BlogMayakoba Preview and Picks

The Buzz:

Can you believe it, we have had six events in 2018 and only two first time winner, Ryan Armour at the Sanderson Farms and Patrick Cantlay last week in Las Vegas.  At this time in 2016 there was five first time PGA Tour winners.  Just goes to show that anything can happen on the PGA Tour.

More on Patrick Cantlay

Talking about 2016, last year at this time going into the Mayakoba Patrick Cantlay was 1,871 in the Official World Golf Rankings and he was getting ready to make his comeback on the PGA Tour.  The last time he played was in November of 2015 at the OHL Classic at Mayakoba, he finished dead last, 76th after rounds of 71-68-76-74.

Cantlay was one of those “can’t miss” type of players.  As a freshman at UCLA he was considered the best college player in the country, winning both the Haskins and Nicklaus awards.  In 2011 he finished T-21st and the next week playing at the Travelers shot a 60 in the 2nd round and went on to finish T-24th.  The next year he played in three events as an amateur, finishing T-47th at the Masters and then T-41st at the U.S. Open.  He turned pro right after and struggled a bit, in the PGA Tour qualifying school that year he finished T-95th and got his Web.Com Tour for 2013.  After a year on that tour, finished 2nd at the Hotel Fitness Championship and he was able to earn his PGA Tour card for 2014.  But he had a problem that came up earlier in the year when he played at Colonial.  Warming up on the range before the 2nd round, he swung and felt a pain in his back as if someone had stuck a knive in him.  He played seven holes and withdrew, the next week he was diagnosed with a stress fracture in his L5 Vertebrae.  At the time he was 5th on the money list on the Web.Com tour money list thanks in part to winning the Colombia Championship but was forced to shut it down for three months.  After that he felt he had to continue playing, the regular Web.Com tour had ended and he had dropped to 11th on the priority rankings and entered the Web.Com Tour playoffs.  Still in pain he missed his first two cuts before finishing 2nd at the Hotel Fitness.  After that he didn’t play again for seven months.  When he returned at the Byron Nelson his back was still not right and after missing the cut at the 2014 Wyndham he again shut it down only playing competitively once when he tried sectional qualifying for the U.S. Open that was held at Chambers Bay.  Still the back didn’t feel right.

He took the rest of 2015 off with the goal of playing in the 2016 CareerBuilder Challenge in Palm Springs.  He worked hard to get ready but a week before he was going to play, he back started getting sore and now he had pain shutting down his legs.  Not only was he not able to play in the California desert, but was advised to not play for another 10 months.  The low point came a month later when he was hitting some bars with his best friend and caddie Chris Roth. While crossing an intersection in Newport Beach, Roth was hit less than ten feet from him.  Cantlay couldn’t do anything, Roth died in his arms.  For months after he grieved the loss of his friend and was in a deep depression.  In the months after he traveled around the country and even to Germany to try and find a doctor that could help him.  In Germany he received the same kind of Regenokine blood-spinning treatment that Basketball star Kobe Bryant got and between that, plenty of rest and added a workout regimen to his daily routine, not to bulk up but to strengthen his core muscles, using simple exercises with lots of reps to keep his back in shape.  Last year at this time, Cantlay started working on his golf game, making adjustments to his swing to take pressure off his back.

Cantlay made his first start at the AT&T Pebble Beach.  On his first hole back after not playing competitively for 25 months he birdied his first hole, possibly a sign of good things ahead.  He finished T-48th at Pebble and had a good feeling.  A month later in his next start he finished 2nd at the Valspar Championship which gave him back his full time PGA Tour card.  His next start he finished T-39th at the Shell Houston Open and with a T-3rd at the RBC Heritage it opened up a lot of doors.  He was able to play in the Players Championship and them the Memorial and even though he played a very limited schedule he played in his first major at the PGA Championship.  He finished T-33rd that started a nice little streak for him.  Playing in the FedExCup playoffs he was T-10th at the Northern Trust, T- Northentrust, T-3th at the Dell Technologies and with a T-9th finish at the BMW Championship moved up to 29th in the rankings and was able to play in the Tour Championship.  He finished T-20th at East Lake and ended a great year, playing in just 13 events and not missing a single cut.  He was in the top-ten, four times, finished 29th in the FedEx Cup race and earned just over $2 million dollars.

Cantlay got his 2018 season off to a good start when he finished T-15th in the WGC-HSBC Champions and then with a final round 67 got into a three man playoff in Las Vegas.  He made a scrambling par on the second extra hole to defeat Alex Cejka and Whee Kim in the playoff for his first PGA Tour title.

With the win it completed his comeback.  He is now 42nd in the World Ranking and thanks to the win will be able to play in just about any event he wants to play in 2018.  Now that Cantlay has become a PGA Tour champion, he embarks on a new journey and that is to become number one player in the world, this time as a professional.  As he told the media after his win, “I want to be the best player in the world, and I want to win a bunch of tournaments. I feel like if that’s not what you’re out here for, you shouldn’t be out here.”

Another first timer finishes in the top-ten

Last week we told you the story of Scott Strohmeyer, the former Auburn star who playing in his first PGA Tour event last week at the Sanderson Farms finished T-4th.  Just like that Strohmeyer got some star treatment, his finish got him a start in the Hospitals for Children Open.  But it seemed the moment he teed off it was like the clock striking midnight for Cinderella.  Strohmeyer started his round par, double bogey, bogey and shooting 74-74 to miss the cut.  So just like that it’s back to Monday qualifying for Strohmeyer, who has no status on any tour for this year.

But another player took his place as Cinderella in Las Vegas, A.J. McInerney.  He grew up in Las Vegas and was the captain of the UNLV golf team.  He received a finance degree in 2016 and turned professional.  He made it through all stages of Web.Com Q-School and finished T-6th in the final qualifying and got a Web.Com Tour card.  He played in 21 events, making 11 cuts and his best finish was T-11th at the Pinnacle Bank Championship.  The bad news is that he finished 97th on the money list which meant another trip to Q-school.  Life took an scary route for him as he and his girlfriend Alyssa Martine attended the Route 91 Harvest Musical Festival and they were 40 yards from the stage when bullets started raining down on the crowd.  McInerney shielded Martine and then led a group of other concert goers to safety.  A month later Shriners Hospitals tournament director Patrick Lindsey called McInerney and told him he was going to get a sponsor exemption to play in his first PGA Tour event.

McInerney got off to a good start in windy conditions, shooting rounds of 72-71 to make the cut.  On Saturday he played his first nine in 4 under and finished with a 70 to start the final round T-18th and seven shots back.  McInerney started Sunday slowly with a two over par 37, but got hot on the back nine birding six of the nine holes for a 30 and a 67.  He finished just 3 shots back of the playoff and with his T-10th finish, finished T-10th.  The finish got him another start on the PGA Tour at the OHL Classic at Mayakoba, but had to make a difficult decision to turn it down.  That’s because he will be playing starting on Thursday in second stage Q-School on the Web.Com Tour at TPC Craig Ranch.  The decision was easy, either play in Mexico which meant he couldn’t regain his Web.Com tour card.  The consolation, McInerey earned $1 Mutineer earned $150,733 for his finish in the Shriners, not only his biggest check as a professional, but a lot more than the $45,316 he earned in 21 events on the Web.Com Tour in 2017.  McInerey had a big celebration dinner on Sunday with 25 friends and family and told them he was happy to make Vegas proud and was looking forward to his career in golf.

So who to watch at Mayakoba?

Unfortunately Patrick Cantlay isn’t in the field at Mayakoba, but the hottest player on the PGA Tour Chesson Hadley.  In three 2018 starts he has finished T-4th, 2nd and T-3rd finishing a shot from the playoff in Vegas.  In Mississippi he was 2nd five shots back of winner Ryan Armour and in Safeway was three back of winner Brendan Steele.  In his last four starts in 2017 he was 10th at Nationwide Children’s Hospital, won the Albertsons Boise Open, was T-2nd at the DAP Championship and T-46 at the Web.Com Tour Championship.  So in his last 30 rounds he is 72 under par and is returning to the OLH for the first time since missing the cut in 2014.

Another player to watch is Pat Perez, remember he won this tournament last year and comes into the event after winning the CIMB, finishing T-5th at the CJ CUp and T-24th at the WGC-HSBC.  Some may worry that he could be getting a bit tired, since he has been in the top-25 in his last seven starts.  But I see him having another good week as he continues his great run of golf.

Also watch Whee Kim, he lost the playoff in Vegas and was 4th in his previous start in Korea.  Kim ended his 2017 season on a bummer, only making a check in one of this last seven starts and did finish T-54th at Safeway and T-39th at the CIMB Classic, so he could also have some good golf ahead of him.

Still also like Anirban Lahiri, he was T-51st in Vegas after three top-tens in a row before that.  In his last four starts Lahiri is 29 under par.

Last but not least watch these two players. Patton Kizzire was T-4th in Vegas and T-10th in Mississippi and Beau Hossler was T-7th in Vegas and T-10t in Mississippi.

Course information:

El Camaleon was built by Greg Norman and opened in 2004. The course wines through three distinct landscapes tropical jungle, dense mangroves and sand-lined oceanfront. The design even incorporates a cenote – an underground cavern common to the area – into the heart of the first fairway. The PGA Tour made its first stop in 2007, spending six years opposite the World Golf Championships-Accenture Match Play Championship until getting its own fall date this year. In 2016, El Camaleón will serve as one of two hosts for the World Amateur Team Championships.

Located 45 minutes south of Cancun, in the heart of the Riviera Maya, Camaleon is aptly named for its diverse layout and ever changing landscape, always in total harmony with the region’s natural beauty.

For those that think that this is a resort course and is a pushover, that’s not the case.  The last time the Tour played there last year the course played under par at 69.61 and was ranked 41st.  In 2016 it played 70.02 and was ranked 35th.  In 2015 the course played to a 69.95 average and was ranked 38th while in 2014 it played to a 70.019 and ranked 39th toughest.  Now that is quite a drop and shows what happens when the wind blows in off the Gulf of Mexico.  Last year the winds were down with mild conditions, that is why we had a easy scoring average.  But in February of 2012 the course played over par at 71.65 and ranked 17th toughest, so it’s not a pushover.

So what will the field be challenge by?  Conditions of wind on holes that get close to the sea, the par 3 7th and 15th are on the beach.  Course water hazards comes into play on six of the holes and there are 36 bunkers to avoid.  The greens average 7,000 square feet with the grass being a special blend called Sea Isle 1 Paspalum which is unique because you can use a seawater blend in irrigating the fairways, tees and greens.  The course has a rating of 73.8 from the back tees with a slope of 137.

In looking at long range forecasts the weather is suppose to be ok with partly cloudy skies every day and winds coming out of the east between 7 and 11mph.  Temperatures will be good averaging around 85 each day.  There is a good chance of thunderstorms on Sunday, other than that it should be ok.

Let’s take a look at key stats that are important for those playing at El Camaleon:

This is based on the most vital stats from El Camaleon based on data from last year’s OHL Classic at Mayakoba and using data from all the players in the field with stats from 2018.
This is the 11th year that the OHL Classic at Mayakoba is being played at El Camaleon. With it played in Mexico, we don’t have true Shotlink stats to work with, so we are stuck with the old-fashion stats of fairways hit, driving distance, greens hit, scrambling, number of putts, birdies and eagles made. The one thing to understand about this week, last year El Camaleon played to a 69.61 average which was a shot and a half under par as only nine other courses on the PGA Tour were easier in 2017, with only four of those courses having full field events on a single course held on them.
So the course is very easy, it ranked 42nd in fairways hit and 9th in driving distance, meaning that players hit it long on this course. But that doesn’t mean you have to be a bomber to win this event. Graeme McDowell, who won in 2016 and Pat Perez who won last year aren’t considered bombers, matter of fact most of the ten past winners with the exception of Charley Hoffman and Harris English aren’t long, so you can’t call El Camaleon a bombers delight.

So what can we look at historically to help us find players that should do well this week? Looking at the field from last year, all of them hit six and a half out of ten fairways, a very high percentage. They also hit lot’s of greens, just under 7 of 10. Of the greens that they missed they got it up and down 6 out of every 10 tries and averaged 28.66 putts per round. So it’s easy to see how each of the players in the field averaged 4.15 birdies per round and either made birdie or eagle on a quarter of the holes that they played. So frankly for the average pro, El Camaleon is a lay up.

In looking at the 22 players that have finished 5th or better in the last four Mayakoba’s, the trend is that driving the ball is not important. Of the 22 players, only seven players finished the week in the top-ten in fairways hit and on four players finished in the top-ten in driving distance. Now of those same 22 players, ten of them were in the top-ten of greens hit, with two players leading those stat. Of the 22 players, nine of the players finished in the top-ten in putts per round. Also looking at the 22 players, they averaged playing the par 3s in 3 under, the par 4s in 6 under and the par 5s in 8 under. The 22 players average making 22 birdies so you can see it’s very important to play the par 5s well and make lot’s of birdies.
In looking at last year’s winner Pat Perez, he was 19th in driving distance and T-49th in fairways hit so that holds up with our thoughts that driving is meaningless at El Camaleon. Now he was T-11th in greens hit, T-9th in scrambling and T-8th in putts per round. Going a step further, Perez didn’t have any 3-putts and was T-8th in one-putts, showing that around the greens and on the greens was important in his win. On the par 3s, he played them in 4 under, the best of the week was Graeme McDowell at 9 under. Were Perez excel on was the par 4s and par 5s. He was 8 under on the par 4s, the best was Zac Blair at 9 under but he was just 1 under on the par 5s. Meanwhile Perez was 9 under on the par 5s, three players were 11 under on them and the best was Russell Knox who played the par 4s in 4 under. Perez make 23 birdies (and one eagle), the best was 3 players making 26 birdies but with no eagles.

So in looking at our four categories, we are going to bring a premium on around and on the green. So we pick Putts per round as our first category, now the only reason we aren’t picking strokes gained putting, but since we are looking at 2018 stats of the five events being played, only two had complete stats so we are going to avoid strokes gained for this week and next week. Our next important stat is greens hit, again that is a stat that is important for El Camaleon. Our third important stat is par breakers, again making lot’s of eagles and birdies is important. Last we are going to look at Par 4 leaders since this was an important stat for those on top of the leaderboard.

One last thing to watch for is players that did well last year and be sure not to forget about Web.Com tour players. Yes Ryan Armour who won the Sanderson didn’t have a good 2017, but he did finish up strongly which has carried over. But of the other winners, they had good 2017s.

*Putts per round: A look at who has the less amount of putts on the green, per round. On some courses this is a bit deceiving since scrambling and greens hit knocks the importance of number of putts, but on this course number of putts does mean something.

*Greens in Regulation: Who hits the most greens during the week.

*Par Breakers: A combination of eagles and birdies made during the week to see who has the most.

*Par 4 leaders: A look at who plays the par 4s the most for the week.

115 of the 132 Players from this year’s field with stats from 2018

Click any column title in the table header to sort columns.

Here is the link to the other 105 of 132 players in the OHL Classic at Mayakoba

Here are some of the secrets of what it takes to play well at the OHL Mayakoba Classic:

Key stat for the winner:

In a tournament that has a history of younger players participating, older more experience players have done well.  One historic oddity is the fact that eight of the ten past winners were over 30 with all the average winners just a month short of being 35. The first winner Fred Funk was 2 months short of his 51st birthday and last year’s winner Pat Perez was 40 years old. So old may be something to look for this week.

Here are some more key stats to look to for this week:

Tournament has had limited stats, in 2012 John Huh led the greens hit category missing only 13 of the 72 greens. while 2014 winner Harris English was T-10th hitting 55 of 72 greens.  In 2015 Charley Hoffman hit 56 of 72 greens and ranked 4th while in 2016 Graeme McDowell hit 51 of 72 greens, was ranked T-30th and last year Pat Perez hit 55 of 72 greens and ranked T-11th.  So I would say players and winners tend to hit lot’s of greens at El Camaleon.  One other oddity that I noticed of the winners, they did very well on the par 3s, In 2014 English played them in 9 under, Hoffman played them in 3 under, in 2016 McDowell played them in 5 under while Pat Perez was 9 under on them last year.