it wasn’t the case of him scrambling to victory, he did it takes to his putter which at time isn’t very strong. But in looking at the field, of the ten that finished in the top-ten, four of them were in the top-ten as the course was T-35th in putting average which meant that lot’s of putts were made on a course that has some of the best kept greens on tour. Now is hitting greens important? Yes and no, it ranked 26th as hitting fairways wasn’t that important as the course ranked 16th. Scrambling was important, it ranked 12th. The course has a good shared of birdies and eagles made, it ranked 29th in par breakers. Now the one thing that the course shows is that it’s par 5s are hard to play, last year it had the 5th hardest par 5s on tour as the 78 players averaged the courses four par 5s in 3 under for the week. Matsuyama shined in this stat as he was not only 11 under on the par 5s, but also 12 under on the par 4s, some of the reasons he won by seven shots.
The course is no push over, the par 72 course averaged 71.90 making it the 25th hardest course on tour in 2017.

So what can we look at historically to help us find players that should do well this week? Hard to point out so we are going to pick strokes gained for our top-3 categories. The first one is Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green because it helps to drive it long and straight and hit lot’s of greens. These are all traits in helping one make lot’s of birdies and eagles. Next up we pick strokes gained around the green because not only scrambling but Sand saves are important on the greens that are missed from the fairway. Our third category that is important is putting, so we have picked strokes gained putting. Last is par breakers as we pointed out making birdies and eagles is always important in winning events

Just like the other two Asian Tour events, there is a good share of Asian Tour players along with seven Chinese entrants led by Li Haotong, who finished 3rd at the British Open, closing on Sunday with a 63 at Royal Birkdale. Also a good share of European Tour players are in the field, so of the 78 in the field only 32 of them have stats from the PGA Tour in 2017.

*Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green: Looks at the combination of length off the tee and accuracy, then getting the ball on the green so it determines who is best at all of these items.

*Strokes Gained Around-the-Green: Looks at the combination of gaining strokes by getting up and down after missing a green.

*Strokes Gained Putting: The number of putts a player takes from a specific distance is measured against a statistical baseline to determine the player’s strokes gained or lost on a hole.

*Par Breakers: Combination of birdies and eagles made to show under par totals

32 of the 78 Players from this year’s field with stats from 2017

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is the link to the other 22 of the 32 players and their PGA Tour stats for 2017.

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the WGC-HSBC Champions:

Key stat for the winner:

Event will be played again at Sheshan after being played in 2012 at Mission Hills.  In the previous years held at Sheshan, there is no one stat that you can put your fingers on and say, geez this course favors such and such a player.  So we have to look at those that have played well before at Sheshan, one thing pops up.Bubba Watson had a great 2014 and five months after his China victory won the Masters in 2016.  Dustin Johnson and Ian Poulter were also very succesful before and after.  The same with 2016 champion Russell Knox, he won again on the PGA Tour over the summer.  Last year Hideki Matsuyama won in China and after that won on the Japan Tour at the Taiheiyo Masters, then in his next start won the Hero World Challenge.  He started in 2017 with a early win at the Waste Management Phoenix Open and won again at a World Golf Championship when he won the Bridgestone Invitational.

All the other champions also had the same thing going.  Look at Martin Kaymer in 2011, he had been playing well for two years, winning the PGA Championship.  In 2010, Francesco Molinari was putting the finishes touch on a great year, same with winners Phil Mickelson and Sergio Garcia.  So look for a player that has had a great 2013 to win this week.  So in a way the course favors a top notch player, someone that has won big events including other WGC events and majors.  The point is don’t be surprise to see either Dustin Johnson, Tyrrell Hatton or a Marc Leishman do well.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

One thing that is for certain, look for a high ranked player to win.  The lowest-ranked player in the Official World Golf Ranking to win the HSBC Champions was Y.E. Yang, who was No. 77 when he won the event in 2006.  Here is a look at the HSBC champions over the years and how they ranked in the world rankings prior to victory:

• 2016, Hideki Matsuyama, No. 6th
• 2015, Russell Knox, No. 65
• 2014, Bubba Watson, No. 7
• 2013, Dustin Johnson, No. 23
• 2012, Ian Poulter, No. 26
• 2011, Martin Kaymer No. 6
• 2010, Francesco Molinari No. 30
• 2009, Phil Mickelson No. 2
• 2008, Sergio Garcia No. 3
• 2007, Phil Mickelson No. 2
• 2006, Y.E. Yang No. 77
• 2005, David Howell No. 19

Very interesting to see how Sheshan compared with the other courses on the PGA Tour last year.  In driving accuracy it ranked 16th, in green in regulation was 26 hardest course.  In scrambling it was 12th while in overal putting average it ranked 32nd.  The course had a 71.90 scoring average which ranked T-25th but also meant the players averaged just around par so the course is not a pushover.

• With tight fairways and lot’s of roll in them, accuracy is important but not a big key.  The more important factor in looking at past years is a player that can dominate the par 3s. It’s also interesting to note that last seven champions at Sheshan (not including 2012 when it was played at Missing Hills) have had problems on the par 3s, in 2017 Hideki Matsuyama was even par, in 2016 Russell Knox was 2 under, in 2015 Bubba Watson was even par, 2014 Dustin Johnson was 4 under, 2011 Martin Kaymer was 5 under, Francisco Molinari was even par in 2010 and Phil Mickelson was 1 under in 2009.
• Last week in Korea the weather was good but very windy over the weekend.  Things will be warmer in China this week with it in the low 70s each day but the good thing is that it will be dry all week.
• Again like we say, look for the player with the hot hand.  Those that have played well the last three weeks could play well this week and win.